avenged43
avenged43
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December 4th, 2014 at 6:22:33 PM permalink
Locally we have a single deck 50% pen game that is a 6:5 payout. I know a 6:5 payout is a big nono game but its also a 5 min 200 max table. If you didnt care about getting backed off or anything along those lines I was wondering if me and a fellow counter ran hands up to ~22 cards looking for a good count opportunity and counting the aces when the table was just us 2 then spread to table max hands (3 or 4 each) with obviously huge spread could we turn it into a winning game? Theory is to run the deck just short of cut card, then spread to max amount of hands to eat up the rest of the cards, while playing a huge spread on hands across the table. All while counting / ace tracking... It is a risk game at that point but also one I'm sure that will get us immediately barred...
tongni
tongni
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December 4th, 2014 at 6:36:23 PM permalink
sounds pretty horrible. weren't you the one asking what was the optimal bet size with a $200 bankroll? did you hit the lottery since then?
avenged43
avenged43
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December 4th, 2014 at 6:44:42 PM permalink
Quote: tongni

sounds pretty horrible. weren't you the one asking what was the optimal bet size with a $200 bankroll? did you hit the lottery since then?



I ask things in theory for people other then myself who's questions I can't answer... so I never stated that it is my money I have in question in my posts.... Most of my questions come from things that I get asked and have no answer for, and therefor turn to the community.
OzzyOsbourne
OzzyOsbourne
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December 4th, 2014 at 6:45:12 PM permalink
Not only would you most likely get backed off right away, the dealer is going to shuffle on you if you are betting 5-25 dollars then start betting 100, much less 200.
casino's money disappears the execs worry when the wizard is near He turns tears into joy Everyone's happy when the wizard walks by
avenged43
avenged43
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December 4th, 2014 at 6:47:33 PM permalink
Quote: OzzyOsbourne

Not only would you most likely get backed off right away, the dealer is going to shuffle on you if you are betting 5-25 dollars then start betting 100, much less 200.



So on that final hand if we throw out big bets the dealer can shuffle rather then play out the final hand? Learn something new every day never seen a live shuffle before cut card, thanks for the knowledge!
sc15
sc15
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December 5th, 2014 at 1:47:06 AM permalink
Quote: avenged43

So on that final hand if we throw out big bets the dealer can shuffle rather then play out the final hand? Learn something new every day never seen a live shuffle before cut card, thanks for the knowledge!



You're right, the dealer won't shuffle on his/her own unless they're instructed to. But the pit can and will tell the dealer to shuffle more often if they suspect counting.

Why play such a miserable game when there's plenty of double deck games you can play instead and where your card counting is going to be a lot less transparent than spreading 5 - 200
avenged43
avenged43
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December 5th, 2014 at 4:59:20 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

You're right, the dealer won't shuffle on his/her own unless they're instructed to. But the pit can and will tell the dealer to shuffle more often if they suspect counting.

Why play such a miserable game when there's plenty of double deck games you can play instead and where your card counting is going to be a lot less transparent than spreading 5 - 200



all of our DD is 50% pen here =/
RS
RS
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December 5th, 2014 at 5:23:48 AM permalink
Quote: avenged43

all of our DD is 50% pen here =/



That's 10x better than SD 6:5.
terapined
terapined
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December 5th, 2014 at 6:06:04 AM permalink
Couple months ago, was playing at the El Cortez.
I would get there early in the morning, no players.
Single deck all to myself. Very light low roller spread, 5 to 10 dollars, ocasionally 15.
They were giving me about 80% pen :-)
Will be playing there again in 2 1/2 weeks :-)
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
Romes
Romes
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December 5th, 2014 at 7:54:46 AM permalink
Quote: avenged43

...If you didnt care about getting backed off or anything along those lines I was wondering if me and a fellow counter ran hands up to ~22 cards looking for a good count opportunity and counting the aces when the table was just us 2 then spread to table max hands (3 or 4 each) with obviously huge spread could we turn it into a winning game? ...


