Ace-Five Count So Far....lucky fluke streak or expected?
So I've been relatively new to the AP scene in vegas blackjack, and I've been employing the ace-five count on a variety of fair ruled games in vegas. I've stuck to the S17 perfect basic strategy along with an Ace-Five Count 1-8 Spread, and so far things have been going well. Within the 6 most recent trips to vegas, on an average of 5-6 hours of play per trip (1-2 nights), I've booked about an average of $850 profit per trip, with all 6 trips coming out ahead. I have a tendency to stop play once I'm ahead by a significant amount. Would this be possibly inflating my values? Is the ace-five count sustainable for a casual card counter looking to make a small amount of money? Let me know what you guys think. Thanks!
On the other hand if you actually playing with a slight House Edge, it might have been possible if you just decided to give in when ahead "a bit", to win several sessions without seeing a loss.
Quote: ddrsobaI have a tendency to stop play once I'm ahead by a significant amount. Would this be possibly inflating my values? Is the ace-five count sustainable for a casual card counter looking to make a small amount of money? Let me know what you guys think. Thanks!
Winning and stopping skews your results away from the play-all expectation, and even from the "leave the game when the count drops" expectation. Sure, you're leaving the game with money, but you might be leaving money on the table. If you're OK with that, good for you.
I think that if you're going to spread that much - even on a $3 table - you should look at a stronger count. KO or REKO is not harder (you keep track of more cards, but what you're doing is still just adding and subtracting 1), but the results should be much better.
If you're playing shoe games, you might buy a shoe and a few decks of cards (and chips! you gonna need chips.) for the house to practice. I found this to be quite helpful - I would deal to various friends and family trying to learn BS, while keeping track of the appropriate BS play (and mild coaching, like "you know that's not in the book, right?"), 3-8 hands and their totals, following dealer drawing rules (they caught me drawing on S18 - but I only made that mistake once, early on), cutting chips, making change, making all the advisory calls (so the learners would get used to what happens in a live game)... all while trying to keep a running count.
Quote: ddrsobaHi Guys,
So I've been relatively new to the AP scene in vegas blackjack, and I've been employing the ace-five count on a variety of fair ruled games in vegas. I've stuck to the S17 perfect basic strategy along with an Ace-Five Count 1-8 Spread, and so far things have been going well. Within the 6 most recent trips to vegas, on an average of 5-6 hours of play per trip (1-2 nights), I've booked about an average of $850 profit per trip, with all 6 trips coming out ahead. I have a tendency to stop play once I'm ahead by a significant amount. Would this be possibly inflating my values? Is the ace-five count sustainable for a casual card counter looking to make a small amount of money? Let me know what you guys think. Thanks!
Hi ddrsoba, and welcome to the forums.
I'm quite glad to see another person taking on advantage gaming; it's really not all that hard to do, now is it? =) So let's get to your post/questions at hand. It's definitely good that you're sticking to the better games as the house edge will effect your expected value (EV) unless you're adjusting your spread per game. Basically, there are 2 things that stick out from your post for me:
1) You play 5-6 hours and have been up on average $850 profit each trip. What are your betting limits? If you're playing S17 on the strip, I'm assuming you're playing a $25-$200 spread? If this is the case then your results are definitely higher than expected. In 5-6 hours, getting a decent 80 hands per hour, you're only getting about 400-480 hands on your whole trip. This is really the definition of "short term" :p.
I ran a quick SIM with my excel sheets... Spreading $25-$200 max bet out at TC +5, playing a .4% HE game... This results in an average $22.89/hour, and a Gain Per Hand of .27. So what does this mean? This means using HI/LOW (which will earn about double what your A-five count earns) in 5-6 hours I could expect to make $114.90 - 137.34. So our first metric shows you're exceedingly above that mark (and remember you should be earning about half of the hi/low to boot). Next, let's look at Gain Per Hand. In 5-6 hours getting an average 80 hands per hour you're playing 400-480 hands... Multiplying this out you should earn around: $108 - $129.60. I hope you can see how closely these are correlated. I'll also again point out this is for Hi/Low, which is much more powerful than Ace-five. So our second metric shows you're wayyyy above the mark as well.
2) You said you're stopping play once you're ahead a 'significant' amount. What's a significant amount? Also, this is a sin to real card counters... As a real counter understands that you're always playing for the long run. That's where the money is in card counting, the long run. This is where you've played SO MANY hands that variance doesn't affect you anymore and you WILL be up $X at a minimum. Thus, the point of card counting is to play hands... The more the better, because you'll get to the long run faster. When you cut short your sessions you're really just slowing your goal of getting to the long run. Short term results can be VERY streaky and all over the place. You could just as well be down $5k instead of up $5k. If you were down $5k would you also stop? I wouldn't... So long as I was playing a winning game I'd understand it's just a fluctuation and that I need to get more hands to get closer to the long run where variance would not affect me.
