gav
gav
Joined: Feb 16, 2015
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March 12th, 2015 at 4:51:02 PM permalink
As your playing strategy, do some of you seek out certain games that have side bets and try to adjust play as an AP opportunity (besides insurance)? I know the Wizard says "side bets are for suckers" but certain literature says it can be profitable (crush counting over/under 13, house money, triple 7).

So do any of you seek out these games? Or research them if they are at certain properties that you will be going to and will study before hitting them?
Donuts
Donuts
Joined: Oct 17, 2014
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March 12th, 2015 at 6:09:27 PM permalink
Most of these side bets don't become playable until very high counts, and even then the variance is enormous. Not worth seeking them out IMO.
Wino
Wino
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March 13th, 2015 at 5:31:45 AM permalink
As a new counter myself, I was curious about playing the Lucky Ladies side bet myself to possibly increase EV while potentially blowing my cover. Then I looked up what Arnold Snyder had to say about the Lucky Ladies side bet in his book The Big Book of Blackjack. Snyder says "At the two-deck game, with $25 Lucky Ladies bets, you'll probably add about $6/hour to your win rate. The small value is due to the fact that you just won't see the counts you need to place the bet that often. At the six-deck game with $25 LL bets, you'll probably add about $2/hr to your win rate. You'll place the bet even less often. Is it worth it? Quite frankly, in six deck game it's a bad bet because fluctuations can be high compared to the win potential. In two-deck, it's a judgement call. In his opinion he would be afraid to look too much like a counter in addition to the big fluctuations." Snyder includes two other notes about this: "In six-deck game never place a LL bet in the first four decks of the deal, no matter how high your count. Place bet in the last two decks if your running count is +10 or greater. In two deck game never place a LL bet in the first deck of the deal no matter how high your count. Place bet in second deck if your running count is +6 or greater."
Wanda Wilcox: “I can’t stand people. I hate them.” Chinaski: “Oh, yeah?” Wanda: “You hate them?” Chinaski: “No, but I seem to feel better when they’re not around.” Barfly, starring Mickey Rourke
RS
RS
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March 13th, 2015 at 6:28:06 AM permalink
I used to like the LL side bet -- but that was before I figured out it's worth so little per hour and that it's a huge counter-catcher.

If I were to play the LL side bet, there'd have to be some extreme circumstances (that likely don't exist) -- like a deeply dealt SD (or maybe DD?) game that allows $100 [or more?] on it, while using a specific count system for the LL bet.
Romes
Romes
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March 13th, 2015 at 6:44:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wino

As a new counter myself, I was curious about playing the Lucky Ladies side bet myself to possibly increase EV while potentially blowing my cover. Then I looked up what Arnold Snyder had to say about the Lucky Ladies side bet in his book The Big Book of Blackjack. Snyder says "At the two-deck game, with $25 Lucky Ladies bets, you'll probably add about $6/hour to your win rate. The small value is due to the fact that you just won't see the counts you need to place the bet that often. At the six-deck game with $25 LL bets, you'll probably add about $2/hr to your win rate. You'll place the bet even less often. Is it worth it? Quite frankly, in six deck game it's a bad bet because fluctuations can be high compared to the win potential. In two-deck, it's a judgement call. In his opinion he would be afraid to look too much like a counter in addition to the big fluctuations." Snyder includes two other notes about this: "In six-deck game never place a LL bet in the first four decks of the deal, no matter how high your count. Place bet in the last two decks if your running count is +10 or greater. In two deck game never place a LL bet in the first deck of the deal no matter how high your count. Place bet in second deck if your running count is +6 or greater."


Since these are well known I don't mind sharing. This is basically entirely wrong. Especially if you find a 6 deck game with the 2 deck pay table... Pending your hands per hour you can easily add a lot more to your EV. 100 hands per hour = $23 and change. Heads up (200 hph) = $46 and change. Now imagine you have a partner counting Hi/Low on the BJ game, and you're Tens counting the LL... Suddenly each of you has about $50-$60/hour EV (or more pending spread, etc). So between the two of you you're at $100-$120/hour. Sounds profitable to me.

Numbers can be found in the very first link: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=card+counting+lucky+ladies+side+bet
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dalex64
Dalex64
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March 13th, 2015 at 6:50:17 AM permalink
Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?

If you are playing for fun and comps, that looks like a way to get a little more value.
Romes
Romes
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March 13th, 2015 at 6:53:46 AM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?

If you are playing for fun and comps, that looks like a way to get a little more value.


I'd flat bet if you were playing a quarter game or higher. Then again, if you're looking for AP play, why not use a light spread that won't ever get you backed off to just add to your ladies EV? Example: Say you're playing heads up and getting ~$40+/hour from laides... Why not spread 1-3 or 1-4 green and add another ~$20 to that, with very little chance you'd get backed off from counting? Also, I'd use the Tens count.

Speaking of which, does anyone have a link or know the Tens count True count advantage? I.e. Hi/Low gets you approximately half a percent for each true count. What percent does each Tens count true count get you?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
RS
RS
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March 13th, 2015 at 7:06:54 AM permalink
Which Tens count? There are several. But IMO, the best ("insurance count") is: Start at RC of -4 * Decks (start at -8 for DD, -24 for 6d, -32 for 8d). Tens are worth -2, everything else is +1. If the count is at 0, then there are 33% tens remaining in the shoe (or rather, 33% of the remaining cards are tens). If the count is negative, don't insure -- if it's positive, then insure.
Romes
Romes
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March 13th, 2015 at 7:47:40 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Which Tens count? There are several. But IMO, the best ("insurance count") is: Start at RC of -4 * Decks (start at -8 for DD, -24 for 6d, -32 for 8d). Tens are worth -2, everything else is +1. If the count is at 0, then there are 33% tens remaining in the shoe (or rather, 33% of the remaining cards are tens). If the count is negative, don't insure -- if it's positive, then insure.


A = 0, K/Q/J/10 = -2, everything else = +1

I'd like to know more exactly what % each true count of the Tens count gives me so I can also bet more reliably on the tens count instead of having a partner whom is Hi/Low counting and signaling.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
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March 13th, 2015 at 8:37:43 AM permalink
Quote: Dalex64

Do you think you would get backed off if you were flat betting, and only betting LL during very high counts, while continuing to flat bet?



Out here in the boonies, at least, a lot of places don't allow a higher bet on the sidebet than the primary bet.

That might significantly limit your LL bet, if you're not willing to raise a little.

Otherwise, back count.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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