Offering low limit 3:2 blackjack doesn't actually make financial sense
November 5th, 2014 at 4:37:51 PM
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If a casino had no blackjack tables, I think they'd get less traffic. eg if (let's pretend) all BJ dealers had their own union and they striked at Joe's Casino one day, that casino would probably do much less business at their bar, restaurant, hotel, and at other games. Or -- maybe Blackjack is a "loss leader" (more likely a low-profit leader) to get people into the casino, so let's pretend Aria had no BJ tables but Cosmo did; how much biz would Aria lose? Just their BJ business? Dunno.
Everything is tied together, but a casino knows much more about how much they need to make from a BJ table to justify opening it. The restaurant, bar, gift shop, and hotel should pay for themselves (after accounting for comps). I think the best we can look at is the marginal cost of opening a table -- ie, assuming the table, carpet, chips, chairs, lights, AC, the art on the walls, TV ads, the janitor, and the fountain out front are all already paid for.
There's some information on dealer pay and tokes at vegas-aces.com -- which includes the factoids that Wynn dealers have incomes approaching six figures, while their supervisors make $50-60,000 per year. This is wages + tips, and does not include monetized benefit costs. From what I've seen, all dealers are paid a salary at the Nevada minimum of around 7.25; full-time, that's about $15,000 per year. Down at the El Cortez, a 2013 average suggested dealers get tipped around $56 a day.
What about benefits? An employer contribution of $400/mo towards a family health insurance plan for a dealer working full-time comes out to around $2.50 per hour, btw. AD&D, Short- and Long-Term Disability, free or reduced-cost meals, 401k administration, ...
Cost of a dealer, per hour:
= cost of a dealer per week / average hours at a table
This is where we'll factor vacation, relief time, mandatory training, mandatory meetings, and any other on-the-clock-but-not-at-a-table items. I know airline pilots are paid only for flight time -- when the plane is between gates -- and not for their drive to the airport, the walk to the gate, pre- or post-flight checks, etc, so ... is a dealer paid for 8 hours in an 8-hour shift? Or only for the ~6 hours that they're at a table? Or are they expected to put in 8 table hours in a 9.5-hour work window? I don't know. I'm just gonna skip this consideration because this whole thing is just a mess of estimates, and call this fraction 4/3.
Cost of a dealer, per week:
- wage, $7.25 x 40
- taxes, SS & MC, 7.65%, or 55c/hr
- unemployment tax, 6% of the first $7000 in wages, or 22c/hr
- health insurance, $2.5/hr
- AD&D? STD LTD? Retirement?
- prorated HR cost (eg payroll, schedule management, etc), per employee
- prorated wrongful termination lawsuit fund
- prorated legal wrangling with the union costs
- prorated new dealer hiring expenses
- prorated new dealer training
The largest item here is easily wages, but the total is probably about twice that -- around $15/hr. Add in the time-at-the-tables fraction and it's $20/hr.
Run the same numbers for the suit. About half a suit per table. A much higher wage, so maybe $20/hr too.
Run the same numbers for fills. If this is three guys, five minutes, once every two hours - that's about 1/8th of a security guy. Ask the freakonomics guys, but these guards won't get paid much; cost maybe $3/hr.
Run the same numbers for EITS. Near as I can tell this isn't that much; maybe 1 technician watches over a dozen tables. I think the six cameras and the one surveillance monitor dedicated to our table work out to maybe 1c/hr. The technician himself, $1/hr.
The cocktail waitress brings with her the minuscule cost of soda, the small cost of dishwashing, and the meagre cost of alcohol. The waitress might add $1/hr to the cost of the table for her time, but the booze adds... seriously, do you think they're using grey goose? No, it's probably about $3-4/hr in liquids.
As for comps, the value might be 30% through a host, but not everyone plays with a host, or even rated, or is even rated correctly -- and the casino doesn't pay nominal value on that 'cost'.. I think 10% is fair. $81/hr in raw profit? I think, because of ruin, that number is higher, but I'll give it $8/hr in comps paid out.
Expenses total about $56/hr, and everything's covered except for AC, the janitor, and the fountains. Profit: $25/hr. Including 6:5 payouts adds $80 more in profit -- over 4x.