Now, this is good news! Players often find themselves on the poor end of variance, so it's nice to see someone who's playing correctly and ALSO getting lucky... but do understand that your results are in fact way above expectations. I'll also note, if you're playing anything less than $25 min, you're getting astronomically lucky and you should play the lottery lol. If you're playing above (so like $50 min) then you're still above expectation, but instead of being 10x outside it you might only be 3-4x outside it. My recommendation is to keep doing what you're doing, but take it with a grain of salt. 6 winning trips in a row is a pretty good sign you're running well. I don't want to sound like a debbie downer, but it will come to an end, and I just want you to be prepared for the swings you can take the other direction as well. The game is always easiest when you're winning, but real players/counters/AP's shine through the most with how they handle the game when they're losing.
If you want more info on how I did these calculations, or counting in general, please check out my A-Z Counting Cards in Blackjack thread. At a minimum this will give you the tools to calculate your own Expected Values and to be able to answer your own question you posted =). I hope you have continued good variance!
You ever seen that Key and Peele episode where they are plotting to rob a bank?
"We go to work there, and then they start depositing money into our account...After 20-years, we walk free and clear out the door with hundreds of thousands of dollars.."
"M+%*f#!$%er, that's called a job!!"
Sure, play the long run. Spend the rest of your natural life hunched over a table hoping you don't get backed off, grinding out a 1% advantage. And if you go down huge due to variance, the future cards will remember this, as the magical Blackjack Gods are keeping running total, and they will pay it off eventually, b/c they like math problems. Ha ha! :)
FWIW, I think you are doing it exactly right. Go in, get your paper, and get out. Wager what you are comfortable with, leave with that paper.
The money in your pocket is real. It is legal, certified tender. Spend it, or save it.
When you go back the next time, the cards do not know, do not care. They will start fresh, just as if you opened up a strategy trainer.
Quote: RipCovingtonWell, here's where I go full contrarian.
You ever seen that Key and Peele episode where they are plotting to rob a bank?
"We go to work there, and then they start depositing money into our account...After 20-years, we walk free and clear out the door with hundreds of thousands of dollars.."
"M+%*f#!$%er, that's called a job!!"
Counting cards properly is a job... But it can be a very lucrative job to those whom otherwise wouldn't be able to make $30-$100/hour.
Quote: RipCovingtonSure, play the long run. Spend the rest of your natural life hunched over a table hoping you don't get backed off, grinding out a 1% advantage. And if you go down huge due to variance, the future cards will remember this, as the magical Blackjack Gods are keeping running total, and they will pay it off eventually, b/c they like math problems. Ha ha! :)
There are no blackjack Gods, just math =). And it's also not theory, or superstition, or black magic. Tons of members on this site alone can run simulations to prove the math converges to a certain point. Even in my own past posting I show how after X hands you are guaranteed to be up Y with a standard deviation of Z. That's 100% proven math that has nothing to do with voodoo, blackjack Gods, etc.
Oh, and I'll be sure to enjoy being 'hunched over a table' on my completely comped trip to Vegas next month ;). Sucks to be me!
Quote: RipCovingtonFWIW, I think you are doing it exactly right. Go in, get your paper, and get out. Wager what you are comfortable with, leave with that paper.
The money in your pocket is real. It is legal, certified tender. Spend it, or save it.
Sounds like a pit boss encouraging a patron to double that 4-4 to a dealer 4! Sure, if it works once, WHY NOT do it every time?!?!
Quote: RipCovingtonWhen you go back the next time, the cards do not know, do not care. They will start fresh, just as if you opened up a strategy trainer.
Oh, but the math does care. The math certainly cares, otherwise why wouldn't we see random people whom don't count win 100 sessions in a row and become millionaires? Why don't we ever see that? Why do we always see casinos making profits from gamblers? Do you think the casinos pay off the "blackjack Gods?" lol, they rely on the math too... and that's just another example of the proof behind the math. =)
Romes, let's live in the real world. As you know there are risk analysts in the insurance and investment banking world. Their whole reason for existing is to make decisions on income potential.
You have some unshakeable math behind you. I don't dispute that.
