Poll

4 votes (12.5%)
8 votes (25%)
20 votes (62.5%)

32 members have voted

RipCovington
RipCovington
Joined: Apr 12, 2015
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April 15th, 2015 at 4:38:40 PM permalink
Wiz, you are an investment banker. You have $100 million in capital to invest.

Would you finance an advantage player if you felt certain that he/she was trustworthy, disciplined, and understood BS, and all forms of counting strategy precisely. What other business would you feel was comparable as far as risk? Real estate, automotive, tech industry?

If you would choose not to invest in the advantage player, could you elaborate as to your rationale?
andysif
andysif
Joined: Aug 8, 2011
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April 15th, 2015 at 6:18:25 PM permalink
No, because there is no growth.
eventually you will get 86'ed.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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April 15th, 2015 at 6:26:58 PM permalink
A strong "no" from me. Card counting blackjack is pretty much dead. Even if I could trust the player completely and he proved his skill, some very big ifs, I'm sure said player would expect his expenses to come out of the bankroll and I'm sure he would want a cut for himself. Mathematically, I don't think it would work, post-expenses.

I've mentioned this before but I invested in a card counting team that underwent skills testing and lie detector tests for honesty and still this team managed to lose money. I'm sure they showed a profit on the game itself but a lot of travel and playing expenses had to come out of the bankroll.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
surrender88s
surrender88s
Joined: Jun 23, 2013
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April 15th, 2015 at 6:43:46 PM permalink
My expected return on $100million would be about $5 to 10million a year, 5-10%. So from a required return perspective:

$5,000,000 divided by 50 weeks a year = $100k weekly EV. Or at 5 days a week, $20k daily.

So on good days, this blackjack person/team would be walking out of the casino some days with 6 figure gains. It's just not possible that at this scale, you could get an acceptable investment return on $100million from blackjack. And if I had $100million, I would probably see managing that wealth as a full time job, and don't think the risk/reward of investing in a blackjack team would make sense at any dollar amount. Paraphrasing Warren Buffett, you're working with an elephant gun at this point, bagging rabbits just doesn't move the needle.

Personally, as a manager of less than $100million, I'd never invest in a team, especially where I'm not playing. The risk of theft is just too big. I'd consider a side-by-side act with a loved one/friend or a call-in type team where every person stakes themselves and share profit. But even then there would be a breakpoint where this wouldn't be a good use of time, maybe above a $2million bankroll/portfolio.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
Dieter
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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April 15th, 2015 at 7:39:32 PM permalink
No, but not hell no.

I'd need to understand the play, ascertain the crew's abilities and integrity, and then contemplate the time frame.

There's absolutely no way I'd bankroll a play at $100M. $200k is really about the total limit, and I'd need to see that they were going in at least equal - so $100k of mine going in.


On the other hand, if you mean "would I operate a casino", sure. The house is an AP that isn't particularly reliant on subjective player skill to make money. I'll take that shot.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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April 15th, 2015 at 9:29:21 PM permalink
Not my style. While Advantage Play is very much a secondary source of (small) income for me, I wouldn't be inclined to invest in a team even if I could make Advantage Play a primary source of revenue.

With very few exceptions, I don't work with people, I either work for people or work alone. I've just never really been great at collaborative efforts, with Administrating Forums (including others) being a notable exception. Forums aren't even really an exception, because there were two (including this one) where I would directly answer to someone, such as Wizard, and one Forum where I was in charge. Generally speaking, I'm usually more comfortable either taking orders or having my orders go unquestioned, (because I'm the only person being ordered) it's just really hard to work with others on an equal footing because an equal footing is never really that and only appears to be so on the surface.
Vultures can't be choosers.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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April 16th, 2015 at 12:17:20 AM permalink
Quote: RipCovington

Wiz, you are an investment banker. You have $100 million in capital to invest.

Would you finance an advantage player if you felt certain that he/she was trustworthy, disciplined, and understood BS, and all forms of counting strategy precisely. What other business would you feel was comparable as far as risk? Real estate, automotive, tech industry?

If you would choose not to invest in the advantage player, could you elaborate as to your rationale?

Pure Card counting in the US probably no.

Other methods absolutely.

Agian If just counting in the US is the main focus, then it's definitely a pass.

If Some incredible games were found outside the USA, I might think seriously about it. That's probably a good investment assuming you trusted everybody involved.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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April 16th, 2015 at 1:52:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've mentioned this before but I invested in a card counting team



Interesting. I missed those other occasions where you mentioned this.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
vendman1
vendman1
Joined: Mar 12, 2012
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April 16th, 2015 at 5:12:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A strong "no" from me. Card counting blackjack is pretty much dead. Even if I could trust the player completely and he proved his skill, some very big ifs, I'm sure said player would expect his expenses to come out of the bankroll and I'm sure he would want a cut for himself. Mathematically, I don't think it would work, post-expenses.

I've mentioned this before but I invested in a card counting team that underwent skills testing and lie detector tests for honesty and still this team managed to lose money. I'm sure they showed a profit on the game itself but a lot of travel and playing expenses had to come out of the bankroll.



Mike I've never heard you mention your investing experience before. I either missed it, or it was before I joined the board. I'm actually considering putting together a team out here in MD. At a much smaller scale. Any advice. Could you share more details. Our plan would be to play locally, so as to avoid many of the travel expenses you speak of. Overhead is the death of many a new business venture. I would imaging a CC team would be no exception.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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April 16th, 2015 at 6:44:47 AM permalink
Quote: vendman1

Mike I've never heard you mention your investing experience before. I either missed it, or it was before I joined the board. I'm actually considering putting together a team out here in MD. At a much smaller scale. Any advice. Could you share more details. Our plan would be to play locally, so as to avoid many of the travel expenses you speak of. Overhead is the death of many a new business venture. I would imaging a CC team would be no exception.



I don't want to hijack the thread. If you were to make a new forum thread about this I'd be happy to contribute.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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