New to counting with a couple questions

I've been doing my research and practicing counting for a couple months now and I wanted to put a couple things out there. First, I am losing, I'm down 75 units after 60 hours of play. I play at my local casino with a HE of 0.57, I spread 1-5 (sometimes 1-10), using HI-LO and the first 5 indices; I realize my spread isn't enough but I am afraid of heat (probably for no reason) and I want to play a couple nights a week without driving an hour. I am not going pro ever, I like the game, I like the environment, I like the technical skill and I like beating the expectations of the house - I like winning. That said, a couple things, I could swear that I tend to win when the count is low and lose when the count is high. I realize I'm working with a very small sample size but I wondered if this impression is common because of the frequency of instance of low counts compared to high counts or something like that? Really though, I will win single units all night, but when my spread goes up I just watch my money disappear. Also, with all my ups and downs over the last couple months I have never once broke even, I went down on my first hand hand have not made my bankroll back since then, I trust the math, at least I think I do, but after all this losing it's hard to imagine a run that takes me back up. I'm not sure that I have a clear question here but just looking for some experience as I have nobody to talk to about these things.

PS. I really appreciate this forum, I'm learning a lot, and having a lot of fun with my new hobby.

That's a tough game, Joshu. Am I right in assuming 8 deck H17?

Yes, it's a tiny sample size and your results are nothing out of the ordinary. With only two months of counting you've got to be making mistakes in basic strategy, deck estimation or any number of other things. You can't "play all" with your modest spread in a game like that. What is the penetration?

Start at the beginning. Be sure you know basic strategy cold and take it from there. Do you know the strategy for H17 versus S17? Keep practicing and you'll get there. Hopefully you'll be able to find better games.

Welcome Joshu.

House edge .57....what are we talking? 8 decks, Double on any, Double after split, late surrender?

You really need better than 1-5 spread to 'beat' this game. 1-10 works better, 1-8 even works, but what would really help with a relatively small spread is escaping at least SOME of the really bad negative counts. You don't have to get out of all of them to make a difference, just time a couple bathroom breaks, and phone calls with some of the negative shoe counts and when you exit for the night, leave a negative count. These simple techniques are the beginnings of what I like to think of as changing the true count frequencies slightly in your favor.

Second thing to consider is not only spread, but how quickly you are ramping up that spread. I often see newer players talk about a 1-10 or 1-12 spread, but they are ramping up too slowly. If they don't get to the top wagers until true counts of +7 or 8 (or higher), it isn't doing them much good as those counts are just too infrequent. In shoe games, you really need to get to your top wager by TC of +4. You can do +5 if you really want to be conservative, but waiting any longer, and those big wagers aren't doing you much good.

You already know that 60 hours is a small sample size. If you are getting 100 rounds per hour (which you likely aren't with other players) that would be 6000 rounds. That is a small sample size. I have had several losing period that lasted in the neighborhood of 40,000 rounds. Blackjack is really a game of "long-term". In the short-term, anything can and will happen....big losses, big wins.

And finally that phenomenon of winning all the small bets and losing all the bigger bets happens all the time. And worse yet, 'selective memory' plays a part and makes it seem like it occurs even more than it does. That's the nature of the game. But there will also be times that work just as it's supposed to. You win all the big bets, all the double downs, even when you double a 10 or 11 and pull a 2 or 3, the dealer will break and you will win. You will just go days, weeks in a row of winning session after session.

And when you add it all up the crazy winning streaks, the periods that you are in now, where nothing seems to go right, it usually works out to pretty close to expectation in the end. (long run). Believe in the math and keep plugging away my friend. That's blackjack.

My younger brother is now 10 months into his first year of low limit full-time card counting. I've seen him go through the whole rollercoaster of results and emotions. He started of fast, first couple months above expectation, then hit a real stagnant period of 3 or 4 months. Then he hit another good run, far above expectation. And now he has hit about a 2 and a half month period where he has gone 'backwards big time, and at the end of it all, he is really close to expectation. He is unhappy about this latest run, but the whole 10 month period has really been a microcosm of how blackjack card counting works.

If I get a chance I will post in a little more detail or blog about his first year (so far) as I think it may be helpful to some members getting started or thinking of getting started.

