Triple Down Promotion
Quote: AyecarumbaI will take the "over" on the 1 pm shut down (with Vig), and will also take the 3-1, as I believe that it will run the full term.
A question for the AP's: Are there marginal circumstances where a double down would still be the most appropriate play, even if triple down is allowed?
Very good, I hope you have a lot of honor to lose!
--Dorothy
Quote: WizardI hedged my bets, and have $10 at 3-1 with a friend that it goes as planned the full 24 hours.
So you're betting real $$$ with a friend on my line, but your "honor" with me??? I guess the implication is that you value your honor much more than $10. I can live with that.
--Dorothy
Quote: DorothyGaleSo you're betting real $$$ with a friend on my line, but your "honor" with me??? I guess the implication is that you value your honor much more than $10. I can live with that.
--Dorothy
I'm just hoping to say I took the honor of a sweet Kansas farm girl.
Quote: WizardBased on an infinite-deck, and dealer stands on soft 17, here are the expected values for hard 8 vs. 6:
Hit: 0.11496015
Double: 0.087015198
Triple: 0.130522797
So doubling is positive, but not enough to make it better than hitting. The additional expected value by tripling is enough to make it better than hitting.
The table you published calls for splitting 4,4 against dealer 6, which assumed triple-after-split(TAS) allowed. Again, if we assume a conservative double-only after split, would you split or triple-down 4,4 against dealer 6?
Quote: jmaftirThe table you published calls for splitting 4,4 against dealer 6, which assumed triple-after-split(TAS) allowed. Again, if we assume a conservative double-only after split, would you split or triple-down 4,4 against dealer 6?
Good question. I have my spreadsheet on this at the office. I think an answer will have to wait until Monday.
I'm getting 1.15%, is this correct?
Quote: jmaftirThe table you published calls for splitting 4,4 against dealer 6, which assumed triple-after-split(TAS) allowed. Again, if we assume a conservative double-only after split, would you split or triple-down 4,4 against dealer 6?
Perhaps Wizard has already answered this question with the table posted at https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix5.html. Using basic strategy which incorporates DAS, the recommendation for 4,4 vs. 6 is to split with an expected 0.1516 return. This would beat treating 4,4 as hard 8 and tripling down for the exptected 0.1305 return Wizard posted.
Btw, MS is out of rooms for this promotion. The last ones went for $500+. I've taken the promotion day and the one after as vacation to go have some fun. Booked my room for $99 a day or so after the promotion announcement was mailed. I plan on bringing snacks with me to I don't have to break for a meal if it's as jammed as I think it will be. Maybe I can play for 20 hours total. Gotta grab while the grabbin's good.
Quote: WizardHere is a worst case scenario for the casino. Their web site says they have 300 table games. Let's assume the following:
BJ tables 200
Spots/table 6
Total hours 24
Hands/hr 60
Avg. bet 250
Player advantage 0.0153
The product of all the above is $6,609,600. However, that is assuming the worst at every step of the way. Things that will bring it down are:
1. Not opening all tables, and/or switching some to other games for the day.
2. Asking the dealers to slow play the game. Do lots of rack fills, changing cards, and anything else to slow it down.
3. Not all the players are going to bet the optimal $250/hand. Some won't have the bankroll for it, and others will be recreational players who bet small regardless of the rules.
4. Not every player will know the correct strategy. Likely few will.
I roughly figure these factors will bring the loss down to about 2M, assuming it goes unchanged the full 24 hours.
Quote: long3216Does anyone have any suggestions regarding how to bet this promotion? Since the odds favor the player, is flat betting the way to go if you don't count cards? Thanks.
Yes, flat bet the lesser of $250/hand or 1.2% of your bankroll.
Hey Wiz,
Thanks for the charts for the triple/quad promo. Have you been able to create similar ones for SP21? I expect it wouldn't be as valuable, due to the rarer double-down occasions, but the DDR might reduce variance somewhat.
