Bovada (online casinos generally) BJ

Bovada is currently offering match bonuses for 6 deck blackjack etc. totaling $1k over fairly long rollovers (40X). The bonuses are inapplicable to the less player disadvantageous games such as single and double deck blackjack. I have two questions:

The (negative) expectation for their single deck game is tiny (-0.00956%, per The Wizard's house edge calculator), so tiny that it seems to me essentially zero, in practical terms. Using their advertised $250 match the resultant loss should converge to only $1.912 over the required 40X rollover ($250*40*0.0000956), tho purposely wildly varying bet size should result in much greater std deviation and variance.

Thus,

1) How would one quantify the bonus in terms of a house edge?

2) Playing perfectly with The Wizard's composition dependent advanced strategy it would seem possible that fairly extreme variances induced by randomly varying, large bet size deviations in a game with such a tiny house expectation could possibly produce winnings over the (not necessarily so) short a term, possibly years. Is this simply wishful thinking? If not can it be shown rigorously mathematically (of course the reverse years long loss string could also possibly occur) that such a 'short' term win (or loss) could occur with regularity, predicated entirely on the minuscule house edge.

If this line of reasoning were to hold any water at all I'd think one could get the deposit and (hopefully) clean up in the single deck game, then go back to the (procedurally required) 6 deck game to grind out the rollover at a probable continuing relatively quick loss.
Thanks in advance to responders posting their insights.

What are the actual rules for this game that makes it -0.00956% HE? So you mean -0.0000956? Are you saying it's a player advantage then? Usually that's what the negative sign in front of "House Edge" means.

1) Figure out how many hands you'd have to play to get the bonus. Then figure out your Expected Loss, compare it to your bonus received. If you're expected loss is $100 and you're expected to get $250, then total you put in X action (let's say $25,000 in action) and you made $150... which would mean you're playing at an edge of 0.6%.

How long do you think it'll take you to roll over the 40x wagering requirements? Then, for fun, you can divide your expected win (the $150 example above) by the number of hours you expect to play and figure out that you're probably making like $5/hour (if that).

I wouldn't vary my bets at all. I'd flat bet table minimum, or another amount that my bankroll on the site could withstand with very little Risk of Ruin (RoR).

2) I'm not exactly sure what you're asking... It appears as though you're asking about variance, or standard deviations, which is easy to calculate! The variance of BJ is 1.1, if you flat bet you'll know your Average Bet. Your average advantage (disadvantage) will be the HE of the game. Using this information you can mathematically figure what your EV/SD's will be at any number of hands. Thus, you can check your 3SD's at 100 hands, 1,000 hands, 5,000 hands, 10,000 hands, and so on... If the 3SD is way behind your bankroll (probably will be) then you have a good chance of going broke before you even roll over the bonus (WHICH IS WHAT A LOT OF ONLINE BONUSES EXPECT).

Example:
AvgBet: $5
AvgAdvantage: -.0000956?
OriginalSD = 1.1*5 = 5.5
SD(x hands) = SQRT(x) * OriginalSD

Thus at:

- 100 hands: EV = -$0.05, 3SD = plus or minus $165
- 1,000 hands: EV = -$0.48, 3SD = plus or minus $521.78

Already right here we see that if you have a bankroll of less than $500 you have a decent chance of going broke.

- 5,000 hands: EV = -$2.39, 3SD = plus or minus $1166.73

After 5,000 hands you better have a bankroll of about $1k... If your BR for this is $250, then you're running a massive chance of going bust.

...etc.

