Long term basic strategy.

Hello, I am new to this forum... Me and my wife started to get into some casino games here locally in Oklahoma. We like to play blackjack and video poker and throw a few dollars in the penny slots for just entertainment.

The local blackjack rules are 3:2 on BJ, S17 and you can double after split. From what I have researched these are not bad rules.

Anyways i am not a rich guy so ive only ever bought in at a table for like 40-60 dollars. I have memorized basic strategy and there are times where i have sat down with 40 bucks and got wiped out really quick, and other times where i take like 30 bucks and play for a few hours and break even. We usually flat bet most of the time at 5 bucks and maybe bet 10 or 15 a hand if we are up a bit of money...

I know that basic strategy only gets the house edge a little less than one percent and the house still will take your money over the long run but my main question is how much bankroll should i be taking with me before i play. (These are 5$ tables.) Ive heard anything from 50 bets to 100 bets etc. I am not fast enough to even consider counting cards but i do enjoy playing the game and would like to lose as little money as possible and have some fun.

Do i need to be trying to leave the table breaking even each time (having enough bankroll to ride out the bad string of cards) or in the long run will i have nights where i make a bit of money and over the long run have bad nights and good nights that average out to close the the few % loss...?

To sum up the question is do i need to take enough bankroll( and how much?) to lose as little as possible or break even on each session or will taking small amounts of money and sometimes losing it all still yield my less than 1% loss over the long run using basic strategy.

Thanks for any help.

Quote: brettecantwell

Hello, I am new to this forum... Me and my wife started to get into some casino games here locally in Oklahoma. We like to play blackjack and video poker and throw a few dollars in the penny slots for just entertainment.

The local blackjack rules are 3:2 on BJ, S17 and you can double after split. From what I have researched these are not bad rules.

Anyways i am not a rich guy so ive only ever bought in at a table for like 40-60 dollars. I have memorized basic strategy and there are times where i have sat down with 40 bucks and got wiped out really quick, and other times where i take like 30 bucks and play for a few hours and break even. We usually flat bet most of the time at 5 bucks and maybe bet 10 or 15 a hand if we are up a bit of money...

I know that basic strategy only gets the house edge a little less than one percent and the house still will take your money over the long run but my main question is how much bankroll should i be taking with me before i play. (These are 5$ tables.) Ive heard anything from 50 bets to 100 bets etc. I am not fast enough to even consider counting cards but i do enjoy playing the game and would like to lose as little money as possible and have some fun.

Do i need to be trying to leave the table breaking even each time (having enough bankroll to ride out the bad string of cards) or in the long run will i have nights where i make a bit of money and over the long run have bad nights and good nights that average out to close the the few % loss...?

To sum up the question is do i need to take enough bankroll( and how much?) to lose as little as possible or break even on each session or will taking small amounts of money and sometimes losing it all still yield my less than 1% loss over the long run using basic strategy.

Thanks for any help.

I'm not sure exactly what you are asking. But i get the feeling you want to know, how much money you need to have in order to ride out the variance and make sure you lose just a little, or win a little? You don't seem to be asking how much money you need to play for x amount of time.

You mentioned something about needing 100 units. Someone probably told you its hard to get behind 100 units, but that does not mean you will suddenly start winning once your down 100 units. theirs no magic number of units you will lose before things will turn around. Once they are gone, they are gone.
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Quote: brettecantwell

I know that basic strategy only gets the house edge a little less than one percent and the house still will take your money over the long run but my main question is how much bankroll should i be taking with me before i play. (These are 5$ tables.)

$5

You'll lose the ability for basic strategy doubles and splits (at least on the first hand), but you will still end up with more money than if you brought the $250 or $500 that you've heard else where.

A couple exceptions:
You can earn comps to offset losses with more time at the table
You care about something other than maximizing profit

Yeah, Im looking to just have a good time at the table and if a lose a little money but had a good time then im good, obviously winning a bit would make it even more fun. Im just concerned if 40-60 bucks is enough....( doesnt seem like it because a bad swing of cards really hurts this small amount) For example one time i sat down with 40 bucks and got 8 loser hands and lost it all very quick and obviously didnt have much fun. Then one night my wife sat down with 40 dollars and got up to almost 100, lost a little but still left the table almost doubling her money.

