If you know an ace is coming up somewhere in the next 8 cards, how would you play?

Has any research been done on the advantage of knowing the rough position of an ace? I'm guessing some of the shuffle tracking/ace sequencing literature might mention it.

If you know an ace is coming up in the next eight cards (possibly to the dealer), would you increase your bet until you see the ace come out? How much would you increase it by

Edit: Did some math

Quote: Donuts

Has any research been done on the advantage of knowing the rough position of an ace? I'm guessing some of the shuffle tracking/ace sequencing literature might mention it.

If you know an ace is coming up in the next eight cards (possibly to the dealer), would you increase your bet until you see the ace come out? How much would you increase it by?

Table max.

Quote: Donuts

Has any research been done on the advantage of knowing the rough position of an ace? I'm guessing some of the shuffle tracking/ace sequencing literature might mention it.

If you know an ace is coming up in the next eight cards (possibly to the dealer), would you increase your bet until you see the ace come out? How much would you increase it by?

If there's only 5 or 6 player spots, then you might not be able to capture it by playing all the spots. I would play another round heads up or 3 hands. If you burn the ace, oh well, if you don't then you know you can capture it on the following hand.

Say you believe the ace is within the next 5 cards now. Bet all 6 spots (in case you're off) table max. The EV you're losing on 5 spots is just basic strategy. The EV you gain from giving an ace to a max bet hand is 51%.

Example:
5 hands of $2000 each... your EV, playing basic strategy at -.5% on these 5 hands = -$50. So you plan to lose $50 on these 5 hands if you do this situation over and over until you die.

Now the money hand... $2000 w/ 51% advantage. Your EV on this hand = $1020.

So weigh the risk vs reward. You're giving up $50 in EV to make $1020 in EV... sounds pretty profitable to me =).

If the A goes to the dealer, it's like a -40% edge

It's 51% if you get it

So if it's a full table and someone's guaranteed to get an ace (including the dealer), you have a pretty healthy advantage.

So based on my math it makes sense to spread to as many hands as possible if you're certain an ace is coming out - You'd need to adjust your bet size to account for the variance, didn't do those calculations though.

About 35 years ago I picked up a copy of "Blackjack as a Business" by L.R. Its apropo to this...
If 1/2 of a single deck of cards have passed, and there are 3 Aces remaining, one would double the wager.

Real world with 6 decks (24 Aces), one needs a condition of remaining cards/Aces = 8. Consider how rare that is.
The chances are late in the shoe, the condition is more likely.

If AceofSpades was at the table I would have to say the dealer would be making another blackjack in those next 8 hands. Probably her 14th of the shoe....

Quote: Baccaratfrom79

If AceofSpades was at the table I would have to say the dealer would be making another blackjack in those next 8 hands. Probably her 14th of the shoe....

You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory and the fact that we only see his ranting when that kind of stuff happens.

If nothing out of the ordinary happens then nothing's really posted about it (just a win/loss update). The ranting only happens when he gets a really crappy shoe.

I already ordered him some great shoes at The Tropicana! I called someone and they said, no problem. It's arranged!

Quote: sc15

You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory

You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory... You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory...

Quote: sc15

You gotta keep in mind though that it's selective memory and the fact that we only see his ranting when that kind of stuff happens.

If nothing out of the ordinary happens then nothing's really posted about it (just a win/loss update). The ranting only happens when he gets a really crappy shoe.

Well, of course I post about the outliers - who wants to read about a shoe that was uneventful?

Quote: aceofspades

Well, of course I post about the outliers - who wants to read about a shoe that was uneventful?

There are only two kind of shoes (at least when I played that game) those that are eventful and great and those that are eventful in the worst ways.

Quote: aceofspades

Well, of course I post about the outliers - who wants to read about a shoe that was uneventful?

Just saying, that's why it seems like every shoe is eventful. Those are the only ones that are talked about.