Need a good simulation program to evaluate betting strategy(s)
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The results for 100,000 hands, right now winnings stand at $0.85 per hand average, though it is volatile to say the least. This on a $10 min/ $1000 max table, dealer hit soft seventeen, common rules, no surrender. The trend is not linear but generally upward.
Any suggestions of sourcing for a close to "off the shelf" program would be appreciated. No card counting necessary. Thanks as always! The Feathered One
100k hands is a very very small sample size I sayQuote: TwoFeathersATLThe results for 100,000 hands <snip>
My 1 million adopted blind squirrels playing BS Blackjack
I would expect abouts 47,000 to still be winning (1 in 21) after playing only 100k hands
from the expected value and standard deviation of that, btw
oh,
beating the game
yes!
100 million is a better start to a BJ sample size
in my opinion that is
keep on dealing
have fun
should be easy to find someone to code this for you
money talks
but maybe your system is nothing new and this has been done before
by other(s)
good luck and thank you for sharing
Sally
Don't understand the blind squirrel joke, was that me looking for my nuts?
47,000 was your expectation? The overall balance is 85,600 at the moment, but again it is still a small sampling.
I suspect the system is nothing new, I am not exactly a mental giant or anything. I did come up with it all by myself ( he said smugly), or at least I think I did (doubt setting in). I tried something weird, didn't work (real tables) decided to bet on the opposite (jury still out).
Tired of dealing by hand, 500-1000 hands a day in my 'spare time', again tedious.
Luck is one of those things that balances out, sometimes it's good, sometimes it's not, streaks in the game balance out too, even in 100,000 hands the house wins just about exactly the correct percentage of hands expected based on the rules in play, and a reasonably consistant play by 'generally agreed upon basic card strategy' . I trust the Wizard on this, hope he's not part of a worldwide conspiracy to part me from my money.
feathers
I realize I didn't understand your expected 47,000 winners comment, don't have the lingo down that you guys/gals talk in when you make fun of others and show off your smarts. I believe in your smarts, at least as a group.
Still hoping someone chimes in with a reasonably priced, and powerful, simulation program that I'm bright enough to be able to fill in the appropriate parameters and let it run a few million hands. That's a tall order, I ain't all that smart ;-)
THX to all, even Sally. Feathers
I assume that she meant if 1 million blind squirrels played 100k hands of BJ, 47,000 of them would be winners due to luck/variance.Quote: TwoFeathersATLAnd whoopee for me! Got a response from MustangSally. I like that song. My first car was a 68 coupe 3 speed (used). My second was a brand spanking new 73 Grande automatic. Paid for it with my own earned income, I was, what, 18?
I realize I didn't understand your expected 47,000 winners comment, don't have the lingo down that you guys/gals talk in when you make fun of others and show off your smarts. I believe in your smarts, at least as a group.
Still hoping someone chimes in with a reasonably priced, and powerful, simulation program that I'm bright enough to be able to fill in the appropriate parameters and let it run a few million hands. That's a tall order, I ain't all that smart ;-)
THX to all, even Sally. Feathers
You won, you = blind squirrel who found nuts.
Quote: AxelWolfI assume that she meant if 1 million blind squirrels played 100k hands of BJ, 47,000 of them would be winners due to luck/variance.
You won, you = blind squirrel who found nuts.
Sweet! Axel/Wolf has joined in, another respected opinion. I = squirrel w/nuts after 100,000 hands (blind squirrel I think). Does that mean if I play another 100,000 hands I will lose all my Fing nuts or what is the probability that, or what is the number of blind squirrels that will still have some nuts left? This is getting fun, OK..only a little fun....
Still looking for something reasonably close to "off the shelf software program" that will allow larger simulations.
I assume that many (most?) don't believe I really just dealt myself 100,000 hands one on one against an imaginary house. If I read you had done that I would not believe you. Part of the rational behind that statement is I know what a pain in the asksally that process is. But I'm a weird bird, can't help it, I think it's a genetic thing. How do I post a picture of my little set-up to this thread? I already took the picture, the little spiral bound notebook is open to pages 116 and 117. Each line on each page represents a shuffle (about 50 hands per shuffle, about 20 lines, or 1000 hands per page. Some of the notes that track what happened during each shuffle are obscured. The dates and running bankroll totals are visible however, wasn't a great 2000 hands. Started at 46,000 and ended at 43,000. Yes, it went down, happens regularly, but page after page the total trends upward for remaining bankroll that started at zero. $10 table.
Feahters
Then, do a simple if/then tree for all the situations you want to consider.
THX though! feathers
Quote: TwoFeathersATLInteresting response, but doesn't tell me where to go to get the how to.
THX though! feathers
where to find a program like this? I have no clue where because I have no need to simulate betting systems.
