Blackjack card counting losing streak?

Hey guys I am new to this site but I have read a lot of the threads on here and thought this would be the appropriate place to ask this question. I use hi-Lo system along with illustrious 18 and fab 4. However I do not use the indices of hitting a 13 against a dealer 2 or 3 and I do not hit 12 against a 4 at negative counts unless I'm heads up against dealer (I find it causes more issues with people at the table that I don't feel like dealing with) . Other than that I rarely lose the count and have decent deck estimation. Over the past few years I have accumulated somewhere between 350-400 hours. I usually play shoe games (6,8 decks) with an avg of 1.5 deck penetration. Never playing anything that exceeds over 2 decks. I usually play 1 hand at $15 or $25 min tables and spread to a max bet of 2 hands of $300 each. Bankroll is approx 40k. I live in the San Diego area and have been backed off of almost every casino in the area e.g Barona, sycuan, pala, viejas, pechanga etc. however my problem has not been getting backed off as much as it has been losing money. My first 30 hours of playing I was down about 9k. Within the next 100 hours I made it all back and was up in the profit about 12k at around the 180 hour mark.(not too bad of an hourly wage for a 23 year old. However in literally less than 25 hours I managed to lose all of it and was back in the negative. My bankroll remained stagnant for a decent amount of time when at around the 290 hour mark I hit some positive flux and was back in the profit about 10k. This again remained for another 25-30 hours but then last week in a span of 3 days (roughly 15-20 hours on my trip) I hit some serious negative flux of about 22k and find myself back in the red about 12k. I knew that this was a brutal game going into it but I would have thought that after around 350-400 hours of playing over the past few years I would at least be in the positive. I recently have been playing at a new casino that opened up called *** where I lost most of this money. Is it possible that they are rigging the decks or removing 10's or something? They have good rules (split 3 times, DAS, h17, 1.5 pen, and even offer surrender after you hit) but I seem to just be getting destroyed there. Also after so many hours of play is it abnormal to be this much in the red? Is it possible I'm doing something wrong or is it just variance? I have the Blackjack Trainer Pro app and have no problems or make any mistakes on it and can count a deck down in about 20-22 seconds. This negative variance has really been eating away at me since it seems like every time I get in the green I iust hit a massive losing streak and go back in the red. I would have thought that after this much play I would at least be even. Any advice, answers, or comments would really be appreciated.

Welcome flippyfish. Could you provide a little more specific information about your betting patterns. I am really after your bet ramp...at what count you place what bets and especially that max bet of 2x$300. The reason, I am asking for this info, is that I have found many newer players 'ramping up' too slowly for today's conditions, sometimes using a very slow ramp from decades ago when conditions were better.

My specific concern is that if you are ramping up too slowly, you might not be getting your max bet out until too late. I have seen players use a 1-12 or 1-16 spread but they don't get that max bet out until TC of +8 or higher, which occurs so infrequently it is almost useless. Basically has the effect of a much smaller spread. In a shoe game, you should have your max bet out by TC +4 or +5. Getting it out later has that ffect of playing with a smaller spread and not getting the full benefit of your max bets.

Thanks for the warm welcome Kewlj! My spread is as follows:

Tc 0- $15 or $25 min
Tc +1- 1 hand of $50
Tc +2- 2 hands of $75 each
Tc +3- 2 hands of $150 each
Tc +4- 2 hands of $200 each
Tc+5- 2 hands of $250 each
Tc +6- 2 hands of $300 each

Quote: Flippyfish

Thanks for the warm welcome Kewlj! My spread is as follows:

Tc 0- $15 or $25 min
Tc +1- 1 hand of $50
Tc +2- 2 hands of $75 each
Tc +3- 2 hands of $150 each
Tc +4- 2 hands of $200 each
Tc+5- 2 hands of $250 each
Tc +6- 2 hands of $300 each

Thank you. Should be a winning spread and ramp based on the rules mentioned. Blackjack pays 3-2 right? What is that surrender after you hit rule? I have never heard of that?

