BJ problem Help!!!!!

Hello fellow players,
Wassup?!??!
I need your help to solve this problem I have with Blackjack,
My starting bankroll is $200
Hands played x hour 100
Hours of playing 1 hs
Flat betting $6
Payout 69.39%
Strategy perfect basic strategy

Would u please tell me the formula with an example on how to calculate the expected win and the expected loss x 1 hour of game playing based on the requirements above? Would also tell me the formula on how to calculate the house edge with the payout of 69.39%?

I hope I can get the master Wizard to solve this one out!!!!!!!!...:-)

Thank u so much!!!!!!!!

welcome to the site

I for one do not know what you mean by a 'payout' of 69.39% ... hopefully that does not mean the same thing as 'return'. If it does, the HE is over 30%.

Hey MGBJK, welcome to the forums. I might not be the Wizard, but I do believe I can handle your inquiry =).

I assume payout of 69.39% is what you ended up with at the end, so you were down? This has nothing to do with the house edge and more to do with your standard deviations. The house edge might only be .5%, and with just basic strategy your Expected Value (EV) will be negative, plus or minus X for your standard deviation. This is the variance (luck) factor in the game and in the short run (any 1 given night - this fades for card counters as they get a larger sampling size over time, also referred to as N0 or 'the long run').

We can't calculate the house edge of the game because you have not given us the rules! Whether the dealer hits on soft 17 or stands has a big impact, the number of decks, re-splitting aces, the number of hands you split to, can you double on any 2, can you double after split, etc, etc. I invite you to visit the Wizards house edge calculator page, plug in the rules of the game, and then you'll know the house edge.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/

Once you know the house edge, finding your EV is pretty simple... EV = TotalWagered*HouseEdge = (NumHands*AvgBet)*HouseEdge

So in your example, your NumHands would be 100 (for 1 hour of play). Your AvgBet would be $6 because you're flat betting. Let's assume a "generic" house edge of .5% so I can give you an actual example... So what's your EV for 1 hour of play? Simple...

EV = (100*6)*(-.005) = -3.

So after 1 hour of play you'd expect to lose $3. This doesn't mean you cry cheater if you lose $100 though. Remember you can't forget about variance. You need to know the realm of possibility.

The calculated Original Standard Deviation for any one hand of blackjack (done by mathematicians smarter than us) is 1.15.
We already established your average bet is $6.

Standard Deviation for 1 hand = OriginalSD = 1.1*AvgBet = $6.60

Standard Deviation for anything past 1 hand = Sqrt(NumHands) * OriginalSD

So for 100 hands of play, your SD(100 hands) = Sqrt(100) * 6.6 = 10*6.6 = $66.

If you're not familiar with standard deviations though, they come in confidence intervals. 1SD = 68% confidence, 2SD = 95% confidence, and 3SD = 99% confidence. So to be 99% confident in our results we need 3SD = 3*66 = $198.

So this means... After 1 hour of flat betting $6, playing pure basic strategy (no mistakes) in a .5% HE game... You can EXPECT to lose $3 +/- $198... So you could be up as much as $201 from 1 hour of play, and you could be down as much as $195 from 1 hour of play. Now, anything outside of this realm you definitely have a great mathematical case for yelling foul!

Is it not -$3 +/- $198 so the results should be between -$201 to +$195 which reflects the negative expectation of the game?

Quote: MGBJK

Hello fellow players,
Wassup?!??!
I need your help to solve this problem I have with Blackjack,
Hands played x hour 100
Hours of playing 1 hs
Payout 69.39%

Would also tell me the formula on how to calculate the house edge with the payout of 69.39%?

You can't really "calculate the house edge" based on a single result, but you can calculate the average house edge per hand for that particular run.

I am assuming 100 hands (100 hands per hour for 1 hour), and that you ended up with 0.6939 (69.39%) of your original bankroll.
If X is the return per hand, then X¹⁰⁰ = 0.6939, which means X = (X¹⁰⁰)^1/100 = 0.06939^1/100 = 0.9964
The HE per hand for this run = 100% x (1 - 0.9964) = 0.36%.

