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zeppelin
zeppelin
Joined: Jun 29, 2010
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June 29th, 2010 at 8:36:41 AM permalink
So a local Connecticut casino is having a promotion in the middle of next month where a player can triple down for one day only on Blackjack and Spanish 21 hands. Especially for Spanish, and assuming that rescue is still a viable option, would this alter optimum betting strategy both for BS play or using the hi-lo? Provided I'm not working on that particular weekday I intend to head down and take advantage of this offer as long as there are available seats at the tables :)
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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June 29th, 2010 at 10:45:39 AM permalink
Hmm...interesting. Spanish is probably the better play if double-down rescue is still allowed. And you probably would take the opportunity to "triple-down" more. Looking forward to seeing someone's analysis.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Kellynbnf
Kellynbnf
Joined: May 5, 2010
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June 30th, 2010 at 5:44:41 AM permalink
For regular blackjack, this page was made by the Wizard for "Triple Up 21" that allows the player to make a tripling bet in some cases.
http://wizardofodds.com/tripleup21

The aforementioned game has the dealer hitting on soft 17 (the strategy may be slightly different if it's a S17 game). Also assuming six decks, here's the additional hands that you'd want to triple under this promotion according to that page:

8 vs. 5
9 vs. 2
11 vs. A
Soft 13/14 vs. 4
Soft 18 vs. 2
Soft 19 vs. 3-6
Soft 20 vs. 4-6

The page also mentions that you should triple a blackjack vs. a dealer 6, but if naturals still pay 3:2 (or even 6:5) under this promotion that does not apply (with "Triple Up 21" blackjacks pay only even money).
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 1st, 2010 at 9:37:21 AM permalink
I wish I could play that. As stated above, my Triple Up 21 strategy will apply in a hit-soft 17 game, except don't triple on a blackjack if blackjack pays at least 6-5. The triple-down rule by itself is worth 1.64%!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teddys
teddys
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July 1st, 2010 at 10:17:18 AM permalink
Just remember, even with a 1.5% advantage, it is a high variance play, so make sure your bankroll is adequate. No need to get greedy and start betting the max right away.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 1st, 2010 at 10:47:54 AM permalink
I found out more details about this. This is all public information from the Mohegan Sun promotions web site. Scroll to the bottom. Here are the pertinent rules:

1. It runs from 6:00 AM July 15 to 6:00 AM July 16.
2. Valid on any blackjack or Spanish 21 table.
3. Maximum triple-down wager of $500.

I understand their most liberal blackjack rules to be as follows:

1. 6 decks.
2. Dealer stands on soft 17.
3. Double after split allowed.
4. Surrender allowed.
5. Re-splitting aces not allowed.

Before the triple-down rule, I show the house edge is 0.35%. After the triple down rule, the player edge is 1.53%!

I assume the maximum triple-down wager means the player can make an original bet of $250, and triple down for $500 more. So betting $250 a hand would have an expected profit of $3.83 per hand, or $229.50 per hour, assuming 60 hands per hour. Following is my basic strategy.

It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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July 1st, 2010 at 11:53:14 AM permalink
Gee, it's almost worth getting on a jet and flying out to Uncasville for the day. In fact, I bet some people will large bankrolls will do just that.

I also foresee A LOT of people over betting their bankrolls on this and busting out... You should not bet more than 1.53% of your bankroll at a variance of 1 using the Kelly Criterion. The variance is probably higher than 1 because of the triple-down factor.

Nice work!
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
lucky13
lucky13
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
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July 1st, 2010 at 12:06:42 PM permalink
Question on the Soft 12. Chart indicates to Triple up versus 5/6, but the only way to get a soft 12 is with AA, which the chart also says to split? Is this due to no resplit of Aces? So, if I get AA, do I split, and then Triple if I get another A? Can you please review? See all of you East Coasters there on that Thursday night.... Wow... Thanks for the notice and thanks for the chart.
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 1st, 2010 at 12:56:25 PM permalink
Quote: lucky13

Question on the Soft 12. Chart indicates to Triple up versus 5/6, but the only way to get a soft 12 is with AA, which the chart also says to split? Is this due to no resplit of Aces? So, if I get AA, do I split, and then Triple if I get another A? Can you please review? See all of you East Coasters there on that Thursday night.... Wow... Thanks for the notice and thanks for the chart.



Good point. It is necessary to indicate how to play a soft 12 if there is a cap on re-splitting and the player can hit, stand, or double after splitting aces. In this case, drawing to split aces is not allowed, so that row doesn't apply. I'll get rid of it.

Quote: teddys

Gee, it's almost worth getting on a jet and flying out to Uncasville for the day. In fact, I bet some people will large bankrolls will do just that.



I agree. If I were not so far away then I'd get there at least three hours before the starting time, just to ensure I got a seat. I predict it will be a zoo there on the day of.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
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July 1st, 2010 at 1:54:43 PM permalink
I'll give an over/under of 1PM the day of, before the promotion is shut down. I'd probably take the under.

To earn my VIG, I win if the shutdown time is between 12:45 and 1:15 PM --

Takers? Maybe W would like to book ...

--Dorothy
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"

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