Then we see a guy rubbing the table when he gets an ace or face cards and making big bets and winning the money ;P i guess they call it gambling for a reason...

Thanks for the replies.

Quote: brettecantwell

Hello, I am new to this forum... Me and my wife started to get into some casino games here locally in Oklahoma. We like to play blackjack and video poker and throw a few dollars in the penny slots for just entertainment.

The local blackjack rules are 3:2 on BJ, S17 and you can double after split. From what I have researched these are not bad rules.

Anyways i am not a rich guy so ive only ever bought in at a table for like 40-60 dollars. I have memorized basic strategy and there are times where i have sat down with 40 bucks and got wiped out really quick, and other times where i take like 30 bucks and play for a few hours and break even. We usually flat bet most of the time at 5 bucks and maybe bet 10 or 15 a hand if we are up a bit of money...

I know that basic strategy only gets the house edge a little less than one percent and the house still will take your money over the long run but my main question is how much bankroll should i be taking with me before i play. (These are 5$ tables.) Ive heard anything from 50 bets to 100 bets etc. I am not fast enough to even consider counting cards but i do enjoy playing the game and would like to lose as little money as possible and have some fun.

Do i need to be trying to leave the table breaking even each time (having enough bankroll to ride out the bad string of cards) or in the long run will i have nights where i make a bit of money and over the long run have bad nights and good nights that average out to close the the few % loss...?

To sum up the question is do i need to take enough bankroll( and how much?) to lose as little as possible or break even on each session or will taking small amounts of money and sometimes losing it all still yield my less than 1% loss over the long run using basic strategy.

Thanks for any help.

Welcome, Brett. I'm so glad that you joined us. When I saw Oklahoma my first thought was the dreaded ante. Is an ante required for each hand? If so is there a way to get it waived by betting higher or meeting some other requirement?

Quote: brettecantwell

We usually flat bet most of the time at 5 bucks and maybe bet 10 or 15 a hand if we are up a bit of money.

There are a number of strategies.

If you want to sit down and play for a while, the number I usually hear kicked around is 30 bets. Flat-betting $5, that's $150.

That should give you a reasonable chance of riding out a losing streak and making something of a comeback.

Never bring a 'piss me off' amount of
money. If losing a certain amount will
really piss you off, always bring less
than that. The amount varies with
the person.

Quote: 1BB

Welcome, Brett. I'm so glad that you joined us. When I saw Oklahoma my first thought was the dreaded ante. Is an ante required for each hand? If so is there a way to get it waived by betting higher or meeting some other requirement?

The casinos around here that i have been to (Northeast OK) will waive the ante when you have your players card, so i have not had to pay any antes yet. I noticed the dealers will transfer and mess with lots of dollar and .50c chips around on the tray... I asked the dealer what she was doing and she informed me how she was paying the antes. They have an entire slot on the tray set aside for the antes the house is paying. The dealer will do some strange thing and move chips around and throw markers in cash box etc etc.

I guess the casinos decided them paying the antes for the players was their best option because having the pay .50c a hand doesnt sound too appealing. Its really a non issue and never comes up, just about everyone has a players card and its too easy to go get one so there is no excuse to be paying the antes.... I have only seen one person lazy enough to not get up a walk the 50 feet to get his players card, and opting to pay the antes instead lol.

If you opt to pay the antes the dealer will give you dollars and .50c checks when you buy into the game.
Like i said earlier, its really a non issue as the casinos i have been to myself are taking the initiative and paying the antes when you have a player card, i assume the others in the state are doing the same as well.

Hey brett, and welcome to the forums!

Playing basic strategy with a S17 game like you mentioned is usually under half a percent house edge (i.e. < .5%). That is indeed a good game, so what does that mean for you? Well that means for every $100 you wager (which would be 20 times of betting $5) you'll lose, on average, about 40 cents. Not too bad if you stick to perfect basic strategy if you ask me! Make sure you have the Stand 17 strategy, as it's just 'slightly' differnet from a Hit 17 game strategy. You can get the strategy for any game here from the Wizard's main site.