Yes blackjack plays 3:2. I had never heard of it either until I came here. It's one of the huge reasons I started going there so often. It's basically the ability to surrender your hand at any point during the hand except after doubles. So for example in a situation where I have a lot of money out, if I get a 9 against a dealer 10 and I hit and get a 7, instead of having to stand my 16 against the dealer 10 I now have the option of surrendering. I've found it helpful when I have a lot of money on the line and I hit and get a crap hand that I would normally surrender.

Sure you're not on a Spanish 21 table?

Yup. It's definitely not spanish 21 because when I get a 21 and the dealer gets a 21 I push and don't win

Quote: Flippyfish

Yes blackjack plays 3:2. I had never heard of it either until I came here. It's one of the huge reasons I started going there so often. It's basically the ability to surrender your hand at any point during the hand except after doubles. So for example in a situation where I have a lot of money out, if I get a 9 against a dealer 10 and I hit and get a 7, instead of having to stand my 16 against the dealer 10 I now have the option of surrendering. I've found it helpful when I have a lot of money on the line and I hit and get a crap hand that I would normally surrender.

Yes, that would be a helpful rule. I wonder what that add to the mix. Like regular surrender it would add more for counters who will be taking more advantage of it with their larger wagers out. Any of you math guys want to chime in and tell me what that rule is worth?

Now, back to your results, Flippyfish. I can offer you a little comparison based on my own experiences that may or may not help you.

I play BJ for a living, playing the same level (ballpark). I don't spread to 2 hands because that is not tolerated that well here in Vegas, but my top wager is just a little higher @ single hand of $400, most places. I track my play in estimation of rounds played rather than time (hours) but a fair estimate is that I play somewhere between 1000 hours and 1200 hours a year.

In the last 5 years, I have had 3 different losing 6 month periods, meaning I played for 500-600 hours and was behind for that length of time. Each of those years ended in the black for the whole year and 2 of the three actually pretty close to expectation. Only last year was significantly below expectation, but still in the black for the year. What I am saying is that for me, 500-600 hour losing periods are not that unusual (unfortunately).

Since your 400 hour period is approaching my half year 500-600 hour estimate, being in the red 12 grand after 400 hours doesn't seem strikingly unusual to me. Of course I have gone through these streaks several times and come out the other side. Going through such a period the first time, you question everything, just as you are doing.

Only think I would want to make sure of is that your game is sound, which I can only take your word for it. Be honest with yourself. Make sure you are not chasing losses, by betting bigger than called for when things aren't going well. Make sure you are sticking to that sound 'betting ramp and spread' mentioned and not cheating by placing wagers when the count is almost to such a point. These are traps that even good, and experienced counters sometimes fall into. The results of these little traps will have you over betting your advantage. You really have to be disciplined about your betting ramps and spread.

Thanks kewlj. It's incredibly disheartening to go through a losing streak. While I get emotional about the losses I make sure not to let it affect my game it's just unfortunate that my first 400 hours have to be a negative one. This new casino game I found is in a new card room/casino that opened up but there are definitely 10's in the deck and have all the rules I would expect from regular blackjack. Which is one of the reasons why I have become paranoid about them rigging the deck unbeknownst to us playing. Nevertheless I appreciate you sharing your experience with me. Sometimes listening to other people's horros stories can be reassuring to myself that as long as I continue to play a positive EV game I just need to wait out the storm whether it's a few months or a few years.

You gave WAY too much information about yourself, your age, where you go to school, where you've been backed off, and where you've played recently. You should edit that information out immediately, including the other thread you created.

That new card room you mentioned pays 6:5 on blackjacks and only has 6 deck shoes. The house advantage is around 2%, which is atrocious unless you're only wonging in when the TC is 4, which is only breakeven at that point. Their maximum is $600 and minimum $10 at one table and $15 at two others. They have a "syndicate" that banks the game since the house can't bank it, even though the syndicate IS the house. Not sure what their surrender after hit rule adds to the player. Either way, it's sure not enough to compensate for the 6:5 on blackjack.

You still have about three actual casinos, not card rooms, in your area to play at, unless you are also backed off from those casinos.

Harrah's is quick to back off, so my advice is to keep it low key and avoid getting backed off there since that will mean you can't play at any Caesar's Entertainment properties.