If you did your homework or took my suggestion to read my other thread which I explain calculating EV, gain per hand, etc, then you in fact could answer this question =), and it would be easy!

All you would have to do is pop open a benchmark excel document, modify the HE and bet spread, and boom... You'll know what spread gets you what expected hourly EV. Don't be intimated by "doing the math." You really aren't doing a lot of math... more just setting up an excel sheet to do the math one time, then it's plug and chug the rest of your life and you'll have all the numbers you could want for any known game / situation!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
avenged43
avenged43
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December 5th, 2014 at 8:18:23 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

If you did your homework or took my suggestion to read my other thread which I explain calculating EV, gain per hand, etc, then you in fact could answer this question =), and it would be easy!

All you would have to do is pop open a benchmark excel document, modify the HE and bet spread, and boom... You'll know what spread gets you what expected hourly EV. Don't be intimated by "doing the math." You really aren't doing a lot of math... more just setting up an excel sheet to do the math one time, then it's plug and chug the rest of your life and you'll have all the numbers you could want for any known game / situation!



Haha forgot I bookmarked it!!!! Got my excel open now!
Romes
Romes
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December 5th, 2014 at 8:31:21 AM permalink
Quote: avenged43

Haha forgot I bookmarked it!!!! Got my excel open now!


Then you should very soon be able to answer your own thread =). Post back with the results!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
avenged43
avenged43
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December 6th, 2014 at 9:47:42 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Then you should very soon be able to answer your own thread =). Post back with the results!



The answer is high risk high reward :D Also the DD game is sadly a 25 min so with limit on bankroll the ROR is super high ! :{ Best one to go with is the 75% pen 6 deck :]
Romes
Romes
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December 8th, 2014 at 12:59:30 PM permalink
Quote: avenged43

The answer is high risk high reward :D Also the DD game is sadly a 25 min so with limit on bankroll the ROR is super high ! :{ Best one to go with is the 75% pen 6 deck :]


Whatever level of RoR you're willing to play with is of course up to you... but don't forget there's always another option to not play and build an appropriate bankroll while you practice =). I'm glad you were able to run some numbers and play with them to determine the best game/spread!
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
arcticfun
arcticfun
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December 8th, 2014 at 4:35:05 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Couple months ago, was playing at the El Cortez.
I would get there early in the morning, no players.
Single deck all to myself. Very light low roller spread, 5 to 10 dollars, ocasionally 15.
They were giving me about 80% pen :-)
Will be playing there again in 2 1/2 weeks :-)



How can you possibly hope to make any significant money betting 5-15? El Cortez is beatable by flat-betting and using comp-dependent strategy. Would they kick someone out if they flat betted $200?
terapined
terapined
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December 9th, 2014 at 4:01:01 AM permalink
Quote: arcticfun

How can you possibly hope to make any significant money betting 5-15? El Cortez is beatable by flat-betting and using comp-dependent strategy. Would they kick someone out if they flat betted $200?


I gamble for fun. Light low roller spread just to even up odds a bit. No interest in heat because that's one of the hotels I'll be staying at in a couple weeks.
No way would you be kicked out flat betting any amount.
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
1BB
1BB
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December 9th, 2014 at 5:21:03 AM permalink
Quote: arcticfun

How can you possibly hope to make any significant money betting 5-15? El Cortez is beatable by flat-betting and using comp-dependent strategy. Would they kick someone out if they flat betted $200?



Yes, if that player was winning. I've seen it happen more than once to a non counter whose only "crime" was winning. There's no rhyme or reason to their madness. On the single deck I've been backed off spreading 1-4 and left alone spreading 1-8. I never use cover there and I always go all out. The results can be surprising. I've also gotten heat at the cage.

A 1-2 spread could probably beat that game and it can be made to look like parlaying.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
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