Discovering beatable games

Hi everybody!

My name is Jack and I'm new to these forums and new to gambling in general.

That said, I have been fascinated with learning about poker and blackjack on and off for the past 10 years or so, but I haven't really thought seriously about learning how to count cards until about 1 month ago.

My question to the community is: How do you guys (and gals) find beatable games out there? And is there a culture of sharing which games are beatable and which ones are not (which casino's are offering promotions and which ones are not) etc.- in the blackjack card counting world?

Or is it pretty much every AP for themselves?

Yesterday I called around to my local casinos and was able to find one within a one hours drive that had a 2 deck BJ game that payed 3:2 for a blackjack, allowed DAS, dealer hits on soft 17, surrender is allowed, the table minimum is $15, double down on any two cards, and they have will allow me to bring my wallet sized blackjack basic strategy chart to the table.

Would you guys consider this to be a worthwhile game for me to bring my bankroll to ($5000) to practice counting in a real casino environment?

It is basically every AP for themselves. You don't want to share info or you risk the casino changing rules and promotions.

Now if you have something to trade then there may be a market.

Hi Jack,
Welcome to the forum. Not exactly every man for himself. A certain amount of self interest, yeah, but it's us versus them and there's enough 'them' to go round.

Blackjack counting is fun and one of the few ways to beat a casino, But don't overestimate the profit potential.
You have the right idea to size up the rules of the game and the next obvious step is to find the exact correct strategy card and house edge. In a real world casino, there are other advantages to potentially supplement counting. Comps and favourable dealer errors are two, not to be overlooked.

You will have noticed that the house edge is usually of the order of about 0.6% which is not a massive thing to overcome, but you do need to know that with the best counting and with the best will in the world, you will only find yourself at a player advantage of up to about 1% to 3% and only then for a proportion of the games you play.

You'll need to know all about ramping your bet so that you put more money out when you have an edge and play min stakes when you don't. Then you'll need to consider that the ramp behaviour of a card counter is conspicuous and if you are doing it well enough to gain your advantage the casinos will be onto you and ask you to leave.

So, straight away card counting is not the Holy Grail on its own. You absolutely MUST learn and memorise the basic strategy card better than you know your own name, before you expect to even play properly to the house edge. Remember that you will be juggling the count in your head, while keeping Basic Strategy decisions perfect while observing the cards, while being bombarded with distractions. Not easy. Fun to try, but not easy at all.

To survive financially, you must research Kelly criteria and manage your wagering within that or even a good count and a real advantage will still see your bankroll wiped out just by normal random variance. Variance can be a godsend or a merciless killer. Short term it will have massively more impact than house edge or player edge. If you have good variance you will get cocky and start to overbet. If you have bad variance you will get slaughtered.

Seek out and read the posts here by Romes ( look out his risk of ruin and a-z posts) and KewlJ who was a long standing professional card counter here. ( Recently banned here, sadly )

If you are in the US, beware Indian run casinos. They can, apparently be a bit hostile in treatment of counters/winners and your recourse to law would be minimum. Research counter traps ( easy games that are scrutinised to ID counters )

Finally, it cannot be said often enough. Betting strategies and money management strategies will do nothing at all to improve your edge. Don't be seduced by Martingale etc, which are a great way to make losing your money more fun and exciting.

Blackjack is great fun. It can be low cost / no cost fun too. Locate an online live dealer game or a trainer game where you can watch and count without playing.

PS. Hi-low count is often considered adequate by counters. Opt 2 is my choice, slightly harder to do. Anything else is for the big boys, IMHO.

As I say. Welcome. Take care.

Let me add a bit to OnceDear's thoughts.

Following is the process I used for learning to count.
1) Find a good quality Blackjack training game before heading to the casino. I have my favorite, but not sure of rules for posting specific recommendations. PM me if you'd like more detail.
2) Practice basic strategy until you know it cold. You should be able to play the hands without even really thinking about it.
3) Find a casino with low limit tables and play basic strategy in a live environment. Don't try to count cards at this point. Just get accustomed to playing in a casino environment with all the distractions. While you're at it learn table etiquette by watching others and asking questions.
4) Select a simple count strategy, such as Hi-Lo or Hi-Opt I. Or for an even simpler count that's still quite effective, try an unbalanced count such as REKO that doesn't require calculating True Count after every hand. It's more important to be able to play perfectly than to use a sophisticated, multi-level count. The highly successful MIT team used a simple Hi-Lo count.
5) Practice this count in your training game until you can watch TV or hold a conversation without losing the count.
6) Go back to the low limit tables at the casino and try out your counting strategy. You'll probably find it difficult at first and will make many mistakes, but with some practice you'll quickly improve.