Quote: CbivitzSo the proper bankroll to bet $250/hand would be $208K or more?
Your result is off a decimal place: $250/1.15% = $21,739
A few questions, as I'm considering taking a trip up from DC to take advantage of this promo...
1) I know the Wizard posted the expected profit per hour based on a bet of $250/hand, and I assume you can calculate the expected profit from any other bet amount (under $250, so you can still maximize the promo of course) easily. However is there any way to calculate the variance and likelihood of a certain level of profit or loss given a certain number of hands? Basically I'm looking for something like this made up graph, which I think I've seen a real version of before http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3729922/outcome.JPG
2) The 1.2% of bankroll or $250, whichever is smaller, is that simply based on Kelly betting? Is there a formula for that? I see online Kelly bet calculators, but they require more info than I know (I know hypothetical bankroll and player edge, but not standard deviation, etc..)
3) How do things change if there are more seats in play. I'm considering playing with 1-2 other guys, and my understanding is that spreading to, say, three hands of $83 is less risky than a single hand of $250, and that if I'm willing to accept the risk of one hand of $250 I could have the same risk at three hands of, say $100. Is there a formula to calculate the Kelly or other ideal bet for multiple hands? What about the new probability of a certain amount of profit or loss?
4) Finally, a non-mathematical question: If I take two people with me do you think it makes sense to play three seats or two? I know three makes sense for minimizing risk (assuming we're not betting more of course, just spreading the bet further), but I also don't have confidence I can play blackjack for 24+ hours if the promo runs the full time. If a casino has players waiting to get in a game, will they allow players to rotate out, or will they force our third guy to wait in line. I can see arguments both ways from the casino's perspective, but allowing the three of us to take a one hour break after two hours of playing certainly has appeal...on the other hand if the promo only runs 6 hours I'll feel like we didn't make good use of our resources. If the promo lasts only 1 hour...I'll feel I wasted the trip ;)
Thanks in advance for any and all help!
Quote: sunrise089Hello all, first time poster long time reader ;)
A few questions, as I'm considering taking a trip up from DC to take advantage of this promo...
1) I know the Wizard posted the expected profit per hour based on a bet of $250/hand, and I assume you can calculate the expected profit from any other bet amount (under $250, so you can still maximize the promo of course) easily. However is there any way to calculate the variance and likelihood of a certain level of profit or loss given a certain number of hands? Basically I'm looking for something like this made up graph, which I think I've seen a real version of before http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3729922/outcome.JPG
2) The 1.2% of bankroll or $250, whichever is smaller, is that simply based on Kelly betting? Is there a formula for that? I see online Kelly bet calculators, but they require more info than I know (I know hypothetical bankroll and player edge, but not standard deviation, etc..)
3) How do things change if there are more seats in play. I'm considering playing with 1-2 other guys, and my understanding is that spreading to, say, three hands of $83 is less risky than a single hand of $250, and that if I'm willing to accept the risk of one hand of $250 I could have the same risk at three hands of, say $100. Is there a formula to calculate the Kelly or other ideal bet for multiple hands? What about the new probability of a certain amount of profit or loss?
4) Finally, a non-mathematical question: If I take two people with me do you think it makes sense to play three seats or two? I know three makes sense for minimizing risk (assuming we're not betting more of course, just spreading the bet further), but I also don't have confidence I can play blackjack for 24+ hours if the promo runs the full time. If a casino has players waiting to get in a game, will they allow players to rotate out, or will they force our third guy to wait in line. I can see arguments both ways from the casino's perspective, but allowing the three of us to take a one hour break after two hours of playing certainly has appeal...on the other hand if the promo only runs 6 hours I'll feel like we didn't make good use of our resources. If the promo lasts only 1 hour...I'll feel I wasted the trip ;)
Thanks in advance for any and all help!