EDIT: If you deposit $250, and have 40x rollover, then you'd have to put in 10,000 worth of action... which is 2000 hands at $5 per hand... and playing fast (200 hands per hour) about 10 hours. Your stats are below (assuming $5 avg bet):

Expected Loss = 2000*5*(-.0000956) = -$0.96
Standard Deviation = SQRT(2000) * 5.5 = $245.97, 3SD = $737.90

Bonus win = $249
Overall Edge = TotalAction / Win = 10,000 / 249 = 40.16.
$ per hour = $249 / 10 = $24.90/hour

This is all assuming you can 1) play your rollover requirements all on this game, and 2) that you actually have the house edge correctly, which I doubt... but 3) I hope you notice the 3SD of $737.90... You'd need north of a $500 bankroll to get your RoR low enough that you won't have a good chance to bust.

"What are the actual rules for this game that makes it -0.00956% HE?"

Rules (copied from Bovada site):

The game is played using one deck, which is reshuffled after each hand.
Play one hand per round.
Dealer hits on soft 17.
Player Blackjack pays 3 to 2.
Any other winning hand is paid 1 to 1.
Insurance pays 2 to 1.
No surrender.
Split aces receive only one card.
No re-splitting of aces.
A split ace and a ten-value card is not a Blackjack.




From The Wizard:


Blackjack House Edge Calculator

Enter any set of blackjack rules from the options below. The house edge under proper basic strategy for these rules is indicated in the box below.


Number of decks of cards used: 1 2 4 5 6 8 - (one deck in my case)
Dealer hits or stands on a soft 17: Stands Hits - (Hits)
Player can double after a split: No Yes - (Yes)
Player can double on: Any first two cards 9-11 only 10-11 only - (Any first two cards)
Player can resplit to: 2 3 4 hands - (3 hands)
Player can resplit aces: No Yes - (No)
Player can hit split aces: No Yes - (Yes)
Player loses only original bet against dealer BJ: No Yes - (Yes)
Surrender rule: None Late - (None)
Blackjack pays: 3 to 2 6 to 5 - (3:2)

Optimal results: (0.00956% = 0.0000956)

Basic strategy with cut card: (0.16126%)

Basic strategy with continuous shuffler: (0.04826%)

Methodology: The "optimal results" are based on perfect composition dependent strategy and the dealer shuffling after every hand, which benefits the player. The "basic strategy with cut card" results are based on total dependent basic strategy, like the tables on this site, and the use of a cut card, which favors the dealer. The "basic strategy with continuous shuffler" results are based on total dependent basic strategy, and the dealer shuffling after every hand.


https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/


I've copied his advanced composition dependent strategy and use it religiously.






"Are you saying it's a player advantage then? Usually that's what the negative sign in front of "House Edge" means."

I may be getting my parlance fouled up. I mean 0.0000956 opposed to the player, which of course is tiny, zero in practical terms.



"1) Figure out how many hands you'd have to play to get the bonus."


That's difficult to determine as as the house rollover requirement is 40X the deposit made + the accompanying bonus:

$(250 deposit + 250 bonus)*40 = $20k

must be cycled thru before any funds at all may be withdrawn.

They obviously want to wear you down on the ~ 0.5% 6 deck or another gouging game.

The minimum bet for their 6 deck game is $1, thus 20k hands. For their single deck game it's $25, thus 800 hands, many fewer.

My whole premise is that purposefully widely varying random bet sizing should greatly increase standard deviation, thus variation, with hopeful consequent relatively long term profits possible (of course, things can go south just as easily).
The number of hands to be played would thus be indeterminate.


"If the 3SD is way behind your bankroll (probably will be) then you have a good chance of going broke before you even roll over the bonus (WHICH IS WHAT A LOT OF ONLINE BONUSES EXPECT).

BINGO!

How true. That's largely a large casino profit source.




Another couple questions, somewhat related:


Coin flipping -

Say 17 heads are flipped consecutively (obviously highly improbable but hardly unheard of, with independent trials at probability = 1/2). Why isn't flipping an 18th head << probable given the extreme improbability of the heads string occurring (the increasing improbability of consecutive strings occurring)? Seems contradictory. May be getting my cause & effect fouled up.

How's BJ std deviation figured? How's SD for any game generally figured (independent or dependent trials)?
Thx.