Why not just go into your nearest investment banker, simply whip out your spread sheets, and say, "As you can see, the math doesn't lie. This business will pay out eventually. We simply need a large enough bankroll to ride out some expected fluctuation, as we can't afford to run out of funds just when the getting is good. Therefore, I am going to need an unlimited line of credit to combat the deep house pockets."
Are they going to give you the credit line? Me thinks not. Would your family members, or your rich Aunt Edna give you the cash? Meh..
Would you right now open up your bank account to the Wizard, ALL OF IT, to fund his counting? Me thinks not.
Let's look at it another way.
Let's say you, me, and the Wizard all met up in the Bellagio high limit room. All of us have been playing perfect strategy, and counting perfectly and spreading bets perfectly for the last two months.
Me, I've been breaking even.
The Wizard is on fire. He has won over $200,000 in the last two months.
Unfortunately, you, Romes, have been getting it handed it to you, and are down $85,000.
All three of us belly up to the double deck table, in any particular order, we know that doesn't matter, right?
All of us are going to continue to play flawless strategy, and spread bets accordingly.
Which one of us is most likely to win?
Is the correct answer, that it doesn't really matter, all three of us have exactly the same odds going in as we are going to play the same. That $85,000 you are down. Not a factor, right. Any more than the roulette ball is "due" to land on red after 20-blacks in a row.
Quote: RomesCounting cards properly is a job... But it can be a very lucrative job to those whom otherwise wouldn't be able to make $30-$100/hour.
There are no blackjack Gods, just math =). And it's also not theory, or superstition, or black magic. Tons of members on this site alone can run simulations to prove the math converges to a certain point. Even in my own past posting I show how after X hands you are guaranteed to be up Y with a standard deviation of Z. That's 100% proven math that has nothing to do with voodoo, blackjack Gods, etc.
Oh, and I'll be sure to enjoy being 'hunched over a table' on my completely comped trip to Vegas next month ;). Sucks to be me!
Sounds like a pit boss encouraging a patron to double that 4-4 to a dealer 4! Sure, if it works once, WHY NOT do it every time?!?!
Oh, but the math does care. The math certainly cares, otherwise why wouldn't we see random people whom don't count win 100 sessions in a row and become millionaires? Why don't we ever see that? Why do we always see casinos making profits from gamblers? Do you think the casinos pay off the "blackjack Gods?" lol, they rely on the math too... and that's just another example of the proof behind the math. =)
Pt. 2: Since the mathematical evidence is overwhelming, (the math does care?), any reason that you are still taking trips to Vegas, and haven't moved there to better take advantage of the increased amount of time playing an advantage game. If you take a trip, let's say over a three day weekend, you might gamble 24-hours total. Why not move there, and make it a real job, work it 40-hour a week, every week, playing your mathematical advantage game? You are leaving so much money on the table by limiting your exposure, yes?
You are clearly a very, very bright person. So why would you not take advantage of this 100% proven math, and really, really take advantage of it. Maybe you have another job, OK, sure. Even a 6-month leave of absence, with non-stop BJ at 50-hours a week would seem to make you a lifetime of money.
Because its easy to talk about it rather than do it. It's easy dreaming about the possibilities. People always look back and say, if only I had x amount of money to play with, I would do this or that.Quote: RipCovingtonPt. 2: Since the mathematical evidence is overwhelming, (the math does care?), any reason that you are still taking trips to Vegas, and haven't moved there to better take advantage of the increased amount of time playing an advantage game. If you take a trip, let's say over a three day weekend, you might gamble 24-hours total. Why not move there, and make it a real job, work it 40-hour a week, every week, playing your mathematical advantage game? You are leaving so much money on the table by limiting your exposure, yes?
You are clearly a very, very bright person. So why would you not take advantage of this 100% proven math, and really, really take advantage of it. Maybe you have another job, OK, sure. Even a 6-month leave of absence, with non-stop BJ at 50-hours a week would seem to make you a lifetime of money.
,
Then once someone actually has a BR big enough to play at a significant hourly rate, They start rethinking, WTF AM I THINKING . They know dam well they could lose their ass and they back out.
There's been countless times I have heard people talk about past plays.... saying, they wish they knew about a promotion or some good play, and how they would do this or that. Then the same or better opportunity comes up again. They have a ton of excuses.
It's easy to be a weekend warrior having the comfort of a job if you lose your BR.
Quote: RipCovingtonPt. 2: Since the mathematical evidence is overwhelming, (the math does care?), any reason that you are still taking trips to Vegas, and haven't moved there to better take advantage of the increased amount of time playing an advantage game. If you take a trip, let's say over a three day weekend, you might gamble 24-hours total. Why not move there, and make it a real job, work it 40-hour a week, every week, playing your mathematical advantage game? You are leaving so much money on the table by limiting your exposure, yes?
