Card counting at 1% BR as max bet

Wanted to ask all the "old timers" around here a quick question. If you wong in at TC 6+ running your max bet as long as TC > 6 of 1% your max bank roll (In this case 10,000) how would you prefer your hands? I thought in theory if you count / ace track it helps you to determine the bust value of dealer face card and odds of an upcoming BJ. I would think at 1% or 100$ you would want to play it across multiple hands to "catch" the cards. Am I wrong in this assumption? I have played single hand 1% as max bet up until now and am just wondering. Is 1 hand at 1% MB best? Or 1% / x hands dispersed amongst the table better? or just straight up 1% MB on several hands better?

A) $100 X 1
B) $25 x 4
C) $100 x 4

Ive also heard alot of people say double kelly and heard it explained as 75% MB x 2? is that the most efficient?

D) $75 x 2 (75% MB x 2)

Every time I play I feel like everyone has their own opinions but I am looking for which answer is backed up by actual data and testing?

I do understand that 1% BR as MB was a ball park back in the day and now days we can see depending on the game it comes to around a ~5% RoR but its a slight risk for a far better future so lets just ignore that for now ;]

What count are you using? Or are you shuffle tracking?

1x100 or 2x75 is the most efficient.

4x25 cuts into your EV since you're eating cards (means less rounds).
4x100 is higher risk because of covariance (all hands played against the same dealer's hand at the same time).

Quote: RS

What count are you using? Or are you shuffle tracking?

1x100 or 2x75 is the most efficient.

4x25 cuts into your EV since you're eating cards (means less rounds).
4x100 is higher risk because of covariance (all hands played against the same dealer's hand at the same time).

This is pretty much accurate. I just wanted to add that when you mention you're looking for the one answer backed by data/facts, that it's not that simple. It's really up to you, the level of variance you want to potentially deal with, etc. It also depends on where you're at in the deal with respect to the cut card, how many decks you're playing, etc.

There's always been the debate that you shouldn't spread to more than 1 hand in a great count because you could get less rounds. I've made the counter argument that 1) I'm not getting less hands if I play more than 1 now, and 2) I'd rather get my big bets out now while I KNOW the count is good, rather than a few hands later when it might not be so good. To me, as I said before, this both depends on the situation and is up to the player (in my opinion). Another quick example of this is if you know the cut card is coming out the next round... At this point I believe you should absolutely play more than one hand, as it's another hand in a positive count that you would not normally receive since the cut card would come out this round. In your example above (MB being $100), I would indeed either play 1 hand of $100, or two hands of $75 (or $80 personally, I like even numbered blackjacks... but that might be an OCD thing lol). Do note however that 2x75 does not equal double kelly, and as RS mentioned there's co-variance with each hand you add. I believe both Wong and Revere discuss playing more than 1 hand in their books, and it's mentioned that players should stick to 2 hands when spreading... but this is of course, their opinion =).

To unfortunately repeat myself, again, it's up to you (so long as you're playing within your BR).

p.s. If all you're doing is wonging, I would absolutely recommend max betting $100 (or 2x$75) at TC +4 or greater. In almost any average or better game you have a sufficient advantage (over 1%, and hopefully over 1.5% if you're not playing crappy games).

Quote: Romes

This is pretty much accurate. I just wanted to add that when you mention you're looking for the one answer backed by data/facts, that it's not that simple. It's really up to you, the level of variance you want to potentially deal with, etc. It also depends on where you're at in the deal with respect to the cut card, how many decks you're playing, etc.

There's always been the debate that you shouldn't spread to more than 1 hand in a great count because you could get less rounds. I've made the counter argument that 1) I'm not getting less hands if I play more than 1 now, and 2) I'd rather get my big bets out now while I KNOW the count is good, rather than a few hands later when it might not be so good. To me, as I said before, this both depends on the situation and is up to the player (in my opinion). Another quick example of this is if you know the cut card is coming out the next round... At this point I believe you should absolutely play more than one hand, as it's another hand in a positive count that you would not normally receive since the cut card would come out this round. In your example above (MB being $100), I would indeed either play 1 hand of $100, or two hands of $75 (or $80 personally, I like even numbered blackjacks... but that might be an OCD thing lol). Do note however that 2x75 does not equal double kelly, and as RS mentioned there's co-variance with each hand you add. I believe both Wong and Revere discuss playing more than 1 hand in their books, and it's mentioned that players should stick to 2 hands when spreading... but this is of course, their opinion =).

To unfortunately repeat myself, again, it's up to you (so long as you're playing within your BR).

p.s. If all you're doing is wonging, I would absolutely recommend max betting $100 (or 2x$75) at TC +4 or greater. In almost any average or better game you have a sufficient advantage (over 1%, and hopefully over 1.5% if you're not playing crappy games).

Every time Romes answers its like a gift from the gods ;] (Though it seems like he needs to get out more and he lives on here <3 ) Thanks a bunch! Also great vegas log you had read it beginning to end wish I woulda seen you eat em alive but theres always next time!

Quote: RS

What count are you using? Or are you shuffle tracking?

1x100 or 2x75 is the most efficient.

4x25 cuts into your EV since you're eating cards (means less rounds).
4x100 is higher risk because of covariance (all hands played against the same dealer's hand at the same time).

Hi-Lo and do my best to shuffle track because its hand shuffled 6 deck S17 75% pen but sometimes difficult to not draw attention not only back counting but shuffle tracking lol

Quote: avenged43

Every time Romes answers its like a gift from the gods ;] (Though it seems like he needs to get out more and he lives on here <3 ) Thanks a bunch! Also great vegas log you had read it beginning to end wish I woulda seen you eat em alive but theres always next time!

lol I bet others would beg to differ, but thanks. I do go through periods where I'll run through 4-5 different sections and reply... Then not even visit the forums for a weekend/week. I'm glad you enjoyed the Vegas thread, I tried to really make it action packed with a ton of pics/stories. Don't worry, there will be a next time, probably in March =D.