Counting down a deck in 20-22 seconds is pretty slow for Hi-Lo, but accuracy is more important than speed. Are you sure you aren't making any mistakes in person? Deck estimation and true count conversion are extremely important in making those play variations.

Who cares what players say about hitting your 12s and 13s. You must do it if it's the correct decision to do so.

For most counting systems, the chance of being behind after 400 hours of play is around 2-5%, I believe.

A few other words: refuse to play marginal games and don't just play for the sake of playing just because it's the only game available. Consider traveling to Vegas. I just checked and the flights are as cheap as $130 round trip if you book in advance on select dates.

The casino has 2 games of 6 deck shoes that pay out 3:2. I would obviously never pay 6:5. Also the maximum at all tables are $1,000. I don't know where you got this information from but it's not. true. Perhaps they have changed it since you last went there. Also yes they do have an ante but it's covered by the corporation so I don't have to pay it. Obviously I would never play 6:5 or pay an ante as that would destroy my EV. Lastly I have already been backed off of those 3 casinos as well. However when I went to harrahs in Las Vegas last month I was completely fine.

Quote: Shadowless

You gave WAY too much information about yourself, your age, where you go to school, where you've been backed off, and where you've played recently. You should edit that information out immediately, including the other thread you created.

That new card room you mentioned pays 6:5 on blackjacks and only has 6 deck shoes. The house advantage is around 2%, which is atrocious unless you're only wonging in when the TC is 4, which is only breakeven at that point. Their maximum is $600 and minimum $10 at one table and $15 at two others. They have a "syndicate" that banks the game since the house can't bank it, even though the syndicate IS the house. Not sure what their surrender after hit rule adds to the player. Either way, it's sure not enough to compensate for the 6:5 on blackjack.

You still have about three actual casinos, not card rooms, in your area to play at, unless you are also backed off from those casinos.

Harrah's is quick to back off, so my advice is to keep it low key and avoid getting backed off there since that will mean you can't play at any Caesar's Entertainment properties.

Counting down a deck in 20-22 seconds is pretty slow for Hi-Lo, but accuracy is more important than speed. Are you sure you aren't making any mistakes in person? Deck estimation and true count conversion are extremely important in making those play variations.

Who cares what players say about hitting your 12s and 13s. You must do it if it's the correct decision to do so.

For most counting systems, the chance of being behind after 400 hours of play is around 2-5%, I believe.

A few other words: refuse to play marginal games and don't just play for the sake of playing just because it's the only game available. Consider traveling to Vegas. I just checked and the flights are as cheap as $130 round trip if you book in advance on select dates.

Wow you are Shadowless(good name BTW) I see you have posted 31 times, but this is the first time I actually noticed.

I don't know anything about the current BJ conditions at his casinos, but I was also thinking the same thing about him giving to much information. Apparently I been here posting since 2012 with over 8k pots. Yet I haven't posted that much infatuation about myself.

Quote: Shadowless

You gave WAY too much information about yourself, your age, where you go to school, where you've been backed off, and where you've played recently. You should edit that information out immediately, including the other thread you created.

That new card room you mentioned pays 6:5 on blackjacks and only has 6 deck shoes. The house advantage is around 2%, which is atrocious unless you're only wonging in when the TC is 4, which is only breakeven at that point. Their maximum is $600 and minimum $10 at one table and $15 at two others. They have a "syndicate" that banks the game since the house can't bank it, even though the syndicate IS the house. Not sure what their surrender after hit rule adds to the player. Either way, it's sure not enough to compensate for the 6:5 on blackjack.

You still have about three actual casinos, not card rooms, in your area to play at, unless you are also backed off from those casinos.

Harrah's is quick to back off, so my advice is to keep it low key and avoid getting backed off there since that will mean you can't play at any Caesar's Entertainment properties.

Counting down a deck in 20-22 seconds is pretty slow for Hi-Lo, but accuracy is more important than speed. Are you sure you aren't making any mistakes in person? Deck estimation and true count conversion are extremely important in making those play variations.

Who cares what players say about hitting your 12s and 13s. You must do it if it's the correct decision to do so.

For most counting systems, the chance of being behind after 400 hours of play is around 2-5%, I believe.

