break even game= losing game?

I have read from a few places that one should avoid playing a break even game... as the large number of hands required to approach expectation will mean you will likely lose anyways. I am not sure if thats accurate or not and why? What constitutes a "break even" ? just cents of +EV?

Ive been patiently practicing my hi-lo skills and am starting to get to the point where i can actually keep count and play well in an actual casino environment, still more practice needed but if I decide to do a small 5-25 spread on a low limit table to avoid heat, i think this game would net a few dollars an hour correct? The game in question is a 6 deck game with 75-80% pen, H17, DAS, LS, RSA3x HE is like -.48% Is this worth playing? With a 2500-3000$ bankroll can i really expect to "Not lose" my money?? a 1-8 spread may be possible. The pit where i play is pretty laid back, ive spotted people counting before spreading pretty big and i didn't "notice" them getting any heat. Maybe they don't sweat low limit counters....

Quote: brettecantwell

I have read from a few places that one should avoid playing a break even game... as the large number of hands required to approach expectation will mean you will likely lose anyways.

I assume this depends on the game, and its variance. I don't see how this is a problem with "Coin Toss; pays even money (and no commission or other fees) if you win", but if it's a slot machine that has 8000 different results, 7999 of which lose and the 8000th pays 8000 coins, then this statement makes more sense.

In an even game, whichever side has the larger bankroll is favored to win, assuming that the play continues until one side is broke.

For example, if a player has 10 units and is flipping a coin against a casino with 30 units, then the player will lose his 10 units three times for every 1 time he wins the casino's 30 units. In other words, his probability of winning is 25%.

Quote: teliot

In an even game, whichever side has the larger bankroll is favored to win, assuming that the play continues until one side is broke.

For example, if a player has 10 units and is flipping a coin against a casino with 30 units, then the player will lose his 10 units three times for every 1 time he wins the casino's 30 units. In other words, his probability of winning is 25%.

Gambler's Ruin?

Ok that makes sense. So playing blackjack then making sure there is a few dollars profit/hr... will that help negate a scenario like that from happening... Im sure a more profitable game will help even more but i am just trying to get an idea if a few dollar profit/hour game is worth playing, assuming you main goal is not making much money, just to have fun and try not to lose money to the house long term...

If your goal is to just have fun and minimizing your losses, focus your attention on learning as much as you can about the optimum strategy for that game.

You will read a lot of people are making X and Y dollars using this strategy or that. And they may be. But, consider this: overtime, the more you play, even with optimum strategy, you will lose. The more you play, the more you will lose. The only question is - how much - and will the comps - food, rooms, shows, etc - bring you back to the +EV side. Comps aren't cash - but amusement does have value. The question is - how many utils of satisfaction do you get from playing a given game?

You can certainly win money - even without optimum strategy - but you can't expect to continue to win. You have to know when to stop and sock away the winnings.

Pick a low limit table with a gorgeous and almost topless dealer. Learn perfect basic strategy for the 'exact' game you're playing. You can practice this at home while mild porn is on the TV. Don't get caught doing anything shady like counting cards, hole carding, etc. You'll be fine.....maybe. ;-)

Play for comps. if spreading politely.

Hi Brett, let's take a look at some numbers and scenarios =).

A "break even" game is you playing, and counting, with a large enough spread to make say, $1-$2 per hour. It's going to depend on what's "exactly" break even from player to player pending your counting skills, how well you have deviations memorized, etc. If you're making 1-2 mistakes per hour costing you $5/hour then you need to counter act that with $5/hour in EV. If you make very few mistakes, then you only need anything positive, like $1/hour. Breaking even means that your expectation in "the long run" is ever so slightly positive... due to player mistakes/etc that will inevitably cost you a few bucks. The long run can be generically taken as 1,000 hours of play, or a bit more precisely (from my calculations) about 100,000 hands. 100,000 hands isn't exactly "the long run" but it's where my calculations fall in order to NOT be negative. I calculated that after 100,000 hands even if I am 3 standard deviations to the left of EV I'll still be "even."