There's 2 ways I can do this for you, and I encourage you to understand both, for fun =).

1) Just tell you... If you're only betting $5, you'd probably be fine to play for hours with a few hundred bucks. So I'd recommend $250-$500. The more you 'rarely' bet $10 and $15 the more I'd recommend the higher end of that amount.

2) Show you the math! Let's say you like to play for 3 hours at a time. Assuming since this is a $5 S17 table it's mostly crowded, you'll probably get something like 70 hands per hour. So in 3 hours, you'll play about 210 hands. If you always bet $5, then in 3 hours you'll put through about $1,050 worth of 'action.' From this, if the casino has about a .4% house edge, you could expect to lose 1050 * .004 = $4.20. Thus, in 3 hours, you'd expect to lose $4.20. Not bad, especially if they comp you some food after, huh?!?! Well, there is this fickle witch called 'variance' in the game that means while you can expect to lose $4.20, you'll sometimes lose more, or sometimes you'll make money. Just like a coin, you'd expect in 10 flips for it to be 5 heads and 5 tails, but that's not always the case =). This variance can be mathematically figured out though in terms of "Standard Deviations." This is essentially the "plus or minus" number that you'll often hear referred to in political polls or something. This means while you expect X, plus or minus Y is also in the realm of possibility. Therefor, if we figure out your standard deviation, we'll know what your realm of possibility of losses are, and thus know how much to take so you should be able to play as long as you'd like!

Let's assume you have a $10 average bet. I know you bet $5 most of the time, but since you bet $10 and $15 now and then, plus I'd like to be on the safe side, let's go with $10 so that whatever number we find, we know you should be under that umbrella.

The standard deviation for any 1 hand of blackjack is your AvgBet * 1.1. The 1.1 number was figured out by mathematicians much smarter than myself, and it is a well known and accepted number for blackjack. So what's your Standard Deviation (SD) for 1 hand?

SD(1) = AvgBet * 1.1 = 10 * 1.1 = $11. This means on any given hand (on average) you could expect to make or lose $11. Given you can split, double, get paid extra on blackjacks, etc, this makes sense that you could win or lose more than your regular $10 bet.

So how do we find out the SD for your 3 hour session? SD(xHands) = SD(1) * Sqrt(NumHands). This means we take the square root of the number of hands you plan to play (210 from above for 3 hours) and multiply that by the 11 number we just calculated.

SD(3 hour session) = 11 * Sqrt(210) = $159.41.

So for a 3 hour session, you should expect to lose $8.40 (remember $10 avg bet), PLUS or MINUS $160 for the variance. See how wild blackjack can really be now?!?! But we have only 1 more step to do. Standard Deviations come with their own 'flavor' so to say. We calculated 1 Standard Deviation ($160).

1SD comes with 66% confidence.
2SD comes with 95% confidence.
3SD comes with 99.9% confidence.

These all come from statistics. All you need to know is we want to be CERTAIN that you have enough money, right? Well that means we want to be 99.9% sure you do! Thus, we need 3 Standard Deviations to be sure! 1SD = $160, so 3SD = $480.

And there you have it =). This means when you play THIS game of blackjack for 3 hours, getting about 70 hands per hour, betting $5 - $15, your Expected Value (EV) = -$8.40 PLUS or MINUS $480, and we can say this with 99.9% confidence. Do note that this means you could MAKE $480 too! Thus, while you won't always NEED to take $500, if you take $500 with you, you should NEVER lose all $500 of it. If you do, you either got amazingly unlucky, or you were cheated. Remember though, this is for your $5 - $15 bets. If you start betting more then this will of course change these numbers.

...Take $500 and you won't lose it in one 3 hour session =P.

Quote: brettecantwell

Anyways i am not a rich guy so ive only ever bought in at a table for like 40-60 dollars.