For your coin flipping:

I've played with this and made a "fun" thread discussing the theories behind this as well. The law of independent trials states that the 18th time the coin is flipped it has a 50/50 chance of heads and tails.

However, if you were to do the math on "what are the odds of flipping 18 heads in a row?" the number would be not very likely... .5^18 = .0000038, or about 1 in 265,000.

Both are correct. The odds of you flipping 18 in a row are 1 in about 265,000... However on THIS ONE THROW your odds of throwing a heads is 50/50. I made a thread to kind of poke at this idea in another way, and some enjoyed it and some freaked out about it. I was essentially saying (applying it to your coin flip example) that if you flipped 100,000 heads in a row that means you should expect in the next 100,000 to be comprised of mostly tails (given that this is a large enough sampling size to start ruling out variance)... I was saying this because "technically" each throw is independent and thus you can't predict what will happen on any 1 throw past the actual odds, being 50/50.

Quote: APEppink

///My whole premise is that purposefully widely varying random bet sizing should greatly increase standard deviation, thus variation, with hopeful consequent relatively long term profits possible (of course, things can go south just as easily).
The number of hands to be played would thus be indeterminate...

Well, if you could figure out your average bet in some fashion for your "fluctuating" bets you could in fact figure out how many hands would need to be played.

Playing this $25 game on a $500 bankroll, even flat betting, I can tell you without running the numbers your RoR would be too high. Now add in bet fluctuations from just say $25-$100... You'll go broke the VAST majority of the time before you realize any long term profits. Now if you could do this bonus over and over again if you went broke, then you could potentially consider your BR much larger (and them matching half your bankroll essentially). However as far as I'm away they keep their rollover requirements now, even if you go bust =/.

Make damn sure they allow SINGLE DECK. Many of their promotions excluded SD.

Quote: AxelWolf

Make damn sure they allow SINGLE DECK. Many of their promotions excluded SD.

A very good point I forgot to mention. A lot of online sites don't let you qualify your rollover on their best games. I.E. They make you play the worst games if you want bonuses.

Quote: Romes

A very good point I forgot to mention. A lot of online sites don't let you qualify your rollover on their best games. I.E. They make you play the worst games if you want bonuses.

Another point:

BV has drastically changed there Bonus rules. IIRC if you lose all your money before you finnish the wagering requirements you are on make up before you can get a new bonus.

If I understand correctly even if you have money in prior to a bonus (perhaps you were betting sports) they hold that hostage until you complete the wagering requirements.

If I'm wrong or they change any of this please someone correct me. BV went from the best casino online as far as bonuses, reputation and fast pay outs to one of the worst bonuses and slower pay outs.

I would still play there if you don't care about good bonus rules. Hopefully they will solve the slow payments issue soon.

"A very good point I forgot to mention. A lot of online sites don't let you qualify your rollover on their best games. I.E. They make you play the worst games if you want bonuses."


Yes. That's the way the Bovada promotions are, indeed I think that's probably standard practice in the industry. Their $250 match bonus rollover is applicable only to 6 deck and other games presumably having a house percentage > = to 1/2% or so. Nonetheless the deposit can be used to play single deck with its minuscule house percentage (0.00956%) tho such play makes no contribution to the rollover requirement. Thus I was thinking playing the full $500 (deposit + rollover) on the single deck game I might possibly get lucky and and win a substantial "long term 'short term'" profit then use a fraction of that profit to burn off the 40X rollover on the 6 deck game. This last time I ran up the $500 to nearly $2500 by playing the single deck game, playing the 6 deck game intermittently to run down the rollover, both with hugely varying bet sizes and resulting hi standard deviations and variances. I got to about 55% rollover that way. I was in hog heaven. Then reality reared its ugly head. Lost it all on the single deck game. Couldn't win a hand to save my soul (all the while rigorously playing The Wizard's composition dependent strategery).
I still wonder if it may be possible to win a "long term 'short term'" profit on the single deck game (because of the tiny negative expectation) using flat betting this time. I want to do a three standard deviation analysis beforehand tho so I can see what I'm getting myself into. This all may be wishful thinking, in which case it's back to Vegas and card counting and positive expectation video pokie's.

