+EV opportunities given by other players
I know this may sound silly...but, any comments on how to get more of these opportunities?
Quote: MBThe other day I got a great "gift" from another player. He ran out of cash and let me have the action on the DD from an 11 vs. dealer 3. From Wizard of Odds, that bet is worth $0.51 in EV per $1. It was a $300 bet. I never bet that much on a single hand...but, was more than happy to make that bet.
I know this may sound silly...but, any comments on how to get more of these opportunities?
1) Play with as many drunk people at the table as possible.
2) Play with as many stupid people at the table as possible (#1 and #2 can be combined, obviously).
3) Be as ingratiating and charm-oozing as you can toward your fellow players. Commiserate with them on their bad luck when they hit a hard 15 against a dealer 6 and bust. This works best when your fellow players are drunk or stupid.
4) Walk around a casino of your choice, over and over, $100 bills in your hand, keeping eyes and ears peeled for someone who has a big bet in front of them and is saying, "Gee, I don't have enough to double down." This approach will yield approximately nine cents in EV per forty hours of effort.
All silliness aside, two things are worth noting: One, that guy gave up some of his own EV by doubling down. Given the premise that he indeed didn't have the funds to double down himself, he reduced his chances of winning without being compensated as a result. Specifically, had he been playing the hand without doubling, he would have been able to hit again if he had received an Ace--that would have been the proper basic strategy play, to hit a hard 12 vs. a 3. This is the situation writ small where you win less often if you double down on an 11 versus, say, a 10 because if you didn't double, you would be able to hit again if you received a small card. (Winning twice as much when you do win compensates for that reduced frequency.)
Two, as I explained above, he didn't lose anything by not having additional doubling money in this case. But what if he had been dealt something like AA vs. a 10, or 88 vs. a 7? Not having the money to split would have turned a +EV situation into a badly -EV situation. Moral: never bet more than half the money you have left.
I think to bet no more than 25% remaining bankroll when you're going broke is an acceptable compromise.
But it's still a pretty sad situation ;-)
1. Given: the BJ game is 8 Decks, Dealer Hits S17, DAS, Max 3 Splits and No Surrender.
Player has $400 left at the table and makes a $100 Bet. The deal is
8,8 vs 7.
The player splits his 8,8 and a third 8 is immediately dealt which he re-splits. He now has bet $300 and only has an additional $100 left. When he hits his first 8 again, he is dealt a 2, making a 10. The situation is then:
Player: 8-2; 8; 8 vs Dealer 7.
Given the player only has enough cash at the table to cover exactly one additional bet, is it optimal strategy for the Player to
- use his last $100 to Double Down on the Ten (8-2) vs 7?
- or, should he choose to HIT the 10 vs 7 and reserve his last $100 as a contingency to be used to RESPLIT any subsequent 8-8 pair vs 7 or to DOUBLE DOWN on a subsequent 11 vs 7 or 10 vs 7?
2. Identical situation except the player started with $499 at the table. His initial bet was $100 and the situation is now
Player: 8-2; 8; 8 vs Dealer 7.
The player has $199 remaining and his immediate decision is how to play the 8-2 vs 7. What is the optimum player strategy?
Here's a VP example:
You bet you're last $1.25 and are dealt As, Ks, Qs, Js, 10h. Are you going to keep the straight to give yourself a guaranteed 4 more hands, or make the optimal play and go for the royal?
The answer is obvious. You go for the royal.
I am going out on a limb and assuming you've never walked in with a fairly large bankroll, and watched it run and hide on the wrong side of the bell curve in fairly short order ;-) Not picking on you Gordon, I promise. And all those terms are relative, pocket change to some is life changing amounts to others, etc.
Truthfully, unless you are a serious gambler, you better be prepared to split to 4 and double all four, and lose all four. And be prepared to do the exact same the next couple hands. It happens.
I play red chip tables, $10 or $15 min usually. I should be playing penny tables, I just can't find them ;-)
Quote: IbeatyouracesCash on hand doesn't dictate that you deviate from BS. You double the 10 in this situation.
Here's a VP example:
You bet you're last $1.25 and are dealt As, Ks, Qs, Js, 10h. Are you going to keep the straight to give yourself a guaranteed 4 more hands, or make the optimal play and go for the royal?
The answer is obvious. You go for the royal.
While I certainly agree with the correct play in your vp example, I don’t think the vp example is an apt comparison to what is being considered.
In blackjack, future betting opportunities within the same hand or the lack thereof is a reasonable thing to address. In video poker, assuming a standard game like what was posited, there is one bet per hand. Once that bet has been made, the object is to get the most out of it --- without worrying about whether you will need to bet more on the same hand.
Blackjack is different. I don’t have the answer to the original poster’s question, but looking at the probability of getting another 8, 2, or 3 along with the increase in EV increase from making each move seems to be quite legitimate.
In the first example I don’t know what to do, but I’m pretty sure doubling-for-less $99 is correct in the second. You can double for less but you can’t split for less.
Quote: IbeatyouracesCash on hand doesn't dictate that you deviate from BS. You double the 10 in this situation.
Here's a VP example:
You bet you're last $1.25 and are dealt As, Ks, Qs, Js, 10h. Are you going to keep the straight to give yourself a guaranteed 4 more hands, or make the optimal play and go for the royal?
The answer is obvious. You go for the royal.
It's not the same. In BJ, you may be better off not doubling or doubling for less. If you have 1 unit wagered and 1 unit in your stack remaining (with no cash on hand), you wouldn't necessarily split certain hands (2,2vs2 I think is one) since you're now effectively playing a noDAS game, for instance.