You yourself can see that $5 is a sizable chunk of $40 ; gambling with just flipping a coin could wipe it out, but especially betting $10-15.

Maybe you are sitting pretty sweet and it's just that you aren't used to gambling more. But I am guessing from your "not a rich guy" comment that there isn't a lot of extra cash to be blowing on this.

Personally I am thinking you should go on with your lives elsewhere and try to put some money aside in savings. If you really expect to be doing better soon, you might drop by once in a while for a lark to keep up with what's going on. If you feel a real pull, that's not good, I'd resist it and find something else.

You know, Brett, you can lose that $40 on one hand. Don't think it can't happen to you. I've been there, I've done that and I've rinsed and repeated. :-)

Quote: odiousgambit

You yourself can see that $5 is a sizable chunk of $40 ; gambling with just flipping a coin could wipe it out, but especially betting $10-15.

Maybe you are sitting pretty sweet and it's just that you aren't used to gambling more. But I am guessing from your "not a rich guy" comment that there isn't a lot of extra cash to be blowing on this.

Personally I am thinking you should go on with your lives elsewhere and try to put some money aside in savings. If you really expect to be doing better soon, you might drop by once in a while for a lark to keep up with what's going on. If you feel a real pull, that's not good, I'd resist it and find something else.

I hear you man, Its not that i cannot throw more money at a game, I like to think I choose not to let myself allot all that much for gambling, seeing the risk that for sure is there. The more Ive read and studied about blackjack lately, the more I have been "scared" to play the game the last few times i have played (realizing i honestly probably have no business playing a 5$ table with just 40-60 bucks), maybe that is a good thing i don't know... Perhaps i need to maybe consider not playing blackjack too often and let myself play only every once in a while and will feel better throwing down a bigger chunk of change to play. We have also taken the initiative to keep a spreadsheet of exactly how much money is going in and out of the casino each time we go. That helps keep things in check knowing exactly how far above or in the hole we really are.

Also thought about spending the time to learn to count cards, not so much to make money but just to be able to see how the game is going as i play. Ive tried a few counting drills and I already see that learning to count well will take many many hours of practice. I like a challenge so who knows....

This brings up a question as well, how often do you guys actually play blackjack or go to the casino in general? weekly, monthly? twice a year?

Quote: brettecantwell

how often do you guys actually play blackjack or go to the casino in general? weekly, monthly? twice a year?

I go on a weekly basis to collect mailer offers. There are a number of casinos I visit (although, not all on a weekly basis).

I don't remember quite enough about the machines in Oklahoma (beyond "everything seems Class II"), so I wouldn't imagine that any serious machine play to earn mailers is a good deal.

Quote: Dieter

I go on a weekly basis to collect mailer offers. There are a number of casinos I visit (although, not all on a weekly basis).

I don't remember quite enough about the machines in Oklahoma (beyond "everything seems Class II"), so I wouldn't imagine that any serious machine play to earn mailers is a good deal.

From the looking around i have done there are Class II slots around, evidenced by the bingo card on the screen, but there appear to be alot of Class III as well, that have no bingo pattern. On the video poker i am not sure if class II VP will have a bingo card but i havent seen any VP with bingo cards. Most of them are the IGT game kings. One of the local casinos close to me even has a group of 6 IGT machines with signage above displaying full payout % advertising and the paytable is 9/6 on JoB. The rest of the video poker around here is lower pay except for one single machine in another casino that is in the middle of a bunch of lower pay machines. Ive never seen a genie pop up so i am pretty confident the VP i have played is Class III.

Brett,

You sound like me. I enjoy playing BJ (relatively new to it) and am definitely a 'low roller.' The casino closest to my house has $3 BJ, so I can make $60 usually last for over an hour. I discovered that a $5 bet is a little too much for a $60 bankroll (having gone through it in about 15 minutes once or twice). I can't recall where I read it, but I thought I saw somewhere that one's minimum bet should be no bigger than 1/20 of your bankroll, but I could be wrong. I see people ALL the time buy in $20, but almost all of them are broke within 10 minutes. (At the same, I see folks put down a couple of hundred bucks, flat betting $5-$10, and they'll be wiped out within 30-40 minutes--but usually it's because they don't know basic strategy and make plenty of mistakes.)