You are clearly a very, very bright person. So why would you not take advantage of this 100% proven math, and really, really take advantage of it. Maybe you have another job, OK, sure. Even a 6-month leave of absence, with non-stop BJ at 50-hours a week would seem to make you a lifetime of money.
This is interesting. It's inspiring me. I might just move to Vegas and make a living playing blackjack. Oh wait...I did that 6 years ago. :/
I am not sure what your point of all this is RipCovington? I guess your attempting to say that no one can make a living playing blackjack??
For the record: Traditional 40 or 50 hour work weeks don't exist for professional blackjack players or APs. It just doesn't work like that. In addition your analogy of the investment banker income analyst, just show your complete lack of understanding of our profession. The skill set to be a successful card counter is more about personal traits, discipline, the ability to mentally handle the swings and less about the math.
Oh, and I have gotten 2 different mortgages based on my income potential from card counting, so that throws wrench into your little theory about the bankers.
I am not really here to convince you of anything. If you want to think that because you don't understand something that it can't be done, that's fine. It actually works out better for me that way. :) Don't sail off the edge of the earth my friend. :)
Quote: AxelWolfBecause its easy to talk about it rather than do it. It's easy dreaming about the possibilities. People always look back and say, if only I had x amount of money to play with, I would do this or that.
,
Then once someone actually has a BR big enough to play at a significant hourly rate, They start rethinking, WTF AM I THINKING . They know dam well they could lose their ass and they back out.
There's been countless times I have heard people talk about past plays.... saying, they wish they knew about a promotion or some good play, and how they would do this or that. Then the same or better opportunity comes up again. They have a ton of excuses.
It's easy to be a weekend warrior having the comfort of a job if you lose your BR.
This. So much this. 100% agree, Axel.
B/c you know darn well, counting, spreadsheets, unshakeable math, or no, that the risk is still enormous. You know, hand by hand, each one, there is a chance that money is going away. Intuitively, you already know that concepts like infinity may not right themselves in your lifetime.
It's one thing to live in theory off theoretical expectations, and spreadsheets, it's quite another to do it at the table with an amount of money that is significant TO YOU. Which is why I say the OP is getting this about right. He is winning, and he is leaving with money.
Quote: kewljThis is interesting. It's inspiring me. I might just move to Vegas and make a living playing blackjack. Oh wait...I did that 6 years ago. :/
I am not sure what your point of all this is RipCovington? I guess your attempting to say that no one can make a living playing blackjack??
For the record: Traditional 40 or 50 hour work weeks don't exist for professional blackjack players or APs. It just doesn't work like that. In addition your analogy of the investment banker income analyst, just show your complete lack of understanding of our profession. The skill set to be a successful card counter is more about personal traits, discipline, the ability to mentally handle the swings and less about the math.
Oh, and I have gotten 2 different mortgages based on my income potential from card counting, so that throws wrench into your little theory about the bankers.
I am not really here to convince you of anything. If you want to think that because you don't understand something that it can't be done, that's fine. It actually works out better for me that way. :) Don't sail off the edge of the earth my friend. :)
Congratulations on your successful card counting endeavors, and mortgages. You are perhaps misunderstanding my point.
Did you get the mortgages off already accumulated demonstrable income, or theoretical future play? i.e., did you walk in with statistical analysis of a 1-8 spread, and based on that alone receive a home loan?
Why did you get a morgage to begin with? Why didn't you just go roll a casino or two, and pay cash for your house?
Yes, I believe that a few may make a living at blackjack, and if you are one, then congratulations for that. I also think people can make a living at being a jockey, a rapper, an NBA player, and an MMA fighter. With a specific skill set and unique personal qualities, in this case, a tight mathematical mind, and a high tolerance for variance, and tedium, sure, it can be done.
My guess is that you could have made money in any number of fields, and if this is the one that you have chosen, and it's working out for you, then
1. Math does care. It remembers from shoe to shoe, and it cares. Deeply.
2. Bankers like to loan money to gamblers.
3. It is not possible to EV gamble 40-hours a week in Vegas. (Really? I'm thinking 2-3, 3-hr. sessions spread over 3-4 casinos daily. But then again, "I have a complete lack of understanding of YOUR profession". I know, what hubris on my part.)
FWIW, I've gone 9-for-10 the last two months, using my Rip Covington wild ass gambler strategy. My banker likes me a lot. My dealers like me a lot, probably b/c I'm tipping them, and not freaking out wringing my hands stressing about "giving back the edge.."