A few other words: refuse to play marginal games and don't just play for the sake of playing just because it's the only game available. Consider traveling to Vegas. I just checked and the flights are as cheap as $130 round trip if you book in advance on select dates.

Wow you are Shadowless(good name BTW) I see you have posted 31 times, but this is the first time I actually noticed.

I don't know anything about the current BJ conditions at his casinos, but I was also thinking the same thing about him giving to much information. Apparently I been here posting since 2012 with over 8k pots. Yet I haven't posted that much info about myself.

Quote: Flippyfish

Hey guys I am new to this site but I have read a lot of the threads on here and thought this would be the appropriate place to ask this question. I use hi-Lo system along with illustrious 18 and fab 4. However I do not use the indices of hitting a 13 against a dealer 2 or 3 and I do not hit 12 against a 4 at negative counts unless I'm heads up against dealer (I find it causes more issues with people at the table that I don't feel like dealing with) . Other than that I rarely lose the count and have decent deck estimation. Over the past few years I have accumulated somewhere between 350-400 hours. I usually play shoe games (6,8 decks) with an avg of 1.5 deck penetration. Never playing anything that exceeds over 2 decks. I usually play 1 hand at $15 or $25 min tables and spread to a max bet of 2 hands of $300 each. Bankroll is approx 40k. I live in the San Diego area and have been backed off of almost every casino in the area e.g Barona, sycuan, pala, viejas, pechanga etc. however my problem has not been getting backed off as much as it has been losing money. My first 30 hours of playing I was down about 9k. Within the next 100 hours I made it all back and was up in the profit about 12k at around the 180 hour mark.(not too bad of an hourly wage for a 23 year old. However in literally less than 25 hours I managed to lose all of it and was back in the negative. My bankroll remained stagnant for a decent amount of time when at around the 290 hour mark I hit some positive flux and was back in the profit about 10k. This again remained for another 25-30 hours but then last week in a span of 3 days (roughly 15-20 hours on my trip) I hit some serious negative flux of about 22k and find myself back in the red about 12k. I knew that this was a brutal game going into it but I would have thought that after around 350-400 hours of playing over the past few years I would at least be in the positive. I recently have been playing at a new casino that opened up called Seven Mile in Chula Vista where I lost most of this money. Is it possible that they are rigging the decks or removing 10's or something? They have good rules (split 3 times, DAS, h17, 1.5 pen, and even offer surrender after you hit) but I seem to just be getting destroyed there. Also after so many hours of play is it abnormal to be this much in the red? Is it possible I'm doing something wrong or is it just variance? I have the Blackjack Trainer Pro app and have no problems or make any mistakes on it and can count a deck down in about 20-22 seconds. This negative variance has really been eating away at me since it seems like every time I get in the green I iust hit a massive losing streak and go back in the red. I would have thought that after this much play I would at least be even. Any advice, answers, or comments would really be appreciated.

Agua, Agua Spa, Fantasy Springs, Morango, there are more as well.

Quote: Flippyfish

Hey guys I am new to this site but I have read a lot of the threads on here and thought this would be the appropriate place to ask this question. I use hi-Lo system along with illustrious 18 and fab 4. However I do not use the indices of hitting a 13 against a dealer 2 or 3 and I do not hit 12 against a 4 at negative counts unless I'm heads up against dealer (I find it causes more issues with people at the table that I don't feel like dealing with) . Other than that I rarely lose the count and have decent deck estimation. Over the past few years I have accumulated somewhere between 350-400 hours. I usually play shoe games (6,8 decks) with an avg of 1.5 deck penetration. Never playing anything that exceeds over 2 decks. I usually play 1 hand at $15 or $25 min tables and spread to a max bet of 2 hands of $300 each. Bankroll is approx 40k. I live in the San Diego area and have been backed off of almost every casino in the area e.g Barona, sycuan, pala, viejas, pechanga etc. however my problem has not been getting backed off as much as it has been losing money. My first 30 hours of playing I was down about 9k. Within the next 100 hours I made it all back and was up in the profit about 12k at around the 180 hour mark.(not too bad of an hourly wage for a 23 year old. However in literally less than 25 hours I managed to lose all of it and was back in the negative. My bankroll remained stagnant for a decent amount of time when at around the 290 hour mark I hit some positive flux and was back in the profit about 10k. This again remained for another 25-30 hours but then last week in a span of 3 days (roughly 15-20 hours on my trip) I hit some serious negative flux of about 22k and find myself back in the red about 12k. I knew that this was a brutal game going into it but I would have thought that after around 350-400 hours of playing over the past few years I would at least be in the positive. I recently have been playing at a new casino that opened up called Seven Mile in Chula Vista where I lost most of this money. Is it possible that they are rigging the decks or removing 10's or something? They have good rules (split 3 times, DAS, h17, 1.5 pen, and even offer surrender after you hit) but I seem to just be getting destroyed there. Also after so many hours of play is it abnormal to be this much in the red? Is it possible I'm doing something wrong or is it just variance? I have the Blackjack Trainer Pro app and have no problems or make any mistakes on it and can count a deck down in about 20-22 seconds. This negative variance has really been eating away at me since it seems like every time I get in the green I iust hit a massive losing streak and go back in the red. I would have thought that after this much play I would at least be even. Any advice, answers, or comments would really be appreciated.

