What's the right call?
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March 27th, 2015 at 10:29:03 AM
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Recently playing in AC and a dealer error occurred. The pit was called.
Player 1 (me) Has T Q
Player 2 Has K J
Dealer Has A showing
Because of the dealer error, pit allows both players to choose whether or not to continue the hand BEFORE the dealer checks for blackjack. Off the top of my head, I wasn't sure the right call... I chose to withdraw, Player 2 kept his 20.
It ended up a wash, since the dealer turned over a 4 and then a 5 for 20! But, given this situations comes up again (year right) what would be the correct call?
Player 1 (me) Has T Q
Player 2 Has K J
Dealer Has A showing
Because of the dealer error, pit allows both players to choose whether or not to continue the hand BEFORE the dealer checks for blackjack. Off the top of my head, I wasn't sure the right call... I chose to withdraw, Player 2 kept his 20.
It ended up a wash, since the dealer turned over a 4 and then a 5 for 20! But, given this situations comes up again (year right) what would be the correct call?
March 27th, 2015 at 10:40:15 AM
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It's a very positive EV hand vs an A. I'd imagine you would play it out in most cases, unless you're keeping count and the count is *really* high up there.
March 27th, 2015 at 10:46:44 AM
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I'm kindda curious to know, just what was the error?…
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March 27th, 2015 at 10:50:31 AM
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Hmm, this might need a little bit of math, but off the top of my head I would think with a 20 you would play it out and not withdraw, especially in a S17 game. I too am curious, what was the error?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 27th, 2015 at 10:54:35 AM
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You gave away a +35% EV hand. (30% if it was a H17 game)
Intuitively:
31% of the time the dealer has BJ, 8% of the time they'll push you with a nine under, and the other 61% of the time you're winning or the dealer is getting a lucky 3 or 4 card 20/21.
Even at a count of +3 where you would take insurance, you still would keep your hand and make the insurance bet since, if the dealer doesn't have BJ, your odds of winning the hand are huge. In the case:
33% chance of dealer having BJ which nets you 0 dollars
66% chance of winning 65% of your bet less your insurance bet which gives you an EV of 10%.
Fun Fact:
If Insurance is available, you should pretty much never chuck this hand. Even at TC 10, the dealer only has a 35% chance of having BJ. You're EV Here assuming you take insurance is 5%.
Intuitively:
31% of the time the dealer has BJ, 8% of the time they'll push you with a nine under, and the other 61% of the time you're winning or the dealer is getting a lucky 3 or 4 card 20/21.
Even at a count of +3 where you would take insurance, you still would keep your hand and make the insurance bet since, if the dealer doesn't have BJ, your odds of winning the hand are huge. In the case:
33% chance of dealer having BJ which nets you 0 dollars
66% chance of winning 65% of your bet less your insurance bet which gives you an EV of 10%.
Fun Fact:
If Insurance is available, you should pretty much never chuck this hand. Even at TC 10, the dealer only has a 35% chance of having BJ. You're EV Here assuming you take insurance is 5%.
March 27th, 2015 at 11:14:28 AM
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Just remembered the Wizards hand calculator which indicates it is VERY +EV at +0.600677. Good to know, if this comes up again.
The error was the dealer skipped a hand (his hand) when the cut card came out. He had already dealt the next two cards (10 value) to us when the error was realized (fast dealer). If I were player 2, I would have been annoyed I didn't get a blackjack (normal sequence) but he didn't say anything about that. I was getting a 20 in either case. If cards were in regular sequence I would also have won the hand (deal would have T 4 5 for 19). I should note that the A was not displayed yet when the pit was call, so at that point both players were happy to keep our 20s. Then the pit instructed the dealer to give himself 2 cards, which is when the A was displayed. We were then given the choice.
The error was the dealer skipped a hand (his hand) when the cut card came out. He had already dealt the next two cards (10 value) to us when the error was realized (fast dealer). If I were player 2, I would have been annoyed I didn't get a blackjack (normal sequence) but he didn't say anything about that. I was getting a 20 in either case. If cards were in regular sequence I would also have won the hand (deal would have T 4 5 for 19). I should note that the A was not displayed yet when the pit was call, so at that point both players were happy to keep our 20s. Then the pit instructed the dealer to give himself 2 cards, which is when the A was displayed. We were then given the choice.