Hello thank u for all of your replies your are AWESOME,

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@audiousgambit the 63.39 it should be what players should get in return,

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@Romes you have been fantastic with all your explanations the 63.39 should be the payout up or down hopefully up, players should get 95% over the house but in reality they do get 63.39% as payout

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@ Davethebuilder how do you get to this -$201 to +$195?

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@ThatDonguy thank so much frankly I could't figure out the 63.39

and thankfully to all of you now I got an idea... you are the best but it looks like this particular casino isn't good enough to play with, the administration also told me they usually change the payout monthly based on the players winnings and losings, therefore the payout in question isn't fixed its changing continuously and this is only for a single deck game of blackjack, software used Netent. If u have anything to add please do so,.....it can be quite interesting to see if we can beat this particular game and most of all this casino,....:-)
The complete bklackjack payout list form this casino is :

♣ BJ Pontoon 86.49
♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 95.54
♣ Blackajack Pro 96.93
♣ Blackajack Touch 98.91
♣ Blackjack Classic 96.69
♣ Blackjack Double Exposure 104.68
♣ Blackjack Live 97.06
♣ Blackjack Single Deck 69.39

I was basing my question to the single deck of bj, but just to get an idea, if you would advice me on any of the above games to play with having these payouts as a fair gameplay for a bj player,....

When I tried to yell fault!!!!! Because to me I was loosing too much compared to my flat betting without having the possibility of re gaining some of my losses, the netent software only considered pushes as my winnings, then while trying to explain this situation to the Casino's customer service, they gladly replied: ' it's not their fault, it's the chance of the game, we are perfectly regulated with this.....and completely transparent', and while recalling me saying Pushes as my only winnings are u f***** kidding me?!???! That really felt good!!!! Anyway in this case probably the casino would have meant with 'chance of the game', we rigged our table so in the long run you will probably loose everything, if you play too perfectly we only give you pushes as winnings, and we tell you it's just bad luck!!!!! Or Probably It was just bad luck, fortunately I have only tested these rooms with virtual money lucky me, ....or i would have been broke, in the long run,....wouldn't I?!??!

What about the Risk of Ruin using the example above:

Quote:

My starting bankroll is $200
Hands played x hour 100
Hours of playing 1 hs
Flat betting $6
Payout 69.39%
Strategy perfect basic strategy

How about getting the Risk of ruin formula?

Quote: MGBJK

How about getting the Risk of ruin formula?

You have a couple options. You can easily run a SIM and get your RoR. If you're going to try to count cards, etc, you more/less need to spend the pennies on SIM software.

Or, you could reverse engineer it with 3 Standard Deviations like I did, and showed in my 3rd article under the Q/A section when talking about this.

...basically, just do your EV +/- 3SD for 75,000 hands (usually the point at which N0 is reached), and -3SD is the worst possible mathematically you could do... So as long as your bankroll is over that, you're a winner. Then again, I forgot you're not counting... So you're looking for the RoR just playing basic? The Wizard has an RoR sheet given the number of bets you have and how many hands you intend to play.

The Wizard has an RoR page as well: https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/12/

It really comes down to how much you're going to play. If you plan to play 1 hour per week for the next 40 years, then it's still simple to calculate. That's 2080 weeks, 1 hour per week makes 2080 hours, at 100 hands per hour that makes 208,000 hands (let's just use 200,000 hands for simplistic sake).

$6 average bet
NumHands = 200,000
HE = .5%

EV = (200,000*6)*(-.005) = -$6,000

OriginalSD = 1.15 * 6 = 6.9

SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

thus,

SD(200,000 hands) = Sqrt(200,000) * 6.9 = 3085, for 1 SD (68% confidence). To be 99% confident we need 3SD... 3SD = $9,257.

Therefor we can conclude that if you played 1 hour per week for the next 40 years you would expect to lose $6,000 +/- $9,257. So the mathematical WORST you could do would be -$6,000 - $9,257 = $15,257.

