Matchplay- online game martingale

Just wanted to share a story, and have suggestions on how to proceed now.

I put some money on an online website that offered 125% matchplay
I
The matchplay had a wagering requirement of 300x the amount meaning I have to wager $75,000 to be able to do a transfer out of my acount
Since blackjack has a -0.5% (200x) payout I thought it was a good idea to try it out

Since they wager requirement was so high I have done so far a full martingale. I did it because I didn't mind losing if worst came. and wanted to reach the wager limit quickly

I entered $200 and received $250 bonus (Max allowed)
I then started with $450 total ( $200 CASH and $250 BONUS) and I have been lucky and I am now at $1,650 total ( $1,450 CASH and $200 BONUS)
Meaning I wagered $15,000 and haven't crashed out. (Played for three days). My maximum bet has been $480 and luckily I won ( 21 vs 20!)


However I now want to keep as much possible of this money I have two options
From a mathematical point of view both have the same
-0.5% expected return x $60,000 = Expected loss of $300 Meaning win over $1,000)

a) Keep doing a martingale with a limit of 1/8 of my total. Starting at $1
(Meaning if I go up to a $200 wager and lose, call it quits and start a new sequence).

Advantage With this I will get to the wager requirement more quickly
Disadvantage Higher Risk-Variance

b) Playing normal BJ with $25 dollar bets
Advantage- Lower risk-Variance
Disadvantage I have two do 2,400 bets, this means many more hours of play



Note
I am a recreational blackjack player and normally play 8-10 hours a week blackjack usig basic strategy (I don't count). And since the casino I go has promotions, I am actually up this year not down. Meaning I know how to play

I know ths is no a scam casino, since I already did this ( using option (a) ) and went in with $200 and out with $900 (Had a few crashes). Table min $1 Table max $5000

Congrats on the winnings! I would certainly flat bet through the remaining limit were I in your place. With a martingale strategy starting at $1, your average bet will certainly be in the single digits and it will take much longer to play through $60k.

In choosing your unit for flat betting, you may want to consult Wizard's RoR tables. For example, we can set aside your original $200 for a $1450 bankroll. If you bet $50 per hand, you run a 50% chance of wiping your winnings on the way to $60k played. $25 bets, as you suggested, give you closer to a 70% chance of winning some money.

Quote: jpmurga

However I now want to keep as much possible of this money I have two options
From a mathematical point of view both have the same
-0.5% expected return x $60,000 = Expected loss of $300 Meaning win over $1,000)

a) Keep doing a martingale with a limit of 1/8 of my total. Starting at $1
(Meaning if I go up to a $200 wager and lose, call it quits and start a new sequence).

Advantage With this I will get to the wager requirement more quickly
Disadvantage Higher Risk-Variance

b) Playing normal BJ with $25 dollar bets
Advantage- Lower risk-Variance
Disadvantage I have two do 2,400 bets, this means many more hours of play

Table min $1 Table max $5000

If the table maximum is $5000, then why would your flat betting be limited to $25?

To minimize RoR

Hi,

STOP
I've been in that very position and I walked away 6K up
I was lucky but I learned A LOT since. Look out my first post and maybe PM me.
My First Day

Since then I'm older and wiser and can recommend a few tactics to maximise translation into real withdrawable money

I PM you thanks, thats exactly why I posted here wanted advise from people that have been there.
Saw your initial post you were very aggressive, and it paid out. My problem now is that I see the 1,600 as real money, not the original 200 so I am afraid I am playing too conservatily

Now with still the bonus money there, can I consider the 1,600 as real?

Quote: jpmurga

Now with still the bonus money there, can I consider the 1,600 as real?

I believe the saying is, "There is no such thing as 'House Money'." In other words, I would treat it as "real."

If all profits were treated as "free money," then it would be bet until it was lost, and nobody would ever make a profit gambling.

Quote: jpmurga

I PM you thanks, thats exactly why I posted here wanted advise from people that have been there.
Saw your initial post you were very aggressive, and it paid out. My problem now is that I see the 1,600 as real money, not the original 200 so I am afraid I am playing too conservatily

Now with still the bonus money there, can I consider the 1,600 as real?

Depends on betting requirement rules. Mine are, 300x playthrough during which ALL winning go to bonus pot and all wagers come from Real money pot. it's a real b1tsh :)

Trick is to get real money out asap without jeopardizing bonus funds. read rules carefully.

Your 1600 is a long long LONG way away from being withdrawable. If you are lucky, they will release your real money, but dont expect it. Look for opportunities to leverage your bonus balance. You REALLY need to have no emotional attachment to it and need to feel nothing when you slam $$$$ on the table and lose. My first day of BJ pay pretty much bought me a car. I've trickled some of it back over 18 months, but I'm still ahead and back on an uptrend.

Quote: jpmurga

Since they wager requirement was so high I have done so far a full martingale. I did it because I didn't mind losing if worst came. and wanted to reach the wager limit quickly

I would not advocate Marty. Think about it, say you are bobbing around at 1k BR. Sometimes you will be betting small at that level and sometimes you would bet big at a bit less. It's exciting but not good for long survival. Marty also seduces you to think you are invincible as you creep forward.

If you bet a fixed percentage of br, betting constantly in proportion to your current BR, then the good rolls will lurch you closer to meeting WR but the bad runs won't destroy you. You'll get a good chance of longevity alongside manageable potential loss or gain. It won't make you yelp like marty. I'd advocate maybe running at 5%. Remember, you are already likely to be doomed.