Thanks for the comments, that's exactly what I was thinking but it's nice to hear from an outside source. I know the game is tough 6 deck, H17, DAS, no surrender. But it's what I got with only one casino within an hour of me. My basic strategy is down cold and I'm working on the I18 but yes I'm am making mistakes. As for your comments I wong out frequently with a low count, bathroom breaks and whatever, I also ramp up fairly quickly full bet at +4. Anyway, that stuff is good to hear, I'm adding to my bankroll monthly and just honing my craft until I can work up to the stakes I want to play at so the perspective from experience is really helpful to me right now.

Quote: Joshu

Thanks for the comments, that's exactly what I was thinking but it's nice to hear from an outside source. I know the game is tough 6 deck, H17, DAS, no surrender. But it's what I got with only one casino within an hour of me. My basic strategy is down cold and I'm working on the I18 but yes I'm am making mistakes. As for your comments I wong out frequently with a low count, bathroom breaks and whatever, I also ramp up fairly quickly full bet at +4. Anyway, that stuff is good to hear, I'm adding to my bankroll monthly and just honing my craft until I can work up to the stakes I want to play at so the perspective from experience is really helpful to me right now.

6 deck, H17, DAS, no surrender is not horrible. Late surrender would be nice, but with no surrender it is a very average game, rules-wise. However, what we haven't discussed is penetration (the shuffle point). Penetration is probably the most important thing. Deep penetration can make a game with lousy rules playable. But good rules, rarely can make a game with lousy penetration playable.

For the game you mentioned, 75% penetration (a deck and a half cut off is about average). Less than a deck and a half, cut off and the game goes from average to good. More than a deck and a half cut off and it gets worse.

Quote: kewlj

6 deck, H17, DAS, no surrender is not horrible. Late surrender would be nice, but with no surrender it is a very average game, rules-wise. However, what we haven't discussed is penetration (the shuffle point). Penetration is probably the most important thing. Deep penetration can make a game with lousy rules playable. But good rules, rarely can make a game with lousy penetration playable.

For the game you mentioned, 75% penetration (a deck and a half cut off is about average). Less than a deck and a half, cut off and the game goes from average to good. More than a deck and a half cut off and it gets worse.

I'll second this, as I play a lot of 6D/4D H17, DAS, DOA, RSA games, if you can find solid penetration, the game can be quite good, especially so if you also find a "fast" dealer :D

Depends on the dealer but it looks like they shoot for one deck penetration and it usually lands right in there, sometimes a deck and a quarter but never high than that.

It sounds like you're aware of weaknesses in your game and thinking, which is more than many can say (the spread and sample size in determining results). I'd like to second what was said about penetration. It is huge to be able to have those additional cards dealt out. You've probably heard this already too, but it's important that you have an adequately sized bankroll if you plan on doing this awhile.

Bumping up your spread will help make the game more advantageous to you. Positive variance to ya!

Hey Joshu, and even though it's been just a couple weeks, welcome to the forums!

You've already got a ton of great feedback from some of our sites very knowledgeable members. I agree with everything posted by them thus far and just want to add some formalized numbers to help you visualize some things.

First, with the rules you've given, the only way you can get .57% is to be able to re-split aces. If you can't, then the HE is actually .64%, which would be mistake #1. I'm assuming you correctly identified the HE though, so let's stick with .57%.

One thing not touched on thus far, and I have to mention because I've seen several other counters do it, is when you're initially raising your bet. Sometimes new counters hear or think "when the TC goes up, raise your bet!" At this game where the HE is OVER .5% that is not true though. Each true count is generically taken to be "about" .5% for the player. Thus if the HE is .57% and you have TC +1, this means the HE is more about .07% still for the house! Upping your bet here will actually take more money out of your hourly! I hope you're not upping your bet until TC +2, when you actually have an advantage.

Next, given the HE (.57%) and your assumed spread (TC < -1 = sit out, TC < +2 = 1 unit, TC +2 = 2 units, TC +3 = 4 units, TC +4 = 5 units) I'll run some numbers for you. First, I want to comment on why you should be upping your bet as hard as you can at TC +3. TC +4, while a bigger 'advantage' to the player, occurs much less frequently than TC +3, which actually makes TC +3 MORE valuable to the player than TC +4! So this is where your biggest hike in spread should occur. It helps to know your frequencies =). Now let's look at your numbers:

I'm showing for the HE and Spread above ($10-$50) that IF YOU'RE AVERAGING 100 HANDS PER HOUR you're making $3.47 per hour. Remember this is also for wonging out at any TC < -1! Now factor in any mistakes, tipping, or any cover you employ (since you're worried about heat - though you shouldn't be with your spread) and I hope you can see you clearly have a NEGATIVE game you're playing =(. This is the #1 most horrible thing that can happen to any counter... You think you have a winning game but you don't!

