Erroneous Heat?

It's been a few years since I've played BJ and counted cards.

Semi-professional, but I'm happy with the bit I've grinded out over time at relatively small stakes. Been backed off once in Vegas, tolerated at other places because I'm not a bottom-line threat. I don't count to seriously augment my financial situation; it's just a nice fun live math experiment. I like to play BJ and I hate losing.

Recently, I experimented with Oscar's Grind (1 whole session at the casino, a few hours in simulations). This is a progressive betting system that doesn't change EV at all and I don't subscribe to it as an effective method of making money (in fact, just OG and BS you'll lose more that just BS and flat betting).

I wanted to gauge casino reaction; I ended up progressing at one point to 20 times my original bet in a 2-deck game. Later in the evening I was chatting with a floor person and mentioned I was taking a trip to Vegas in a few days. One of the things he said to me was "hey, a piece of advice: don't spread so much; I tagged you as an advantage player right away." Now, mind you, I was actively NOT counting and it was the first time I'd been at this casino (Southern California)

I almost fell out of my chair because I wasn't counting at all, but I was spreading quite a bit. I wanted to ask him to call security and run the video and try to correlate it to the count but found his perception very interesting. I also noticed another floor person (in talking with him, an old Vegas pro; nice discussion about K. Uston and the days of the late 70's; saw him counting the discards after an old geezer spread massively in the same game.) He kept asking about my 'system' (There is no 'system'; they're all Bull-Sxxx and you lose in the end and I'm just here to have fun was my answer).

Another nice point was they were pretty cool, and everyone I spoke with seemed to HATE their upper management. I almost laughed because they were like "hey, we know you're an advantage player but we hate our employer so much we hope you make a bunch". Which was weird because I wasn't counting at ALL.

So ... my dilemma .... how can you camouflage a bit if any spread even one not correlating to the True Count get's on the radar of the floor? Am I just resigned to 30 minute sessions and hopping from casino to casino forever? I was hoping to get established as a 'system ' player so I count maybe get an hour or even 90 minutes at any one location.

At the time I was playing a $25 (with spreads up to $500); my upcoming Vegas trip I'm looking to bet black to purple. Is there any alternative to hit-and-runs, screw the camo and just be a nomad?


mel of royal mcbee

Some thoughts:

Mistaking a progression for raising money with the count, is just weak by the floor people. Weak and/or lazy. It's a very sad day when progression players draw heat or are backed off. They SHOULD be given the royal treatment. Sure a 1-20 spread is going to get their attention, but they should easily be able to distinguish between progressions and card counters. Backing off a progression player, playing a negative EV game should be the last thing they want to do, but I do see some casinos and pit people that do exactly this. El Cortez is famous for this. I personally have witnessed them back off a number of players that were just varying wagers....no more spreading with the count than jumping over the moon.

Sounds like a sweaty place you are describing to me not only because of not distinguishing between varying bets WITH the count and just varying bets. But, in addition that flipping through the discard rack is often done by places just to gauge the reaction of the player. Comments about system or even card counting as likewise sometimes used just to gauge a players reaction.

I would be real careful with people acting "pretty cool", telling you they hate their employer. That kind of thing is done to get you to let your guard down. In the end, that employer pays their salary....you don't. Where do you think their loyalty REALLY lies. In addition, most pit people do there job, if for no other reason than if they don't....if they overlook your play and it draws someone else's attention, then they have to answer to someone.

Casino's are different as far as tolerance levels, but in general $500 is a threshold number. If you are going to spread to $500, you are better off staying just below $500, like $400 or even $450. If you are going to crack that $500 threshold, you might as well go on and go above it. It doesn't make sense just to stop at that key point that is an important threshold at many places.

If you are really playing progression and not moving money with the count, none of that should matter, but as you have experienced, what should matter and what does matter isn't always the same thing, especially with weak pit people taking short cuts. :(

Thanks for the reply. It was the first time I played a progression system, and I don't believe in them as any long-term strategy for making money; it was really just to see how they'd react. Your point about where their loyalties lies is well taken and heeded.

I think I heard 4 or 5 dealers complaining (can't get a day off i need, giving me a hard time with the medical leave I need, etc.) along with the pit. But I get your point about judging reaction.

Regarding the $500 point, just coincidence playing Oscar's Grind, and I was hoping to get enough spread to see or not see reaction. I have to believe security ran down the count and saw no betting correlation ... but that's just my supposition.