Now, NOW, I'm making friends in here!
Quote: RipCovingtonYou are perhaps misunderstanding my point.
Why did you get a morgage to begin with? Why didn't you just go roll a casino or two, and pay cash for your house?
You are correct. I do not understand your point. You questioned why Romes "traveled" to Las Vegas periodically, rather than move here, as if suggesting this was some kind of proof that one can not make a living playing blackjack. You didn't exactly say that, but that's what it seemed you were getting at....because he doesn't live in Vegas, he is not making a living playing blackjack.
Now, I don't know Romes, other than through the site. I don't know if he plays professionally or not. I'll leave that for him to say or not say. But I can tell you that I know a number of players that play for a living, some that live here, as I do, some that are based elsewhere and travel to Vegas and other locations periodically.
Answer to your second question: I have gotten two mortgages here in Vegas, One when I moved here in 2009 to a condo a block off the strip because I didn't have the funds to purchase the property outright. Isn't that why most people get a mortgage?
My second mortgage 2 years ago for a single home, I probably could have paid cash, but that would have left me with minimal cash on hand. A requirement for a professional blackjack player is a significant bankroll, so tying up all my cash would not work. Again, I think not wanting to tie up all one's assets is another pretty common reason for taking a mortgage, so your question seems odd to me.
But your follow up statement about "just go roll into a casino or two and make money to pay for your house" shows a complete misunderstanding of what being a professional blackjack player or AP really is. No one, at least no one here said it is a get rich quick thing, or in the case of card counting a get rich at all thing. Far from it. I think Romes said it's a job and that's all it really is.....a non traditional job.
Quote: RipCovingtonI'm learning a lot here:
1. Math does care. It remembers from shoe to shoe, and it cares. Deeply.
2. Bankers like to loan money to gamblers.
3. It is not possible to EV gamble 40-hours a week in Vegas. (Really? I'm thinking 2-3, 3-hr. sessions spread over 3-4 casinos daily. But then again, "I have a complete lack of understanding of YOUR profession". I know, what hubris on my part.)
FWIW, I've gone 9-for-10 the last two months, using my Rip Covington wild ass gambler strategy. My banker likes me a lot. My dealers like me a lot, probably b/c I'm tipping them, and not freaking out wringing my hands stressing about "giving back the edge.."
Now, NOW, I'm making friends in here!
Ok, now I see it. Now I understand my confusion. My mistake for taking you seriously.
Quote: kewljOk, now I see it. Now I understand my confusion. My mistake for taking you seriously.
Ha...OK, apologies, kewlj, I veered into ridiculosity, it's a flaw.
OK, my points are thus, and I am going to play this straight down the line.
1. Gambling is volatile. Yes, you may do everything exactly perfectly, and still lose, and lose big. The math is based on infinite trials, and real life may take a while to catch up. Hence the investment analogy. At some point, real estate in Detroit may become highly sought after. But you and your banker may well be dead by that time.
2a). The point to Romes was that despite the bulletproof math that card counting provides a slight advantage over the house, the real world variance and volatility prevents most from really making a living at it. You say that you do, and I believe you, would you concur that you are in the distinct minority, as most will get run down by variance, boredom, and frustration.
2b). Further, I find it unlikely that a banker will invest in your counting cards business. If they see that you are earning, they may give you a mortgage, but they will have the house as collateral. You misrepresented my point on this, that b/c you got a mortgage, that "blows my original theory out of the water." That wasn't my original theory at all.
They can take back the house if you can't pay the bill, but are they going to loan you money explicitly to fund your gambling business? They might, and in which case, why would you not get some backing, and really start swinging for the fences. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but that was my original point, not whether you can get a mortgage. Especially in the struggling real estate market that is Las Vegas. Different deal, housing loan vs. fund my card counting business loan.
3. Gambling hours: If you are trying to approach the statistical mean that will present itself over time, then it seems that more time, rather than less, would drive you towards that inevitable 1% advantage. Much like a casino wants to deal more hands in an hour to get more expected return, you as an advantage player, should be playing all day every day, as much as possible while staying sharp, to get your expected advantage.
Do you think that the OP is trying to make this a career? I did not get that vibe, so my thoughts are that he/she is doing great, using some counting principles along with good BS, and making some money.
And that's where the gambler that has chosen to make his living crunching BJ hands might look at it differently then a dude looking to enhance his gambling at the casino, and leave with some paper.
FWIW, Me going 9/10 the last two months, and making my banker very happy. Yes. True.
