AP Side bets

As your playing strategy, do some of you seek out certain games that have side bets and try to adjust play as an AP opportunity (besides insurance)? I know the Wizard says "side bets are for suckers" but certain literature says it can be profitable (crush counting over/under 13, house money, triple 7).

So do any of you seek out these games? Or research them if they are at certain properties that you will be going to and will study before hitting them?

Most of these side bets don't become playable until very high counts, and even then the variance is enormous. Not worth seeking them out IMO.

As a new counter myself, I was curious about playing the Lucky Ladies side bet myself to possibly increase EV while potentially blowing my cover. Then I looked up what Arnold Snyder had to say about the Lucky Ladies side bet in his book The Big Book of Blackjack. Snyder says "At the two-deck game, with $25 Lucky Ladies bets, you'll probably add about $6/hour to your win rate. The small value is due to the fact that you just won't see the counts you need to place the bet that often. At the six-deck game with $25 LL bets, you'll probably add about $2/hr to your win rate. You'll place the bet even less often. Is it worth it? Quite frankly, in six deck game it's a bad bet because fluctuations can be high compared to the win potential. In two-deck, it's a judgement call. In his opinion he would be afraid to look too much like a counter in addition to the big fluctuations." Snyder includes two other notes about this: "In six-deck game never place a LL bet in the first four decks of the deal, no matter how high your count. Place bet in the last two decks if your running count is +10 or greater. In two deck game never place a LL bet in the first deck of the deal no matter how high your count. Place bet in second deck if your running count is +6 or greater."

I used to like the LL side bet -- but that was before I figured out it's worth so little per hour and that it's a huge counter-catcher.

If I were to play the LL side bet, there'd have to be some extreme circumstances (that likely don't exist) -- like a deeply dealt SD (or maybe DD?) game that allows $100 [or more?] on it, while using a specific count system for the LL bet.

Quote: Wino

As a new counter myself, I was curious about playing the Lucky Ladies side bet myself to possibly increase EV while potentially blowing my cover. Then I looked up what Arnold Snyder had to say about the Lucky Ladies side bet in his book The Big Book of Blackjack. Snyder says "At the two-deck game, with $25 Lucky Ladies bets, you'll probably add about $6/hour to your win rate. The small value is due to the fact that you just won't see the counts you need to place the bet that often. At the six-deck game with $25 LL bets, you'll probably add about $2/hr to your win rate. You'll place the bet even less often. Is it worth it? Quite frankly, in six deck game it's a bad bet because fluctuations can be high compared to the win potential. In two-deck, it's a judgement call. In his opinion he would be afraid to look too much like a counter in addition to the big fluctuations." Snyder includes two other notes about this: "In six-deck game never place a LL bet in the first four decks of the deal, no matter how high your count. Place bet in the last two decks if your running count is +10 or greater. In two deck game never place a LL bet in the first deck of the deal no matter how high your count. Place bet in second deck if your running count is +6 or greater."

Since these are well known I don't mind sharing. This is basically entirely wrong. Especially if you find a 6 deck game with the 2 deck pay table... Pending your hands per hour you can easily add a lot more to your EV. 100 hands per hour = $23 and change. Heads up (200 hph) = $46 and change. Now imagine you have a partner counting Hi/Low on the BJ game, and you're Tens counting the LL... Suddenly each of you has about $50-$60/hour EV (or more pending spread, etc). So between the two of you you're at $100-$120/hour. Sounds profitable to me.

Numbers can be found in the very first link: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=card+counting+lucky+ladies+side+bet

Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?

If you are playing for fun and comps, that looks like a way to get a little more value.

Quote: Dalex64

Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?

If you are playing for fun and comps, that looks like a way to get a little more value.

I'd flat bet if you were playing a quarter game or higher. Then again, if you're looking for AP play, why not use a light spread that won't ever get you backed off to just add to your ladies EV? Example: Say you're playing heads up and getting ~$40+/hour from laides... Why not spread 1-3 or 1-4 green and add another ~$20 to that, with very little chance you'd get backed off from counting? Also, I'd use the Tens count.

Speaking of which, does anyone have a link or know the Tens count True count advantage? I.e. Hi/Low gets you approximately half a percent for each true count. What percent does each Tens count true count get you?

Which Tens count? There are several. But IMO, the best ("insurance count") is: Start at RC of -4 * Decks (start at -8 for DD, -24 for 6d, -32 for 8d). Tens are worth -2, everything else is +1. If the count is at 0, then there are 33% tens remaining in the shoe (or rather, 33% of the remaining cards are tens). If the count is negative, don't insure -- if it's positive, then insure.

Quote: RS

Which Tens count? There are several. But IMO, the best ("insurance count") is: Start at RC of -4 * Decks (start at -8 for DD, -24 for 6d, -32 for 8d). Tens are worth -2, everything else is +1. If the count is at 0, then there are 33% tens remaining in the shoe (or rather, 33% of the remaining cards are tens). If the count is negative, don't insure -- if it's positive, then insure.

A = 0, K/Q/J/10 = -2, everything else = +1

I'd like to know more exactly what % each true count of the Tens count gives me so I can also bet more reliably on the tens count instead of having a partner whom is Hi/Low counting and signaling.

Quote: Dalex64

Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?

Out here in the boonies, at least, a lot of places don't allow a higher bet on the sidebet than the primary bet.

That might significantly limit your LL bet, if you're not willing to raise a little.

Otherwise, back count.

I occasionally play lucky ladies on a double deck if the count is right and no queen of hearts is out, hit the big payoff one time. Had a backoff that may have been attributed to it once, but may not have been the reason as I had already been backed off at that chain and was spreading relatively aggressively as I like to do. In my first year or so of counting and on a small bank I had access to over/under with a $25 max bet and great pen and used a specialized count for that. Most definitely generated heat targeting that.

I'd just like to point out that there have been a couple examples quoting an increased EV of $X per hour while using hi lo, and that is not going to be entirely accurate in the real world. Per 100 hands it will be correct, but playing the sidebet absolutely will slow the game speed down and decrease hands per hour, particularly if you are playing heads up.

If you do have access to over/under 13, the Ubalo count by BRH kicks the crap out of the crush count, even in running count mode, the accuracy on over is uncanny. I miss that bet, super low variance.

sometimes playing these side bets are a trap. For instance if you play the Lucky Ladies for $25 in very high counts you probably should make an occasional $5 bet off the top of a fresh shoe. Many side bets can go positive if you have the right info. The original version (9/1) of 21+3, Royal Match, and many others if you're able to track suits played. The casinos in Minneapolis have the Over/Under but protect it by requiring players to bet no more than they would on their regular blackjack bet which means betting the under for real money just doesn't happen so they use the Over 13 bets to spot counters. Casinos can do the same with Lucky Ladies. Some players have gotten around this by simply knowing when a Queen of Hearts is going to be their first card. That shifts the odds considerably and enables them to make the wager in negative counts.