For your reference, everything the same above but with a 1-10 spread (10, 30, 60, 90, 100... for TC 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 respectively) you're making $9.59 per hour. While positive and a winning game (assuming you do in fact have BS down cold) after factoring in mistakes, tipping, cover, etc, you're probably closer to break even =/.

I suppose I should ask, what limits are you playing at? If you're playing quarters or higher I want to point out these numbers will actually go up to $8.68 and $21.52 per hour respectively. Thus, the only truly positive game you could be playing is $25 min with a 1-10 spread, or higher limits.

Summary
It sounds like you've put some good work in to your game so far but done what most of us (myself included) did... You jumped the gun a bit and started playing because you thought "well I can count so let's make money!" Don't worry, we're all guilty of it, but I hope the posts above and mine show you that you need to do a bit more homework before jumping on a game. I'd suggest checking out a few things. One, I wrote 3 articles hosted on the Articles section of this site that covers "A to Z" in blackjack. After reading, and rereading those, you'll absolutely know you have a winning game! Next, the articles spawned from a thread in the blackjack subforum here "A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack." I don't suggest reading the thread as the articles are the same thing in greater depth, BUT near the end of the thread I post my spreadsheets (1D, 2D, and 6D) that I use to calculate hourly averages on games. You should definitely be able to use one of these and you should be able to tell me your hourly rate for ANY blackjack game in the world in just a couple minutes! I hope you find this information useful, and again, welcome to the forums!

Articles
Article 1
Article 2
Article 3

Google Docs Share for Excel Sheets
1 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TiTBCuj4GHK0E_mRry3IGbWyqkfarimxskLL0Fxeygw/edit?usp=sharing
2 Deck (25): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OI8WlO3yiigX8MAs9URDYLTkPNSQfbF9cXrlB7nWiZ0/edit?usp=sharing
6 Deck (10): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-jCr5jRUiAg_s59IFTz6B2wqKyDJmyQkiSlddT7RdNc/edit?usp=sharing

I know, wrong thread.
But Romes for POTUS?
Maybe Wizard too, one Rep one Dem, they can toss a coin.
We can't lose ;-)

That was incredibly helpful Romes, the HE is correct, re-split aces up to 4 times, double on aces (1 card only), double on any two cards, I used the Wizard of Odds calculator. But your analysis is great for me, I have tried to crunch those numbers myself and I have come to basically the same conclusion, but I'm not confident with all the numbers yet. I decided it was worth it to me because I feel like the experience at the tables is invaluable. I hit my first table after I could count a deck down in 30 seconds and found out that counting a deck down has nothing to do with counting cards in a casino. For me actually playing has been the best way to learn and while I may be playing a losing game it's been a good start with a minimal financial risk. I have no illusions about what card counting is, for me it's about the process and the personal challenge and I really enjoy it.

So I've been playing on a 5-250 table, mostly ramping up between 5 and 35 but from now on I'll play 1-10 spread. I am aware that I have probably been playing a losing game. After the posts yesterday I went and played 1-10 spread all night, no issues and I feel like with one pit boss in particular I could go much higher than that with no issues. So that was a good confidence booster. Bad news is that the same trend occurred, I lost almost all the big bets I placed even when the count went to +4 or +5 at one point. But as I said talking with you guys has really helped me understand where I'm at so I'll keep practicing.

Thank you so much for the spreadsheets, I read the A-Z articles at least twice but I couldn't find where the spreadsheets were posted, not sure why maybe I'm just blind but I will make good use of them.

Quote: Joshu

...Thank you so much for the spreadsheets, I read the A-Z articles at least twice but I couldn't find where the spreadsheets were posted, not sure why maybe I'm just blind but I will make good use of them.

I showed a screenshot and explained all of the cells in the first article, but yeah I didn't post the spreadsheets to Google Docs until after I posted the articles and someone asked about them in the A-Z thread. I'm glad you found the information useful and you know just where you stand.

I agree your experience at a "break even" game is quite important. If/When you decide to turn a profit you'll be 10 steps ahead of most of the others that jump in to counting =).

