Triple Down Promotion
Quote: mitkidNew to this forum - but joined based on this thread. Got the promotion info from the Sun and curious what the word was out there. I have confirmed the rules from the player's club people. They said you can triple (not quadruple) down on any hand from 6am Thursday until 6am on Friday. And it did seem like the max bet was $250 (and thus you can slide an extra $500 in for the "triple down".
Another bonus - they are having auditions for American's Top Model down the street at MGM Grand at 10am. It is tough to leave the tables, but for a nice break it could be worth it. Plus my guess is they will be hanging out tonight there.
I am not sure how crowded it will be - I tend to disagree that there will be a line for seats at 6am on a summer Thursday morning. Yes, I will be there, along with a crew. But there is still some volatility here. And that leads me to my question...
QUESTION: If one were to play the full 24 hours, perfect tripling strategy, 60 hands/hour, what are the chances of leaving down Friday morning? I believe it to be around 25%.
I'm no math wiz, but I believe you have to state the percentage of your backroll you are flat-betting for someone to answer the question. Edit: On second thought, no you don't. See the "no math wiz" statement. Duh!
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowlyI'm no math wiz, but I believe you have to state the percentage of your backroll you are flat-betting for someone to answer the question. Edit: On second thought, no you don't. See the "no math wiz" statement. Duh!
Correct, you don't. But there is a very real chance of losing, and losing very big. You should be concerned with your Risk of Ruin.
This promotion is far from a sure thing - the edge is very small, and the variance is around 50% higher than regular blackjack, so the swings will be absolutely enormous; this may be what they're counting on. This promo is really only for those with a very strong stomach, and a VERY large bankroll.
I wouldn't object if someone wanted to run the numbers for N hands though. It might bring all the hype back to reality a little bit.
Assume you are flipping a coin with p=50.75% you win, p=49.25% you lose (a 1.5% player advantage).
stdev = sqrt (# hands * 50.75% * 49.25).
Assume 60 hands/hour for 24 hours (1,440 hands).
So stdev = 19, and expected wins is 731
Breakeven is 720 wins = 11 away from expected. 11/19 = .569 standard deviations.
A normal distribution will hit .569 standard deviations from mean 28.4% of the time, and so you can expect to be down 28.4% of the time by Friday at 6am.
Confirmation? Wizard?
I've played twelve of these so far and have won two. Since the player risks nothing, it's a good deal for those betting table minimum, but probably meaningless to the purple chip player at a $10 table. Come to think of it, it will mean a heck of a lot to the purple chip players and here's why: Be prepared for play to come to a grinding halt every hour on the hour as the players ask the same questions over and over and the floorperson painstakingly explains it over and over and over.Hands per hour will take a dive on the day of all days that you want them to increase. I went into this much detail in hopes that all who read this will have a heads up and will just go with the flow rather than having to ask questions upon seeing those white chips suddenly appear. The casino was dead at 11:00 this morning but that will soon change.
Good luck to everyone heading to Uncasville. I'll be right there with ya.
Quote: mitkidAssume large enough bankroll so no risk of ruin.
Assume you are flipping a coin with p=50.75% you win, p=49.25% you lose (a 1.5% player advantage).
stdev = sqrt (# hands * 50.75% * 49.25).
Assume 60 hands/hour for 24 hours (1,440 hands).
So stdev = 19, and expected wins is 731
Breakeven is 720 wins = 11 away from expected. 11/19 = .569 standard deviations.
A normal distribution will hit .569 standard deviations from mean 28.4% of the time, and so you can expect to be down 28.4% of the time by Friday at 6am.
Confirmation? Wizard?
Where is the variance accounted for? In regular blackjack, it's 1.3, in this game, it's about 1.9.
From qfit:
Assuming 1440 hands, with a win rate of 1.5%, stdev=1.4:
50% of the time you'll end between -15 and 60 units
75% of the time you'll end between -41 and 90 units
Let's see, for a $250 bet, betting full kelly would require a bankroll of about (K=BR*EV/VAR) $30k. But that leave a (lifetime) risk of ruin at 13.5%, which is a bit high for my taste!
Quote: jrsWhere is the variance accounted for? In regular blackjack, it's 1.3, in this game, it's about 1.9.
The variance is part of the standard deviation calculation.
Btw, what all of this says is we should be teaming up...
Wednesday night fireworks are cancelled. Bummer.
The $500 limit is the limit on the "triple down" portion of the bet. So, if you bet $700, you can double for $700, and then your triple is limited to $500 more.