Best of luck to you...hopefully they don't pull the plug on it a few hours in....and hopefully its not so swamped that players are camping out at the tables well before the promotion even starts. Typically casinos wouldn't have any problem with your 3rd player taking your seat while you take a break. However, I've never bothered to wait in a long line to play any game before, so I don't know how that would be handled. I'll take a wild guess that if you don't have a seat by the time the promotion starts, you probabaly won't get one the entire time. And who knows if they'll even keep the tables where you are open all night long. I could see them coming around at around 2am or so and announcing that certain tables will be closing.
I can't wait to read the reports from people later this week about their adventures. Please keep us posted.
Not to try and spam the thread before all of my questions above are even answered, but I'll add one more than then try to control myself:
5) Is it worth calling the casino on Wednesday and asking about switching players and if they know which tables will be closed? Will they be totally unhelpful? If I had to guess I'd try and play a $100 table thinking they would be least likely to be shut down, but who knows, maybe they'll keep the lower limit tables open instead. Trickiest part comes from trying to get a seat in the first place - I think a $100 seat might not be too hard to get at 2:00-3:00am (a few hours before the promo starts), but I'd rather not give the casino that kind of money up front.
Quote: sunrise089
2) The 1.2% of bankroll or $250, whichever is smaller, is that simply based on Kelly betting? Is there a formula for that? I see online Kelly bet calculators, but they require more info than I know (I know hypothetical bankroll and player edge, but not standard deviation, etc..)
the general formula is ((O*P)-L)/O where O=net odds received on the wager P=probability of winning and L=probability of losing.
Can you sit there and triple-down all day? Or can you just do "once"?
"A maximum Triple Down bet of $500.00 applies..."
Note the "A".
This is a hugely important distinction... anyone know the real truth? The language is ambiguous.
Quote: jrsOne important question:
Can you sit there and triple-down all day? Or can you just do "once"?
"A maximum Triple Down bet of $500.00 applies..."
Note the "A".
This is a hugely important distinction... anyone know the real truth? The language is ambiguous.
I suppose lawyers would say there is wiggle room on that, but it stands to reason players can triple-down on any hand played during the promotion period. Of course MS is the authority on this, but it has been my experience that the people handling telephone calls won't comment on specific game rules or how many tables will be open. It doesn't hurt to call yourself. You might have better luck. MS would do tremendous image damage to themselves if players showed up for the promotion and could only wager a single $500 triple-down bet.
Quote: sunrise089Thanks for the replay ruascott!
Not to try and spam the thread before all of my questions above are even answered, but I'll add one more than then try to control myself:
5) Is it worth calling the casino on Wednesday and asking about switching players and if they know which tables will be closed? Will they be totally unhelpful? If I had to guess I'd try and play a $100 table thinking they would be least likely to be shut down, but who knows, maybe they'll keep the lower limit tables open instead. Trickiest part comes from trying to get a seat in the first place - I think a $100 seat might not be too hard to get at 2:00-3:00am (a few hours before the promo starts), but I'd rather not give the casino that kind of money up front.
I would be willing to bet that they won't tell you much of anything over the phone, because likely the person you are talking to would have no idea. Opening/closing tables seems to be done more "on the fly", kind of like managing staff at a restaurant.
May I add to my previous post, I live in Ct. 45 minutes from ms. I go every Wed, Thur and Fri nites. On Thursdays when the arena is dark and the arena is dark it is quiet during the day and a graveyard in many areas after 9pm. You seem to believe that a bunch of sharpies will be knocking down the doors to get in and every table will be packed. You are giving the ms regular players to much credit. The last two weeks while in the "players lounge" I have mentioned the promotion to some people I know and some strangers and NO ONE knew what I was talking about. About (15 people) Three floorpersons who supervise 2-4 bj tables knew very little about it. In my previous post one other floorperson had a lot to say! I also spoke to 3 different pit bosses on different days and they considered it a minor promotion.