Next, your concerns for Risk of Ruin (RoR) can be simulated. As an old school rule, 100x your big bet should get your RoR down pretty low. If you're playing a $5-$25 spread, then your max bet is $25, and 100x that would be $2500. Thus, if you have a $3000 bankroll, I'd think you should be fairly comfortable at that level/spread.

Next, if you're thinking of making a few bucks per hour, then you're probably going to want to up your spread. If you're playing a 6 deck $5 game, those are pretty much ignored by pit bosses (in most of my experiences). Not saying there couldn't be a small joint that is concerned about all tables, but I've practically gotten away with murder at $5 tables before spreading $5-$90 in a fairly obvious fashion. If you see others regularly spread pretty high, I'd want to recommend you at least play a $5-$60 spread. 1-12 is quite the standard now days for shoe games, where as 1-8 is more a general guideline for double deck games (which this in my opinion is starting to be too noticeable now days).

With the game you listed above (-.48% HE) and the spread you listed (5-25), IF you get 100 hands per hour (which at a low limit game like this typically filled with bad ploppies you're looking more like 60 hands per hour) then your EV is about $2.67/hour. This is also assuming you play down to, and including, TC -1. With such a small spread I also worked your spread to have your max bet out at TC +3. TC<2 = $5, TC < 3 = $15, TC >= 3 = $25. Remember, this is also for 100 hands per hour! You're probably getting more like 60 hands per hour at this table, which would make your EV 60% of $2.67, which is $1.60. At this rate if you make just one or two mistakes per hour, you're playing a LOSING game =/. This is why it's so crucial to run the numbers for specific games/spreads. In my A to Z thread I post (I think on page 5) my spreadsheets which you could update with your numbers. That's what I just literally did to get these numbers.

Now let's look at the 1-12 ($5-$60) spread. For the same game, playing down to TC -1, assuming 100 hands per hour again, you're EV is now $6.84. Again if you're only getting 60 hands per hour then your EV drops to about $4.10/hour. However, this is a good buffer for a couple mistakes per hour, so long as they're not huge EV costing mistakes. Don't forget though, if your big bet is $60, then you'd need more like a $6,000 bankroll. To be more precise you should SIM the game, but if you're part time looking for some play with comps then your $3k should be pretty good and if you treat it as a replenishable bankroll where you're willing to add more to it if you need, then you should be fine.

Feel free to post here, my other thread, or PM me with more questions.

Excellent help! thanks. One question i do have right now is what qualifies a huge mistake??? Just bad BS plays or wrong bet size?? I have BS memorized cold but still am just working on my counting skills mostly at this point, i dont have all the index plays memorized but i do have a few.... What are the most important index plays to learn that give you the most EV that should be memorized first?

Also you suggested keeping 1 unit bet at TC2 and below? Is this because the HE is just barely positive at TC1? Is it wiser to have more sudden jumps in the spread as opposed to smoother ramp?

Also i got curious and tried to run the numbers. The local DD game is 10$min, I plugged in a 10-25$ (2-5 units) spread on this game and came up with way better results EV wise. I just tried using the trial CV data so i don't know if the results are actually correct since i don't have full version yet... but does that sound correct? My results were in the 3.50/hr range playing 60hands/hr with 10-25 spread.... with max bet out by TC3. Might the DD game be a better option as these tables generally see less people and the count moves around alot more....

A huge mistake would be defined by EV. If you have 15 v 10 and the TC is +4, you're supposed to stand, but let's say you forget and hit. Well, TC +4 is the index tipping point so while it's better to stand, hitting is minutely worse and would probably only cost you a few pennies... Where as for an extreme example let's say you have 4-4 v dealer 6 in a TC +3, where you're supposed to split them anyways (at a generic game) and you opt to hit or double. This would cost you a lot more in the long run. How much, I'm not 100% sure off the top of my head but at least a couple bucks I'd think. Especially because the higher the count the more you're betting and thus the more you're costing yourself by making a mistake and giving up %.