A couple other pointers:
1) Don't discount luck (aka variance). When you get on a winning streak it's easy to get over confident, believing that you're winning due to your skill. Blackjack is played with very slim margins, and huge swings aren't just possible, they're inevitable.
2) Treat your bankroll like any other financial account. Keep track of the +s and -s, and record your ending bankroll after each session. It's easy to remember the wins and forget the losses - again leading to overconfidence.

Good luck!

Quote: jiggatyjack

Or is it pretty much every AP for themselves?

What's an "AP?" Did you mean Advantage Player or does that stand for something else?

Quote: jiggatyjack

I have been fascinated with learning about poker and blackjack on and off for the past 10 years or so, but I haven't really thought seriously about learning how to count cards until about 1 month ago.

Old enough to know better, but not young enough to slough it off when things invariably go south.

Hi OnceDear,

Thank you for the kind welcome to the forums!

I am 100% in agreement with you about mastering basic strategy and understanding how to manage my bankroll (Kelly Criteria).

FYI - my goal isn't to make a living being an AP - it's just to provide a couple extra K per year to help pay for vacations and the like.

Thanks again for the welcome!

You can find info on beatable games at these 2 links. The first link is free. The 2nd requires a subscription to current blackjack news.

https://www.qfit.com/maps.shtml

http://bj21.com/

Quote: teliot

I will concur that any debate, article or discussion on card counting systems, card counting questions or card counting techniques at blackjack is squeezing water from a rock in today's advantage play waterfall universe. It's not just a question of which card counting system is good for beginners. No beginning or inquisitive player should be encouraged to count cards. I have no idea why the obsession with card counting blackjack continues in the AP community, or why it is discussed across various message boards. Grosjean was right (of course) about salamanders. In other words, I don't know why KJ continues to defend his extraordinarily weak AP methodology or why Norm hosts a board devoted to discussing this extraordinarily weak AP methodology.

I was saying that (about kj) all along. And, it's not the first time that the so-called experts argued openly about each other's claims.

Quote: teliot

I have seen APs earn more in one hour than KJ claims he earns in a year.

Sure you did. And Alan Mendelson saw 18 yo's in a row. There's something that you're leaving out each and every time you make this laughable claim. Air guitar. Irresponsible. Betting a hundred thousand a hand at baccarat, getting extremely lucky, and claiming a high-roller loss-rebate, doesn't make an AP.

BTW, what's the real reason that you sold your house in Vegas a year ago; openly questioned your "obsession" with this stuff; and quietly left the forum as "Taking a little break to play fiddle ..."?

Quote: TheGrimReaper13

I was saying that (about kj) all along. And, it's not the first time that the so-called experts argued openly about each other's claims.

Sure you did. And Alan Mendelson saw 18 yo's in a row. There's something that you're leaving out each and every time you make this laughable claim. Air guitar. Irresponsible. Betting a hundred thousand a hand at baccarat, getting extremely lucky, and claiming a high-roller loss rebate, doesn't make an AP.

BTW, what's the real reason that you sold your house in Vegas a year ago; openly questioned your "obsession" with this stuff; and quietly left the forum as "Taking a little break to play fiddle ..."?

Reaper, you're not even trying to 'play nice' are you ;-?

Don't forget to breathe. And of course, always stay hydrated.....

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Don't forget to breathe. And of course, always stay hydrated.....

I get a kick out of these guys who think they're going to make money at a casino. One by one, they quietly appear and then disappear, never to be heard from again. It's always the ones selling the games who remain.

There are long time game sellers on the forums, that's true.
I think many suffer from a virus, meaning they play games at the casino too.
Hopefully their winning game's profits offset their losing game's losses. That would actually be pretty cool ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

I think many suffer from a virus, meaning they play games at the casino too.