As a side-note, my day job involves interaction with a person that also does consulting for casinos. Some of the stuff I've heard doesn't line up but occasionally I do hear tidbits about the number of persons on security, their perspective, and some of the things they do regarding advantage players. I discount it a lot, but occasionally something does make sense.

What I'm trying to find is some measure of camo to spread 1-6 or 1-8 at DD w/o too much heat over sessions on an hour or hour and a half with a larger bankroll and bet now. Previously I've played 6-deck shoes and have been able to spread 1-20 w/ no issues ($5 min); probably more along the lines of a casino that sees me as no threat rather than me being clever.

My first thought about the pit was that they're some 'dumb sons a britches' but in reflecting on your reply it makes sense how they could be trying to gauge me. I've never spread that much counting before at DD.

My feeling is that now that I can bet higher I'm probably stuck at 1 or 2 rounds of a good count, spread like hell, and then just leave. Perhaps just fantasy I could find a way to stick around a bit longer but I'm still young enough to walk a lot.

FWIW I have found a couple casinos that tolerate me at low limits (again $5-$100 or even $150, taking breaks at neg. counts (bathroom, cell phone, etc) ); I can sit there all night at 6-Deck for years and no-one has bothered me. Granted I make make < $40 an hour ev .... but all it takes is a change in management or philosophy and that could change overnight for the worse.

I'm virtually resigned that w/o team play it's a grind.

mel

If you want a simple and effective camo, just raise your bet only after a win and lowering only after a loss, and with no resets between shuffles. This slashes your win rate by about 30% compared to moving bet perfectly with count, but you can play much longer and milk casinos for freebies.

In many non Vegas casinos, if you even look
like you're using a progression or a system,
and they don't know you, they will label you
an AP even if you're not. It means they'll
watch you to see how you do, not that they're
going to kick you out.

Welcome, MRM! Nice first post.

I have a friend who plays at purple-to-brown (5K cheques in case I have the color wrong) 1 - 3 hands at a time, and they roll out the carpet for him (as they should). I don't think he counts (I haven't wanted to ask); he just plays BS and sometimes Martingales out of frustration, but his spread is 1-30 units (occasionally even larger w/ black to brown). He psyches his bet sizing as far as I can tell. One weekend in Vegas he won $160K; the next month he went back and dropped $250K.

For that kind of play, they put a reserve on the table for him 24/7 with a dealer waiting while he's on property, stock a variety of food behind the table, push other people away unless he wants them there, and give him his own Floor while he's playing (not to mention the highest available RFB).

Anyway, I think you should go in very publicly as a med-high roller. Get casino credit for at least 10K set up ahead of time, get a player's card, ask for a host, take markers at the table, always show your card and ask to be rated, pay your markers every day. Give them every reason to think you want a relationship with them and you have nothing to hide. There's no way they'll chase you off the table if you do all that, no matter how much you spread.

From what I've observed, key AP/counter tactics are anonymity, disguise, cash only, hit and run. You're not playing as an AP, so why get mistaken for one? You want to be identified as a premium customer, and all of those I mentioned above will counteract any red flags from mistaken surveillance. If they claimed that, and it were me playing like that, I would ask them to count back the decks/play the tapes before 86'ing me, ask for a dinner comp while they review it, and check back in an hour for their apology (and more play).

As usual, BBB.... an excellent analysis.

The casinos get worried about the loners who not want to use cards and reveal themselves. Surveillance and executives are there for a reason and are always told to 'build a file' and 'run him thru the computer' before doing anything serious.

Its the open and honest types that can put a casino at rest.

Quote: beachbumbabs

I have a friend who plays at purple-to-brown (5K cheques in case I have the color wrong) 1 - 3 hands at a time, and they roll out the carpet for him (as they should). I don't think he counts (I haven't wanted to ask); he just plays BS and sometimes Martingales out of frustration, but his spread is 1-30 units (occasionally even larger w/ black to brown). He psyches his bet sizing as far as I can tell. One weekend in Vegas he won $160K; the next month he went back and dropped $250K.

At those levels, NO ONE is flying under any radar, or playing unnoticed. Even if one chooses to play anonymous (no players card) for whatever reason, you can bet the casino knows who he is in detail. You can be equally as sure the casino has run an extensive evaluation of his play and either determined he is not counting, or occasionally they decide that the player is moving money with the count but still is not playing a winning game. They sometimes even tolerate a slightly winning game if the player has a history of playing negative EV games as well or has a spouse or companion that plays negative EV games.