Quote: avenged43

Hi-Lo and do my best to shuffle track because its hand shuffled 6 deck S17 75% pen but sometimes difficult to not draw attention not only back counting but shuffle tracking lol

6D S17 75% pen... Does this game by chance offer surrender? I might have an idea of your location then =p. Anyways, 6D S17 is already a pretty good game (given the other rules are 'normal'... DAS DA2 NO RSA Split to 3 or 4 hands). To be 100% honest, if I was just going to PURELY wong a game like this, I would flat bet my max bet at TC +3. Given the game is decent already, you're over a 1% advantage by TC +3. Plus, you could always drop to $50 for TC +2 or even possibly down to TC +1, as both of them still hold a player advantage and it might save you from 'too much' table hopping.

Let me give you the analogy I gave my friend I'm teaching... When you play blackjack you're trying to get to the end of the rainbow (the long run). At the end of the rainbow there's a pot of gold (your EV). Whenever you place a bet with ANY kind of player advantage (TC +1 even for the game you mentioned), you're adding pennies to that pot of gold. Whenever you place a bet at anything < TC +1, you're taking pennies out of your own pot of gold. Thus, if you're going to wong this game only at TC > 6, as you mentioned in your OP, you're missing out on a LOT of opportunities to put pennies in the pot. Not to mention you're probably standing around A LOT, since TC +6 or greater only comes about approximately 2% of the time. Instead of wasting that time looking suspicious, spend more time adding pennies to the pot =).

Quote: Romes

lol I bet others would beg to differ, but thanks. I do go through periods where I'll run through 4-5 different sections and reply... Then not even visit the forums for a weekend/week. I'm glad you enjoyed the Vegas thread, I tried to really make it action packed with a ton of pics/stories. Don't worry, there will be a next time, probably in March =D.


6D S17 75% pen... Does this game by chance offer surrender? I might have an idea of your location then =p. Anyways, 6D S17 is already a pretty good game (given the other rules are 'normal'... DAS DA2 NO RSA Split to 3 or 4 hands). To be 100% honest, if I was just going to PURELY wong a game like this, I would flat bet my max bet at TC +3. Given the game is decent already, you're over a 1% advantage by TC +3. Plus, you could always drop to $50 for TC +2 or even possibly down to TC +1, as both of them still hold a player advantage and it might save you from 'too much' table hopping.

Let me give you the analogy I gave my friend I'm teaching... When you play blackjack you're trying to get to the end of the rainbow (the long run). At the end of the rainbow there's a pot of gold (your EV). Whenever you place a bet with ANY kind of player advantage (TC +1 even for the game you mentioned), you're adding pennies to that pot of gold. Whenever you place a bet at anything < TC +1, you're taking pennies out of your own pot of gold. Thus, if you're going to wong this game only at TC > 6, as you mentioned in your OP, you're missing out on a LOT of opportunities to put pennies in the pot. Not to mention you're probably standing around A LOT, since TC +6 or greater only comes about approximately 2% of the time. Instead of wasting that time looking suspicious, spend more time adding pennies to the pot =).

But.... I like adding big pennies to my pot :[ Lol jk, I'll probably lower it to TC 3 or 4 honestly I do stand around a little more then I would like ;] There is no surrender option though I wish there was! And the game is... in the south.... and east... LOL

Quote: avenged43

But.... I like adding big pennies to my pot :[ Lol jk, I'll probably lower it to TC 3 or 4 honestly I do stand around a little more then I would like ;] There is no surrender option though I wish there was! And the game is... in the south.... and east... LOL

Ha, we all like the big pennies... This is a subtle issue that most people don't understand though. You really should do it at TC +3, not because you're more of a % advantage, but because the situation occurs more frequently! You should look up the hand frequencies (I explain them and show them for 6D in my A-Z Card Counting Thread)

Example:

TC +3 occurs approximately 3.96 out of every 100 hands, your advantage (assuming .5% HE to start) is approximately 1%. On your 100 bet, your Gain Per Hand = $4.5144.

TC +4 occurs approximately 2.3 hands out of every 100 hands, your advantage (same assumption) is approximately 1.5%. On your $100 bet, your Gain Per Hand = $3.772.

You actually make more money from the TC +3 counts than you do on the TC +4 counts because they occur more frequently and you're betting the same amount on them.

You can get these TC frequencies from either my thread, online, or most blackjack books.

Quote: Romes

Quote: avenged43

But.... I like adding big pennies to my pot :[ Lol jk, I'll probably lower it to TC 3 or 4 honestly I do stand around a little more then I would like ;] There is no surrender option though I wish there was! And the game is... in the south.... and east... LOL

Ha, we all like the big pennies... This is a subtle issue that most people don't understand though. You really should do it at TC +3, not because you're more of a % advantage, but because the situation occurs more frequently! You should look up the hand frequencies (I explain them and show them for 6D in my A-Z Card Counting Thread)

Example:

TC +3 occurs approximately 3.96 out of every 100 hands, your advantage (assuming .5% HE to start) is approximately 1%. On your 100 bet, your Gain Per Hand = $4.5144.

TC +4 occurs approximately 2.3 hands out of every 100 hands, your advantage (same assumption) is approximately 1.5%. On your $100 bet, your Gain Per Hand = $3.772.

You actually make more money from the TC +3 counts than you do on the TC +4 counts because they occur more frequently and you're betting the same amount on them.

You can get these TC frequencies from either my thread, online, or most blackjack books.

!!! Thanks again for giving an actual reasoning behind your methods rather then just stating it blindly! Appreciate all your help !