Agua, Agua Spa, Fantasy Springs, Morango, there are more as well.

Hey Flippyfish, and welcome to the forums! There is indeed a wealth of knowledge/information available on here as I'm sure you've noticed. You seem like you have most of your bases covered but are coming up on the wrong side of the coin. This is definitely the right area to figure that out, so let's take a look...

Quote: Flippyfish

Thanks for the warm welcome Kewlj! My spread is as follows:

Tc 0- $15 or $25 min
Tc +1- 1 hand of $50
Tc +2- 2 hands of $75 each
Tc +3- 2 hands of $150 each
Tc +4- 2 hands of $200 each
Tc+5- 2 hands of $250 each
Tc +6- 2 hands of $300 each

I see a small issue in your spread (unless it's cover). You said you're playing 6 or 8 deck shoe games that are H17... The house edge according to the Wizard's House Edge Calculator is .56%. So why would you be upping your bet at TC +1, when you have no advantage? Again, I understand this could be for 'ramping' purposes and cover, but I hope you don't think you're making money by upping your bet at TC +1.

Assuming you wong out at anything less than TC -1, and giving the small benefit (bigger spread) that you always bet $15 at TC 0 or TC -1, and taking 2/3 your total bet as your bet at any one level (since you spread to 2 hands... i.e. two hands of $75 each is the same as 1 hand of $100). I'm showing the EV per 100 hands for your spread/game to be: **$41.60

Your average bet is: **$55.04

The more important factor than your hours is your hands per hour. Hours is what we talk about and refer too, but this is assuming you're playing a good number of hands per hour. You seem fairly educated and intelligent on the topic, so I'm assuming you're playing more open tables and getting more hands per hour.

Original Standard Deviation in Blackjack for 1 hand: 1.1*AvgBet (the 1.1 is a calculated number per the game of blackjack done previously by much better math people than I). So your SD for 1 hand = 1.1 * 55.04 = 60.54

The standard deviation past 1 hand can easily be calculated by the following... SD = OriginalSD*Sqrt(NumHands), where OriginalSD = 60.54 from above.

So if you play 100 hands per hour, and have played 400 hours, then you've played 40,000 hands. So what are your EV and Standard Deviations?

EV(40,000) = gain per hand * numHands = 0.492047759 * 40,000 = **$19,681.91. Or you could do your hourly rate * 400 assuming you play 100 hands per hour (this is less accurate), which = $16,640.. but let's stick with the more accurate gain per hand calculation.

So at this point, after 400 hours, with the rules/spread above, you'd expect to be up about $20,000... BUT this doesn't include your standard deviations accounting for the variance of the game. So what's the Standard Deviation for 40,000 hands? Easy... plug and chug:

SD(40,000) = OriginalSD * Sqrt(NumHands) = 60.54 * Sqrt(40,000) = 60.54 * 200 = $12,108. This is for ONE standard deviation with 66% confidence. 1SD is 66%, 2SD is 95%, 3SD is 99.9%. So if you want to know if you're getting cheated, if you're not within 3SD, you're getting cheated (with a decent sampling size of course).