In VP, what if you needed $5 more coin-in for the promotion you're playing -- do $10k coin-in and get $500 in FP? In that circumstance, I couldn't imagine going for the royal to be the proper play, if the very last of your accessible money is being wagered with $0 remaining.
Scavenger BJ is great, but I try not to hurt players along the way. If a guy is doubling for less, I'm there in a heartbeat. Doubling down on a guy who is broke is bad form, in my book.
Quote: IbeatyouracesYou always make the optimal play concerning what's in front of you. You cannot speculate on future cards you might get on other hands.
Absolutely false.
Quote: RSAbsolutely false.
Absolutely not!
Quote: gordonm8881. Given: the BJ game is 8 Decks, Dealer Hits S17, DAS, Max 3 Splits and No Surrender.
Player has $400 left at the table and makes a $100 Bet. The deal is
8,8 vs 7.
The player splits his 8,8 and a third 8 is immediately dealt which he re-splits. He now has bet $300 and only has an additional $100 left. When he hits his first 8 again, he is dealt a 2, making a 10. The situation is then:
Player: 8-2; 8; 8 vs Dealer 7.
Given the player only has enough cash at the table to cover exactly one additional bet, is it optimal strategy for the Player to
- use his last $100 to Double Down on the Ten (8-2) vs 7?
- or, should he choose to HIT the 10 vs 7 and reserve his last $100 as a contingency to be used to RESPLIT any subsequent 8-8 pair vs 7 or to DOUBLE DOWN on a subsequent 11 vs 7 or 10 vs 7?
If the Player uses his last $100 to Double Down on the 10 vs. 7, I calculate that his EV for this last $100 bet is +0.137, or +$13.70.
Alternatively, if the Player HITs the 10 vs. 7 and uses the $100 to Resplit any subsequent 8-8 pair (in this hand) or to Double Down on any subsequent 11 (8-3) or 10 (8-2) in this hand, I calculate that the EV for that use of the $100 is +0.134, or +$13.40.
So it is best to immediately Double Down on the 10 vs. 7, but it is a very close call. Why is it close? Because splitting an 8-8 pair vs. 7 (without being able to Double After Splitting because you have no more cash) is better than Hitting a 16(8-8) vs 7 by +0.673 - an enormous amount. By comparison, Doubling Down on 10(8-2) vs. 7 is better than HITTING 10(8-2) vs. 7 by only 0.137.
Quote: gordonm8882. Identical situation except the player started with $499 at the table. His initial bet was $100 and the situation is now
Player: 8-2; 8; 8 vs Dealer 7.
The player has $199 remaining and his immediate decision is how to play the 8-2 vs 7. What is the optimum player strategy?
This is tricky, because you need to remember that you can Double Down with a bet size that is less than the original bet, but you cannot SPLIT a pair unless you have enough cash/chips to 100% match the original bet.
I have not yet calculated the EV's for this decision. I would be pleased if someone else would do this calculation.
Quote: IbeatyouracesYou always make the optimal play concerning what's in front of you. You cannot speculate on future cards you might get on other hands.
You can't really believe this? The EV you would lose by having to hit 8,8 versus a 7 versus splitting the 8's is huge. That must be factored into the decision. Someone here can figure out the exact EV you lose by not being able to double a subsequent 11, and the EV you lose by not being able to split another 8. And multiply that by the frequency those events will be expected to occur. And compare that to the EV you lose by not doubling the initial 10 versus a dealer 7. I think it will be a close decision. But awaiting the results if someone can do it...
Edit.... Gordon just did it and i missed it. Thanks Gordon. I was right that it was pretty close!
Quote: IbeatyouracesAbsolutely not!
Why do you split 2,2 and 3,3 vs 2 or 3 in a DAS game but not an NDAS game, then? (6D, H17 constant)
Here are the relevant improvements in EV for various decisions (assuming you have the money on hand to make the bets).
Double 10 (8-2) vs 7 change in EV = 0.137
Double 11 (8-3) vs 7 change in EV = 0.172
Split 88 vs 7 (as compared to Hit 16 vs 7)
- Resplit allowed, DAS change in EV = 0.7282
- Resplit allowed, NDAS change in EV = 0.6734
- Can't resplit, NDAS change in EV = 0.6267
Taking this into account the EV advantage of the two scenarios for using your last $100 are:
- Double 8-2 vs. 7 change in EV = +0.137
- HIT 8-2 vs. 7, use last $100 as needed to resplit an 8-8 pair or Double on 8-3 or 8-2: change in EV = +0.127
So 0.137 vs 0.127. Its still a close call.
Quote: billryanIf you have 11 against any card and you are out of money, it's stupid to let someone else double down on your cards. Suppose you have 11 vs face. You let the guy dd and draw an Ace. You are screwed. If you hadn't let him do that you'd be free to hit and draw the nine that inevitability will be there.
Scavenger BJ is great, but I try not to hurt players along the way. If a guy is doubling for less, I'm there in a heartbeat. Doubling down on a guy who is broke is bad form, in my book.
I agree with what you're saying. He ASKED whether I wanted to double. Based on how this guy was playing, he would not have taken another card if he drew an Ace (against a dealer 3).
If he asked if I wanted to double on 11 vs. face, I would have pointed out the risk. If he said, "I don't care...you can double", I would certainly have taken the opportunity (assuming the count was right).