I think so too. The "virus".

Quote: TheGrimReaper13

I think so too. The "virus".

https://youtu.be/-140zxqqxSU

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

https://youtu.be/-140zxqqxSU

I think the fat lady just sang. Bye.

Jack, Welcome to the forums!

You've been given some amazing advice thus far. To "sum" up my thoughts and repeat some important steps, here's my 2 cents:

Unless you find a SPECIAL kind of blackjack game (which you're probably not aware with what I'm referring), all shoe based blackjack games are countable/beatable... Whether or not they're worth it and/or you have the bankroll for them is entirely a different story. There's a reason we compare rules and plug them in to the Wizards House Edge Calculator... There are changes when counting pending the rules. NOT your indexes necessarily, but your betting ramp. For example, if you're playing a good game with a .36% house edge (often S17 game) then you can up your bet at TC +1, because "generically" each TC is worth about .5% to the player, thus you're the advantage at TC +1. However, if you play an 8D H17 game (typically about .66%) then you are STILL A DOG at TC +1 and you'll not want to up your bet until TC +2.

Next comes to Penetration... The most important "table rule" in my (and many) opinion. Sometimes you'll see old threads about people asking about "Can I beat this online live blackjack game..." They'll list out the rules and then list at the very bottom, "Oh and it has 50% penetration..." While "technically" these games are beatable (any shoe blackjack game is) it's 100% not feasible... The frequencies of your true counts would be so bad because of this poor penetration that you would rarely see good counts... and when you do, you'd have to bet massive to compensate for rarely seeing them. This would require a tremendous bankroll quite often large enough to say "well if you had that much money anyways, you're just playing for fun." Thus, not feasible.

Overall, players are fairly open about sharing blackjack information, as every shoe game is technically beatable... You just need to run the House Edge and check the penetration to find out how feasible it is. Some blackjack players don't share places with REALLY GOOD penetration because they don't want the games to get pounded and thus ruin the penetration and opportunity... but that's about as far as regular counting blackjack goes in regards to "hiding" or not sharing specific details (in my opinion). A lot of times people will post "I'm gonna be in X town for the weekend, anyone know where the good BJ games are?" and plenty of people respond with the rules and where they can play. 1% of the population attempts card counting, and of that 1% actually has a winning game... So it's not some big secret nor something the casinos should really fear, but you'll learn that as you continue on with your journey =).

I talk about these topics and a lot more in my A to Z articles published in the Articles section of this site. Feel free to review these and ask any questions on the articles or by Private Messaging me (or even posting follow up questions here).

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Okay, what is going on in this thread or forum? I was reading a long interesting post by Romes when it flickered and disappeared from the thread. Teliot is quoted upstream by grim reaper but that post is missing as well.

Who is censoring this stuff? I have a serious problem with this happening, let me warn you. Locking the thread for now.

I've been hearing reports of abusive flagging again. If anyone claims to have had a legitimate post vanish, please PM me. It would help to include:

1. The thread.
2. The thrust of the message.
3. About what time you posted it.

Let me repeat that flagging posts out of selfish or bullying reasons will not be tolerated.

Thread re-opened.
Edit:not sure why this didn't take earlier, should be open now. Please pm me if it doesn't take.

Fixed. Bumped so those waiting see it.

Joke. What's green and sings?

Elvis Parsley.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Fixed. Bumped so those waiting see it.

Joke. What's green and sings?

Elvis Parsley.

Can I come out from under the fridge now?
Not green mostly, burst into song regularly.
It's cramped under here. I'm stuck with a bunch of ghosts from the 'Forums Past'.

Quote: jiggatyjack

Hi OnceDear,

Thank you for the kind welcome to the forums!

I am 100% in agreement with you about mastering basic strategy and understanding how to manage my bankroll (Kelly Criteria).

FYI - my goal isn't to make a living being an AP - it's just to provide a couple extra K per year to help pay for vacations and the like.

Thanks again for the welcome!

Jack,
I re-extend the welcome. It's sad that TheGrimReaper cast such negativity into this thread: That's usually what I, quite rightly, get accused of.

