Table choice

Heading to Vegas next month with a limited (~$1K) bankroll. Would I be better off at a $5 game with a good spread (1:10) or at a $25 game with smaller spread (1:4). Both are 6 deck, 3:2, das, rsa. The $25 game also offers S17 and Surr (.29 he). I typically play $10 games and walk away with $200 - $300 playing casually over 4-5 days, but $10 games are getting hard to find on the strip, unless you're willing to play 6:5. So I'm trying to decide whether to play green or go off strip. As a side note, will 10-12 hours of green play get me anything with MLife?

I am not real knowledgable about Vegas games or Mlife, so someone else can chime in on that part. A 4 to 1 spread on 6 deck game even with good rules is barely above break even. Also a 1000 dollar bankroll has a strong chance of going bust, so if you are trying to play a winning game you need to find a 3 to 2 6 deck that you can spread like 12 to 1 or back count. Off strip like a stations property will have playable games at a lower minimum. The higher 25 unit probably will not generate much in comps on the strip. Best of luck.

Thanks for the feedback. Confirms what I suspected, and what I've seen practicing with CVBJ. I enjoy playing on the strip, and I could step up the bankroll - just don't want to. I play to win, but it's not a "job". Think I'll try building my bankroll off-strip. If I make some good money, then maybe move.

Thanks again.

Hi Rio, and welcome to the forums!

My initial thought was a 1-4 spread would be about break even too, but in plugging the numbers in you could actually make a little money on it. My bigger concern is your RoR on a $1k bankroll as you'd only have 10 max bets. What do you do if you get a good count, calling for $100 bet, then you split double double and lose. That's almost half your trip bankroll. You could lose your bankroll in 1 day, then you couldn't play the rest of your trip... or are you able/willing to put more funds to the trip at that point?

1-4 spread ($25-$100), TC < 1 = $25, TC = 1 = $50, TC = 2 = $75, TC >= 3 = $100 will yield about $13/hour, assuming about 100 hands per hour, wonging out at TC < -1, and 75% pen.

1-10 spread ($5-$50), max bet out early at TC +3, will yield about $8/hour, again about 100 hands per hour, wonging out at TC < -1, and 75% pen.

The 1-10 spread still only gives you about 20 max bets, but that would cut your RoR in half (from wherever it's at). The real question is are you replenish-able should you go bust? You should really stick to the smaller limits as on any trip I personally like to have about 30 max bets, but to each their own. I just think 10 max bets you're just about "gambling" anyways, considering you could have 1 bad run of max bets and lose it all in 1 day.

p.s. Will you be in Vegas on April 16th? That's going to be our Wizard Of Vegas Spring Fling meetup. A lot of fun and intelligent members will be attending and it's usually a good time, if you're in town and want to participate.

Thanks Romes! I've been scanning the forums for a while and finally decided to jump in.

Unfortunately I'll be arriving the day after the Spring Fling. Just in time for the NAB convention of course, but it's the only week I can get away until next spring.

Yep, I realize the RoR is high for $1k at $25 min. Probably not great even for $10 min. I don't know the numbers, but have played enough to experience first hand what happens when you get a bad run of cards while betting heavy into a strong count. And yes I can replenish my bankroll if necessary (after a heated discussion with my wife over why I'm dipping into her shoe budget). But will I? . . . . don't know. As a side note, I've generally done well over the years, coming home ahead probably 3 trips out of 4 and never losing more than a couple hundred. My mistake has been not documenting my "bankroll" so each trip is new start. I know it doesn't make a difference in actual dollars, but it would be a lot easier to say I'm gambling with a $10K bankroll if I had kept track and knew that was my cumulative winnings. That's changing this trip.

If the BJ Survey is correct, the Palms (happens to be where I'm staying) has 6 deck $5 tables with .57 edge. That's where I'm planning to start. Either that or it looks like the Golden Nugget has a pretty decent $10 game. TI looks decent as well with a 2-deck $10 game at .46 he. Hopefully I can build a bankroll for my next trip.

