break even game?
Quote: Bondy3I play recreational blackjack. I visit family in Vegas twice a year or so and I'd like to reduce the house edge to a break even game when I play blackjack. I generally play at mgm properties because I like the atmosphere. I always play rated. If I count using basic hi low and spread 100 to 300 (1 to 3 black chips) could I reduce the house edge to break even? How much spread would I need to give myself a little edge? I don't want to get noticed as a card counter blackjack is just something I enjoy but I'd enjoy it more if I could gI've a little less to the house.
I don't know the answer but I assume you play in the HL room. Does the dealer stay on soft 17 and allow surrender. Here's a link to a thread on this very topic. From what I've read it seems you can break even or get a slight edge with 1-2 spread if you wong out. Factoring in comps? WINNER!!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20201-0-00-blackjack/
Quote: OzzyOsbourneI don't know the answer but I assume you play in the HL room. Does the dealer stay on soft 17 and allow surrender. Here's a link to a thread on this very topic. From what I've read it seems you can break even or get a slight edge with 1-2 spread if you wong out. Factoring in comps? WINNER!!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/20201-0-00-blackjack/
That thread is not the game I play. But I do play in the high limit room. I play:
Double deck
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double after split ok
double on any 2 cards
no resplitting aces
no surrender
Generally about 40 cards are placed after the shuffle card
I think the house edge on this is about 0.29 (as far as I can tell from messing around with some sim software I bought)
For a small spread such as being discussed in this thread, many places won't back you off, at last not right away, especially at higher limits. The first action will be to discontinue giving you comps and points and they may zero out any balances that you have.
This occurs not only will blackjack play where you try to play a break-even game, but it also occurs with VP players.
Quote: Bondy3I play recreational blackjack. I visit family in Vegas twice a year or so and I'd like to reduce the house edge to a break even game when I play blackjack. I generally play at mgm properties because I like the atmosphere. I always play rated. If I count using basic hi low and spread 100 to 300 (1 to 3 black chips) could I reduce the house edge to break even? How much spread would I need to give myself a little edge? I don't want to get noticed as a card counter blackjack is just something I enjoy but I'd enjoy it more if I could gI've a little less to the house.
Anytime you have a DD, DAS, S17 game it could be watched closely. If you feel heat keep it at 1-3 with a 2 opener. Flirt with a 1-5 spread and see if you notice a change in the pit. Body language tells you a lot if you know how to read it. They often can give you signs that you're pushing it. If they're staring at you they are not happy. Try to play within their comfort level.
The guy wants to bet 100 - 300. If he's doing that at bellagio or another high end MGM property it's doubtful it'll be an issue.
I recommend doing it at a shoe game. 100 - 300 on a bellagio shoe game won't even get a phone call (and by "shoe game" I mean 6 decks. It doesn't count bellagio double deck even though they do indeed deal the game out of a shoe). Double deck in vegas is generally watched very closely.
Yeah, I'm sure some crapholes would 86 you for a $100 - $300 spread on a shoe, but that's not happening at a high end property.
The industry's paranoia with card counters has just been a joke over the last decade. They employ countermeasures that cost them far more, like by a 100 percent ratio than they save by thwarting counters. In other words "spending dollars to save a couple pennies", mentality. Zender has warned them against it for a decade but few have listened. Hopefully they will begin to listen to some of the current folks like Teliot, that are now sounding that tune as well.
Quote: AbeFrohmanSo is it impossible to count a little without getting told not to play or comps taken away? That is such a low threshold that the casinos will be kicking people out or running them away who likely are profitable customers. There is no guarantee that someone trying to count is even a winner. Have a little too much to drink and, whoops! there goes the count. Gamblers spend money at restaurants and shopping and lose money playing other games like slots, baccarat, and craps. kewlj, you seem to be suggesting that someone betting more like 400 or 500 would last a little longer than a low roller. What about somebody betting purple and yellow, maybe the casino would look long and hard at someone like that. They would not want to make a snap decision and lose a big fish to another pond.
It's not how much someone bets or even his spread. It's is he moving his money with the count. It is not hard for a casino to review the tape and see. And they can determine how consistent and accurate he is.
Quote: Bondy3That thread is not the game I play. But I do play in the high limit room. I play:
Double deck
Dealer stands on soft 17
Double after split ok
double on any 2 cards
no resplitting aces
no surrender
Generally about 40 cards are placed after the shuffle card
I think the house edge on this is about 0.29 (as far as I can tell from messing around with some sim software I bought)
While that's not the game you play, you could certainly use the information I provided in that thread (and explain in another one of my threads) to get an answer to your questions, or even be able to do the calculations yourself =).