Also please keep in mind they will not be handing out money like candy! Think about the times you had an unlucky streak of doubledowns losses. You will need a counters bankroll for down swings.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND MONEY IN YOUR POCKET ALWAYS!
Quote: only1choiceThe last two weeks while in the "players lounge"
Are you 33rd floor worthy?
Has anyone figured out which hands we should now triple (in Spanish) instead of just hitting (eg. 10 v 9, 9 v 4/5)? I am assuming we are throwing out most if not all of the "Just hit on X cards or more (instead of double)" rules if we are allowed to triple on any number of cards - is this correct?
Quote: WizardNo, sorry, I have not studied strategy deviations based on the count. Given how strong this is, I wouldn't fuss with counting and just play basic strategy.
Certainly it would be wise to watch out for negative counts, no? Once the Hi-Lo count hits approx. -3 we will no longer be playing with an advantage (unless I am oversimplifying the contribution of the triple-down rule to the player edge), and also at these (and more) negative counts a lot of doubles will become -EV, leading to triples/quadruples becoming disastrous plays!
Quote: duanedibleyHas anyone figured out any Risk Averse adjustments to the Wizard's Blackjack Triple Down and Quadruple Down strategies (which I assume are EV maximizing)? Some of those plays look brutal... :)
Nothing worthwhile for the triple-down case. A,3 vs 4 is 0.8% of a bet improvement tripling vs hitting. All the other triples are worth at least 1.5% of a bet. Too much to give up.
Quote: fivespotNothing worthwhile for the triple-down case. A,3 vs 4 is 0.8% of a bet improvement tripling vs hitting. All the other triples are worth at least 1.5% of a bet. Too much to give up.
Thank you for the info.
- Player may triple down on first two cards, double down after split: 1.39%
- Player may triple down on first two cards, triple down after split: 1.59%
- Player may quadruple down on first two cards, double down after split: 3.20%
- Player may quadruple down on first two cards, quadruple down after split: 3.62%
If the player can double after a split only, then the conventional splitting strategy should be used. In the unlikely event the player may quadruple, but double only after a split, the player should quadruple 4,4 vs 6.
Quote: fivespothas anyone analyzed Spanish 21 under the triple down promotion? is it as good or better than blackjack? i was about to start on the analysis, but i'd hate to waste my time if someone else has already done it. :)
I show Spanish 21 is not nearly as good as blackjack under this promotion. Assuming the player may triple down at any time, I show the player advantage is 0.98%. Although the player may normally double at any time in Spanish 21, including after splitting, and with any number of cards, I believe the removal of the tens makes the tripling less powerful than in blackjack.
Quote: WizardI show Spanish 21 is not nearly as good as blackjack under this promotion. Assuming the player may triple down at any time, I show the player advantage is 0.98%. Although the player may normally double at any time in Spanish 21, including after splitting, and with any number of cards, I believe the removal of the tens makes the tripling less powerful than in blackjack.
Is that with just basic strategy, or with a special strategy designed for SP21 tripledown? My sims shows about the same result with only basic strategy, but also a lower variance than BJ.
If it's a new BS, would you mind posting it?
SP21 at Mohegan, if I remember right, doesn't allow you to hit/double split aces, which is an irritating rule.
Quote: jrsIs that with just basic strategy, or with a special strategy designed for SP21 tripledown? My sims shows about the same result with only basic strategy, but also a lower variance than BJ.
If it's a new BS, would you mind posting it?
SP21 at Mohegan, if I remember right, doesn't allow you to hit/double split aces, which is an irritating rule.
That would be for a strategy optimized for the promotion. I'll try to post a strategy later, but I would only play SP21 if you couldn't find a table at blackjack. If the variance is an issue, I would just bet less in blackjack.
Quote: WizardI show Spanish 21 is not nearly as good as blackjack under this promotion. Assuming the player may triple down at any time, I show the player advantage is 0.98%.
Thanks a lot for looking into this.
