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Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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July 23rd, 2010 at 10:44:07 AM permalink
If someone were to play Blackjack at a table that had a promotion going that made Blackjacks pay 2-1 and suited blackjacks pay 3-1, how would that change the house advantage? I'm thinking it turns the advantage to the player during this time. The details are below.

6 deck shoe
dealer hits soft 17
double down on any first 2 cards
split up to 3 times (4 total hands)
no hitting split aces
no surrender
player may play 2 hands if they are next to each other

maximum payout at the bonus odds is $300. So a $200+ suited blackjack would pay 3-1 on the first $100 and 3-2 on the remaining amount.

It seems to me it would be wise to play 2 hands at $100 each during this promotion to maximize changes to win if indeed the advantage is to the player during this time.

Any thoughts?
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:10:54 AM permalink
Uh, is this real? If so, you'd better come out with it. I'm not going to say anything more unless you name the casino. That's the established procedure on this board; no secrets.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:13:09 AM permalink
It's as real as it gets. Bucky's Casino in Prescott, AZ. 8am-9am, 3pm-4pm and 9pm-10pm Mon-Thurs for players with a players card.
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
Joined: Mar 28, 2010
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:13:52 AM permalink
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/rule-variations.html

Blackjacks pay 2 to 1 +2.27%

this is an estimate.

im using one deck for sake of simplicity.

there are 64 different ways to make blackjack. 4acesx16tenvaluedcards

each blackjack paying 2 to 1 is worth 2.27%/64 or .035469%

there are 16 different ways to make suited blackjacks. 4x1acex4tenvaluedcardsofsamesuit.

16 of those blackjacks are worth 1.5 times as much so .035469% x 16 x 1.5 or .85176% collectively.

48 of those blackjacks are worth .035469% or 1.70352% collectively.

adding those two amounts together equals 2.55528%.

depending on whether you can resplit aces or double down after a split, the house edge is anywhere from .54% to .76%.

so all together the player advantage is about 1.80% to 2.00%.
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:13:53 AM permalink
doublepost.
weaselman
weaselman
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:18:06 AM permalink
I am getting +2.68% if you can double after split, and +2.54 if you cannot (with infinite decks)
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:23:35 AM permalink
Quote: weaselman

I am getting +2.68% if you can double after split, and +2.54 if you cannot (with infinite decks)



out of curiosity can you explain how u came up with those numbers?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:25:36 AM permalink
I think the HA on your basic rules is about .65%. The odds of getting a non-suited blackjack are about 3.75%, and the odds of getting a suited blackjack are about 1.25%. If blackjack pushes are ignored, then paying 2:1 on non-suited blackjack is worth about 1.875% to the player (3.75% of the time, you'll get a extra .5 units). Paying 3:1 on suited blackjack is worth about 1.875% more for the player (1.25% of the time, you'll get an extra 1.5 units).

I'm writing this on my cellphone from O'hare airport, and doing the math in my head (and rounding). I may be missing something, but it looks to me like these rules have a player advantage of about 3.1%.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
teddys
teddys
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:33:06 AM permalink
Thank you.

I also tend to think it is higher. The Wizard's page says 2-1 blackjack is an off-the-top 2.27% advantage. That's a given. Then in addition to that for every suited BJ you will get an extra payout of another bet. Rudeboyoi, I'm not saying your math is wrong, but just an additional .30% advantage for that seems low.

Regardless, it's a 2-3% advantage and the ideal bet is probably as many hands of $150 as they will let you lay out. That way you take advantage of the full $300 payout on regular BJs. Anything greater than that and you have diminishing returns. You'll stand to make ~$260 per hour for every bet you have out depending on the speed of play.

Edit: $150 is the maximum you would ever care to bet. I can't say it's the optimal bet. I'm not sure what that is. It might be a number somewhere in between $100 and $150. If you just play $100, you're also shorting yourself by not getting the full $300 on the regular BJ's which come up a lot more often than the suiteds.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
weaselman
weaselman
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July 23rd, 2010 at 11:44:38 AM permalink
Quote:

out of curiosity can you explain how u came up with those numbers?



Well, nothing fancy really. I wrote a little program, that computes an expectation of every hand with a given set of rules, and then sums up all the hands multipled by the probabilities.
For this particular calculation I set the blackjack payout to 9/4 (3*1/4 + 2*3/4), and everything else according to the rules mentioned in the original post - H17, no surrender, 3 splits etc.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"

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