Am I drifting into the no fly zone?

Joel, you've got to explain how the dice have a memory. Understanding that they do not have such is fundamental to eliminating fallacies in Craps. You are demonstrating the opposite understanding. That is not going to go over.

As far as where you are drifting, I'd say towards a furious exclamation that you are sick and tired of fending off criticism. That is what we've always seen.

Face plant ...... Oye vay voy

Quote: JoelDeze

Okay, I'll explain it like the stock market.

But then you didn't really.

In sports betting, teams can have hot or cold streaks which have predictive value: The 'hotness' or 'coldness' can be directly and somewhat predictably correlated to some underlying quality such as the quality of the new coach, the quality of the training facilities, or the fitness of the latest team joiners. A team could go on a hot streak because they have a well motivated quality coach at the same time as the team recruits new members and coaches etc etc. You could analyse results and see a valid trend. I agree you could spot and exploit momentum in football betting without even knowing the underlying cause.
With stocks and shares, a share price movement can develop momentum because of the sentiment of investors. A rise in price yesterday can motivate more buyers to have confidence to drive the price higher. Nobody disputes that momentum exists in sporting events or stock market behaviour.

For blackjack, even without counting, I accept that there can be some rather limited momentum in that a very positive count or very negative count can take time to dissipate, even if you haven't kept track of the count. Only within one shoe, of course.

For craps, that momentum effect can only show if there is fundamental physical linkage between the behaviour of one roll and the next. Some would say that a single shooter MIGHT induce enough influence to produce a trend. I don't buy that theory, but on that we can agree to differ. But, I firmly assert that at craps, a TABLE cannot maintain momentum of any sort if the shooter is changed unless the dice are fixed.

In Craps, the gamblers fallacy can only be false in the presence of an accomplished Dice Influencer. I'm really not going to bother arguing that DI doesn't work, because it's proponents are so firmly entrenched in their viewpoint. I do note, however that casinos still exist and don't go bust to those DIs.

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As for the gambler's fallacy, I measure my wins and losses similar to a trending graph. If I'm losing more, I wager less. If I'm winning more, I wager more.

Why? And you do realise that doing so embraces the variance in ways that exaggerate any PERCEIVED trend or momentum..... Right up until the wheels fall off.

You had a few big early wins. good for you. They are reinforcing your misconstrued and misplaced self confidence. Good luck with that. Funny how you don't harp on about your really bad sessions.

Quote:

I work for the largest property insurance company in the world. The mechanisms of gambling and insurance are very similar. The majority of loss is preventable but requires measuring risk and identifying ways to mitigate it. The same core principles apply here. I've built and used them in my football wagering algorithms and it's one of the fundamental reasons why I'm in the black versus in the red where casinos and sports books are concerned.

Re-read my comments about sports momentum. Also re-read my warning about getting confident in your incredible mental skills.

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I've been a statistician for years.

And so have I. The difference is that I am happy with the nature of randomness, and you think you are bigger than it is.

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I will continue to have success because I calculate and follow a disciplined strategy, no matter how unorthodox it appears at times.

To that, I call BS.

Quote: OnceDear

...To that, I call BS.

Basically, he's just gambling and not AP'ing.

Quote: JoelDeze

Okay, I'll explain it like the stock market.

The MACD for craps in relation to hot and cold momentum (for my personal trending purposes) would affect my wagers the following ways:

If a person shooting rolls a 7.
If another person shooting rolls a 7.
I would play the DPL at $25 with a lay of $30 and place the DC on the 5th roll (if it gets that far).
The table has cold momentum.

If a person shooting rolls a point.
If the same person shooting rolls another point.
I would play the PL for $10 with $30 odds and start with $51 inside (5/6/8) and $10 in the field. I press the 5 by itself when it hits. I press the 6/8 together when either hits. I don't raise the field bet until the lowest placed wager on either the 5/6/8 divided by 3 exceeds 10.
The table has hot momentum.

It's the equivalent of having two movements on one scale or the other (determining a buy or sell).

The RSI indicator would represent how much money I have on the table and would represent over wagering or under wagering. I only take this into account depending on the number of rolls.