Quote: AxelWolf

Another point:

BV has drastically changed there Bonus rules. IIRC if you lose all your money before you finnish the wagering requirements you are on make up before you can get a new bonus.

If I understand correctly even if you have money in prior to a bonus (perhaps you were betting sports) they hold that hostage until you complete the wagering requirements.

If I'm wrong or they change any of this please someone correct me. BV went from the best casino online as far as bonuses, reputation and fast pay outs to one of the worst bonuses and slower pay outs.

I would still play there if you don't care about good bonus rules. Hopefully they will solve the slow payments issue soon.

What better reputable online house has better bonus rules in your opinion? I'm new to online betting. Bovada is a slow payer - took me > 3 weeks for my last payout and, you're right, they hold ALL your money hostage till all your rollover requirements are met.

Quote: APEppink

What better reputable online house has better bonus rules in your opinion? I'm new to online betting. Bovada is a slow payer - took me > 3 weeks for my last payout and, you're right, they hold ALL your money hostage till all your rollover requirements are met.

Are you from the USA?

Off the top of my head Win-a-day is 10x WR no make up $100 extra for $100 and they have various other bonuses.

IIRC They have a $30-50 free bonus offer.

Yes, moombeam's Paradise, The People's Republik of California.

Are you pretty sure Win-A-Day is reputable?
Thx.

Quote: APEppink

Yes, moombeam's Paradise, The People's Republik of California.

Are you pretty sure Win-A-Day is reputable?
Thx.

If Axel suggested it, then I'd personally take it as reputable.

Quote: APEppink

Yes, moombeam's Paradise, The People's Republik of California.

Are you pretty sure Win-A-Day is reputable?
Thx.

As far as getting paid yes, I actually got my check very quickly and I did well.
Long story, but I ran my free bonus money up to some serious coin without ever hitting anything. I only played nickels at that point. (Gaffed in my favor?) I haven't played there in a while because the bonuses are to small.
As far as the randomness goes, I always assume they are gaffed, I just hope the bonus value exceeds the gaffary.
Sometimes it's painfully obviously it's rigged, AAMOF that's what lead me to find WOO after I did a search (probably using AOL) after playing Casino Bar I was 99% certain it was gaffed. This was long before I became a member of WOV. Actually it was internet casino gaming that kept bringing me back here to eventually sign up. I didn't trust information on other sites.

----------------------------------------
APEppink"Yes, moombeam's Paradise, The People's Republik of California."

Whatever that means.

But ya, I have been halfheartedly looking for some US friendly "reputable" sites with good bonuses and reasonable wagering requirements as well. It's great to have something to do when you're stuck in an airport, or its 3:00 am and you can't sleep but you don't want to get out of bed.

It's tedious work searching making sure they pay, reading all the T&C, bonus requirements, finding out what games they offer, then actually depositing and cashing out. I always like to take a small bonus first. Then make a successful cash out before I risk anything more than a few hundred. You may not even have enough to cash out so you have to do it again.

I posted here hoping someone would know something but I haven't had much luck.
WOV may not be the best place to get good casino bonus info.

Does anyone know if Bovada and similar onlines are even occasionally gaffed or are they pretty straight, pretty random most of the time?

Quote: APEppink

Does anyone know if Bovada and similar onlines are even occasionally gaffed or are they pretty straight, pretty random most of the time?

Listen you can never really know. If you are trying to use some -ev system or gain some small advantage using bonuses I recommend not taking that risk unless you have time and money to burn.

If you find a significant advantage then I say go for it.