However TGR does have a point in saying that we are wrong to encourage card counting newbies. Too often we see newbies with big dreams of success. Let's briefly analyse your chances of success in making 'a couple extra K'

Let's generously assume that you instantly and cost-lessly become completely spot on at basic strategy.
Let's further assume that you cost-lessly become proficient as a card counter.
Let's discount all travelling and incidental costs.

You might get an average player edge of 1% with the help of a bit of wonging or bet ramping. Let's work with that as a ballpark figure.

So you decide to initially bet full Kelly which is 1% of $5,000 which is $50 per hand.
On average, and subject to massive variance, you make 1% or 50c per hand.

You aspire to make 'a few k'

That will take you 2,000/0.5 = 4,000 hands. in maybe 4,000 minutes of active play= 66.7 hours . That's an unsteady hobby wage of 2,000/66.7 = about $30 per hour of play. For every minute of that play, your brain will be running full steam with barely a pause to daydream or make mistakes, or worry about losing. You will be living, breathing, dreaming BlackJack. Addiction is par for the course. Trust me.

But wait. those hours of play will be interspersed with big periods where you don't have an edge. You might be flat betting $5 per hand at those times and losing, ( just to keep your seat) or you might be wonged out and just watching. Either way, you'd be spending many, many hours doing the mental gymnastics of counting for no financial reward. Trust me, that is soul destroyingly boring. So what would you do. I strongly suggest you do what most aspiring counters do: You'd just play for fun. Then you'd see your bankroll fade away. Been there, got the t-shirt.

If you aspire to count, then let it be for amusement. At best, use it to extend your playtime. Don't anticipate it making a positive contribution to your standard of living. If a couple K is important for buying your vacation, take that out of your bankroll now, while you have it saved.

Is my post just lost then?

Quote: Romes

Is my post just lost then?

Lost as in gone forever....or confused?

Quote: Wizard

I

Let me repeat that flagging posts out of selfish or bullying reasons will not be tolerated.

Then I want a 2 day suspension credit NEITHER of them were true as to why I flagged Darkoz's post.

Thanks in advance.

Quote: OnceDear

If you aspire to count, then let it be for amusement. At best, use it to extend your playtime. Don't anticipate it making a positive contribution to your standard of living.

So well stated. And exactly the approach I've taken for more than 25 years now.

So JJ (if I may call you that), here's my method. I consider my bankroll to be my entertainment expense, but I want to protect it to the degree possible. I also find card counting to be an enjoyable element of the game, and enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the casino at their own game. Through a combination of skill and good fortune (honestly not sure which has had the bigger impact) I've been able to accumulate some modest winnings over the years. I use a very simple count that I can play to near perfection without an inordinate amount of practice (though it did take significant effort initially to become proficient). I think I've found a good balance of advantage play (albeit marginal) and realistic expectations, so wanted to share.

I do think it's still possible to make good money playing Blackjack, but you need to treat it like any other profession, with the commensurate amount of dedication, effort, and up-front investment (not to mention accepting short-term risk). I wish only the best to those that pursue this route, but it's not for me.

FWIW, I read an article recently that suggested card counting is bad advice for the recreational or part-time gambler. The argument is that while counting opens the possibility of long-term gains it also exposes you to larger short-term losses due to the required betting fluctuations, And that really only the professionals who are in it for the long haul are likely to realize the benefits. I wish I could find the article because it had some nice charts. Basically it showed a bell curve of expected return for both a proficient counter and a BS player, and IIRC it represented something like 10,000 hands. The BS curve was tall and narrow, with the top of the curve just to the negative side of zero. The curve for the counter was very broad, with the top slightly to the positive side of zero. In other words, the range of expected results is much wider for the counter with nearly half of those results being on the negative side, and much larger losses possible. The curve for the counter should move toward the positive as the number of hands increases, but the number of hands required to effectively mitigate negative results will be quite large. The author's suggestion for the recreational gambler is to learn to play basic strategy perfectly to minimize losses and extend playing time. Perhaps you'll even come out on the positive side with the game's inherent variance. I don't intend to stop counting, but I believe the author makes a good argument.

Quote: Romes

Is my post just lost then?

You can afford to lose a few posts, it isn't going to kill you.

