Safe Bet spread with a 100 hour playtime within a matter of weeks at a local casino?

So, on Wong's webpage there is a table of results based on a $5 - $60 betting spread where 95% of the time a 90 hour play results in -$1,160 to +$3,320 .... My friend and I are both highly skilled in counting, blending in, and basic strat / index plays. I wanted to ask if we were going to run a table at a local casino 2 hands each at $5 minimum table where we are already known as regulars (but not counters) what would be a good bet spread that seems "normal" (to avoid heat in general) while still making a decent mark. I love the 90 hour odds of a $5 - $60 spread especially if we both are running 2 hands each while just socializing with the other regulars / elite members but I feel like the $60 high end is going to catch attention. We each have a $6,000 bank roll. Thank you in advance to all that lend a helping word.

And you think you can spread 5 to 60 for 90 hours or 90 minutes ?

Quote: Buzzard

And you think you can spread 5 to 60 for 90 hours or 90 minutes ?

I think I cant spread 5-60 for 90 hours..... thats the point of the question.... lol xD

The question is what is a safe spread where the casino isn't going to question me? maybe $5 - $25? Play it off like every one of my gambler friends at the casino? The variation he gives is a beautiful + to - ratio but I feel like it wont last long doing 5-60

What? How shitty of a casino is this that you think betting $60 max is going to get you attention?

I don't know if you've ever done card counting seriously before, but you're getting awfully excited about a possible minimum wage opportunity.

I think if you spread to $60 max you will NEVER get noticed.

Quote: sc15

What? How shitty of a casino is this that you think betting $60 max is going to get you attention?

I don't know if you've ever done card counting seriously before, but you're getting awfully excited about a possible minimum wage opportunity.

I think if you spread to $60 max you will NEVER get noticed.

Anyone else find this to be true?

Of course not , But in another thread sc15 says he bets 1-5k per hand, so surprised he knows so much about low limits ?

Quote: Buzzard

Of course not , But in another thread sc15 says he bets 1-5k per hand, so surprised he knows so much about low limits ?

I suppose, I think showing up every day win or lose is already suspicious but a 5-60 spread seems like it would surely add to the problem, where as I was thinking maybe a 5-25 or 5-30 spread would be a little more believable while running 2 hands?

Showing up every day and betting red/green makes you look like a degenerate gambler.

At this level, it should be very easy for you to rathole enough to show them a loss. And if you act like a degenerate loser on top of that nobody will even think twice about what you're doing.

I used to count cards at spanish 21, min to max (25-1000) and played well over 100 hours before getting backed off.

That was like 100 - 200 / hour in EV.

You're looking at 5 - 10 / hour in EV spreading 5-60 on regular blackjack. Highly doubt the casino's going to sweat you for it.

Forget about spreading 5-25. Your EV will be like $2 - 3 / hour.

Quote: avenged43

Anyone else find this to be true?

In my limited experience as a card counter I would agree. In a large casino you can get away with a $10 to $200 spread. The problems start occurring when you get too lucky. If the pit boss sees you with a lot of chips, they start getting sweaty. They start taking notice of your spread. They start taking notice of how you play your hands.

$60 max bet is okay. change your bets naturally. if you are getting very lucky on your big bets, and have amassed a nice pile of chips, consider cutting your '90 hour' play session short and resume play on another day.

" I used to count cards at spanish 21, min to max (25-1000) and played well over 100 hours before getting backed off."

Yeah that old 40-1 spread flies under the radar for sure. And at $5 table you really need to rathole green chips so the house won't see how much you are killing them for. And a 5-1 spread , Oh My, you will not even be one unit ahead after an hour.

Quote: Buzzard

" I used to count cards at spanish 21, min to max (25-1000) and played well over 100 hours before getting backed off."

Yeah that old 40-1 spread flies under the radar for sure. And at $5 table you really need to rathole green chips so the house won't see how much you are killing them for. And a 5-1 spread , Oh My, you will not even be one unit ahead after an hour.

It was more the fact that it was spanish 21 that helped me fly under the radar. One time there was a conversation in the pit about whether or not I was card counting and the conclusion they came up with was that it's not possible to count at S21 LOL.

And if he's playing 5-60 ratholing a couple red / hour is enough already..

Quote: sc15

It was more the fact that it was spanish 21 that helped me fly under the radar. One time there was a conversation in the pit about whether or not I was card counting and the conclusion they came up with was that it's not possible to count at S21 LOL.

And if he's playing 5-60 ratholing a couple red / hour is enough already..

Come back swinging when I get barred for 5 - 60 spread this weekend, ;]

Quote: sc15

What? How shitty of a casino is this that you think betting $60 max is going to get you attention?

I don't know if you've ever done card counting seriously before, but you're getting awfully excited about a possible minimum wage opportunity.

