What's the probability of doubling my bankroll?
July 15th, 2015 at 1:48:05 PM
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Hi all, this is my first post on this forum.
I have been playing BJ for quite sometime, and wanting to give it a more serious attempt in the next few years. I want to get an estimate of return on investment given the conditions I will be playing. I use zen count and all index plays (beside splitting and doubling on 20s/soft 20s).
I will be playing mostly 2 deck games with at least 60% penetration, H17, DAS, split to 4 hands except for A, no surrender.
I will be spreading from 1 units to 5 units on one hand, or 3 units each on 2 hands. my total bankroll is 1000 units. I will be betting max when I'm at 1% edge, which is TC 6 on the zen count. (so I will be playing half Kelly) I will be modifying my max bets after every 200 units change in bankroll in either direction.
I'm trying to figure out what's the probability of doubling my bankroll after 1000 hours of play, assuming 100 rounds per hour. Can some one please give me a pointer on how to estimate the probability of any given result? Such as the probability of me ending up with 0.5x, 2x, 3x, nx of my bankroll after 1000 hours.
I have been playing BJ for quite sometime, and wanting to give it a more serious attempt in the next few years. I want to get an estimate of return on investment given the conditions I will be playing. I use zen count and all index plays (beside splitting and doubling on 20s/soft 20s).
I will be playing mostly 2 deck games with at least 60% penetration, H17, DAS, split to 4 hands except for A, no surrender.
I will be spreading from 1 units to 5 units on one hand, or 3 units each on 2 hands. my total bankroll is 1000 units. I will be betting max when I'm at 1% edge, which is TC 6 on the zen count. (so I will be playing half Kelly) I will be modifying my max bets after every 200 units change in bankroll in either direction.
I'm trying to figure out what's the probability of doubling my bankroll after 1000 hours of play, assuming 100 rounds per hour. Can some one please give me a pointer on how to estimate the probability of any given result? Such as the probability of me ending up with 0.5x, 2x, 3x, nx of my bankroll after 1000 hours.
July 15th, 2015 at 7:16:40 PM
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Using FULL Kelly, you have a 2/3 chance to double your bankroll and a 1/3 chance to lose half of it before doubling.
I am not sure for half Kelly.
TC 6 is a 2.5% edge.
Assuming a 25k bankroll and full Kelly, you should be betting $481.25 at TC 6, or two hands of $351 each if playing with other players.
Half Kelly is half that, so $240 for one hand and $185 on each of two hands.
With a 25k bank:
Bet $96 per true count over 1
$48 for half Kelly.
With a 50k bank:
Bet $192 per true count over 1
$96 for half Kelly.
Round as you may.
I am not sure for half Kelly.
TC 6 is a 2.5% edge.
Assuming a 25k bankroll and full Kelly, you should be betting $481.25 at TC 6, or two hands of $351 each if playing with other players.
Half Kelly is half that, so $240 for one hand and $185 on each of two hands.
With a 25k bank:
Bet $96 per true count over 1
$48 for half Kelly.
With a 50k bank:
Bet $192 per true count over 1
$96 for half Kelly.
Round as you may.
