When to surrender if you know dealer has 17?
this happened to me:
dealers top card is 7. he accidently turns over his hole card (face card) and everyone at the table sees it.
I had a 14 and surrendered w/o hesitation.
what about 12 or 13?
what hands would you surrender?
even at 12, you got 4 cards that will beat him and 4 cards that will bust. Others cards you have to redraw and the chance are even worse.
so i think i would surrender at 12 if I know for sure the dealer got 17.
Quote: 100xOdds3:2, s17, LS, csm
this happened to me:
dealers top card is 7. he accidently turns over his hole card (face card) and everyone at the table sees it.
I had a 14 and surrendered w/o hesitation.
what about 12 or 13?
what hands would you surrender?
The Wizard has the playing strategy when both dealer cards are exposed, but he doesn't mention the surrender strategy. However, the infinite-deck model gives this surrender strategy: dealer 17 or 18--never surrender; dealer 19--surrender 15 to 18; dealer 20--surrender 4 to 9, 12 to 19, and soft 18 to soft 19.
Quote: ChesterDogT However, the infinite-deck model gives this surrender strategy: dealer 17 or 18--never surrender; dealer 19--surrender 15 to 18; dealer 20--surrender 4 to 9, 12 to 19, and soft 18 to soft 19.
where exactly is the page?
Quote: andysifwhere exactly is the page?
The Wizard did a YouTube video on how to write an Excel version of the infinite-deck model.
I used the same procedure to write my version. You can write an easier version just for dealer's totals of 17, 18, 19, and 20 to find which player's hands have EVs less than -0.5.
Quote: ChesterDogThe Wizard has the playing strategy when both dealer cards are exposed, but he doesn't mention the surrender strategy. However, the infinite-deck model gives this surrender strategy: dealer 17 or 18--never surrender; dealer 19--surrender 15 to 18; dealer 20--surrender 4 to 9, 12 to 19, and soft 18 to soft 19.
Makes sense. If you have 17 vs dealer 18, you have the following outcomes: 3/13 to win 1 unit, 1/13 to tie, and 9/13 to lose 1 unit. Assuming all cards are equally likely, that's -6/13 units, which is better than a surrender (by almost 4%).
This is one of those cases where your initial reaction is "it can't be true". However, math never lies.
Quote: 100xOdds3:2, s17, LS, csm
this happened to me:
dealers top card is 7. he accidently turns over his hole card (face card) and everyone at the table sees it.
I had a 14 and surrendered w/o hesitation.
what about 12 or 13?
what hands would you surrender?
You surrendered without hesitation? Come on man, stop leading with your chin;)
You never (ever) surrender to a known 17. Only a 12 vs 20, and 13 vs 11,19-20.
The infinite deck model apparently disagrees with CAA....
Quote: mcallister3200You surrendered without hesitation? Come on man, stop leading with your chin;)
You never (ever) surrender to a known 17. Only a 12 vs 20, and 13 vs 11,19-20.
The infinite deck model apparently disagrees with CAA....
So if the dealer accidentally exposed a 20 and you have 19, you won't surrender? ;-)
Quote: IbeatyouracesSo if the dealer accidentally exposed a 20 and you have 19, you won't surrender? ;-)
Not really sure what your saying, He asked about 12-13, so I gave the answer for that.
Quote: mcallister3200Not really sure what your saying, He asked about 12-13, so I gave the answer for that.
I total missed the last part. My eyes are tired from playing this way all day. No surrender for us though 0:-)
I think this is a big reason why BJ is such a difficult game to do math on, at least if you want to do the math by hand, or try to figure it out on the fly.
That's an interesting situation. I'm sure many didn't know that.Quote: RSIt can get real funky. IIRC -- if dealer has a 17 and you have 11, you might think "Oh, I should double down. 1/13 I push, 7/13 I win, 5/13 I lose, profit of 2/13...so doubling down is better than hitting!" but, of course you'd be wrong, because if you hit and catch an A-5, you have the option to draw again...whereas with a double-down, you don't have that option.
I think this is a big reason why BJ is such a difficult game to do math on, at least if you want to do the math by hand, or try to figure it out on the fly.