Here's my objective: One major run. And it's over. Gambling is fun, but even winning gets boring after a while. One big run. The short play, kewlji.
Listen, if you love it, if you love the math, and the game, and the smoke, and hanging out with gamblers, the vibe. Then the years are a good trade.
Quote: RipCovingtonHa...OK, apologies, kewlj, I veered into ridiculosity, it's a flaw.
OK, my points are thus, and I am going to play this straight down the line.
1. Gambling is volatile. Yes, you may do everything exactly perfectly, and still lose, and lose big. The math is based on infinite trials, and real life may take a while to catch up. Hence the investment analogy. At some point, real estate in Detroit may become highly sought after. But you and your banker may well be dead by that time.
2a). The point to Romes was that despite the bulletproof math that card counting provides a slight advantage over the house, the real world variance and volatility prevents most from really making a living at it. You say that you do, and I believe you, would you concur that you are in the distinct minority, as most will get run down by variance, boredom, and frustration.
2b). Further, I find it unlikely that a banker will invest in your counting cards business. If they see that you are earning, they may give you a mortgage, but they will have the house as collateral. You misrepresented my point on this, that b/c you got a mortgage, that "blows my original theory out of the water." That wasn't my original theory at all.
They can take back the house if you can't pay the bill, but are they going to loan you money explicitly to fund your gambling business? They might, and in which case, why would you not get some backing, and really start swinging for the fences. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but that was my original point, not whether you can get a mortgage. Especially in the struggling real estate market that is Las Vegas. Different deal, housing loan vs. fund my card counting business loan.
3. Gambling hours: If you are trying to approach the statistical mean that will present itself over time, then it seems that more time, rather than less, would drive you towards that inevitable 1% advantage. Much like a casino wants to deal more hands in an hour to get more expected return, you as an advantage player, should be playing all day every day, as much as possible while staying sharp, to get your expected advantage.
Yes, I think it is fair to say many get run down by variance, boredom and frustration. Many go on to other things, a few into more advanced things in the AP world, some into business of a completely different kind. Most that have the ability to have success at any form of AP, even lowly card counting, have the ability to be successful at almost anything. And most (not myself) have other opportunities available to them. They have degrees and/or came from a decent paying career and the financial limitations involved with card counting make it no longer attractive to them. They have better opportunities elsewhere.
A couple other things that I want to comment on. While it would be highly unlikely for a bank or tradition lending source to finance one's AP venture, it is fairly common for AP's to have investors or others bankrolling their activities. Many of the big teams are structured this way. It is also not uncommon for AP's to join forces and bankroll or invest in other AP's, sometimes for a short-term specific opportunity, sometimes a longer term arrangement.
Lastly, you mention that the math is based on infinite trails and it may take a while to catch up. I think a lot of people misunderstand this concept. Yes there is variance and you can and will under-perform for significant periods of time. That is the nature of the business. But those significant periods of time are measured in months maybe a year or two at most. I've experienced 6 month losing periods several times in my now 13 year career. You weren't around last year, but I posted about my results that were significantly below expectation for the year after several above expectation years. The idea of extreme variance lasting for infinite trials or even a really large amount of trials, like years and years, isn't going to happen....not if you are REALLY playing with an advantage.
People get confused because the really large number of trials that is talked about (years up to a lifetime) are what it takes to have your results come in very, very close to expectation, like decimal points close. Not what it takes to insure showing a profit. That is a much lower number.
Quote: kewljYes, I think it is fair to say many get run down by variance, boredom and frustration. Many go on to other things, a few into more advanced things in the AP world, some into business of a completely different kind. Most that have the ability to have success at any form of AP, even lowly card counting, have the ability to be successful at almost anything. And most (not myself) have other opportunities available to them. They have degrees and/or came from a decent paying career and the financial limitations involved with card counting make it no longer attractive to them. They have better opportunities elsewhere.
A couple other things that I want to comment on. While it would be highly unlikely for a bank or tradition lending source to finance one's AP venture, it is fairly common for AP's to have investors or others bankrolling their activities. Many of the big teams are structured this way. It is also not uncommon for AP's to join forces and bankroll or invest in other AP's, sometimes for a short-term specific opportunity, sometimes a longer term arrangement.
Lastly, you mention that the math is based on infinite trails and it may take a while to catch up. I think a lot of people misunderstand this concept. Yes there is variance and you can and will under-perform for significant periods of time. That is the nature of the business. But those significant periods of time are measured in months maybe a year or two at most. I've experienced 6 month losing periods several times in my now 13 year career. You weren't around last year, but I posted about my results that were significantly below expectation for the year after several above expectation years. The idea of extreme variance lasting for infinite trials or even a really large amount of trials, like years and years, isn't going to happen....not if you are REALLY playing with an advantage.