1SD = $12,108
2SD = $24,216
3SD = $36,324

Thus, if you were down MORE than $36,000 (from expectation), then you could conclude you're getting cheated. So that's a lot of math... What does it tell us?

- With 66% confidence, you should be UP ~$20k, give or take $12k.
- With 95% confidence, you should be UP ~$20k, give or take $25k.
- With 99.9% confidence, you should be UP ~$20k, give or take $36k.

You stated in your OP that you're back to being down about $12k. Well since you should be UP nearly $20k, and you're down $12k, you're off by $32k. Thus, you DO fall within the realms of the SD, but you're definitely on the far left end of the bell curve. The fact that you do seem to be going back and forth would be a tiny bit more indicative that you're snapshot of 'right now' being down $12k is in fact real variance and not getting cheated. However, if you play another couple hundred hours and are down more, then clearly you can indicate you're outside of 3SD and conclude something fishy is up.

Conclusion
We can't conclude that you're getting cheated as you're within SD's. However, you are indeed on the far left of the bell curve and this would have me also raising my eyebrows. Also, do recall I'm taking your spread from $15 for TC -1 and TC 0, which if you're betting more ($25) then your EV per 100 hands would be less and your EV for 40,000 hands would be less. So you probably aren't $32k out of EV. My educated guess would be something more like $25-$30k. Still bad, and out to the left, but not on the edge of 3SD anymore. I like your spread, a lot actually. You make your bigger jump from TC +2 to TC +3, which is better than TC +3 to TC +4 because of the frequencies. My only 2 concerns are 1) upping your bet at TC +1 while you don't have an advantage, and 2) having your max bet out at TC +6, which is quite late in shoe games. I agree with kewlj that you should have your max bet out at TC +4 or TC +5 (I'd say TC +5 in your case since you have such a large spread). Congrats on putting a good spread together though.

My issue here is you seem quite educated on the topic, but you do in fact seem to be another counter that 'thinks' he has a winning game, instead of 'knowing.' You MUST know your numbers, how to calculate your EV's, SD's, etc.

**All of the numbers provided are explained in FULL DETAIL on how to obtain them in my A to Z Counting Cards in Blackjack thread.

Bonus
Since I really do feel like you're quite educated/experienced, I'll go ahead and show you all the math calculations/excel sheet for your specific game/spread:


*excel rounds, but I used the HE above and +-.5 for the advantages.
*spread assumes 1 hand. If you were to go to 2 hands, it's 150% of your 1 hand bet, which is exactly how you described your spread.

Because I can't help myself... If your bet is $25 for TC -1 and TC 0, your EV per 100 hands = 37.75, avg bet = 61.80, EV for 40,000 hands = 17,861.11. Your OriginalSD = 1.1*61.80 = 67.89. SD for 40,000 hands = 13,596.

1SD = $13,600
2SD = $27,200
3SD = $40,800

With this, you would be about 2SD out from your EV... which definitely sucks and is on the left end, but is no longer on the boarder of 3SD and possible cheating considerations. Not saying 2SD out is 'acceptable' to not raise an eyebrow at, but it certainly is much different than the border of 3SD.

***Do you have an average hands per hour number over your 400 hours?? Even better if you know the actual number of hands you've played! This would be VERY crucial in accurately calculating your EV/SD's.

This is again why I don't think you're getting cheated, you're just getting unlucky. I'd love to hear back from you when you have another 100 hours of play or so!

Romes, I really appreciate you taking the time to do all that for me. It was without a doubt one of the most helpful posts I have read online and the reason I joined this forum. I will make sure to implement these equations in the future as they are a major resource. Unfortunately because I play at different casinos often I have not calculated my number of hands. Some casinos are faster while others are slower. That being said I think that one of the reasons for my suspicions was due to the fact that I have actually only played roughly 45-50 hours at his casino in total. The last 15-20 or so is when I hit that negative swing. If I had played the full 400 hours at this casino and had the same results I probably wouldn't be so skeptical about the integrity of the game im playing. However, due to the fact that it's my largest swing ever and its a very new and small "card-room" and that it all happened within only 20 hrs naturally the paranoia set in. Once again I really appreciate you helping me out. I will probably continue to play at this casino and will definitely keep you posted on the next 100 results.