I personally consider a "major" mistake to be anything that costs more than pennies on "close" plays. If you're making major mistakes, to me you should be at home practicing instead of playing =P.

Just learn the I18 for index plays. That's the vast majority of the value of index plays, though yes you can get some value from adding more, you really don't need more to be a successful player. The most import index play is to buy insurance at TC +3, which is about half of the value of memorizing the I18 (illustrious 18). You can find the I18 anywhere online, even the Wizards main odds site... or the link to it in my articles/thread/etc =).

In the game you posted the HE was .48%. Thus, "generically" the house edge can be modified by .5% for each TC. This is of course dependent on the actual cards removed... If you see ten 2's leave the deck, then the RC is +10... if you see ten 5's leave the deck, then the RC is +10... However due to effect of card removal (char on Wiz's odds site) we know the 2nd scenario where all the 5's are out is MUCH MORE valuable. On "average" we take each TC to move the HE .5%... so at TC +1 you're at .02%, which is so small that given the different effect of removals I wouldn't bet it as you're essentially "gambling" and you don't yet have a 100% for sure edge. Now around TC +1.5 or TC +2 you can be sure you have an edge and thus bet bigger. Remember, we don't "gamble" =).

Oh the draw to DD... Most counters start with shoes and then they see DD, get a taste for it, and love it. Because when you have a big count in DD as opposed to 8D, you usually see the results right away (as in all the face cards come flying out). And yes, the counts do swing more both ways, which will result in you having to play more negative counts or sit out a lot more often... like a lot more often. When I play DD usually I play down through TC -2, or possibly more if it's just about near the shuffle. A lot of DD games are "No Mid Shoe Entry" which means if you sit out you have to wait for the next shoe. Plus DD games are generally more closely guarded (on average - this will again depend on the shop usually), so sitting out all the time at them will draw heat. Btw a 10-25 bet spread would be a 1-2.5 bet spread. Whatever your min bet is is your base for the 1 to whatever. A 1-2.5 bet spread probably wouldn't even be profitable or break even as that's just really low. Maybe a 10-30 spread.

My advice based off your questions and where I feel you are (just after our brief interactions) is that you should practice your counting a bit more, learn the deviations (as you'll use them more in DD since the count fluctuates) and read then re-read these articles. Most all your questions should be answered in here =). Don't "think" you have a winning game, know you have a winning game!

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-In-Blackjack-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/A-to-Z-Counting-Cards-in-Blackjack-3/

Quote: brettecantwell

i dont have all the index plays memorized but i do have a few.... What are the most important index plays to learn that give you the most EV that should be memorized first?

Also you suggested keeping 1 unit bet at TC2 and below? Is this because the HE is just barely positive at TC1? Is it wiser to have more sudden jumps in the spread as opposed to smoother ramp?

Top 3 index plays: Insurance (TC+3, 6 deck game), stand 16 vs 10 (any positive count) and stand 15 vs 10 (TC +4) account for something like 60% of all gain available from index plays.

After that if you learn Don Schlesinger's "The Illustrious 18", you can capture 80% of all gain possible.

After the top 18 or 20 and a few extra surrender index plays (if you play a game where surrender is available), you get into diminishing returns. You can learn hundreds of index plays if you want but really most of the soft doubles and splits that aren't part of basic strategy, just aren't worth very much. And many of the other index plays above the top 20 or so just happen so infrequently (high counts) that it really amounts to pennies for most players.

I play about 30, but really those last 10, make little difference.

There is a small group of negative index plays, which are sort of defensive plays (you will lose less rather than win more), so the best option is to not be playing during these negative counts when these plays become worthwhile. But if you are in a situation, where you play a local casino and don't have many tables available to be jumping out of negative counts and are forced to play most of the negative counts, then it is worthwhile to learn some of these negative index plays, but really the best choice is to not be playing those negative rounds in the first place.

So on 16v10 and 15v10. If the game has LS take that first and use the index plays if I have a multi card total of 15,16 etc?

Correct. LS takes precedence over standing on those hands.