So, I think this situation is very different than what the OP was getting at, as to what levels he can play without drawing too much attention.

Thank you for your reply.

Your friend plays at a much higher dollar amount that I could financially and emotionally tolerate.

I'm not getting casino credit; I've wired front money (mid 5 figures) and what I'd like to do this time around is to play a break-even game and take the RF (or RFB if they'll give that to me). I see betting black to purple. I've never played at this level before so I am expecting a lot more scrutiny. I'm playing at a place a step down from the the upper echelon.

Do they evaluate every time at this level; for example, if I establish that I'm not threat over a period of time can I then play a little better game to tease out a few more dollars?

I also don't want to be the biggest player at the table (I'm sure I won't be), nor do I want the ego stroking (grew up poor). I basically want a break even game for Room and Food and maybe set up a situation for later on.

Thanks for your reply, I learn more each day.

Mel

Interesting reply; how do they get the detailed info if playing anonymous?

What about scrutiny at, say, a max bet of 2k?

mel

Quote: kewlj

At those levels, NO ONE is flying under any radar, or playing unnoticed. Even if one chooses to play anonymous (no players card) for whatever reason, you can bet the casino knows who he is in detail. You can be equally as sure the casino has run an extensive evaluation of his play and either determined he is not counting, or occasionally they decide that the player is moving money with the count but still is not playing a winning game. They sometimes even tolerate a slightly winning game if the player has a history of playing negative EV games as well or has a spouse or companion that plays negative EV games.

So, I think this situation is very different than what the OP was getting at, as to what levels he can play without drawing too much attention.

You may be right, but I read that mel wants to play without counting and be allowed to spread. If he plays 1-30 units without counting and makes no other AP moves (plays openly), he should get to do exactly as he wants. Sure, there are good reasons not to get casino credit lines and to play quiet, and I'm not saying he has to accept fawning or act hi-roller-y. I don't, and I play one level lower than him, and they fight for my business, too, though I don't go around asking for things or acting like the Casino Queen while playing.

The point, though, is that he's getting backed off when he's not counting. So I'm suggesting that he START the relationship with all the trappings of a HiRoller so he establishes with them as a non-threat. Once he has the relationship, with the good PB notes, the credit line, the markers in good faith, then he has a huge "desirable player" profile established and he can play his game unmolested.

Quote: melroyalmcbee

Thank you for your reply.

Your friend plays at a much higher dollar amount that I could financially and emotionally tolerate.

I'm not getting casino credit; I've wired front money (mid 5 figures) and what I'd like to do this time around is to play a break-even game and take the RF (or RFB if they'll give that to me). I see betting black to purple. I've never played at this level before so I am expecting a lot more scrutiny. I'm playing at a place a step down from the the upper echelon.

Do they evaluate every time at this level; for example, if I establish that I'm not threat over a period of time can I then play a little better game to tease out a few more dollars?

I also don't want to be the biggest player at the table (I'm sure I won't be), nor do I want the ego stroking (grew up poor). I basically want a break even game for Room and Food and maybe set up a situation for later on.



Thanks for your reply, I learn more each day.

Mel

Wiring front money is a good move, too, along the lines of what I'm describing. The reason I brought up my friend is because, even though he's playing a level above yours, he's spreading even wider than you want to without anybody thinking he's Ap'ing. I play a level below you, the best game I can without Ap'ing and don't get backed off. These are the BP moves I've used and seen to get treated the best they can and welcomed. Doesn't mean you have to be flashy with your money or bets - just that you have to give them something to base a decision on other than just evaluating your spread. Using their credit/player's club/hosts/markers does that; they like giving you value that reinforces your relationship with them. But that's part of what you want to establish, that they see you participating in their largesse and playing. Having a credit line isn't the same as withdrawing all of it to play with, for example. Harrah's and the LVH specifically used to (and may still) give you "bonus" points in their ranking of you if you have a credit line with them, use it or not.

Again, the point of this is for you to spread your game without setting off the AP alarms. Get established, then relax and enjoy.

Quote: beachbumbabs

You may be right, but I read that mel wants to play without counting and be allowed to spread.

Yeah, I thought that too, based on his initial post and my first reply was based on that assumption. But in reading his responses, I am not so sure that his his plan for the future, but I will let him speak for himself.

BTW, LVH, now Westgate, is under new ownership/management and no longer runs that promotion, nor puts a premium on credit line.