Man, I feel like playing Casino Tycoon now. Is there such a game? DAMN YOU ALL, 6:5 FOR EVERYONE HAHAHA!
Everything is tied together, but a casino knows much more about how much they need to make from a BJ table to justify opening it. The restaurant, bar, gift shop, and hotel should pay for themselves (after accounting for comps). I think the best we can look at is the marginal cost of opening a table -- ie, assuming the table, carpet, chips, chairs, lights, AC, the art on the walls, TV ads, the janitor, and the fountain out front are all already paid for.
There's some information on dealer pay and tokes at vegas-aces.com -- which includes the factoids that Wynn dealers have incomes approaching six figures, while their supervisors make $50-60,000 per year. This is wages + tips, and does not include monetized benefit costs. From what I've seen, all dealers are paid a salary at the Nevada minimum of around 7.25; full-time, that's about $15,000 per year. Down at the El Cortez, a 2013 average suggested dealers get tipped around $56 a day.
What about benefits? An employer contribution of $400/mo towards a family health insurance plan for a dealer working full-time comes out to around $2.50 per hour, btw. AD&D, Short- and Long-Term Disability, free or reduced-cost meals, 401k administration, ...
Cost of a dealer, per hour:
= cost of a dealer per week / average hours at a table
This is where we'll factor vacation, relief time, mandatory training, mandatory meetings, and any other on-the-clock-but-not-at-a-table items. I know airline pilots are paid only for flight time -- when the plane is between gates -- and not for their drive to the airport, the walk to the gate, pre- or post-flight checks, etc, so ... is a dealer paid for 8 hours in an 8-hour shift? Or only for the ~6 hours that they're at a table? Or are they expected to put in 8 table hours in a 9.5-hour work window? I don't know. I'm just gonna skip this consideration because this whole thing is just a mess of estimates, and call this fraction 4/3.
Cost of a dealer, per week:
- wage, $7.25 x 40
- taxes, SS & MC, 7.65%, or 55c/hr
- unemployment tax, 6% of the first $7000 in wages, or 22c/hr
- health insurance, $2.5/hr
- AD&D? STD LTD? Retirement?
- prorated HR cost (eg payroll, schedule management, etc), per employee
- prorated wrongful termination lawsuit fund
- prorated legal wrangling with the union costs
- prorated new dealer hiring expenses
- prorated new dealer training
The largest item here is easily wages, but the total is probably about twice that -- around $15/hr. Add in the time-at-the-tables fraction and it's $20/hr.
Run the same numbers for the suit. About half a suit per table. A much higher wage, so maybe $20/hr too.
Run the same numbers for fills. If this is three guys, five minutes, once every two hours - that's about 1/8th of a security guy. Ask the freakonomics guys, but these guards won't get paid much; cost maybe $3/hr.
Run the same numbers for EITS. Near as I can tell this isn't that much; maybe 1 technician watches over a dozen tables. I think the six cameras and the one surveillance monitor dedicated to our table work out to maybe 1c/hr. The technician himself, $1/hr.
The cocktail waitress brings with her the minuscule cost of soda, the small cost of dishwashing, and the meagre cost of alcohol. The waitress might add $1/hr to the cost of the table for her time, but the booze adds... seriously, do you think they're using grey goose? No, it's probably about $3-4/hr in liquids.
As for comps, the value might be 30% through a host, but not everyone plays with a host, or even rated, or is even rated correctly -- and the casino doesn't pay nominal value on that 'cost'.. I think 10% is fair. $81/hr in raw profit? I think, because of ruin, that number is higher, but I'll give it $8/hr in comps paid out.
Expenses total about $56/hr, and everything's covered except for AC, the janitor, and the fountains. Profit: $25/hr. Including 6:5 payouts adds $80 more in profit -- over 4x.
Man, I feel like playing Casino Tycoon now. Is there such a game? DAMN YOU ALL, 6:5 FOR EVERYONE HAHAHA!
November 5th, 2014 at 4:48:33 PM
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I believe many of the strip casinos have unionized dealers and that they make much more than minimum wage. I know some dealers at caesars that make over $19 an hour.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
December 23rd, 2014 at 7:30:19 AM
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Having stayed at the Venetian last year and the Palazzo this past year, even though this is a high end property, I feel they've gone too far.