Follow-up question on wong-ing. I've been using REKO the last few years. I'd used Hi-Opt for a number of years before that with mixed results. Calculating TC always seemed to be 1 step too much, and I was missing opportunities to bet into strong counts. REKO seems to work better for me since it uses a running count (no TC calculation). It may not be as strong, but if I'm making fewer mistakes it should be a better strategy for me. I start with an initial RC of 0 betting 2 units ($10). If RC goes negative I back off to 1 unit. I escalate my bets at following counts 17 = 5 units; 26 = 10 units; 32 = 15 units (yes I've decided to spread 1-15 if I can find a $5 min). I play BS until I get to 26, then change marginal plays (stand on 12 vs 2-4, double A8 vs 5/6, take insurance, etc.). So the question is at what point should I wong out? I'm thinking at RC = -10, and maybe that becomes -5 at 50% pen, but don't have any math to back that up. In case you're not familiar, REKO is an unbalanced count; 2-7 = +1; 10-A = -1.

Does anyone know if the BJ Survey is accurate for red chip games at the Palms, GN, and TI?

Thanks

10-12 hours at 25 will get you zip at mlife. They no loner do express comps and you are lucky if anyone does even a breakfast comp for you with single green chip play

Thanks. Confirms what I've heard elsewhere.

My wife has a friend who plays $1 slots on MLife. Gets free rooms all the time. I'm sure it's all about expected loss. Wife keeps asking why I don't play slots. I've heard there are ways to maybe not beat slots, but to essentially break even. But I have no motivation to study it. Slots bore the crap out of me.

There are ways

As far as friend let's say this
1 slots even at 3 dollars a spin x 5 spins a minute equals 900 an hour equals 90 theo ( that's being conservative spin wise)
If she plays the same ten hours that's a 900 expected loss

You play 25 a hand at 80 hands an hour gives you 2k bet per hour and maybe only 40 theo so over 10 hours it's 400 theo. Less then half of what she has

Quote: Rio481

...Calculating TC always seemed to be 1 step too much, and I was missing opportunities to bet into strong counts. REKO seems to work better for me since it uses a running count (no TC calculation). It may not be as strong, but if I'm making fewer mistakes it should be a better strategy for me...

Emphasis added as I couldn't agree more with this statement. There is no 1 right count. The count you make the least amount of mistakes with is the right count for you!

I would wong out when the TC < -1... off the top of my head I'm not sure what that equates to in REKO. At less than TC -1 I would sit out, feigning I've lost too many and I want a break, go to the bathroom, take a phone call (or make one), etc, etc.

TI is very sweaty, but if you're sticking to $10-$50, perhaps you'll have better luck. Also depends on how you look I suppose. I've never had much luck downtown as I'm a younger looking guy and I feel I get profiled when I walk in the door. So if you don't have this issue you might have different experiences than me. You'll find a bounty of $5 and $10 games just off the strip that have "decent" rules. Boulder highway is okay as well.

p.s. There's another thread of people getting together Sunday, the day after the meetup, FYI.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/las-vegas-attractions/other/25309-2016-spring-fling-sunday-agenda/#post519647

So I thought about my wong count for a few minutes, and the math really isn't hard. At the start of the shoe (assuming 6 decks) TC would be -2 at RC= -9 (-9 / 6 decks = -1.5, round to -2). At mid shoe TC of -2 would be RC= -5 (-5 / 3 decks = -1.67, round to -2). To keep it simple those will be my wong counts. Don't want to over complicate it by trying to estimate decks after each round.

I've never had a problem with heat - guess I don't look too scary. The closest I ever came to having a problem was 2 years ago at Bellagio. I was playing a $15 S17 game (was shocked to still find that on the strip). The count was moderately positive and I was betting $50 - $75. Just happened to catch a good run of cards and went up about $600 by the end of the shoe. Pit started to watch my play, so the next shoe I made a few erratic bets with a neutral count for about half the shoe, then colored up and left. Didn't go back to Bellagio that trip, but played a couple other MGM properties with no issues.

Not sure I'll be in town early enough on the 17th to join the festivities, but I'll keep up with the thread just in case.

Thanks!

Wait a minute . . . suffered a senior moment there. That TC calculation isn't right. It's an unbalanced count - there are 6 small cards and 5 big cards. Not sure how I'd convert to TC, but since I'm counting more small cards than big I'm thinking I should consider wong-ing at any negative RC once I get more than a few hands into the shoe.

Thoughts?