I think if you spread to $60 max you will NEVER get noticed.

\

I agree. We're talking about $5 minimum shoe games. There's always the exception but nobody's going to call out the CIA over this.

Quote: avenged43

Come back swinging when I get barred for 5 - 60 spread this weekend, ;]

If some place is a big enough shithole to bar you for a max bet of $60 then you didn't really lose anything by getting barred.

Unless you're

1) Making it dead obvious you're counting
2) And you're an asshole to dealers/players/other staff members

It's highly unlikely anyone will look at you twice.

Go spread 5-60 without any worries, and get a free buffet at the end of your session.

Quote: avenged43

Come back swinging when I get barred for 5 - 60 spread this weekend, ;]

Is this casino in your grandma's basement? No casino in America is sweating a $60 bet.

Quote: avenged43

Come back swinging when I get barred for 5 - 60 spread this weekend, ;]

Um, something no one else has touched on yet. You said you and your friend will be playing 2 hands each... I hope you mean spreading to 2 hands after the count goes up. If you play 2 hands straight through the whole time (positive or negative) then you're not actually adding to your EV, just trying to limit variance. Also, if you're playing out of the same bankroll (would recommend) then this only gives you extra EV if you're playing separate tables. Otherwise it's the same as you spreading to 3 hands the whole time, etc.

I don't understand how people can get in to counting and not know their exact EV, hourly wage, trip expectations, etc. In my A-Z card counting thread I posted an excel screenshot showing how to get all of these calculations (for Hi/Low counting). I suggest you go review it and make your own spreadsheet so you know exactly what you're doing and what to expect. $5-$60 spread is probably getting you something like $10/hour. Actually, after slightly modifying one of my many spreadsheets for 6D, I'm getting an expected hourly rate of $8.6873 playing anything in the bounds of -1 to +8. This is also breaking out the $60 max bet at TC +4. So don't expect to be swimming in the gold.

Is this a 6D game, or a DD game? That's quite important for the spread. I have a local 6D $5 game that I've gotten away with spreading $5-$60 at before, but for example when I was in Vegas, I got shuffled up on at Golden Gate for spreading to $60 from $5 (second shoe double deck). You generally can't get away with spreading as much at DD, and you might be limited to a $40 max bet (or $50 if you don't sense any heat).

Are you playing at local shops that you really don't want to get bared from? Are you playing rated? Is it worth your EV? These are all things that should go in to consideration of your spread... It sounds like you have a lot of homework to do. Counting is easy, the homework away from the table isn't always (which is why I made a thread to try to compile a lot of this information, that took me many years, postings, and sites to find, in one place).

Quote: Romes

Um, something no one else has touched on yet. You said you and your friend will be playing 2 hands each... I hope you mean spreading to 2 hands after the count goes up. If you play 2 hands straight through the whole time (positive or negative) then you're not actually adding to your EV, just trying to limit variance. Also, if you're playing out of the same bankroll (would recommend) then this only gives you extra EV if you're playing separate tables. Otherwise it's the same as you spreading to 3 hands the whole time, etc.

I don't understand how people can get in to counting and not know their exact EV, hourly wage, trip expectations, etc. In my A-Z card counting thread I posted an excel screenshot showing how to get all of these calculations (for Hi/Low counting). I suggest you go review it and make your own spreadsheet so you know exactly what you're doing and what to expect. $5-$60 spread is probably getting you something like $10/hour. Actually, after slightly modifying one of my many spreadsheets for 6D, I'm getting an expected hourly rate of $8.6873 playing anything in the bounds of -1 to +8. This is also breaking out the $60 max bet at TC +4. So don't expect to be swimming in the gold.

Is this a 6D game, or a DD game? That's quite important for the spread. I have a local 6D $5 game that I've gotten away with spreading $5-$60 at before, but for example when I was in Vegas, I got shuffled up on at Golden Gate for spreading to $60 from $5 (second shoe double deck). You generally can't get away with spreading as much at DD, and you might be limited to a $40 max bet (or $50 if you don't sense any heat).

Are you playing at local shops that you really don't want to get bared from? Are you playing rated? Is it worth your EV? These are all things that should go in to consideration of your spread... It sounds like you have a lot of homework to do. Counting is easy, the homework away from the table isn't always (which is why I made a thread to try to compile a lot of this information, that took me many years, postings, and sites to find, in one place).

Appreciate the words of wisdom, its an 8d game for the 5$ minimum, only 6d game I have local is at another casino but its $25 minimum which is a little harsh for my bankroll, What true count should I start running another hand do you think? I know schlesinger said to run 1 hand with spreads from TC 1-4 then at the TC 5 run 5 spread with 2 hands , but if I were doing many hours would I lower that TC double hand point or always run it like that? I was thinking maybe 1 H -1 to +2 then +3 and up running 2 hands? And yes I know I have studying to do, which is why I question it here before the casino because people with countless hours here can lead me in the right direction (or lead me astray being a**holes, but we will act like everyone here is a mature adult ! ....)