If you hadn't done the math and that situation came up what would you have done?
I'm thinking most average gamblers would tend to want to double.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's an interesting situation. I'm sure many didn't know that.
If you hadn't done the math and that situation came up what would you have done?
I'm thinking most average gamblers would tend to want to double.
Considering someone asked me what I'd do....and I said I'd double, using the logic I wrote above....yeah, I probably would have doubled down if I was in that situation [prior to knowing the proper thing to do]. As a consolation prize, at least it would'a been +EV (but not max EV).
When I read the OP post....I thought to myself, I don't think any hand should be surrendered against a 17.
Although, on the fly, I'd probably surrender a 17vs18.
CAA = ???Quote: mcallister3200You surrendered without hesitation? Come on man, stop leading with your chin;)
You never (ever) surrender to a known 17. Only a 12 vs 20, and 13 vs 11,19-20.
The infinite deck model apparently disagrees with CAA....
Quote: TwoFeathersATLCAA = ???
I believe Exhibit CAA was a piece of evidence in the James Grosjean vs Caesars Entertainment trial(?). If I had to guess, I'm thinking it may have been the deck of cards that were being used while Grosjean was playing....although that doesn't quite make sense, since I believe the deck was destroyed. But it had something to do with the JG vs CET stuff.
EDIT: Nvm I'm retarded. CAA = Beyond Counting, Exhibit CAA is a book written by James Grosjean. The book, as far as I know, is the most detailed book on table games AP.
Quote: AxelWolfIf you hadn't done the math and that situation came up what would you have done?
I'm thinking most average gamblers would tend to want to double.
I would have doubled, for exactly the rationale above, that I had more winning cards than losing ones, and I probably would have assumed that the ability to redraw if I get an A-5 wouldn't be worth enough to overcome the increased bet size.
For what it's worth, I think I am an above-average gambler. I'm good at math, accustomed to thinking probabilistically, understand EV and variance, and know basic strategy for the typical games. But I'm not a pro and not particularly expert at blackjack.
So there's one data point for "double."
Ignoring the make-up of the dealer's total but using 6 decks for the player I agree with the above.Quote: ChesterDog...infinite-deck model gives this surrender strategy: dealer 17 or 18--never surrender; dealer 19--surrender 15 to 18; dealer 20--surrender 4 to 9, 12 to 19, and soft 18 to soft 19.
fwiw the worst scenario vs 17 and 18 is having 16; vs 17 EV = -.303226 vs 18 is -.458065. So always play on.
The best 15 (78) vs 19 has EV = -.516487
The best 12 (T2) vs 20 has EV = -.611427
Soft 18 (A7) vs 20 has EV = -0.506377
I'm guessing if the dealer has two high cards, otherwise you wouldn't know the total, makes it slightly less likely you'd bust and may flip some marginal decisions. However I suspect no decisions are that tight.
*The dealer bust rate is also why with 4+ decks doubling 11 vs. Ace is BS with H17 but not S17 (since with H17 the dealer is more likely to bust, making it less risky to be stuck with a stiff hand).
However, for the situation of 16 v. 18 or better... surrender IS the proper choice. Naturally, any hard standing hand will surrender if beaten (i.e. 18 v. 20). Interesting question. In a backhanded way it asks when would you surrender a particular hand given ANY Player total with ANY amount of cards.
JMH 2 of clubs
You don't even surrender 17 vs 18 - the logic is (infinite deck) that there are 3 cards to win, 1 card to tie and 9 cards to lose, giving an EV of (3+0-9)/13 = -6/13 (about -.4615).Quote: 98Clubs...situation of 16 v. 18 or better... surrender IS the proper choice...
Let's look, assuming you could surrender on any number of cards, at an extreme example. You know the dealer has two large cards and for instance you could have eight 2's and and Ace. That means with six decks
Winners (4 3 2) = 3*24 - 8 = 64
Ties (A) = 24 - 1 = 23
Losers (KQJT98765) = 9*24 - 2 = 214
So EV = (64+0-214)/(64+23+214) = -150/301 = -.4983.
So you still wouldn't surrender!