If you have a lifetime blackjack bankroll that is $15,257 then your RoR is 0.

For more specific examples, I'll leave the math to you =). You have all the information you need here and within my 3rd article to answer these questions.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: MGBJK

... the administration also told me they usually change the payout monthly based on the players winnings and losings, therefore the payout in question isn't fixed its changing continuously...
The complete bklackjack payout list form this casino is :

♣ BJ Pontoon 86.49
♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 95.54
♣ Blackajack Pro 96.93
♣ Blackajack Touch 98.91
♣ Blackjack Classic 96.69
♣ Blackjack Double Exposure 104.68
♣ Blackjack Live 97.06
♣ Blackjack Single Deck 69.39

I was basing my question to the single deck of bj, but just to get an idea, if you would advice me on any of the above games to play with having these payouts as a fair gameplay for a bj player,....

Woah there..... So these are not real games with actual cards, but software based games where the edge is not as it would be for a real card game. I don't know where that is even legal, but I wouldn't play there if they are able to 'adjust the payout'

Are you sure they adjust the payouts? It could be that is what the current day or week payout is. Maybe on the single deck someone ran really bad or maybe the hit every hand until they got to 20.

Only way to chage the payout using real cards is to change the rules.

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@Romes thank u so much for the risk of ruin explanation u are really opening my eyes, and basically u you deserve a beer!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)

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@GWAE these are the payouts for bj players for the last month

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♣ BJ Pontoon 86.49
♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 95.54
♣ Blackajack Pro 96.93
♣ Blackajack Touch 98.91
♣ Blackjack Classic 96.69
♣ Blackjack Double Exposure 104.68
♣ Blackjack Live 97.06
♣ Blackjack Single Deck 69.39

This month the casino changed the payouts as follows:

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♣ BJ Pontoon 74.71
♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 96.76
♣ Blackajack Pro 92.45
♣ Blackajack Touch 96.55
♣ Blackjack Classic 92.83
♣ Blackjack Double Exposure 97.5
♣ Blackjack Live 95.6
♣ Blackjack Single Deck 94.36

Last month the single deck neternt payout was 69.39% and this month is 94.36% this is a payout referred to players playing the software version of the game.

The last month bj live play payout was 97.06% and this month is 95.6%, in this casino players should get an edge over the house for about 95% overtime, but in reality if u will consider the monthly changing payouts the the edge over the house for a single game of bj will also change, overtime,....

And the casino increased the payout for the single deck, so much, only because I have yelled fault!!!!!, in the country of residence (Italy) which I am at, at the moment, there is a law that forbids players to play bj with online casinos that aren't properly 'regulated' coughing i mean properly manipulated by the Italian crooked regulation system AAMS, which gives to the casino the eldorado route to scam players as much as they want, legally. If u are an honest casino that wants to play in Italy you must undergo to the AAMS regulations which in my opinion are ruining the fair gameplay for bj players.

If u know a fair casino/s that accept players coming from Italy and possibly using netent, where players can play bj live and with the casino software fairly, please let me know


****UPDATED*****
Today I have discovered that the Casino forged these payouts:

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♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 95.54
♣ Blackajack Classic Touch 96.76
♣ Blackajack Pro 92.45
♣ Blackajack Touch 96.55
♣ Blackjack Classic 92.83

the customer's service told me that these games weren't in the platform no more, and I have said if payouts were based on players gameplays how did u calculate these payouts if u didn't have the games on the platform last month? At this point the f*wit realized what just happened and replied these games were in the platform but we had to take them down, before the end of the month, and we had to calculate the whole month?!???! And I said really?!???!????! how come I did not see these games in the beginning of the month??!??! The scammer replied if u want we can forward your request to our internal department,....ahhhhhgh right,..... So thankfully this casino revealed its true face,.........:SCUM:

disclaimer: I didn't go through your whole post, but if their "blackjack" payouts are below 99% then they have a game that I don't consider blackjack. I would never play that.

probably your're right,......we should always be watching out for 'payouts',.... :-)