Quote: RSI suspect a 1-2 or even 1-1.5 spread would break even on that game (0.29% HE), especially heads up.
I talked to a guy this morning who spreads $10 to $20 on a six game with a house edge of 0.35%. He's retired, can walk to the casino and plays for the love of the game. This guy keeps meticulous records on everything.
He uses Hi-Lo, I18 and Fab 4. He wongs aggressively but back counts very little. He put in 600 hours this year. Now for his year's profit. Drum roll please. He won a grand total of $450, or about 75 cents an hour. The casino knows he counts and actually embraces him because he's such a nice guy. He says his yearly total is usually $1500 either side from even.
He's got the skills but likes what he's doing. I don't know his financial situation but he doesn't appear to need the money. One guy's story. Pretty interesting. I don't think he exaggerates his wins. :-)
Quote: sc15People are being overly paranoid.
The guy wants to bet 100 - 300. If he's doing that at bellagio or another high end MGM property it's doubtful it'll be an issue.
I recommend doing it at a shoe game. 100 - 300 on a bellagio shoe game won't even get a phone call (and by "shoe game" I mean 6 decks. It doesn't count bellagio double deck even though they do indeed deal the game out of a shoe). Double deck in vegas is generally watched very closely.
Yeah, I'm sure some crapholes would 86 you for a $100 - $300 spread on a shoe, but that's not happening at a high end property.
The 3 places I generally like to play are mgm grand. Bellagio and Aria. Are those sweaty places? I don't really know how to tell. I've never been backed off or 86d from anywhere and everyone is always friendly to me. I like to think I have alright skills at the game. I'm not trying to take down the house.
I don't like shoe games. I activly seek dd games.
Quote: Bondy3The 3 places I generally like to play are mgm grand. Bellagio and Aria. Are those sweaty places? I don't really know how to tell. I've never been backed off or 86d from anywhere and everyone is always friendly to me. I like to think I have alright skills at the game. I'm not trying to take down the house.
I don't like shoe games. I activly seek dd games.
Bellagio has like 100 min 10000 max DD games.
Highly doubtful they'll sweat your $300 max bet.
Quote: sc15Bellagio has like 100 min 10000 max DD games.
Highly doubtful they'll sweat your $300 max bet.
Is that because they mostly see higher bets? What about the 1 to 3 spread at higher stakes?? If I was playing higher do you think they would sweat it? Hypothetical spread 500 to 1500. (1 to 3 purples) do you think they would sweat that?
Quote: Bondy3Is that because they mostly see higher bets? What about the 1 to 3 spread at higher stakes?? If I was playing higher do you think they would sweat it? Hypothetical spread 500 to 1500. (1 to 3 purples) do you think they would sweat that?
On double deck that would probably get you backed off.
Shoe game probably won't get noticed.
Quote: GreasyjohnI don't think a 1-3 spread, even at $500 to $1,500 would give you a problem at their DD game. But open mostly for 2 units, and have periods when you flat bet 2 units.
Here's the thing, $1K action tends to get a phone call, and card counting doesn't fool anybody these days. So they'll know he's counting. At that point it's not even the spread. An unknown player (or a player who doesn't typically play that kind of action) betting $1K will generate a phone call just because it hits certain thresholds for a procedural phone call.
After the call's made, who knows what they'll look at up there. But if they look to see if he's counting or not, there's a 100% chance he gets discovered. Backed off? Maybe or maybe not, but they WILL know he's doing it.
Quote: sc15Here's the thing, $1K action tends to get a phone call, and card counting doesn't fool anybody these days. So they'll know he's counting. At that point it's not even the spread. An unknown player (or a player who doesn't typically play that kind of action) betting $1K will generate a phone call just because it hits certain thresholds for a procedural phone call.
After the call's made, who knows what they'll look at up there. But if they look to see if he's counting or not, there's a 100% chance he gets discovered. Backed off? Maybe or maybe not, but they WILL know he's doing it.
What you say sounds reasonable. Are you in the business?
Quote: sc15Here's the thing, $1K action tends to get a phone call, and card counting doesn't fool anybody these days. So they'll know he's counting. At that point it's not even the spread. An unknown player (or a player who doesn't typically play that kind of action) betting $1K will generate a phone call just because it hits certain thresholds for a procedural phone call.
After the call's made, who knows what they'll look at up there. But if they look to see if he's counting or not, there's a 100% chance he gets discovered. Backed off? Maybe or maybe not, but they WILL know he's doing it.
How often do people play that high?