I would like to point out that if you hand played and logged 100k hands, you can toss that data out. The chances you made mistakes are high. No matter how accurate you think you are.
THX for listening... 2F
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7h5xew1gede29zb/coinflip.xlsx?dl=0
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/
This is the Q&D way to simulate many games, not just blackjack. It's trivial to code a blackjack simulation in Excel with a Lookup table using this method and =rand().
On the other hand, the OP's system appears to be yet another completely worthless betting system (yacwbs), which belongs in the "betting systems" forum, one that I personally block so as to not get annoyed at such a waste of good electrons.
Quote: teliotYou don't need to code the game of blackjack to write a blackjack simulator. Just use the distribution data from Mike's appendix #4. Generate a random number in the range [0,1) and then select the player's outcome for eachhand using the cumulative distribution.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/
This is the Q&D way to simulate many games, not just blackjack. It's trivial to code a blackjack simulation in Excel with a Lookup table using this method and =rand().
On the other hand, the OP's system appears to be yet another completely worthless betting system (yacwbs), which belongs in the "betting systems" forum, one that I personally block so as to not get annoyed at such a waste of good electrons.
Why you still need a simulation if you already have the distribution data ?
Exactly. The OP's final result = (H/A) x (total wagers). But, he asked for a simulation so I advised him on an easy way to do it. A simulation could help him assess the "total wagers" part.Quote: ssho88Why you still need a simulation if you already have the distribution data ?
How are you doing against the UR Way Egalite?
+99Quote: teliot
On the other hand, the OP's system appears to be yet another completely worthless betting system (yacwbs), which belongs in the "betting systems" forum, one that I personally block so as to not get annoyed at such a waste of good electrons.
It amazes me how much time and effort people put into trying to figure out systems that anyone with a very minimum understanding of math can realize its a wast of time. They are trying to turn lead into gold.
Meanwhile there's legitimate opportunities that have legitimate math and logic to back it up.
Quote: teliotExactly. The OP's final result = (H/A) x (total wagers). But, he asked for a simulation so I advised him on an easy way to do it. A simulation could help him assess the "total wagers" part.
How are you doing against the UR Way Egalite?
UR Way Egalite? Aha ! The party is still on, would you like to join us ?
Quote: AxelWolf+99
It amazes me how much time and effort people put into trying to figure out systems that anyone with a very minimum understanding of math can realize its a wast of time. They are trying to turn lead into gold.
Meanwhile there's legitimate opportunities that have legitimate math and logic to back it up.
While all betting systems will lose in the long run, but I disagree with the impression that they are all "waste of time". Many betting systems are proven to be powerful for short term gains, and they come with very nice comp without the risk of getting yourself barred. For example: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Betting_Systems_Oscars_Blackjack_System.htm
After all, 100 million hands will take 1000 years to play assuming 1000 hours per year and 100 hands per hour, so a safe betting system is valuable for a causal gambler who is just looking to have some fun.
Quote: TwoFeathersATL
Any suggestions of sourcing for a close to "off the shelf" program would be appreciated. No card counting necessary. Thanks as always! The Feathered One
Have you checked the QFIT software products? The products aren't just for card counters. CVData might fit the bill.
QFIT
You can also E-mail Norm Wattenberger through the site for advice.
http://www.theblackjacksimulator.com/index.htm
he posted here before and looks to have been updating his software
maybe he is game
yes yesQuote: TwoFeathersATLI = squirrel w/nuts after 100,000 hands (blind squirrel I think).
Here are some numbers I have
I really think you need at least 1 million rounds played, not 100 million
unless your system is really that clever ;)
expected value and standard deviation over N hands played in me Excel
1 in 21 shot of being lucky (in the green)
after 1 million hands played, now just a 1 in 14,124,107.48
chance of being lucky
you feel lucky with your system?
I see no green
tiny tiny tiny
the chance of being even or ahead after 200k hands drops down to 1 in 107.61Quote: TwoFeathersATLDoes that mean if I play another 100,000 hands I will lose all my Fing nuts or what is the probability that, or what is the number of blind squirrels that will still have some nuts left?
so, you may still have some nuts left over
I say, do not mess with the squirrels
they can be nasty critters at any time
Betting Systems
Sally
Quote: TankoHave you checked the QFIT software products? The products aren't just for card counters. CVData might fit the bill.
QFIT
You can also E-mail Norm Wattenberger through the site for advice.
Tanko, I looked over CVData and CV/CX, lots of really good stuff, but it does state that Betting systems that do not take into account seen cards will not work, unquote.
I'll still reach out to them, perhaps they have workaround suggestions and/or clarification.
I will also check out he other suggestions that have been presented.