I had some good luck when I first started playing (using basic strategy), but I realize now that it was luck, as my gambling fund has slowly diminished over the last several months. Yes, some nights I come back with more than I left with, but more often than not, I've lost money during the session. But I enjoy playing the game, having a beer while I play, talking to the other players (most of them at least) and to the dealer. A warm and amiable dealer will always get a tip from me, even if I'm losing, because s/he has made the game even more enjoyable.

But realizing that I don't want to lose every time I play, I joined this site at the beginning of July 2015 and have found it very informative. I'm learning to count cards and several members on here have given me great advice on how to start this process. My goal is to try it out in October, when I'll attend a convention that's being held at the local Indian casino. I've also learned that when I go try it out, I'm going to need a bigger bankroll than I've ever used, which is a tad scary (at least right now). You can learn to count, too, but like most things in life, it'll take time.

As for how often I play. During the school year (I'm a teacher) I'd play 1-3x monthly, but now that I'm on summer vacation, I'm playing 4-6x monthly (which explains the more rapid decline of my gambling money!). Enjoy the game, and welcome to the WoV!

Brett,

You kind of sound like me, too... about 20 years ago! :P It was not uncommon for me to have a $40-$60 trip bankroll. Of course things were a little different in that $2 tables were fairly easy to find back then. Plus, I would consider myself lucky to have 1-2 gambling trips a year. There were much fewer casino options back then, too.

I think you should just keep doing what you are doing. It's all just one long session, anyway. Bring what you are comfortable losing for the trip/session. If you win, great! If you lose, well, it does suck when you lose fast, but there's always next time.

As for bringing more to the table, allow me to pose a hypothetical:

Let's say you brought $120 instead of $60 on your next trip. You buy in for $60, and hit a rough shoe and lose 12 straight. I hope this never happens to you, but some time, it may. Well, lucky for you, you brought an extra $60 this time, right? So you re-buy. The thing is, the next $60 has just as much chance of evaporating in 12 hands as the previous $60. The cards have no memory. And although when you originally sat down, the odds said that you should, on average, be down $0.60 after 24 hands, that is not the case any more. The odds now say that you should be down $60.30 after 24 hands (including the 12 hands you have already played). There is no "cosmic force" that will try to steer you back toward even at this point.

And while, as Romes pointed earlier, bringing $500 will almost guarantee you 3 hrs of play, There is also a chance (0.1% by his numbers) that you will go bust in less than 3 hours. Would you be comfortable losing that amount in 3 hours?

To answer your original question, though, it doesn't matter when you end your sessions. Like I said above, you can think of your lifetime as one long session. You may occasionally take a 5 minute bathroom break, or a 6-month live-your-normal-life-outside-the-casino break. Over that one session, your loss will tend toward (house edge) X (your total amount bet).

As far as advice: Take only what you are comfortable losing, and stay away from the ATM. Divide your trip bankroll up into a few buy-ins. If you lose a buy-in, leave the table and come back later. Set a win stop limit, or time limit, and color up when you hit that limit. This will not help you win more or lose less, but it will prolong your casino stay.

This sounds like what you have been doing, so keep it up. You're doing fine.

Hey thanks for the kind words and helpful advice. Yeah I'm trying to be cautious on the money front, me and and my wife will empty out wallets of any money and take only what we plan to gamble/lose.

I did ask a dealer if they offered any lower limit tables like 2$ games during the slow times. She commented that at one time they did offer 2$ blackjack but dont anymore. I also asked if it was possible to request a lower limit like 2$ if i come at a slower time, she said no so it looked like 5$ dollar tables are the lowest I have around me.

I did order a blackjack set and felt to practice at home with 6 decks. One of us plays 3-4 hands while the other deals. Wouldn't you know it that when playing at home the luck seems to be better lol ;) My wife turned 50 dollars in reds into 150 bucks, i mentioned i wished that happened at the casino. lol