People get confused because the really large number of trials that is talked about (years up to a lifetime) are what it takes to have your results come in very, very close to expectation, like decimal points close. Not what it takes to insure showing a profit. That is a much lower number.
OK, thank you for that. I appreciate the thoughtful response, and if you are game for a bit more discussion, I will try to expound a bit, again on a straightforward, good faith level here.
Do you have a theory as to why traditional banks would be reluctant to go in on card counting as an investment? If you have documented 1% advantage, is it still gambling? Pretty sure they have no problem backing casinos, ha ha...(I know this is not fair comparison due to the many other games where their house advantage is far greater...Just saying, banks will most certainly involve themselves in gambling.)
Is it b/c it is still a pretty unstable venture, is it not?
Now we know that all investment is a risk. You might go in on a condo in Vegas just as the economy tanks, and end up down a significant amount of money. So there are riskier investments, "sub-prime" if you will, that banks will shy away from, although they did manage to tank the entire economy with their own casino game of credit default swaps, and subprime lending in '07, '08. But I digress.
We have a mathematically proven 1% advantage over the house with the spread sheets to prove it, yes? Since bankers are truly some of the most soul deadened human beings to grace the Earth, they have zero F's to give about anything other than how can they get more money, and why does the pesky government keep interfering with these goals...why wouldn't they want to come in on the play?
I guess my overriding theme behind all these questions, and contrarian statements, is that the actions of advantage gamblers does not seem to TRULY match the assured tone of "We have an advantage." Or, "I trust the math to even it all out, most definitely." Present company excepted, kewlji, as you did take the plunge, and it is working out, so as mentioned before, kudos!
If a business is thriving, and apparently you have shown a profit for 6-years running, enough to buy a couple of houses, and I suppose put your kids in private school, and vacation in Europe once a year, etc...but if a business is thriving, we can usually expect to see a few things:
1. Attempt to expand, or grow the business.
2. Maximize the time of "earning", either by moving to the business location, (which you did, and why I asked Rome the same thing), or increasing the "hours available".
3. Financing the growth through other people's money, which is kind of a central entrepreneurial strategy.
4. Diversify. i.e. start an odds website, (ahem) or write a book, etc.
Problem is, it still comes down to sitting there at a table hoping you are about to get a picture. It's still gambling. The bottom could still drop out...well apparently for 6-months at least.
Just as an aside, and not to muddy the waters, but a few years back, I saw a news show demonstrating congruent actions along these lines about a dude in Vegas who moves sports books all by himself. He was on like Dateline, or 60-Minutes, or something.
Quote: RipCovingtonDo you have a theory as to why traditional banks would be reluctant to go in on card counting as an investment? If you have documented 1% advantage, is it still gambling? Pretty sure they have no problem backing casinos, ha ha...(I know this is not fair comparison due to the many other games where their house advantage is far greater...Just saying, banks will most certainly involve themselves in gambling.)
A handful of lenders have policies where they simply don't finance "gambling" (and certain other vices) as the core business. (This one comes to mind, but there are surely others https://www.ondeck.com/restricted-industries/ )
The saying I've heard - repeatedly - is "They don't build casinos on credit".
Aside from possible moral problems, and once you have a solid AP business plan worked out along with a proven set of skills to execute that plan, it comes down to rate of return / risk of ruin - can you make enough money fast enough to pay your loan, your expenses, and yourself, and can you do it long enough to at least get your loan paid off.
With a secured loan, there's at least something for them to repossess if you screw up. That second mortgage, rolling a car loan for cash back, a traditional business loan where there may be capital equipment or inventory... much easier for them to approve. When your stock in trade is cash, and it's gone, there just isn't a whole lot for them to come looking to take back.
To back up just quickly, I've mentioned on the forums prior that I'm a senior developer... and that I'm a red/light greens player. Thus, the money I'd make from blackjack would rival the money I'm making currently and therefor not worth the effort. I have friends, family, love interests, etc right where I'm at. Those too have to be taken in to account when moving states to go live in Vegas to go "full time pro." I'm very willing right now to state openly I believe I could make a full time living, and a good full time living (~$100k/year), if I did move to Vegas. However, this would only be slightly more than I'm already making now and I would be giving up family/friends/my current life to do so. This decision is different for everyone and where they're at in their lives. So for me, where I'm at, the decision to move to Vegas and go full time is not one that I'm willing to entertain at this point. Will that change down the road? Probably not, but never say never =).
