Raped by the cards tonight.

Fellow counters, APs, and informed parties...help me try to understand how bad this session was today.

Played in DD games today at a casino in Nevada. $25-125 spread using TKO (My counting is very accurate at this point).

Rules of the game were as follows: 3:2, DOA, H17, No DaS, No RSA, No surrender.

Pen was approximately 1.25 decks. Played mostly with myself, although sometimes with 1-2 players.

Was up nearly $500 at one point, and then started to bleed...badly. Recovered here and there by a few hundred dollars at time, but mostly took massive gashes to the funds.

Left down $2800 after 8-9 hours of play.

Horrible trends lived through today:

1. I swear to Christ that I got the 10/2, 8/4, 7/5, 6/6, & 3/9 against the dealer's 10 nearly 50 times tonight. It was almost always followed by the 10. I couldn't stop busting. Ditto for all the s#$% stiff hands of 13/14/15. Auto-bust. No prayer in hell of making a hand with them (even more than normal, given that they are s#$% hands, that's a given).

2. Alternatively, the dealers were making strong pat hands on their 4/5/6 consistently. They basically weren't bust cards for them tonight. 18-21 consistently.

3. Outblackjacked tonight probably 3:1. Yeah, that's going to happen.

4. Lost most big bets and the overwhelmingly majority of my doubles. In the multi-unit scenarios, goodbye chips.

5. Best moment of the night. I am sitting on a K-K and the count is through the roof. Max bet is out. Dealer is showing a 5. She pulls a 2-3-4-7. My jaw drops.

$2800 lost in a $25 game is 112 units. I know that anything is possible in this game that we (somehow) love, but can anyone provide any insight on just how bad these results were tonight? I mean, s#$% is going to go south sometimes...but this bad? I'm sure it's very possible that I could have gotten it worse...$4k? $5k? More?

I am taking solace in the fact that prior to this trainwreck of a day, I have been on a solid winning streak the past two months and have reeled in a little over $7k before today since Halloween.

Thanks guys.

p.s. Sidenote: this is 2.5 times the most I have ever lost in a single day up until today. Certainly, this is payback from the Gods of negative variance, based on the past two months, when I was sometimes winning $700 in an hour. :)

$2800 loss in 8-9 hours spreading $25-125 on DD? That's what, about 2.6 max bets per hour? Doesn't seem all that bad to me.

No DAS really hurts you, at least in my opinion.

Quote: Amlee

Played in DD games today at a casino in Nevada. $25-125 spread using TKO (My counting is very accurate at this point).

Rules of the game were as follows: 3:2, DOA, H17, No DaS, No RSA, No surrender

Was up nearly $500 at one point, and then started to bleed...badly. Recovered here and there by a few hundred dollars at time, but mostly took massive gashes to the funds.

Left down $2800 after 8-9 hours of play.

The rules and the counting system (not sure how many index plays are you using?) are not the best for double deck games, though they are not the main reason (main reason is negative variance) for your loss, but improving upon them can improve your long term profit.

Quote: Amlee

1. I swear to Christ that I got the 10/2, 8/4, 7/5, 6/6, & 3/9 against the dealer's 10 nearly 50 times tonight. It was almost always followed by the 10. I couldn't stop busting. Ditto for all the shit stiff hands of 13/14/15. Auto-bust. No prayer in hell of making a hand with them (even more than normal, given that they are shit hands, that's a given).

That's your selective memory working, don't trust them, trust the math.

Quote: Amlee

2. Alternatively, the dealers were making strong pat hands on their 4/5/6 consistently. They basically weren't bust cards for them tonight. 18-21 consistently.

Again it's your selective memory, you probably don't remember the times dealer busted on 4/5/6 when you had your minimum bet out.

Quote: Amlee

3. Outblackjacked tonight probably 3:1. Yeah, that's going to happen.

Given the number of hours you played, there were (on average) 40-50 BJs between you and the dealer, which is way too small of a sample size for a 50/50 scenario. Just be patient and wait until the "long run" where you and the dealer will get equal number of BJs.

Quote: Amlee

4. Lost most big bets and the overwhelmingly majority of my doubles. In the multi-unit scenarios, goodbye chips.

The chance of winning your doubles, on average, is just a little above 50%. Again, not nearly big enough sample size to realize the probability.

Quote: Amlee

5. Best moment of the night. I am sitting on a K-K and the count is through the roof. Max bet is out. Dealer is showing a 5. She pulls a 2-3-4-7. My jaw drops.

I was playing crazy 4 poker the other night and my straight flush was beaten by a bigger straight flush from the dealer. Miracles happen, just have to wait until they happen on your side of the table.

Quote: Amlee

$2800 lost in a $25 game is 112 units. I know that anything is possible in this game that we (somehow) love, but can anyone provide any insight on just how bad these results were tonight? I mean, shit is going to go south sometimes...but this bad? I'm sure it's very possible that I could have gotten it worse...$4k? $5k? More?

I am taking solace in the fact that prior to this trainwreck of a day, I have been on a solid winning streak the past two months and have reeled in a little over $7k before today since Halloween.

Thanks guys.

p.s. Sidenote: this is 2.5 times the most I have ever lost in a single day up until today. Certainly, this is payback from the Gods of negative variance, based on the past two months, when I was sometimes winning $700 in an hour. :)

You shouldn't measure your loss in term of minimum bet units, because the majority of the variance occur on your max bet.

So you've lost 22 max bets during your 9 hour long session. I can give your my perspective from my personal experience. I mainly play DD game with sub 0.4% HA, 2/3+ pen, and I play a level 2 system with full indices. Simulation shows that the chance of me losing 20 max bets per 1000 hands (about 8-10 hours) is 8% while winning 20 max bets is 15%, and my log from past couple of years closely reflect this. For you I would guess the chance of losing 20 max bets in 1000 hands is around 10%, so if you max bet at 125, you should expect a $2500 loss 1 out every 10 1000 hands sessions. Depending on how much you played, I'd say you were very lucky to not have experience this until now. What you had experienced is not that unusual, and you shouldn't panic if your bankroll is sufficient and you adjust your bets according to your BR fluctuation.

If this type of variance is too scary for you, adjust your playing strategy to play more conservatively. What I mean is always choose the less costly (choose hit or stand instead of double or split) option for boarder line plays. Start Insuring your 20 and BJs when the count gets near the insurance index. Some of the soft doubles literally cost hundreds to gain a few pennies worth of EV, so avoid making those doubles to reduce variance. You have to really understand the game to make these adjustments without eliminating your advantage.

All in all, trust the math and keep playing, good luck!

What ^ said about taking the lower volatile side when something is borderline.

But don't just do this blindly! Look them up. Some plays increase EV very rapidly (per TC) while others increase very slowly. Some plays cost very little, like always taking even money on a BJ, always standing on 16vT, etc. Are also great cover plays. BJA3 is a good read for this kind of info (and anything else, for that matter).

Just say no to H17, nDAS DD unless the pen in insane