This was the example in the email and seemed pretty clear. No clarity on what happens to the limit if there is a split involved, but that is a smaller issue anyway. Also no clarity on whether players will be limited to one hand - they might. She seemed pretty certain the promotion would last the full duration - though she would not swear to it of course.
So, there you go. The promotion is twice as good as most of us thought, and if you are going to maximize, be ready to flat bet $500.
Now, in return for this service I have provided the board, I would like to ask for a service from the Wizard (with whom I have never corresponded, but for whom, I'd just like to say, I have tremendous admiration). Wizard, I was grateful to have your table of exact MS triple down basic strategy and I have committed it to memory. Any chance you can provide a table of high low indices? Or, at the least, the indices on common triple down decisions. Or, at the least, the indices on the new triple downs, like 8 v. 6. I am going to have to play through some negative counts and I don't want to be betting an additional grand on 8 v. 6 if it isn't a good play.
Thanks.
Quote: FeanorThe $500 limit is the limit on the "triple down" portion of the bet. So, if you bet $700, you can double for $700, and then your triple is limited to $500 more.
[...]
So, there you go. The promotion is twice as good as most of us thought [...]
If true this is pretty sick. I wish I had the bankroll to bet the max.
Like, if I am willing to assume the risk of losing $20k, how likely would i be to make it through the day.
Also, do things change if I have friends with me who are using my money and we bet smaller amounts than the max to lower variance? I am thinking two people betting at once does not change things in terms of risk, you just get more hands in...right?
Quote: mmmcherriesProbably a noob question, but how big does my bankroll have to be to take advantage of this with a low chance of busting?
Like, if I am willing to assume the risk of losing $20k, how likely would i be to make it through the day.
Also, do things change if I have friends with me who are using my money and we bet smaller amounts than the max to lower variance? I am thinking two people betting at once does not change things in terms of risk, you just get more hands in...right?
More hands at less money does reduce variance, and, in this case, is a safer play, since you already have a Player advantage. By playing more hands, you'll get closer to the average number of Triple Down opportunities. With one hand, you might get more than the average number, but you could also get a long streak of none.
Also what do people think, if I am able to get there by 9:30 am, any chance of getting a table? What if I have a friend that is playing already that wants to leave, is it likely I'll be able to stand behind him and take the seat when he does, or are you guys thinking it will be several people deep waiting behind each seat?
Good Luck
Quote: Feanor
The $500 limit is the limit on the "triple down" portion of the bet. So, if you bet $700, you can double for $700, and then your triple is limited to $500 more.
Hmmm. So, if the player bets $500, then he can make an additional wager of $1000, because $500 was the "double" and the "triple" is limited to $500 more?
Quote: FeanorAny chance you can provide a table of high low indices? Or, at the least, the indices on common triple down decisions. Or, at the least, the indices on the new triple downs, like 8 v. 6. I am going to have to play through some negative counts and I don't want to be betting an additional grand on 8 v. 6 if it isn't a good play.
Thanks for the kind words, but I don't have the programs to do this. Sorry. I could perhaps make a list of the borderline plays, and let you players make eyeball deviations based on the count, or your risk tolerance.
Soon the sun will rise. None of us will see it, of course. It’s quiet. Very quiet. Too quiet. Must…get…sleep…
At this point, I think it is too late to bothering with my list of borderline plays. However, I did have a look at the dealer hits soft 17 strategy. There were no changes to the triples. Just two surrender changes, which basic strategy players should know: Surrender 15 vs A (added), 17 vs A, and 8+8 vs A, when dealer hits soft 17.
The force that seems to operate for good or ill in a person's life, as in shaping circumstances, events, or opportunities: With my luck I'll probably get pneumonia.
Since I don't believe in luck, if the word is defined that way, I can't in good conscience say "good luck." However, I will say I hope all my readers who are playing this fall in the right side of the bell curve.
Quote: WizardI forgot that is tomorrow. For all who go, please submit your trip reports when it is over and after you've had a chance to sleep.
At this point, I think it is too late to bothering with my list of borderline plays. However, I did have a look at the dealer hits soft 17 strategy. There were no changes to the triples. Just two surrender changes, which basic strategy players should know: Surrender 17 vs A, and 8+8 vs A, when dealer hits soft 17.
Any info on borderline plays would be great if it's not too late.
Also, does anyone have indices for the A8 / A9 hands? Even a rough estimate would be great. I'm having a little trouble figuring out these hands (and I don't have access to a sim) and I'm really looking for any chance to reduce variance I can get :)
Quote: WizardI forgot that is tomorrow. For all who go, please submit your trip reports when it is over and after you've had a chance to sleep.