Thx. I'm going to calculate 3 SD confidence interval (using the generic single deck SD = 1.15) and see what the probability of going broke on the 0.0000956 (0.00956%) house edge Bovada single deck BJ game is, depositing $250 and getting their 40X rollover $250 match, using flat betting. I'll try to make money on their single deck game (to which the 40X rollover is inapplicable) then, hopefully, use the profits from that to grind thru their 6 deck BJ game (HE ~ 0.5%) to which the 40X rollover does apply.

Might be wishful thinking (negative player expectation after all) but I'm thinking the tiny negative expectation might give me a fighting chance. I'd think the possibility of 'short term' profits should increase as the house edge shrinks toward zero. At zero I'd think 'short term' profits should definitely be possible.

I read on Wizard somewhere where he says there are (or were?) casino's running positive expectation Boss Media single deck BJ software. I haven't been able to find any on the computer, indeed I haven't found any positive expectation BJ at all. No luck with positive expectation online video poker either.

Quote: APEppink

Thx. I'm going to calculate 3 SD confidence interval (using the generic single deck SD = 1.15) and see what the probability of going broke on the 0.0000956 (0.00956%) house edge Bovada single deck BJ game is, depositing $250 and getting their 40X rollover $250 match, using flat betting. I'll try to make money on their single deck game (to which the 40X rollover is inapplicable) then, hopefully, use the profits from that to grind thru their 6 deck BJ game (HE ~ 0.5%) to which the 40X rollover does apply.

Might be wishful thinking (negative player expectation after all) but I'm thinking the tiny negative expectation might give me a fighting chance. I'd think the possibility of 'short term' profits should increase as the house edge shrinks toward zero. At zero I'd think 'short term' profits should definitely be possible.

I read on Wizard somewhere where he says there are (or were?) casino's running positive expectation Boss Media single deck BJ software. I haven't been able to find any on the computer, indeed I haven't found any positive expectation BJ at all. No luck with positive expectation online video poker either.

Fist off you should buy in for 500 and get the 50% on sports. IIRC that's only 10x rolling over. Use profits from that.

Then bet big on the 6 deck(you at least get wagering credit), if you pump it up, drop down and grind it out?
If you lose pack it up and never play BV again since you will have wagering requirements.

FYI EVERY TIME I BET BIG ON BV BJ I LOST AT A 75% -90% rate.

Drop down ping pong, Jump up again 75% -90%.

Others have experienced the same type of thing.

Whatever, perhaps we are all just unlucky online BJ players.

I can't complain I have done well on VP and slots at BV, it is my favorite online casino. I just have no reason to play there anymore with the new bonus rules.

Bjjhjk

Romes


"OriginalSD = 1.1*5 = 5.5"

Where are you getting the above?

SD(orig) = (variation(?) or SD?)*B(avg) = 1.1*$5 = $5.5

Professional Blackjack, 1994 Ed., p 203, (Stanford Wong) shows BJ variances, {SD = var^(1/2)}

His variances are 1.28 (benchmark), 1.20 (double 10 & 11 only) and 1.32 (double after split), with corresponding SD's - 1.13, 1.10 & 1.15 respectively.

So:

1) Is your equation correct?
2) Is the 1.1 value correct?

Thx.

Quote: Romes

What are the actual rules for this game that makes it -0.00956% HE? So you mean -0.0000956? Are you saying it's a player advantage then? Usually that's what the negative sign in front of "House Edge" means.

1) Figure out how many hands you'd have to play to get the bonus. Then figure out your Expected Loss, compare it to your bonus received. If you're expected loss is $100 and you're expected to get $250, then total you put in X action (let's say $25,000 in action) and you made $150... which would mean you're playing at an edge of 0.6%.

How long do you think it'll take you to roll over the 40x wagering requirements? Then, for fun, you can divide your expected win (the $150 example above) by the number of hours you expect to play and figure out that you're probably making like $5/hour (if that).

I wouldn't vary my bets at all. I'd flat bet table minimum, or another amount that my bankroll on the site could withstand with very little Risk of Ruin (RoR).