Thanks All! squirrelly feathers
I've done all I can do to tell them about you and your friends. What more can I do from the casino side? You are teaching them a good lesson, though they seem extraordinarily slow to learn it.Quote: ssho88UR Way Egalite? Aha ! The party is still on, would you like to join us ?
Quote: teliotI've done all I can do to tell them about you and your friends. What more can I do from the casino side? You are teaching them a good lesson, though they seem extraordinarily slow to learn it.
Are you telling me that you already told them there are card counters beating their own game ?
Marijuana is probably safe and valuable for a causal druger who is just looking to have some fun. Would you recommend it to your kids? Gateway drug comes to mind. Betting systems are the gateway to gambling addictions and gambling obsessions. I'm just trying to save the world 1 system bettor at a time (not really, the more addicts the better it is for me)Quote: NumpkinWhile all betting systems will lose in the long run, but I disagree with the impression that they are all "waste of time". Many betting systems are proven to be powerful for short term gains, and they come with very nice comp without the risk of getting yourself barred. For example: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Betting_Systems_Oscars_Blackjack_System.htm
After all, 100 million hands will take 1000 years to play assuming 1000 hours per year and 100 hands per hour, so a safe betting system is valuable for a causal gambler who is just looking to have some fun.
I agree that some systems tend to win small frequently and then lose big. I'm concerned when people say "I'm not playing in the long run, ill never play 100 million hands, im here just for this weekend" They may hit a "long run losing streak" the first time they play. Your Mr. Oscar hit his losing long run way before 100 million hands.
I think its a wast of time to spend a ton of time searching for and simulating betting systems. Some People are obsessed with them and even think you have an advantage.
If it's fun for them and they realize it's negative EV then go for it. But there's no need to spend tons of time (especially dealing yourself hundreds of thousands of hands)
when as you have proven, you can find a betting system with a full explanations, examples, simulations and even mathematics in about 30 seconds.
Obviously if you have a +EV situation like free play chips or a online casino bonus practically and betting system will do.
I have used variations of marty running free play, free chips, wagering requirements online and have done well. I have no way of knowing if flat betting or using other systems would've done worse or better overall, I can just speculate.
tiny tiny tiny
the chance of being even or ahead after 200k hands drops down to 1 in 107.61
so, you may still have some nuts left over
I say, do not mess with the squirrels
they can be nasty critters at any time
Betting Systems
Sally
Thank you so much MustangSally! Made me sit down and think, I hate to do that, it makes my head hurt. But I ran into one those rare 'AHA Phenomenon' moments. It may take years ( my wife doesn't let me out of the house much ) but eventually this thread will have a continuation from me. I may have to quit my current ID as TwoFeathersAtl and re-join as Two Squirrels ( short for, "two squirrels walked into a bar"). That ID in your honor of course ;-)
That doesn't end the thread for now however. Still want to run the simulation and will gladly appreciate any other suggestions as to an off the shelf product. Short of that, I now realize I can write a series of if/then statements that fully describe the betting strategy without revealing the actual strategy, makes it longer but will probably run just about as quick as quick. Think 4 times as many if/then statements as were really necessary, but still works out the same. That said, yep I can get it coded without having to shoot anyone.
In honor of all the old fans, Mustang Feathers
Yes thanks Sally, only you could've helped him (imagine that) he's even starting to sound like you.Quote: TwoFeathersATL
Thank you so much MustangSally! Made me sit down and think, I hate to do that, it makes my head hurt. But I ran into one those rare 'AHA Phenomenon' moments. It may take years ( my wife doesn't let me out of the house much ) but eventually this thread will have a continuation from me. I may have to quit my current ID as TwoFeathersAtl and re-join as Two Squirrels ( short for, "two squirrels walked into a bar"). That ID in your honor of course ;-)
That doesn't end the thread for now however. Still want to run the simulation and will gladly appreciate any other suggestions as to an off the shelf product. Short of that, I now realize I can write a series of if/then statements that fully describe the betting strategy without revealing the actual strategy, makes it longer but will probably run just about as quick as quick. Think 4 times as many if/then statements as were really necessary, but still works out the same. That said, yep I can get it coded without having to shoot anyone.
In honor of all the old fans, Mustang Feathers
Quote: AxelWolfYes thanks Sally, only you could've helped him (imagine that) he's even starting to sound like you.
Axel/Wolf, that sounds a bit sarcastic, is that how you meant to sound? two Squirrels
Of course I did, almost two years ago. Did you not read these?Quote: ssho88Are you telling me that you already told them there are card counters beating their own game ?
http://apheat.net/2013/07/19/card-counting-the-ur-way-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
http://apheat.net/2013/10/30/card-counting-the-super-pay-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
Quote: teliotOf course I did, almost two years ago. Did you not read these?
http://apheat.net/2013/07/19/card-counting-the-ur-way-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
http://apheat.net/2013/10/30/card-counting-the-super-pay-egalite-baccarat-side-bet/
You action will only cause these casinos earn less from the normal casino patrons. So, do you know why they are not listening to you?