If a person is over 20 rolls, I reset my wagers by the 28th roll. The likelihood of a roll 30+ is difficult and only occurs a few times per night.

As for the gambler's fallacy, I measure my wins and losses similar to a trending graph. If I'm losing more, I wager less. If I'm winning more, I wager more.

I work for the largest property insurance company in the world. The mechanisms of gambling and insurance are very similar. The majority of loss is preventable but requires measuring risk and identifying ways to mitigate it. The same core principles apply here. I've built and used them in my football wagering algorithms and it's one of the fundamental reasons why I'm in the black versus in the red where casinos and sports books are concerned.

I've been a statistician for years. Just because I'm having success doesn't mean I'm BS'ing anyone. I will continue to have success because I calculate and follow a disciplined strategy, no matter how unorthodox it appears at times.

All this fits right in with gamblers fallacy. It doesn't matter how simple or complicated you make it. The belief you can beat a -EV game is gamblers fallacy. Crap's = -EV game and only though marketing or some funny business is there an edge. You can't accurately predict hot and cold streaks that's gamblers fallacy.

We should define that you can't beat craps using dice but card crape can be beaten

So, why would you have a big bet out if you had a count so negative as to provide a departure from basic strategy to hit hard 17. By the way, what is the index to hit hard 17??? Suggest wonging out during those opportunities.

I do not understand working real hard at counting cards, either you are counting or your are not. This line of commentary sounds a lot like gambling to me.

Quote: Stealth

So, why would you have a big bet out if you had a count so negative as to provide a departure from basic strategy to hit hard 17. By the way, what is the index to hit hard 17??? Suggest wonging out during those opportunities.

I do not understand working real hard at counting cards, either you are counting or your are not. This line of commentary sounds a lot like gambling to me.

You're not reading. He's got a photographic memory, he's clairvoyant, he's lucky and possibly the smartest man on WOV. Me, I just noticed he had big bets out during a negative count, I didn't even know what the count had to be to make that a correct play it just made me think that's strange. I would be worried they would call that out and start watching you, especially when you catch your card. I would toss him out of my casino if I seen that, especially with all the winning he does.

Personally, I'm impressed.

And I'm patiently waiting on him to solve Roulette for us.

Nailed Craps, BJ, Sports Book, and Drones.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Personally, I'm impressed.

And I'm patiently waiting on him to solve Roulette for us.

Nailed Craps, BJ, Sports Book, and Drones.

+1

Quote: JoelDeze

+1

Uh? Does Joel appreciate 2f's sarcasm or does it go right over his head?

Quote: OnceDear

Uh? Does Joel appreciate 2f's sarcasm or does it go right over his head?

I appreciate his sarcasm. He has a very refined ability to place humor in a way that I enjoy.

Quote: JoelDeze

I appreciate his sarcasm. He has a very refined ability to place humor in a way that I enjoy.

Refined is a bit of a stretch, distilled is frequently a factor ;-)

Quote: OnceDear

For craps, that momentum effect can only show if there is fundamental physical linkage between the behaviour of one roll and the next. Some would say that a single shooter MIGHT induce enough influence to produce a trend. I don't buy that theory, but on that we can agree to differ. But, I firmly assert that at craps, a TABLE cannot maintain momentum of any sort if the shooter is changed unless the dice are fixed.

I appreciate you at least saying we can agree to disagree.

Quote: OnceDear

In Craps, the gamblers fallacy can only be false in the presence of an accomplished Dice Influencer. I'm really not going to bother arguing that DI doesn't work, because it's proponents are so firmly entrenched in their viewpoint. I do note, however that casinos still exist and don't go bust to those DIs.
Why? And you do realise that doing so embraces the variance in ways that exaggerate any PERCEIVED trend or momentum..... Right up until the wheels fall off.

I claim no magical or mystical powers of any kind. I do believe that dice influence exists but perhaps not on the same scale other DI proponents believe.

Quote: OnceDear

You had a few big early wins. good for you. They are reinforcing your misconstrued and misplaced self confidence. Good luck with that. Funny how you don't harp on about your really bad sessions.

Who wants to listen to ABBA and Julio Iglesias when you can listen to Metallica and AC/DC.

+ 1/2

$:o)