Quote: AxelWolf

You can afford to lose a few posts, it isn't going to kill you.

I'm an AP... Every single post counts!

Quote: Romes

I'm an AP... Every single post counts!

even when the count is negative.

Investigation complete.

Culprit:me.

I'm without computer and smartphone - ing it for about 4 days now. I was scrolling thru Romes' post and apparently hit the bottom where the flag is without realizing I was at the end. You do go on a bit, Romes...lol.

The other missing post was ancient history from teliot, quoted by TGR out of context. So it appeared the original was gone.

Laughed like hell (at myself) when I found out, but I do apologize to all, especially Romes, for fat-fingering his most helpful counsel. JB is working to restore it.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Investigation complete.

Culprit:me.

I'm without computer and smartphone - ing it for about 4 days now. I was scrolling thru Romes' post and apparently hit the bottom where the flag is without realizing I was at the end. You do go on a bit, Romes...lol.

The other missing post was ancient history from teliot, quoted by TGR out of context. So it appeared the original was gone.

Laughed like hell (at myself) when I found out, but I do apologize to all, especially Romes, for fat-fingering his most helpful counsel. JB is working to restore it.

So... are you going to suspend yourself or are you letting yourself off with a warning for previous good behavior? Either way I have my eye on you for now on Babs :P

Quote: beachbumbabs

Investigation complete.

Culprit:me.

I'm without computer and smartphone - ing it for about 4 days now. I was scrolling thru Romes' post and apparently hit the bottom where the flag is without realizing I was at the end. You do go on a bit, Romes...lol.

The other missing post was ancient history from teliot, quoted by TGR out of context. So it appeared the original was gone.

Laughed like hell (at myself) when I found out, but I do apologize to all, especially Romes, for fat-fingering his most helpful counsel. JB is working to restore it.

Ha, no worries. Apparently I have the ability to write a never ending post that just keeps going on and on with no regard of the readers and their time, reading level, nor the idea of what devices they're using in which to read my absurdly long posts in which I always attempt to explain too much therefor confusing some people when in reality I just want to dot all of my I's and cross all of my T's so that my post doesn't get turned upside down but in doing so apparently I may have made my posts a bit too long resulting in the issue of a scroll + flag deletion so perhaps it was meant to be but perhaps we'll never know because I don't even remember what my post was entirely about though rereading the thread I'm sure I could attempt to answer it the same and reconstruct my original post fairly intact but then who has the time for that and who would have the time to read it and would it accidentally get flagged and deleted again?

Long posts... Who? Me? ;-)

That is one of your shorter posts.
Is there a Guinness record for the most WORDS in a single sentence ;-)

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

That is one of your shorter posts.

And even then I stopped half way through it.

Quote: Romes

Ha, no worries. Apparently I have the ability to write a never ending post that just keeps going on and on with no regard of the readers and their time, reading level, nor the idea of what devices they're using in which to read my absurdly long posts in which I always attempt to explain too much therefor confusing some people when in reality I just want to dot all of my I's and cross all of my T's so that my post doesn't get turned upside down but in doing so apparently I may have made my posts a bit too long resulting in the issue of a scroll + flag deletion so perhaps it was meant to be but perhaps we'll never know because I don't even remember what my post was entirely about though rereading the thread I'm sure I could attempt to answer it the same and reconstruct my original post fairly intact but then who has the time for that and who would have the time to read it and would it accidentally get flagged and deleted again?

Long posts... Who? Me? ;-)

The English Major in me was in pain reading this. :)

Quote: PokerGrinder

The English Major in me was in pain reading this. :)

Hahaha that was the goal =p. Now try saying it all out loud in 1 breath...

Quote: Romes

Hahaha that was the goal =p. Now try saying it all out loud in 1 breath...

Just tried it. Very difficult. Got to "scroll" and couldn't talk no more. If you do it, it sounds like you're about to cry towards the end of your breath.

Edit: just got to "never know". I'm improving!

Edit 2: got to "the same and"

I think I can do it, or at least come close... Damn work. I'll try later.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Fixed. Bumped so those waiting see it.

Joke. What's green and sings?

Elvis Parsley.

What's green and skates?

Peggy Phlegm.