Yes, of course. Hijacking a thread is never polite.Quote: TwoFeathersATLHas my thread been stolen? baccarat, what is that? Go start your own thread buddies. Buddies, that brings up twisted and immoral pictures in my mind. I don't want to go there. Can you start your own thread, or PM each other? I don't run this gig but, 'I'm just saying". All in good fun, play hard, play to win.... Damn, I forgot how to sign off.... Blind squirrel?
As for your use of "blind squirrel" that is a term that advantage players use when they have so much information that they don't even need to look at their own cards to beat the game. For example (and I may have the exact strategy wrong), if you happen to see all three dealer cards at Three Card Poker, then you don't need to look at your own cards to beat the game. Simply make a "Play" bet if the dealer has less than a pair of 4's, otherwise fold. The use of "blind squirrel" for non-advantage play seems inappropriate, as there is no such thing as a "nut" in a losing game. There is nothing to find.
As for your yacwbs, Norm Wattenberger (www.qfit.com) very aptly used the metaphor of a weight-loss diet consisting entirely of jelly doughnuts:
- Eat one jelly doughnut the first day.
- If you lose weight by the next day, then eat one jelly doughnut again. Otherwise, eat two jelly doughnuts.
- Each day that you fail to lose weight, eat twice as many doughnuts as the previous day.
- When you finally lose weight (which will almost certainly happen, but not for a good reason), start with one doughnut again.
Quote: AxelWolfMarijuana is probably safe and valuable for a causal druger who is just looking to have some fun. Would you recommend it to your kids? Gateway drug comes to mind. Betting systems are the gateway to gambling addictions and gambling obsessions. I'm just trying to save the world 1 system bettor at a time (not really, the more addicts the better it is for me)
Whoa! Just ran into this post from Axel/Wolf. Didn't hit the 'refresh' thingy often enough I guess. I truly respect Axel/Wolf opinions. I will have to deal with this later as the alarms are going off and I have to go deal with them first. feathersYouuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
The guys are wrong.
There is correlation with respect to previous hand Win/Lose.
I think the corrrelation is after a Loss for a Win.
And I am pretty sure you can increase the odds in BJ using a Betting system.
For a game say with an EV of -0.50%, you can Increase the Ev to -0,49%, maybe even -0,48%.
I think CVDTA can do the sim that you want.
I think there are pararameters for Camo that can be set like Increase Bet after a Win.
And I am pretty sure after you do all your Sims, you can back here and say to all, that see I have the proof that my system works.
The EV has increase by 0.03%.
I started to type more, actually did and then backspaced thru it to erase it. What if all the card counters in the world just simply mis-stated the question before they answered it?
Lead to gold, 2 squirrels, ya---,?, ... Still here. And still in the Nations, I'm Two Feathers.
Quote: TwoFeathersATLSorry. Just ungulate fortification inside the security perimeters. Was pretty cool to watch though. Actually was pretty hot to watch, I need a shower. I better take a break now before the Wiz gets mad at me, that's about he last thing I want. The last thing I want is to lose the whole wad. BTW another 10,000 hands,,the overall is up, alternative 4 is screaming for attention. The deer are obviously enjoying each other, and the jury is still out. Actually the jury came in a long time ago, but were they right?
I started to type more, actually did and then backspaced thru it to erase it. What if all the card counters in the world just simply mis-stated the question before they answered it?
Lead to gold, 2 squirrels, ya---,?, ... Still here. And still in the Nations, I'm Two Feathers.
That's funny, really funny. I type fornification and the auto speller thing types fortification, that while I grab a gun and investigate why the perimeter alarms are activated. I'm still here, I'm still Two Feathers. The alarms are reset...
Play hard, play to win. 2F
Quote: teliotYou don't need to code the game of blackjack to write a blackjack simulator. Just use the distribution data from Mike's appendix #4. Generate a random number in the range [0,1) and then select the player's outcome for eachhand using the cumulative distribution.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/
This is the Q&D way to simulate many games, not just blackjack. It's trivial to code a blackjack simulation in Excel with a Lookup table using this method and =rand().
On the other hand, the OP's system appears to be yet another completely worthless betting system (yacwbs), which belongs in the "betting systems" forum, one that I personally block so as to not get annoyed at such a waste of good electrons.
Quote: ronnylTake a look at: http://wildcard.tips
This seems to be a legitimate link to a blackjack app, not an ad, so I'm leaving it in place. Thanks for attempting to help, ronnyl, and welcome.