At this point, I think it is too late to bothering with my list of borderline plays. However, I did have a look at the dealer hits soft 17 strategy. There were no changes to the triples. Just two surrender changes, which basic strategy players should know: Surrender 17 vs A, and 8+8 vs A, when dealer hits soft 17.
Don't surrender 15 v. A?
WhooooHoooo!!! We're gonna gamble 'til we puke!
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowlyDon't surrender 15 v. A?
That one too.
Quote: WizardThat one too.
I don't understand :(
In a regular "double-down" game, you would surrender this hand, right? So, what is changed? Provided, that you are not going to triple down in this case, I would expect it to be exactly the same strategy as in the regular game. Why the change?
Edit: Oh, never mind ... This is about when the dealer hits on soft 17 strategy, when you would normally surrender as well. Sorry, I missed it at first. Too bad there is no "delete" button next to the post over here :(
Quote: mmmcherriesIf anyone can, please post updates in this thread regarding what it's like over at Mohegan. Would be very cool if someone is able to post while they are there. Curious as to whether it will be a zoo or just another Thursday.
Yes, hopefully we have someone that has a smartphone in their pocket to give some updates. Best of luck to all those that are already there - or on their way.
Quote: CbivitzMidnight at Mohegan Sun. The night before the assault. All the years of planning. The brutal training. The horrific losing streaks and the occasional moment when lady luck shone down favorably. It all comes down to this. One 24 hour opportunity to stick it to a casino right up the sphincter. Sure, the rookies are nervous. I say you’d be crazy not to be nervous. Anything can happen. Split 8’s to a dealer 6. Split them again. Double down on all three. 16 turns into 21. We’ve all seen it.
Soon the sun will rise. None of us will see it, of course. It’s quiet. Very quiet. Too quiet. Must…get…sleep…
Nice! I'm looking forward to more updates.
Quote: mmmcherriesProbably a noob question, but how big does my bankroll have to be to take advantage of this with a low chance of busting?
Like, if I am willing to assume the risk of losing $20k, how likely would i be to make it through the day.
Also, do things change if I have friends with me who are using my money and we bet smaller amounts than the max to lower variance? I am thinking two people betting at once does not change things in terms of risk, you just get more hands in...right?
20K betting the $500 max will give you a pretty high chance of busting. I'd say around 35-40%. You could reduce the variance but splitting the betting amongst your two friends and going $175 flat each. You would still have a good chance of busting, but it would be reduced. Maybe to 25-30%. The more spread out you are, the less variance, and the more likely your results will fall in the "middle" of the bell curve.
SHOULD I SAY I TOLD YOU SO!
SHOULD I SAY IF IN THE FUTURE YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT MOHEGANSUN YOU SHOULD ADDRESS ME!
I MAY BE ADDRESSED AS THE WIZARD OF CONNECTICUT!
I got to the casino at 5:30A.M. and glanced at the $100 tables all appeared normal.
Went to the lounge, no hot food till 6 A.M. Per the wizard I have to skip my hot breakfest and lineup to get a seat.
I decided to start out at the $50 tables and if all went well increase to 2 hands $175 each. When I got to the $50 area a normal 6 A.M. crowd and I use that word loosely. I sat down to confirm playing promotion and got the bad news: NO QUADRUPLE DOWN! NO TRIPLE DOWN! The promotion is as follows: TWICE YOUR BET FOR PROMOTION, example: bet 100 double down for an additional 200. bet 75 double for additional 150. As you can imagine I was very bummed out. Here I am up at the crack of dawn at the casino due to an uninformed so called experts advice. (No disrespect intended) I usually like the availability of many open tables, because unlike many players I will not stay at a table losing 5k-10k hoping that the table will change. But I'm here so I played. I might add with no accurate strategy card for these rules. So I had to wing it not straying to far from basic strategy. Before I knew what hit me I lost EVERY double down and was quickly down 6k. I decided to go where I feel more comfortable at the $100 tables. PLENTY OF SEATS AVAILABLE! Bought in for 2k and in a little over an hour made the 6k back and left with a 4k profit. I am going to try and hit them again tonite.
P.S. when I left at 9:30 it was still empty
Quote: only1choiceI sat down to confirm playing promotion and got the bad news: NO QUADRUPLE DOWN! NO TRIPLE DOWN! The promotion is as follows: TWICE YOUR BET FOR PROMOTION, example: bet 100 double down for an additional 200. bet 75 double for additional 150.
Isn't that (what we've been calling) a triple down though? Congrats on your successes so far!
Yep. That sure sounds like tripling down to me.Quote: only1choice... example: bet 100 double down for an additional 200. bet 75 double for additional 150.