Do we know how much we are allowed to rescue in Spanish during the promotion? If not, what did you assume for your calculations? If you used half the total wager, and it turns out that we are allowed to rescue our entire triple down (2/3rds or 3/4ths of the total depending on whether it is a triple or quadruple), then does this make the game better than Blackjack?
I was at MS last Thursday, however, and the place was running at about 1/3 capacity, and I doubt they'll bring in extra staff to handle the capacity. That means about 70 BJ tables (at most) will be open for the promotion, so I am thinking that the game will cost the casino about 1 million. I see this definitely as being a loss for the Sun, but not so much that it will make it a killer.
My prediction is that the tables that they DO have open will be full most of the time, and that they will stand to lose quite a but of money, but that they won't shut down the promotion. I should have picked up the official rules while I was there last week -- my bad.
Quote: only1choiceDaar readers;
May I add to my previous post, I live in Ct. 45 minutes from ms. I go every Wed, Thur and Fri nites. On Thursdays when the arena is dark and the arena is dark it is quiet during the day and a graveyard in many areas after 9pm. You seem to believe that a bunch of sharpies will be knocking down the doors to get in and every table will be packed. You are giving the ms regular players to much credit. The last two weeks while in the "players lounge" I have mentioned the promotion to some people I know and some strangers and NO ONE knew what I was talking about. About (15 people) Three floorpersons who supervise 2-4 bj tables knew very little about it. In my previous post one other floorperson had a lot to say! I also spoke to 3 different pit bosses on different days and they considered it a minor promotion.
Also please keep in mind they will not be handing out money like candy! Think about the times you had an unlucky streak of doubledowns losses. You will need a counters bankroll for down swings.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND MONEY IN YOUR POCKET ALWAYS!
Against my better judgement I will be at MS at 5:30 AM. If every table is not packed the Wizard and I will have a long talk. If he is correct I will send a letter of apology.
TO JCC1: I apologize to you for the fact that even though I am a regular player I would not be able to give you an accurate count of tables. Also like I said and repeated by BOYMIMBO on Thursdays they do not operate at full capacity. In fact Holidays and weekends are the only true full capacity days. I would like to give you my best guess. Mohegansun is devided into 3 theme casinos: Casino of the Earth, Casino of the Wind and Casino of the sky.
REMEMBER I know every inch of that place but I never counted tables!
Earth casino About(36) bj tables $10-15 about (4) span 21
(16) bj tables $5 (BJ 6/5)!!
(16) bj tables $50 no mid shoe entry
Wind casino About(30) bj tables $10-15 about(6)span 21
Sky casinso About(30) bj tables $100 no mid shoe entry
About(14) bj $10-15 (6) span 21
NO smoking area (15 bj 10-15 (6) span 21
There are other playing areas that are never open on Thursdays.
Hope this helps!
SEE YOU AT MOHEGANSUN, MONEY IN YOUR POCKETS, ALWAYS
It would be quite disappointing if they introduced 6/5 there.
Quote: martinetJust came from MS to play vp double points Tues. Asked a pit boss how the BJ limit worked. He explained that if you were betting $1,000 per hand you could double plus bet $500 extra, so if you bet "only" $500 per hand you could triple down w/o restriction. If these are indeed the limitations, its good for the big bettors.
Thanks. If this is true, that would be betting an extra 1.5x your ante on the additional bet. That would result in a player edge of 0.62%. However, it would be applied to a larger base bet of $1,000, so the expected win per hand would be $1,000 × 0.0062 = $6.20. Betting $250 a hand, and doing a full triple, the profit per hand is $250 × 0.0159 = $3.98 per hand.
I tend to think the pit boss (they prefer to be called floormen now) was mistaken. If I were the MS I would make the rule that the max additional bet would be min(2i,i+250), where i is the initial bet. That way players could get the full triple up to initial bets of $250, and a normal double on wagers above that.