2) I'm not exactly sure what you're asking... It appears as though you're asking about variance, or standard deviations, which is easy to calculate! The variance of BJ is 1.1, if you flat bet you'll know your Average Bet. Your average advantage (disadvantage) will be the HE of the game. Using this information you can mathematically figure what your EV/SD's will be at any number of hands. Thus, you can check your 3SD's at 100 hands, 1,000 hands, 5,000 hands, 10,000 hands, and so on... If the 3SD is way behind your bankroll (probably will be) then you have a good chance of going broke before you even roll over the bonus (WHICH IS WHAT A LOT OF ONLINE BONUSES EXPECT).

Example:
AvgBet: $5
AvgAdvantage: -.0000956?
OriginalSD = 1.1*5 = 5.5
SD(x hands) = SQRT(x) * OriginalSD

Thus at:

- 100 hands: EV = -$0.05, 3SD = plus or minus $165
- 1,000 hands: EV = -$0.48, 3SD = plus or minus $521.78

Already right here we see that if you have a bankroll of less than $500 you have a decent chance of going broke.

- 5,000 hands: EV = -$2.39, 3SD = plus or minus $1166.73

After 5,000 hands you better have a bankroll of about $1k... If your BR for this is $250, then you're running a massive chance of going bust.

...etc.

EDIT: If you deposit $250, and have 40x rollover, then you'd have to put in 10,000 worth of action... which is 2000 hands at $5 per hand... and playing fast (200 hands per hour) about 10 hours. Your stats are below (assuming $5 avg bet):

Expected Loss = 2000*5*(-.0000956) = -$0.96
Standard Deviation = SQRT(2000) * 5.5 = $245.97, 3SD = $737.90

Bonus win = $249
Overall Edge = TotalAction / Win = 10,000 / 249 = 40.16.
$ per hour = $249 / 10 = $24.90/hour

This is all assuming you can 1) play your rollover requirements all on this game, and 2) that you actually have the house edge correctly, which I doubt... but 3) I hope you notice the 3SD of $737.90... You'd need north of a $500 bankroll to get your RoR low enough that you won't have a good chance to bust.

For Bovada -


Here's what I get:


SD confidence intervals -

1 SD, ~ 68%
2 SD's, ~95%
3 SD's, ~99.7%
4 SD's, ~99.993%
5 SD's, ~99.99994%

I read somewhere The Wiz says he wouldn't suspect a casino unless players were getting frequent returns at or below (-4 SD's + PE) and wouldn't report a casino as dishonest unless losses occurred frequently at or below (-5 SD's + PE).

D - deposit ($250)
B - bonus ($250)
R - rollover rate (40X, inapplicable to their single deck game)
b - average bet ($5, 6 deck, $25, single deck)
N - number of hands, N = RO/b = $20 000/$5 = 4 000 hands (6 deck game), 800 hands (single deck game - $20 000 chosen arbitrarily)
HE - house edge (0.005 for 6 deck, 0.0000956 for single deck)
PE - player expectation, PE = HE*RO = 0.005*$20 000 = $100 (6 deck), = 0.0000956*$20 000 = $1.92 (single deck)
RO - rollover, R = RO*(D+B) = 40*($500) = $20k
SD(bj) - BJ generic SD (= 1.15)
SD(orig) - original SD, SD(orig) = SD(BJ)*b = 1.15*$5 = $5.75 (6 deck), 1.15*$25 = $28.75 (single deck)
SD(N) - SD applicable to N hands, SD(N) = SD(orig)*sqrt (N)
= $5.75*sqrt (4 000) ~ $363.66 (6 deck)
= $28.75*sqrt (800) ~ $813.17 (single deck)

Thus -

For Bovada's 6 deck BJ game:

1 SD ~ $363.66, 68% confidence my return would lie in the interval [-SD - PE, SD] = [-$363.66-$100, $363.66] = [-$463.66, $363.66]
2 SD's ~ $727.32, [-$827, 727.32]
3 SD's ~ $1 090.99, [-$1 190.99, $1 090.99]