Quote: Flippyfish

Romes, I really appreciate you taking the time to do all that for me. It was without a doubt one of the most helpful posts I have read online and the reason I joined this forum. I will make sure to implement these equations in the future as they are a major resource. Unfortunately because I play at different casinos often I have not calculated my number of hands. Some casinos are faster while others are slower. That being said I think that one of the reasons for my suspicions was due to the fact that I have actually only played roughly 45-50 hours at his casino in total. The last 15-20 or so is when I hit that negative swing. If I had played the full 400 hours at this casino and had the same results I probably wouldn't be so skeptical about the integrity of the game im playing. However, due to the fact that it's my largest swing ever and its a very new and small "card-room" and that it all happened within only 20 hrs naturally the paranoia set in. Once again I really appreciate you helping me out. I will probably continue to play at this casino and will definitely keep you posted on the next 100 results.

I'm really glad you found it helpful. You seemed like an experienced player looking to take their game to the next level and to get a better understanding of the math revolving around the game, so I wanted to give that to you.

Ah, well that makes a bit more sense that you're only 50 hours or so in. When you say "his" casino, do you know the owner? Is this a small 'family owned' type card room? If it's a place that isn't regulated I would certainly be tracking my numbers/info VERY closely to make sure I wasn't getting cheated. Find out when they open/close or change cards/etc. Go when they're changing the cards and they should show you all of the cards/decks in full. The variance can be quite horrible, but using the standard deviations I showed above is how we prove the game works... After a million hands you're EV might be like $1 million PLUS or MINUS $300k. So what does that tell you? With 99.9% confidence you're going to be up $500k! ...just takes a million hands to get there lol.

I'm glad to hear you'll start looking in to the EV/SD's. They're all in my thread I linked you too. Feel free to ask questions in there or message me.

Lastly, a suggestion if you don't mind. Most counters, especially those that leverage the math and know they have a winning game, always keep records. A simple excel sheet that says "Date - Place - Game(rules) - Hours Played - Hands Played - EV - Actual Value (AV)"... When you get home from playing simply type in your session info/results. It seems tedious and I myself didn't do this till a couple years ago, but I will tell you first hand it is a phenomenal resource of information and a thorough way to check both where you're at in your journey and your play. You're right that there are a LOT of factors to getting the number of hands you've played, but if you're experienced (and you appear to be) then you should easily be able to estimate the number of hands you got in a session. If you're at a fuller table playing moderately slow and you know you were probably getting 60-70 hands per hour, then use that for your calculation. If you don't have a good gauge on this already, take a clicker with you and keep it in your pocket. Or, count the number of hands you get in 1 shoe, then see how many shoes you get in an hour. Knowing how many hands you play is the most crucial part in knowing where you're at in your journey. Best of luck!

Quote: Romes

If you don't have a good gauge on this already, take a clicker with you and keep it in your pocket. !

Um, ya, I wouldn't do that.

Quote: AxelWolf

Um, ya, I wouldn't do that.

agreed, it's a felony, or close enough that you are likely to have legal issues

Sorry I meant to say "this". It is a family owned card room but it seems a bit nicer than the average california card room. It has a similar feel to The Linq's table games in Vegas does. Small little area to play table games but 1 or 2 playable games to generate positive EV. The difference is that this place just doesn't offer slots it has poker tables instead. They opened up less than 3 months ago so I doubt they would be rigging decks but I had to exhaust all options to help rationalize the negative flux. Also thanks for the advice. I will probably start religiously tracking my play on a spreadsheet this month now.

Quote: Flippyfish

Sorry I meant to say "this". It is a family owned card room but it seems a bit nicer than the average california card room. It has a similar feel to The Linq's table games in Vegas does. Small little area to play table games but 1 or 2 playable games to generate positive EV. The difference is that this place just doesn't offer slots it has poker tables instead. They opened up less than 3 months ago so I doubt they would be rigging decks but I had to exhaust all options to help rationalize the negative flux. Also thanks for the advice. I will probably start religiously tracking my play on a spreadsheet this month now.

Welcome to the forum, Flip, and here's to better variance in the near future. Good discussion, guys.