Quote: Wizard
I tend to think the pit boss (they prefer to be called floormen now) was mistaken. If I were the MS I would make the rule that the max additional bet would be min(2i,i+250), where i is the initial bet. That way players could get the full triple up to initial bets of $250, and a normal double on wagers above that.
I'm pretty sure this was erroneous as well. I was specifically told that the maximum triple-down bet was $500, and $250 would be the maximum base bet.
How much would it help the player just to do a perfect insurance count (start -4 per deck, -2 per ten, +1 everything else, insurance for any positive count)?
How much would it add to the player advantage for this promotion?
What would a simple A-5 count do for the player (assuming he is already betting $250 or $500 every hand to maximize his advantage from the triple down rule)? This may be a stupid question, I can't remember if there are any strategy changes that come with the A-5. But maybe there's a certain A-5 count where, even with the triple down promotion, the player hits negative EV?
More for my purposes: if I'm going to be in Vegas but won't be quite ready for real counting/spreading, but can do the insurance count mentioned above, flat-betting, can it make me an advantage player? At least for the single deck .18% house edge games at El Cortez and 4 Queens? What about for the .35% house edge double deck at a bunch of places?
Is this better or worse than the A-5 count?
Quote: WizardI tend to think the pit boss (they prefer to be called floormen now) was mistaken. If I were the MS I would make the rule that the max additional bet would be min(2i,i+250), where i is the initial bet. That way players could get the full triple up to initial bets of $250, and a normal double on wagers above that.
If you were the MS you wouldn't offer this promotion at all.
Quote: jcc1If you were the MS you wouldn't offer this promotion at all.
You're darn tootin' I would have stopped this before it started if I was anywhere in the decision making chain there. However, now that they screwed up, I think they should grit their teeth, and come up with answers to questions that everyone is going is asking, and will be asking on the big day.
Quote: tacopizzaThis is a question that relates both to this promotion and to BJ in general...
I mean no disrespect, those are perfectly valid questions. However, the benefit of counting will be miniscule compared to advantage just flat betting. Just forget about counting, and memorize the tripling strategy. If I were doing this I'd be worried about what hour to show up to ensure a seat (I'm thinking like 4 AM), and how to stay fed and awake for over 24 hours.
About counting in Vegas, let's make that a separate thread.
I am of the opinion that most players will still be clueless, betting the minimum, and doubling down "for less". We shall see :)
Quote: duanedibley
I am of the opinion that most players will still be clueless, betting the minimum, and doubling down "for less". We shall see :)
I predict that late-arriving skilled players will be buying the seats of small bettors. Then again, anything could happen. We indeed shall see.
I haven't had a chance to do much work on this, so I can't give any guarantees. But you should notice your indices agree pretty well with Wizard's Basic Strategy, except for the soft 20's.
Good luck!
Quote: dlevinelawAre you sure that the $5 tables are 6/5? The last few times I went (a few months back), they were in the promotional $5 game pit, but still carried 3/2, DAS, Surrender, but with H17 instead of S17 like the rest of the casino.
It would be quite disappointing if they introduced 6/5 there.
3:2 BJ pay and H17 is what was offered earlier this year when I visited. I expect the H17 would change the strategy for ace up to surrender for H15, H17 and 8,8. I think the rest of the triple-down strategy would remain as posted, but I'm just a tadpole. Can any of you sharks confirm this reasoning?
Another bonus - they are having auditions for American's Top Model down the street at MGM Grand at 10am. It is tough to leave the tables, but for a nice break it could be worth it. Plus my guess is they will be hanging out tonight there.
I am not sure how crowded it will be - I tend to disagree that there will be a line for seats at 6am on a summer Thursday morning. Yes, I will be there, along with a crew. But there is still some volatility here. And that leads me to my question...
QUESTION: If one were to play the full 24 hours, perfect tripling strategy, 60 hands/hour, what are the chances of leaving down Friday morning? I believe it to be around 25%.