I want to set up a situation where I can play for a bit of +EV + comps.

Where I'm at in life and financially, I can play bigger now but that is uncharted territory for me. I recognize that 1) this level is new to me and I need to learn and adapt and 2) lots of smarter folks than me are out there so I want to learn.

I make all the money I need at my day job, but this keeps the blood flowing. I have no need other than psychological to make money counting.

If, at the end of the day, if I still need to be in the shadows, play for 1/2 hour and leave anonymously then that is what I will do. However, I would be willing to sacrifice a bit of EV to sit my weary bones down for a while longer and still have some longevity.

For me it's the duality of the adrenaline and reason. I've wrestled, boxed, and mma most of my life but don't hurt people out of the ring. I drink and like it but it's controlled for 25+ years, I've started businesses and been successful but also have taken risks as well and a few failures too. I've never been on tilt, but have been down enough to feel the pull ..... I want to feel alive but I need the math and science to back it up. It's the rush of a roller coaster .... safe but the thrill ... I can't stop my mind ... it's simply a psychological thing at this point. I've paid for the houses, socked enough away that retirement is assured, taken care of my family ... but I need ... need. to take a bit from the casinos. If I'm going to do something, I have to be good at it, better than most. and in the end, that is it. The rush but not the self destructiveness.

I wish I could help you more mel, but I am that guy, playing that style that you are trying to avoid. I play short sessions, move around and try to stay within each casinos comfort level.

I know and network with some other players that use a different approach, of trying to play a little longer in one spot. They employ various forms of cover, which comes with a cost. In this day and age, with higher house edges to overcome, and advances in technology working against us as far as detection and databases, a card counter's edge is very slim.....slimmer than ever, and I don't believe we can afford to give too much back in the form of cover.

Plus, with those advances working against us, I believe cover is less effective, buying you less time than it used to, which is really the goal. The days of trying to "trick" casinos and pit are over. The way to longevity has been replaced by playing within tolerance levels, and that includes both betting levels as well as short sessions. You don't want to rock the boat. It is better to score small, short, quick wins than to play longer and score bigger wins that someone has to answer for.

But again....I am speaking of my own experiences and chosen style of attack, based on those experiences.

and i think you are right.

i was wishfully thinking otherwise.

i can be a ninja.

no worries.

I'll let you know how this upcoming weekend goes.

Quote: melroyalmcbee

and i think you are right.

i was wishfully thinking otherwise.

i can be a ninja.

no worries.

I'll let you know how this upcoming weekend goes.

If your goal is to play longer sessions, while being willing to give up some EV, you can absolutely do that. I don't want to speak for KJ, but I think he's giving his reasons for why he doesn't find value in sacraficing EV for time... though he's doing this professionally where as you want to do this for the competition and thrill of victory over the house. If you're not looking to make big bucks and you don't "need" the money that comes from blackjack, then you can absolutely accomplish what you want and you don't have to be a ninja. It will simply take a bit more homework.

Set up everything as you normally would, your spread, the game, rules, etc... Get your hourly EV for the game. Then, dampen your spread a bit to something you feel will be tolerated at your level. If you need help/experience with this, feel free to post and I'm sure people playing those levels currently can chime in.

Next, add in your "cover with a cost" values. Say you play down to TC -3 instead of TC -1... And let's say every time you hit TC -2 you up your bet from 1 unit to 4 units. This should be enough to get some attention IF someone is watching your play, and if they run it down you'll be upping your bet in a negative count. This, as KJ pointed out though, comes with a cost. However, if your end goal isn't a large sum of money, but as you stated: small +EV and comps, then this could very well work for you with the level you're at.

If you're playing green to mid black, you can probably pull $100+ per hour in EV. After tapering down the spread, playing a bit more negative shoes, and adding cover with a cost this might chunk your EV down to $50/hour, but this is what you're looking for... a profit and comps with some longevity. You're still going to have to find some tolerances of different casinos on your own, as even the sweat joints might still look at your play, but for the most part, you can get right to where you want to be =).

Thanks for the reply; you described exactly what I want to do and my reasons for it.

I'd advise looking into Ian Anderson's ultimate gambit approach. Devising your own rules and abiding by them may prove to be beneficial. I gotta say, I envy your life a bit, it sounds like it's been really rewarding and exciting!

Thanks Minty ... it's been a long bumpy poor road with more hard work than I wished. I am comfortable but by not means rich, except that I have such a wonderful family!