Thanks for the early report! As was said, if you can bet 2x your original bet on the additional bet, then it IS tripling down. I admit I was way off in my estimate of the crowd. Sorry to have caused you to get there so early. Looks like I may lose my honor, but win $30, on my prop bets. I hope you do well in your second sitting.
Example at the $100 tables early in my play I split 8's pulled a 2 and attempted the additional bet with floorperson looking on. He said nothing. Later I tried again and he stopped the game and said that just got a call from upstairs, promo only on first two cards. Of course I won. THANK YOU for your congrats. and right back at you money in your pockets, always
Quote: mmmcherriesI think the confusion may be regarding the limits, sounds like $165 is the Maximum you can bet to get full value of the promotion ($165*3 = 495). Still a sweet deal but not nearly as sweet as betting 500.
I haven't see that mentioned. The one poster said they called the casino and the $500 max was only on the "triple" portion of the bet, so you could still bet $500 and back it up with $1k. Obviously you could bet up to the table max and still double it, but the "triple" was limited to $500.
Quote: long3216I hate to ask what to most might be a dumb question, but when you're betting using Kelly system, and you bet 1.2% of you're bankroll, do you adjust your bet size continually as your bankroll goes up or down? Leaving for MS in about an hour. Thanks.
Yes, if you can do those calculations on the fly.
good luck to all.
Quote: martinetJust returned from MS, triple bet limited to @500, so you could bet $500 per hand, triple allowed after split. In addition each hour 1 player at each table gets a match play for the table minimum bet. With all that broke even, but had fun.
It still seems unclear. You say Triple was limited to 500. So if you bet 500 a hand, wouldn't you be just playing regular Double Down? 250 would let you bet 500 and maximize the Player Advantage, unless you really can put 3x the original bet, which would mean 165.
Quote: cclub79It still seems unclear. You say Triple was limited to 500. So if you bet 500 a hand, wouldn't you be just playing regular Double Down? 250 would let you bet 500 and maximize the Player Advantage, unless you really can put 3x the original bet, which would mean 165.
I still think - and please someone who is there correct me - that the $500 limit was only on the "triple" portion - or in other words, the bet in addition to the regular double-down. So you could bet $1k, and then the most you could bet behind it would be $1500, for $2500 total bet.
The max advantage play would be $500 regular bet, which you could then fully "triple" with another $1k, for $1500 total bet.
Quote: ruascottI still think - and please someone who is there correct me - that the $500 limit was only on the "triple" portion - or in other words, the bet in addition to the regular double-down. So you could bet $1k, and then the most you could bet behind it would be $1500, for $2500 total bet.
The max advantage play would be $500 regular bet, which you could then fully "triple" with another $1k, for $1500 total bet.
OK, I wasn't separating the "bonus triple" part of the double down in my head.
Mohegan Sun Interim Report:
These are just my observations and I assume there are others who might have had a very different take.
At six in the morning there were available seats (in the $100 minimum pit in the Sky casino) at the six open tables, although it was certainly busier than it would be otherwise. Throughout the day it was busy, but never a time when you couldn't get a seat. I took a break mid-morning and wandered around and observed that there were seats in all denominations for both blackjack and Spanish 21. In the $500 minimum pit there was one person at three available tables. Around 8:00 they added two tables and at 10:00 two more and late afternoon there were 13 $100 minimum tables open with some (4?) available seats.
There was (as predicted by some) quite a bit of confusion about the rules and for about an hour they were not allowing triple down on splits, but then they reversed themselves and allowed it. As dealers and pit bosses (oops. Floor Admirals) came on during the day they all were unaware of the promotion and had to be schooled in the rules.
The play exaggerates your swings as you would expect. I had one hand (fortunately after they re-allowed tripling down after spit) where I split 7’s twice and tripled down on all three hands and a dealer bust. Whoohoo!
About mid-day I would say that at least half of the players were tourists that just happened to be there (at 6:00 almost all were sharpies). They were intrigued by the triple down option, but rarely played it properly. Also the 'free hand at the top of the hour' promotion was in effect, but at my table two of the players refused to participate because the marker that is put down at x:45 was 'in my way'. Thank you. 5 out of 9 times I was awarded a table minimum bet.
They will certainly honor the promotion for the duration (good on ya MS). Sorry for anyone whose honor is at stake on that bet. I assume the casino will take a hit, but nothing that would be more than a gnat to this behemoth. It may, in fact, turn out to be profitable for them based on my observations. Hopefully they will offer it again. It sure was fun. Time for a nap… (at my age I say that every day right around now)
