Flat results after ~300 hours

My BJ results have severely stagnated over the past 4 or so months. I've experienced swings of +/- 15k, sometimes just days apart, but I'm at the same point now as I was in October and can't seem to breach this impasse. Any thoughts on how to change playing style, unit size, aggressiveness? Or just power through?

If you have read my Vegas TR's, my wins and losses alternate - although last trip was pretty much break even - I think it is just the nature of blackjack - time to power through it!

Quote: arcticfun

My BJ results have severely stagnated over the past 4 or so months. I've experienced swings of +/- 15k, sometimes just days apart, but I'm at the same point now as I was in October and can't seem to breach this impasse. Any thoughts on how to change playing style, unit size, aggressiveness? Or just power through?

I always have thoughts on how to improve and it's the very rare person that would need no improvement. We would have to know every minute detail of your game to make any suggestion at all. If you're willing to post that you may be surprised to find that there was something right under your nose or you may be one of those rare persons. There's only one way to find out.

The last four months are not worth giving a second thought to. There are plenty of experienced counters that would gladly trade their last four months for yours.

Quote: 1BB

I always have thoughts on how to improve and it's the very rare person that would need no improvement...

I constantly find there's always something new to learn. I couldn't agree more with this statement.

Quote: arcticfun

My BJ results have severely stagnated over the past 4 or so months. I've experienced swings of +/- 15k, sometimes just days apart, but I'm at the same point now as I was in October and can't seem to breach this impasse. Any thoughts on how to change playing style, unit size, aggressiveness? Or just power through?

As you know blackjack comes with variance. The ups, the downs, etc. So long as you've done your math and understand the EV you generate with each session, you needn't 'change' your style, unit, spread, etc. Now, what I would suggest though is optimizing your play. After doing the math and understanding your EV, you know you have a winning game. So what now? Now look at tweaking things for getting every dollar worth of EV you can from the game. Re-visit your spread. Make sure at all times it falls within your bankroll and ROR requirements. But often, people don't see the little things they can tweak.

For example... There was another thread about someone whom wanted to run a 1-3 spread blacks... making 'some' money but generate nice comps. He was breaking out his big bet at TC +4. When reviewing the frequencies, I noticed that if you bet the same amount on TC +4 and TC +3, you actually make more money from TC +3 because it occurs more frequently (even though you have a bigger advantage at TC +4). So he optimized his spread by making his TC +4 bet at TC +3, adding a lot of EV to his game with one simple switch. This is something I would recommend you do as well. Check your spread/frequencies. Play with it and see if you can't get a little more EV, without drawing too much heat (max bet TC +2 lol).

General List of Optimization:
1) Improve known weaknesses. We all know what we 'mostly remember' and what we have down cold. If you have I18 + Fab4, perhaps add a few more indexes that occur more frequently, even though they don't give the biggest boost to EV. Or, if you feel you've ever made a mistake, drill the I18 + surrender indexes again. It can never hurt to study! Every counter knows what they're weakest in. Break your game in to categories (spread, bankroll management, indexes, count, etc, etc,) and pick the ones you believe you're weakest in (even if it's a 9 out of 10). Make everything a 10 out of 10!

2) Rework your spread. As shown above, looking at the TC frequencies was a tip off for me at one point. Before that, I just thought "TC +4 is better than TC +3 because I have a bigger advantage" even though this logic is flawed. In the end you might even find your spread is just fine, and make no changes to it... but it never hurts to revisit it, check it, and ensure it's optimized.

3) Believe. You must believe in not only the math, but yourself. Test yourself. Have others test you. Prove to yourself you have a winning game... Then after you do, BELIEVE IT. Regardless of your ups or downs that come naturally with the game. You might be stuck at "break even" for a long time, but the simple math of the game PROVES after X hands, you'll be up X amount +- your SD. It will come to a point where the luck is removed, and you will make around your EV!

I love that you made this thread. Every single counter alive should constantly be re-evaluating their game, from every angle. It's what keeps us sharp. It's what helps us identify and attack new advantages optimally. Knowing our game inside and out not only helps us in these ways, but helps us believe we have a winning game not because we think we do, but because we know we do. We will all hit the slumps. We will all question our play/game/etc... and we should from time to time.

Study, train, practice, and believe =).

Quote: Romes

2) Rework your spread. As shown above, looking at the TC frequencies was a tip off for me at one point. Before that, I just thought "TC +4 is better than TC +3 because I have a bigger advantage" even though this logic is flawed. In the end you might even find your spread is just fine, and make no changes to it... but it never hurts to revisit it, check it, and ensure it's optimized.
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Betting more at any count where the player has an advantage will increase EV, this isn't unique to TC3/4.

Example:

If I play at a $25 table and start betting $800 a hand immediately at TC 2+, the EV will be MUCH higher than playing at the same table and spreading $100-$800 to TC 9.

The first spread has significantly higher variance however. I'm always cautious playing off of just EV. CE seems more relevant.

Quote: Donuts

Quote: Romes

2) Rework your spread. As shown above, looking at the TC frequencies was a tip off for me at one point. Before that, I just thought "TC +4 is better than TC +3 because I have a bigger advantage" even though this logic is flawed. In the end you might even find your spread is just fine, and make no changes to it... but it never hurts to revisit it, check it, and ensure it's optimized.
.

Betting more at any count where the player has an advantage will increase EV, this isn't unique to TC3/4.

Example:

If I play at a $25 table and start betting $800 a hand immediately at TC 2+, the EV will be MUCH higher than playing at the same table and spreading $100-$800 to TC 9.

The first spread has significantly higher variance however. I'm always cautious playing off of just EV. CE seems more relevant.

Hence why I said later you can't just max bet TC +2, for cover... variance... etc. I was just pointing out something that's easy to miss if someone "ramps" their bets in a semi ordered fashion: TC +2 = 2x, TC +3 = 4x, TC +4 = 6x, etc, etc. Everyone knows you bet more when you have 'any' advantage you win more (in the long run and forgetting variance). However, I'd be willing to bet few people know that TC +3 is more profitable than TC +4 (because of its frequency). It's something that's easily overlooked by a few people on the forum already. "But I have a bigger advantage at TC +4!"