I just hope you can understand there's a LOT more that goes in to a life decision like this than "I can prove the math on my spreadsheets!" As I've already said and kewlj also stated, we understand that it IS a job. In my A-Z Card Counting thread one of the biggest points I make is this is not a get rich quick scheme. It's a job. A job that can be alienating, and frustrating. If nothing else I suggest you look at just the bottom section of my opening post in that thread to understand a bit more about why I do it, what I get out of it (a lot more than just money), and what I've learned from it...
Quote: RipCovington...
1. Attempt to expand, or grow the business.
2. Maximize the time of "earning", either by moving to the business location, (which you did, and why I asked Rome the same thing), or increasing the "hours available".
3. Financing the growth through other people's money, which is kind of a central entrepreneurial strategy.
4. Diversify. i.e. start an odds website, (ahem) or write a book, etc.
...
1) There's a limit when card counting because often time people will over expose themselves and then get backed off from every good game in town. This might take years to get backed off from place to place to place, but if this is your profession, you don't really want to plan to have to figure your life out again in 5-10 years. Longevity is one of the most important things and one of the most touched on things kewlj often refers to (and for him clearly understanding facts like this shows me he is the real deal and drives a great amount of my respect for him). You can't have longevity in the game if you're ALWAYS expanding. It's a game offered by casinos and as private businesses they have the right to ask you not to play. This is part of the profession you either didn't know about or don't understand. It's another variable that has to be accounted for. Thus, you find your levels you're happy with, yes perhaps with some growth, but why go for a $300k year 1 year and get burned out when you could have 20 years of $100k? Doesn't sound like a smart financial decision to go for the 'big score' to me =p.
2) This is already answered... Kewlj did, and I stated my reasons above (and in that other thread) on why I don't. There's a lot of factors that go in to ANY life decision about a new career/moving/etc, blackjack or not. I don't think you put all of these factors in to this decision for AP's.
3) As Kewlj already pointed out, AP's quite often pool their money and invest in one another. I have a partner. We both put in 50% of the money and take 50% of the returns; we are investing in each other. Also, go watch the free documentary on netflix of the "church team" that runs blackjackapprenticeship.com. It's called Holly Rollers. They discuss how they had outside investors fund their bankroll. This absolutely happens all the time.
Another reason some people DON'T take investors is they know that with overhead, giving a cut to the investors for all the hard work they do limits their profits. My partner and I are happy where we're at, with our growth, and don't even want investors at this time. Perhaps later down the road if we wanted to 'expand' then we would look at that option when the time was right to. I again hope you see the financial decisions being made here are quite informed and educated I can assure you. So when you say "why not go get a loan for a million dollars and win win win?!?!" it clearly shows you don't understand the profession at all.
To touch on the loan idea a tad bit more... Just like investing in other AP's, there's a LOT of trust involved. What's to stop an AP from taking a trip, winning $10k, and then coming back to you and reporting (happily) that they won $7k??? You'd be happy with the win and never know the difference (unless you keep good records, then you'd 'eventually' figure it out). There is again risk/reward here that has NOTHING to do with the spreadsheets or proven advantages. Perhaps the bank just doesn't want to invest in someone whom could easily miss-report winnings, losses, etc. This is why I don't personally invest in other outside teams/AP's. I simply don't trust them.
4) Many AP's do diversify. They start with counting, then add hole carding, then add side bets, promotions, video poker vulturing, progressives, etc, etc. There's a ton of different AP plays that a lot of real AP's do. Kewlj, in his update on his year, states about 20% of his income comes from other plays other than blackjack. To anyone who's serious about being an AP, you don't just count cards. If you're an advantage player, you look for everything and anything you can get an advantage on (and I'm intentionally not mentioning 2-3 other things my partner and I do because I don't want to share them).
Also, as stated previously, I have a full time job. Being an AP on the side IS me diversifying my income/interests/etc. Using this I have multiple revenue streams in which I've used to also buy a car, house, go on trips, etc, etc. This again just shows that you don't realize a lot of AP's have other things going on in their lives as well and card counting isn't the most centralized thing that everyone should just get a loan and become a millionaire in.
You do seem like you have a lot of good questions, but I hope you can see from the responses you've gotten that you clearly do not understand the profession.
Back to the OP, the reason I gave him the advice I did was to help him make informed decisions in the future by showing him just where his results fell in respect with expected value, etc... but then again, that was just math talk ;).