One factor to consider when spreading to two hands is the number of other players at the table which you hope is as few as possible.

Quote: 1BB

One factor to consider when spreading to two hands is the number of other players at the table which you hope is as few as possible.

I was going to start a new thread about this but now that you bring it up, am I better of playing heads up 1v1 with dealer with 1 hand? or maybe 2? or playing at a full table with 1 hand? or what exactly?

Quote: avenged43

I was going to start a new thread about this but now that you bring it up, am I better of playing heads up 1v1 with dealer with 1 hand? or maybe 2? or playing at a full table with 1 hand? or what exactly?

Heads up one hand. If the count is good you can spread to two hands just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration. Remember that DD games worth playing are closely watched and that spreading with the count can be a huge red flag.

Quote: 1BB

Heads up one hand. If the count is good you can spread to two hands just before the shuffle to get deeper penetration. Remember that DD games worth playing are closely watched and that spreading with the count can be a huge red flag.

It would be 8 deck and yea I've spent a fair share of hours on the floor so I see that alot, also our dragon 7 baccarat here has its own pitboss ... lol.... then again it is the #1 card counting advantage game atm with the whole 40:1 payout and what not

In a couple of the books I've read there's been some debate about going to two hands. The only two conclusive things I've read is that you really don't want to go to three, and you should portion your bets as 150% of your 1 hand max bet if you go to 2 hands. For example, say your 1 hand max bet is $100, then if you want to spread to 2 hands at that same TC, you should bet 2 hands of $75.

The way I see it, as long as you only do it when you are a statistical favorite, then you can't be doing it wrong. Whether it's at TC +2 or TC +5, the extra hand you add in is also taking that advantage. Some don't like this because they believe you will get less rounds in the shoe. I disagree with that thought because I'd rather play the known advantage now and take hands away from later when I don't know what it will be. Personally, when I'm on my Vegas trips I like to spread to 2 hands as soon as I think it doesn't look too suspicious (while having a statistical advantage... TC +1 for some games, TC +2 for others). If I'm playing double deck I'll also come in w/ 2 hands off the top, sometimes, for both cover and to show I'm a player who plays more than one hand on occasion.

I kinda had to chuckle at page 1. Spread 5-60, sure, try it. First time you plop 2 greens on a red table (and you been bettin 1 red some times), cameras swing around your way. I'd rather spread 10-40 all red. But thats me.

It gets better per the plan. , gonna play 4 hands with 2 players. Surely no one will notice they are betting $20 total mire often than not, and occasionally going up to $240 towards the end of a shoe. Casino personnel, especially surveillance, are so DUMB !

Quote: 98Clubs

I kinda had to chuckle at page 1. Spread 5-60, sure, try it. First time you plop 2 greens on a red table (and you been bettin 1 red some times), cameras swing around your way. I'd rather spread 10-40 all red. But thats me.

I'd rather deliver pizzas than spread 10-40

you may get your wish sooner than you expect. LOL

Quote: Buzzard

you may get your wish sooner than you expect. LOL

nice 1, I got a chuckle.

Quote: Buzzard

It gets better per the plan. , gonna play 4 hands with 2 players. Surely no one will notice they are betting $20 total mire often than not, and occasionally going up to $240 towards the end of a shoe. Casino personnel, especially surveillance, are so DUMB !

You guys never give a realistic answer 50% of you say hell yea go for it and other 50% say that its far fetched.... can we all agree on something one time ever ffs?

Not rated, not suspected yet, regular at the casino , friends with a few of the dealers, it it trouble or not to spread 5-60 ...

Quote: avenged43

You guys never give a realistic answer 50% of you say hell yea go for it and other 50% say that its far fetched.... can we all agree on something one time ever ffs?

Not rated, not suspected yet, regular at the casino , friends with a few of the dealers, it it trouble or not to spread 5-60 ...

Generally, no it's not a problem in a shoe. I'm pretty sure this was answered...they told you it's not very profitable, and what is OK does depend on the size/tolerance of the individual casino.
Pay no attention to Buzzard when asking questions.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Generally, no it's not a problem in a shoe. I'm pretty sure this was answered...they told you it's not very profitable, and what is OK does depend on the size/tolerance of the individual casino.
Pay no attention to Buzzard when asking questions.

Thank you, appreciate the straight forward response....

what count do you use for spanish 21 if you dont mind sharing.

$60 bets are noise to a casino unless it is some isolated sweaty Indian joint. Then anything is possible.

Generally speaking, you will be ignored at this level. You are no threat to their game.