What are the odds of losing 22/25 hands

I always knew this was in the realm of probabilities and I thought through hundreds of sessions in brick and mortar as well as online sims that I'd seen everything and nothing would shock me anymore. Last weekend, however, I LITERALLY lost 22 of 25 hands at one point after being up and down and around even for most of the night, destroying any possible chance of coming back on top. I was mostly flat-betting, but that streak included some of the strongest double-downs such as 10 and 11 vs 6, so there went 25 units during that run.

The game wasn't even that bad. 6d in the one2six continuous shuffler, 3:2, DA2, DAS, SP4 except A's and S17, better than most games in the country(for recreational players). I went 1-22-2 during that stretch. This is not a typo. How rare is this situation? Should I expect to never see it again in my life, assuming I play 3 sessions of 2-6 hours in length each month for the next 20 years, under the same conditions (or to an H17 game which is the farthest I'd go)?

Quote: RedJack

I always knew this was in the realm of probabilities and I thought through hundreds of sessions in brick and mortar as well as online sims that I'd seen everything and nothing would shock me anymore. Last weekend, however, I LITERALLY lost 22 of 25 hands at one point after being up and down and around even for most of the night, destroying any possible chance of coming back on top. I was mostly flat-betting, but that streak included some of the strongest double-downs such as 10 and 11 vs 6, so there went 25 units during that run.

The game wasn't even that bad. 6d in the one2six continuous shuffler, 3:2, DA2, DAS, SP4 except A's and S17, better than most games in the country(for recreational players). I went 1-22-2 during that stretch. This is not a typo. How rare is this situation? Should I expect to never see it again in my life, assuming I play 3 sessions of 2-6 hours in length each month for the next 20 years, under the same conditions (or to an H17 game which is the farthest I'd go)?

It's about 12,000 to 1 to lose at least 22 of 25 hands in blackjack -- not counting ties.

So for simplicity, I should be expecting to see it again, on average, every 300000 non-push hands (12000*25)?

If the calculation is simple as that I guess chances are I probably won't see it much if at all for the rest of my life.

Not quite, because it's always rolling forward. The chances of the next 25 non push hand having at least 22 losses are about 12,000 to 1.

So say you win the first four hands, you're not "safe" for the next 21 hands. The chances of losing at least 22 of the next 25 non-push hands immediately are 12,000 to 1.

True, lol, this is a prime example of people seeing what they want to see. Since I was hoping for some sort of reassurance that it's extremely unlikely to happen, I did not think it through before jumping the gun.

Quote: sodawater

Not quite, because it's always rolling forward. The chances of the next 25 non push hand having at least 22 losses are about 12,000 to 1.

So say you win the first four hands, you're not "safe" for the next 21 hands. The chances of losing at least 22 of the next 25 non-push hands immediately are 12,000 to 1.

off topic coz i can't make a new post of new topic.
What is the extra edge of rider option 1:50, DAS & no DAS respectively ??
thx

lost 22 units or even worse out of 25 hands, flat bet 1 unit/hand
occur less than 0.01%, by CVCX cal.
i am curious to know what is the immedaite result after losing 22 hands ?

thx

I calculated it this way.

For a 25 hand cycle of blackjack with a mean of 11.9725 losses (25 x 0.4789) I look to a POISSON table and find that the odds of losing 22 hands or more out of 25 hands is 0.2965%. The odds of losing exactly 22 hands is 0.1535%. I'm sure someone on more solid mathematical ground will find reason to critique this, but the upshot is that while it's a very long longshot to lose 22 or more hands out of 25 hands when you play long enough you'll see it happen.

When I'm playing, once per day minimum.

My record of losses in a row is 20, previous was 15. That is quite a jump. Record wins in a row is 14 or 15, can't remember. I do remember winning 13, losing 1, and winning next 12, that's winning 25 of 26 hands. That's variance! 2F

Quote: bigplayer

I calculated it this way.

For a 25 hand cycle of blackjack with a mean of 11.9725 losses (25 x 0.4789) I look to a POISSON table and find that the odds of losing 22 hands or more out of 25 hands is 0.2965%. The odds of losing exactly 22 hands is 0.1535%. I'm sure someone on more solid mathematical ground will find reason to critique this, but the upshot is that while it's a very long longshot to lose 22 or more hands out of 25 hands when you play long enough you'll see it happen.

i can't disagree more for the value 0.1535%.

Quote: P99

i can't disagree more for the value 0.1535%.

And I wouldn't question your disagreement.

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

My record of losses in a row is 20, previous was 15. That is quite a jump. Record wins in a row is 14 or 15, can't remember. I do remember winning 13, losing 1, and winning next 12, that's winning 25 of 26 hands. That's variance! 2F

It was my understanding that we aren't talking about losing hands "in a row" but just losing 22 out of 25 hands. I've had a six deck shoe where I didn't win a single hand while playing heads up. (all losses or pushes). If you play enough anything can and will happen. Obviously the odds of losing 22 in a row are far greater (and easier to calculate) than the odds of *just* losing any 22 out of 25.

I get a probability of losing 1 or more units on a hand of 0.478696. Therefore the probability of losing on 22 or more hands out of 25 is

combin(25,22)*(0.478696)^22*(1-0.478696)^3 + combin(25,23)*(0.478696)^23*(1-0.478696)^2 + combin(25,24)*(0.478696)^24*(1-0.478696)^1 + combin(25,25)*(0.478696)^25*(1-0.478696)^0 = 0.00337%

Or about 1-in-29710.

Quote: bigplayer

It was my understanding that we aren't talking about losing hands "in a row" but just losing 22 out of 25 hands. I've had a six deck shoe where I didn't win a single hand while playing heads up. (all losses or pushes). If you play enough anything can and will happen. Obviously the odds of losing 22 in a row are far greater (and easier to calculate) than the odds of *just* losing any 22 out of 25.

Big Player, you are correct, but I haven't a clue about how to determine the probabilities of losing 22 of 25 hands. Just reading the story reminded me that, as you said, play long enough and you'll see just about everything. That is not a direct quote, it is a feeble attempt at a paraphrase. Ya got to be careful when you improperly quote people round here ;-) no offense intended...

But then Teliot has presented some math in the next post, looks impressive, got no idea if it's correct or not. 2F

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

But then Teliot has presented some math in the next post, looks impressive, got no idea if it's correct or not. 2F

Yes, it is correct.

The distribution is "binomial" not Poisson." I found this link to a "binomial calculator":

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

A "success' is losing, with probability 0.478696. Plug in 25 trials and x = 22 successes. Then look up P(X >= x), the bottom most entry.