For their single deck:

1 SD ~ $813.17, [-$811.25, $813.17]
2 SD ~ $1 626.35, [-$1 624.43, 1 626.35]
3 SD ~ $2 439.52, [-$2 437.62, $2 439.52]

Dunno if that's workable or not. I do wonder about these tiny (e.g. Bovada's single deck BJ, craps with > 20X odds etc.) and zero (e.g. Sta. Ana Star Casino, Bernalillo, NM in their free 4 & 10 buy and lay bets in their craps game) house percentages. Seems like there has to be 'short' term profits to be made, the house percentages really only kicking in if you bet 'many' hands.
Of course, positive expectation is better but they're few and far between. All I've been able to find are physical BJ with excellent card counting and video pokies with gigantic variance and consequent bankroll requirements.

That's mah story an ahm stikin to it.

I'd appreciate anyone's insight, opinion.
Thx.

Quote: AxelWolf

Fist off you should buy in for 500 and get the 50% on sports. IIRC that's only 10x rolling over. Use profits from that.

Then bet big on the 6 deck(you at least get wagering credit), if you pump it up, drop down and grind it out?
If you lose pack it up and never play BV again since you will have wagering requirements.

FYI EVERY TIME I BET BIG ON BV BJ I LOST AT A 75% -90% rate.

Drop down ping pong, Jump up again 75% -90%.

Others have experienced the same type of thing.

Whatever, perhaps we are all just unlucky online BJ players.

I can't complain I have done well on VP and slots at BV, it is my favorite online casino. I just have no reason to play there anymore with the new bonus rules.

I know know how you feel re BJ losses. My online gambling experience is limited, indeed this last Bovada BJ game was my first ever. I deposited the $250, got their 40X rollover match ($250) and went to town. By weeks' end I was ahead nearly $2k playing both their single and 6 deck games, and had reached ~50% rollover. I thot I was God's gift to online BJ. The next nite reality reared its ugly head and I lost it all. Every penny. Big bets, small bets, single deck, six deck, made no difference whatever (using The Wiz' composition based advanced strategery exclusively). Whether that was just their RNG working overtime or they slipped me an (automated?) beat back software, I haven't a clue), hence my sudden interest in statistics, confidence intervals etc).

Quote: APEppink

I know know how you feel re BJ losses. My online gambling experience is limited, indeed this last Bovada BJ game was my first ever. I deposited the $250, got their 40X rollover match ($250) and went to town. By weeks' end I was ahead nearly $2k playing both their single and 6 deck games, and had reached ~50% rollover. I thot I was God's gift to online BJ. The next nite reality reared its ugly head and I lost it all. Every penny. Big bets, small bets, single deck, six deck, made no difference whatever (using The Wiz' composition based advanced strategery exclusively). Whether that was just their RNG working overtime or they slipped me an (automated?) beat back software, I haven't a clue), hence my sudden interest in statistics, confidence intervals etc).

SAME STORY DIFFERENT DAY DIFFERENT PERSON.

Quote: APEppink

...So:

1) Is your equation correct?
2) Is the 1.1 value correct?

Thx.

The 1.1 is a quick use for SD... The real value is about 1.14, but of course pending rules/decks/etc/etc. 1.1, or even better 1.15 is a very safe number to use for your preliminary math.

Quote: APEppink

Might be wishful thinking (negative player expectation after all)

99% of the questions on this forum, in a nutshell.

You want to talk about negative expectations tho, look at state lotteries. State % has to be at least 30%. Yet... Luck. Winners are set for life. Unless someone scams them out of it or they p___ it off, as usually happens. Gigantic variance, longer than several lifetimes likely to ever move into substantial positive territory.

Now we're getting a bit in to apples and oranges =P. Agreed the vast majority (of winners) throw it all away or can't handle it themselves.