crazydazy
Joined: Aug 30, 2016
• Posts: 30
August 30th, 2016 at 7:01:10 PM permalink
Hello community,

I keep running simulations on the following conditions and I'm unsure where I'm making a mistake (maybe I'm not). I thought the game I was simulating was more valuable than the program simulated. I keep getting win-rate of about \$8/hr for the following conditions but I had thought they were closer to \$13-15/hr.
Can someone please run a sim on the following conditions: 6D, H17, DOA2, DAS, split up to 4 hands. no late surrender. Wong out at -1. \$10 units. Also if you can run it on S17 as well.
What is my win-rate/100? Std dev/100?

Is my ev really \$8/hr for the H17 game?

TC-1 = 1
TC0 = 1
TC1 = 1
TC2 = 2
TC3 = 5
TC4 = 10
TC5 = 15
TC>5 = 15
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
• Posts: 8623
August 30th, 2016 at 7:04:18 PM permalink
Penetration? RSA? What count, HiLo?
crazydazy
Joined: Aug 30, 2016
• Posts: 30
August 30th, 2016 at 7:15:11 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Penetration? RSA? What count, HiLo?

75% pen, no RSA, HiLo with ill 18
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
• Posts: 5552
August 31st, 2016 at 6:52:14 AM permalink
One problem I can tell you already... For H17 you're correctly raising your bet at TC +2, but for S17 you're going to want to raise your bet at TC +1.

H17 game, 1-15 spread, wong out at < TC -1, ~75% PEN.... Hourly EV = ~\$10

S17 game, 1-15 spread, wong out at < TC -1, ~75% PEN... with the following spread:
TC-1 = 1
TC0 = 1
TC1 = 2
TC2 = 4
TC3=8
TC4=12
TC5=15
TC>5=15 .........................................Hourly EV = ~\$17

All of this also assumes zero mistakes.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
crazydazy
Joined: Aug 30, 2016
• Posts: 30
August 31st, 2016 at 7:01:14 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

One problem I can tell you already... For H17 you're correctly raising your bet at TC +2, but for S17 you're going to want to raise your bet at TC +1.

H17 game, 1-15 spread, wong out at < TC -1, ~75% PEN.... Hourly EV = ~\$10

S17 game, 1-15 spread, wong out at < TC -1, ~75% PEN... with the following spread:
TC-1 = 1
TC0 = 1
TC1 = 2
TC2 = 4
TC3=8
TC4=12
TC5=15
TC>5=15 .........................................Hourly EV = ~\$17

All of this also assumes zero mistakes.

Tyvm