I started counting about 2 years ago. Have played a total of 500-600 hours and been banned from over a dozen casinos in that time. I use a spread of 1 hand from $15 or $25 to two hands of $300 each. This is quite a large spread(probably reason for the quick back offs). Currently I have nothing to show for it but a -8,000 loss. During this time I have been in the profit over $10,000 on 3 separate occasions only to proceed to lose it all and go back in the red. Being in the red after 60 hours is common. If you have a solid game it will take time to make it back(or so I hear). From my understanding you need a minimum of about 1,000 hours to give you a better sample size. If you are playing shoe games you should really be using a minimum of 1-10 tho. I would also make an effort to really learn those index plays. You'll find that you use them very often. You should be 100% solid in your game so that you have no doubts about your play. It makes losing a little bit easier knowing you at least made all the right decisions.
I am like you in the sense that I beleive in the math, yet I continue to doubt it every day due to my results. However, this forum has been incredibly helpful during the emotional downswings. Listening to the experience of others and their losing streaks helps remind you that negative flux can be absolutely brutal. There are many experienced players on here who have way more years of experience than us and great stories of wins and losses. They are very entertaining and very helpful. You've come to the right place if you want to learn. Let's just hope for both our sakes that the math actually works:)

Quote: Flippyfish

... Let's just hope for both our sakes that the math actually works:)

That's the funny/great thing about math. No hope required =).

Quote: gav

...Is there any literature/post for negative EV affects like tipping, mistakes, cover or not wonging out when your supposed to?

If you're able to calculate your hourly... simply apply things like tipping/cover. These are so situationally dependent that I wouldn't expect you to find much literature on them other than what I'm referencing.

If you know your hourly EV, then you know what these things do to it... Examples:

1) If you tip $1 on about 5 hands per hour, then tipping is costing you $5/hour off your EV. If you BJ EV is $30/hour, well now you're EV should be $25/hour.
2) Cover with a cost. If you make a cover play, say instead of $10 off the top you bet $50 off the top because you were betting big at the end of the last shoe in a big true count then this is also calculable. The game has a .5% HE. Normally on your $10 bet that means your EL is (total bet * HE) = -$0.05. Now when you bet $50 off the top your EL = (50)*(-.005) = -$0.25. Not surprising you bet 5x your normal hand, so you're EL is 5x the amount. So say you make this cover play 4 times in an hour (maybe you're playing DD where the fluctuations in count are greater)... That means betting $50 off the top instead of $10 is costing you 80 cents per hour (normally you would lose .20 on those 4 hands, but with the added EL you're losing 1.00, so a difference of .80).
3) Mistakes are harder... as you may or may not know you're making them. If you don't know you're making them then you can't really account for them, or you can try to shave a couple dollars per hour off expecting a mistake every now and then or something =/. If you DO know you made a mistake then you can calculate that amount all the same. Look up the EV of the hand in the Wiz's appendix, etc, etc.

The best way to calculate mistakes is to not make them =p. This is why we train until we're machines and then it's best to have someone else check/test you, on numerous occasions. Even then, to "play it safe" I personally like to think I make 1 mistake every X hands, so I apply that ratio to my hourly all the same. So if I'm truly not making mistakes, my EV should be higher then =).

Quote: Joshu

I've been doing my research and practicing counting for a couple months now and I wanted to put a couple things out there. First, I am losing, I'm down 75 units after 60 hours of play. I play at my local casino with a HE of 0.57, I spread 1-5 (sometimes 1-10), using HI-LO and the first 5 indices; I realize my spread isn't enough but I am afraid of heat (probably for no reason) and I want to play a couple nights a week without driving. I am not going pro ever, I like the game, I like the technical skill and I like beating the expectations of the house - I like winning. That said, a couple things, I could swear that I tend to win when the count is low and lose when the count is high. I realize I'm working with a very small sample size but I wondered if this impression is common because of the frequency of low counts compared to high counts or something like that? I just watch my money disappear. Also, with all my ups and downs over the last couple months I have never once broke even, I went down on my first hand hand have not made my bankroll back since then, I trust the math, but after all this losing it's hard to imagine a run that takes me back up. I'm not sure that I have a clear question here but just looking for some experience as I have nobody to talk to about these things.

PS. I really appreciate this forum, I'm learning a lot, and having a lot of fun with my new hobby.

Thank you for your post. One recommendation for a beginning counter is that your maximum wager should be what you are comfortable recreationally flat betting. For example, if you are comfortable flat betting (and losing) $150 on a hand (or $300 after a double down), then you can spread 1-10 at a $15 table. If you aren't comfortable at that level then you shouldn't bet that much, even if the count is great. Learn to "Wong" in and out if you can't stand the bankroll swings.
I hope this helps. Replies appreciated.