Dumb decision but worked out
Anyway, last night was playing two hands with $30 on each. Count was TC3. Dealer had 6 up and I had hard 17 on first hand and 12 on second. Of course, I waved off a card on both hands. For some reason, dealer gives me a card on second hand and it's an Ace. Other players confirmed I waved off the hit and floor offered to let me keep the card and play on, burn the card and play on or pull my bets back.
My initial thought was since neither of my hands were strong that I should pull them back. I know 6 is a great bust card and the count is high so good chance that might happen. Wasn't sure of the math but figured playing was a bad choice. I guess on a hunch I said I'd play it out and luckily the dealer did bust so I won.
Was this close to a good bet with the count high? I used the hand analyzer afterwards and that definitely showed it was bad to play on when not counting.
FYI, bust rate on a dealer 6 is about 42%. It doesn't reach 50% until TC +10.
Quote: 21formeAppendix E in Wong's Prof BJ are tables of EV for various hands. From p 329, 6D, H17, the EV of standing on a 17 v 6 is -.01, so almost break even. EV of standing on 12 v 6 is -.122. So the correct decision would have been to pull the bets back.
FYI, bust rate on a dealer 6 is about 42%. It doesn't reach 50% until TC +10.
Great, thanks for that info! I figured I messed up but at least I got lucky this time. Something new to study!
21forme has the correct research =). I love those tables in the back of Wong's Prof BJ.Quote: cf1984Great, thanks for that info! I figured I messed up but at least I got lucky this time. Something new to study!
p.s. He was standing 13 vs 6 with the Ace, haw =D... still negative.
Bust rates are something I'd consider advanced. It's for those who love the knowledge of the game (if you're just playing part time for fun and possibly some spare money) and occasionally you'll find yourself in a situation like this. How about another question? What would you have done in a similar situation (assuming heads up or no one acting behind you) if the dealers card was a bigger card, like a 10 valued card, and the dealer simply tucked the card back under the shoe, as if it wasn't dealt (and yes I've seen this done several times over the years)?
Answer: Yes, you'd pull the bets back because the disadvantage would have been more obvious, but I hope you can tell me the other, much more important factor to that question =p.
I'm glad you found the articles and/or thread useful cf, and that you're having great variance out of the gate! Be sure to run your EV/SD's so you know just where you're at. I'm going to release a "Years End" account for some of my AP play (if I ever get around to finishing the report for myself first) and spoiler: After 250 hours of play my teammate and I were in the red =/.
Quote: Romes21forme has the correct research =). I love those tables in the back of Wong's Prof BJ.
p.s. He was standing 13 vs 6 with the Ace, haw =D... still negative.
Bust rates are something I'd consider advanced. It's for those who love the knowledge of the game (if you're just playing part time for fun and possibly some spare money) and occasionally you'll find yourself in a situation like this. How about another question? What would you have done in a similar situation (assuming heads up or no one acting behind you) if the dealers card was a bigger card, like a 10 valued card, and the dealer simply tucked the card back under the shoe, as if it wasn't dealt (and yes I've seen this done several times over the years)?
Answer: Yes, you'd pull the bets back because the disadvantage would have been more obvious, but I hope you can tell me the other, much more important factor to that question =p.
I'm glad you found the articles and/or thread useful cf, and that you're having great variance out of the gate! Be sure to run your EV/SD's so you know just where you're at. I'm going to release a "Years End" account for some of my AP play (if I ever get around to finishing the report for myself first) and spoiler: After 250 hours of play my teammate and I were in the red =/.
Are you saying they may have put the Ace back in the shoe to be dealt again?
Depends on the dealer. A lot of times they start to pull a card out that they don't need, realize it, and in mid dealing it (when everyone sees the card) they tuck it back under the front of the shoe as the "first card" of the next round. IF the dealer has a pat hand that stands, then you know the first card to be dealt is an Ace (or 10 I think from my example above). Both carry a MASSIVE edge if you know that's your first card, thus you'd want to ask 1st base to bet or if you are first base bet yourself as big of a bet as you think you can get away with (table max if you can). These hands are rare, but they DO happen. If you have an ace coming and table max, well that 1k (or whatever) bet carries a 51% EV! In blackjack you fight for a 1-2% edge (on average) and here you're getting a table max bet at 51% =). Quite rare, but quite powerful!Quote: cf1984Are you saying they may have put the Ace back in the shoe to be dealt again?
Quote: WinoI saw the Ace first card misdeal thing happen about a month ago to another player at my table; 6 deck game. Player asks Pit how much can he bet and Pit says whatever you want. The guy bets table max $1K. Player gets dealt pair aces against dealer 10. He was betting like $75 a hand for the past hour and now this happens. He comes up with the other $1K not without a little stress looking through his pockets and having barely enough. Player splits and gets dealt a King then an 8 for 21 and 19. Dealer draws another 10 to make 20. The round is a push for the guy. Really amusing. Good play by that player.
Grosjean wrote up a report for how to play when using Ace first-card info, based on the fact you'd be wagering a whole hell of a lot more than usual. I don't remember exactly what he came up with, but I'm pretty sure splitting AA vs T is likely not the most optimal decision (in terms of bankroll growth, not EV).
Quote: RSGrosjean wrote up a report for how to play when using Ace first-card info, based on the fact you'd be wagering a whole hell of a lot more than usual. I don't remember exactly what he came up with, but I'm pretty sure splitting AA vs T is likely not the most optimal decision (in terms of bankroll growth, not EV).
That's an important difference between first-card knowledge with an Ace vs. a 10. With an Ace the possibility of doubling or splitting exists (i.e. the latter with a pair of Aces and the former with some soft hands against weak dealer upcards) while you would not usually double or split any hand with a 10 in it (unless the count is high enough to split 10's).
