ODDS OF LOSING 14 HANDS OF BJ IN A ROW

What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)

Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?

Many thanks for anyone who can help

Quote: alexroach1992

What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)

The probability of losing 14 in a row is about p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.

Quote:

Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?

The probability of losing x in a row is about p = (0.4787)^x. So the odds are about [(1-p)/p] -to-1.

Since I am only giving p to four decimal place accuracy, you shouldn't express the answer with more than 4 significant digits. For example, the odds of losing 30 in a row are about 3964000000-to-1.

Quote: teliot

The probability of losing 14 in a row is p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.

nice question OP

now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too

that also makes it way easier to see that event

if one plays 100 hands i show the chance that somewhere in those 100 hands the chance to lose at least 14 in a row = abouts
1 in 657
1000 hands played = 1 in 59
so my non-professional opinion is more hands played increases the chance of seeing such a streak at least 1 time
when a Push breaks the losing streak


i ran recent cvdata sim of 411,318,396 hands played (400 million rounds)
24,574 losing streaks of 14 and higher for the player (pushes did not break the streak)

the average number of rounds to play to see such a losing run
push breaks the streak = 57,747.591 (from a Markov chain calculation)
push no break the streak = 19,453.96652 (from a Markov chain calculation too)

losing streaks in BJ, in my opinion,
are the highest from the games of Craps, Roulette and Baccarat (with the best HE bets)
because using BS does not take into consideration playing the hand to give the highest hand win percentage
(that would be for tournament style BJ play)

Quote: mustangsally

now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties don't break the streak.

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?

I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

Quote: teliot

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties are allowed to occur in the streak.

that looks good to me

so over
100 rounds played the probability to see at least 1 such run of 14 losses increases to abouts 1 in 224
1000 rounds = 1 in 20 (lucky 1)


i would say
not one BJ player would think that should ever happen

i am just guessing on that,
but it could and does happen and should be expected to happen

Quote: alexroach1992

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?

I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

not that risky if you play to win just 1 or 2 times and stop forever

the risk lies in playing it more than 1 time and keeping on playing
the more rounds you play the chances keep increasing that you will see such a losing streak

good luck in your fun

Quote: alexroach1992

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?

I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

If it's online then there's probably a 95% it will happen.

It's on William Hill...I'd imagine all the simulators they use are regulated. Unlikely they would get away with them being rigged?

3 things and 2 cents

*you can spot this kind of post with its subject [in caps no less] 10 miles away and it's always one of two things: the poster has taken a terrible beating several times in a row and thinks it is near impossible

*or is thinking about doing the martingale

*the OP is never interested in learning the math himself, nice try Teliot

so the OP is the latter type ; my 2 cents is, "forget it". The martingale has been around for centuries. You can skip the math [which I am thinking is your wont anyway] and just stare that fact in the face. Either that or locate the article about the guy who cleaned out the casinos and the martingale is how he did it.

Quote: odiousgambit

*the OP is never interested in learning the math himself, nice try Teliot

Oh, I thought it was an Ace-like player posting. Silly me.

Quote: teliot

Oh, I thought it was an Ace-like player posting. Silly me.

You though the OP was ruffied while playing blackjack and and added 10 to the the actual number of hands lost?

thanks for the replies guys!

Quote: alexroach1992

thanks for the replies guys!

and here is a way to use your new found knowledge

say the probability of a loss (no tie counts) = 0.524195435
so to lose 14 in a row = 0.524195435^14 = 1 in 8,454.6

1 - that = the chance to win your Marty 1 time
= 0.99988172164289369159809697846724

now say you want to win 5,859 times in a row (and with a natural BJ you could win good money too)
the chance to win that many times in a row = 0.99988172164289369159809697846724 ^ 5859 = 0.500056655

about 50%
or a coin flipper

how much real $$$ could you win over those 5,859 wins B4 your 1st loss?
i hope it is more than what you could lose with a 14 step Marty (of course it really will not be)

have fun and give some updates of your play if you due play

I suppose I should not fail to include my little ditty I have for the marty now:

You are basically just pressing when you are losing. Wouldn't you rather be pressing when you are winning?

Quote: alexroach1992

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?

I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

Yes,
You can be pretty confident of winning 10p.

Quote: odiousgambit

I suppose I should not fail to include my little ditty I have for the marty now:
You are basically just pressing when you are losing. Wouldn't you rather be pressing when you are winning?

we all would
but no giving away any secrets

and know exactly when to stop too

********************************************
how about this one

"ODDS OF WINNING 1,000 TIMES IN A ROW USING A 14 STEP MARTY PLAYING BJ"
i like this one
ands think of the comps

or this one
"ODDS OF WINNING 5,589 TIMES IN A ROW USING A 14 STEP MARTY PLAYING BJ"

or this one
"ODDS OF WINNING 16,000 TIMES IN A ROW USING A 14 STEP MARTY PLAYING BJ"

how about time for brunch!