On the Wizard's Hotel guide page, he reviews the Venetian (going back 3 or so years ago) and praised them for having NO 6:5 games at any betting level. I can understand if they want to put out a $10 game and only pay out 6:5. In my home town casino, the Tampa Hard Rock, they have shoe games that start out in the morning at $15 and move up by noon to $25 that pay out 3:2. They have advertised $5 tables 24/7 but those are 6:5. That makes sense, or at least it seems reasonable to me.
The Wizard's Blackjack Survey page now shows that both Venetian and Palazzo have $100 2 and 6 deck games along w/ a $25 2 deck game that still pay 3:2. I probably didn't look at EVERY table, but looking around I never saw the $25 3:2 payout game. I saw a ton of 6:5 with all sorts of limits, even $50. They had a Free Bet game that pays 3:2, but it pushes on any dealer 22.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/
I've read that the HE for Free Bet Blackjack is just over +1.02%, and according to the rule variation link page, the HE gained for pushing on 22 is +6.91%. It was the only game w/ a low limit I saw that pays 3:2 for a natural.
I'm not a high roller and don't plan on blowing through thousands in a week's vacation, but I am willing to play green for the proper 3:2 payoff. I just wish I had found the table. I read an article online from one of the Las Vegas news papers that talked w/ casino officials about the new Vegas tourist trend. The new clientele on the strip are young hipsters that are more interested in clubs than gaming. They come to Vegas to party and spend their money on expensive drinks and bottle service, and not as much at the gaming tables.
Maybe this is why more 6:5 games are showing up? I don't know, but it still feels wrong to go from NO 6:5 games one moment, to almost ALL 6:5 games the next.
On the Wizard's Hotel guide page, he reviews the Venetian (going back 3 or so years ago) and praised them for having NO 6:5 games at any betting level. I can understand if they want to put out a $10 game and only pay out 6:5. In my home town casino, the Tampa Hard Rock, they have shoe games that start out in the morning at $15 and move up by noon to $25 that pay out 3:2. They have advertised $5 tables 24/7 but those are 6:5. That makes sense, or at least it seems reasonable to me.
The Wizard's Blackjack Survey page now shows that both Venetian and Palazzo have $100 2 and 6 deck games along w/ a $25 2 deck game that still pay 3:2. I probably didn't look at EVERY table, but looking around I never saw the $25 3:2 payout game. I saw a ton of 6:5 with all sorts of limits, even $50. They had a Free Bet game that pays 3:2, but it pushes on any dealer 22.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/rule-variations/
I've read that the HE for Free Bet Blackjack is just over +1.02%, and according to the rule variation link page, the HE gained for pushing on 22 is +6.91%. It was the only game w/ a low limit I saw that pays 3:2 for a natural.
I'm not a high roller and don't plan on blowing through thousands in a week's vacation, but I am willing to play green for the proper 3:2 payoff. I just wish I had found the table. I read an article online from one of the Las Vegas news papers that talked w/ casino officials about the new Vegas tourist trend. The new clientele on the strip are young hipsters that are more interested in clubs than gaming. They come to Vegas to party and spend their money on expensive drinks and bottle service, and not as much at the gaming tables.
Maybe this is why more 6:5 games are showing up? I don't know, but it still feels wrong to go from NO 6:5 games one moment, to almost ALL 6:5 games the next.
December 23rd, 2014 at 11:13:18 AM
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Gambler's do not feel that the casino's are offering a fair deal. After a few trips to the casino, they feel as though they're privacy is being violated, and that they're being fleeced.
The model: Attempting to squeeze every last penny possible from the player, doesn't work in the long, and it provides the casino with a negative long term expectation.
-Keyser
The model: Attempting to squeeze every last penny possible from the player, doesn't work in the long, and it provides the casino with a negative long term expectation.
-Keyser
December 23rd, 2014 at 11:25:23 AM
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Quote: KeyserGambler's do not feel that the casino's are offering a fair deal. After a few trips to the casino, they feel as though they're privacy is being violated, and that they're being fleeced.
The model: Attempting to squeeze every last penny possible from the player, doesn't work in the long, and it provides the casino with a negative long term expectation.
-Keyser
Agree with almost everything you said here, Keyser. The one area you lost me was the "privacy" comment. Can you elaborate a little bit, please.
