In the red
Now, in fairness, my style of play, playing a large rotation of local games, some barely playable by my liberal standard, meaning a high N0, coupled with the fact that I play many different games, including bet spreads and max bets, based on what I determine each locations tolerance level to be, means that I am playing to a very high total N0. This choice has definitely come back to bite me in the ass, so far this year.
I am a ‘grinder’ type player, meaning I play a lot, more than I suspect most professional players do, and I figure that I will eventually get to this higher N0, that I have set for myself in my longevity trade off. Results so far this year are severely testing that thought process along with my patience. I have already begun tweaking my game plan, moving more towards the better games and opportunities and lower N0, for the remainder of the years and at year’s end, when I re-evaluate, may do so on a permanent basis.
money from BJ, and are even down a
couple hundred. How can you maintain
your lifestyle at this rate, isn't your partner
in the same boat?
It's simple, Saved money.Quote: EvenBobSo in the first 7 months you have made no
money from BJ, and are even down a
couple hundred. How can you maintain
your lifestyle at this rate, isn't your partner
in the same boat?
Quote: EvenBobDo in the first 7 months you have made no
money from BJ, and are even down a
couple hundred. How can you maintain
your lifestyle at this rate, isn't your partner
in the same boat?
I should clarify that the results posted are my own personal blackjack results from my individual play. My partner has BJ results from his individual play and we have BJ results from limited joint play...my own variation of call-in, which we don't do a lot of (mostly out of town). At years end we add up these three different results and divide the total results out by amount of play contributed. So in other words, if the year ended today, my share of all our BJ play would be just about 20 grand. I would be the beneficiary of our partnership. In past years, like last year, when my BJ play was nearly 50% higher than expectation, my partner was the beneficiary and received a bigger share than he actually won.
In addition, we have non-BJ AP income consisting of bonus chasing video poker play which usually totals somewhere around 35-40 grand, which we split 50-50.
If the year were to continue in this manner, one down year isn't going to effect my lifestyle. Two down years isn't going to effect my lifestyle. 3 or 4 might begin to. With another strong year above expectation as the last 2 have been, I was hoping to pay off my first house that I purchased last summer, so that is unlikely to happen this year.
47,000 hands, at 80 hands an hour is 587.5 hours, or a little under 3 hours a day on average, or a little under 10 hours a day, weekends only.
With rules common in my area, 2D, H17, DAS, that's a 'realistic' edge of .456%. With a 50$ average wager, theoretical losses are 10,716$.
Quote: VenthusJust breaking down values a bit, mostly for my own curiosity but to save anybody else the trouble...
47,000 hands, at 80 hands an hour is 587.5 hours, or a little under 3 hours a day on average, or a little under 10 hours a day, weekends only.
I personally don't track my play be time, as evident by this thread. I switched to estimation of hands played several years ago, because it is more reflective of where results should be (expectation). But, don't make the mistake of comparing AP blackjack or any AP hours played to a 40 hour tradition job work week. It does NOT work that way. Full-time BJ player ALL play less than 1000 hours per year. Most significantly less. For every hour spent playing you spend at least another hour maybe two, scouting and traveling between games. Player's not having many games in close proximity, as I do, will spend even more time traveling.
Sorry BBB but, this is annoying and cheesy, when I hear people saying this. It's almost like if we all started saying Hey Hey! it would get real old real fast. If Soxfan says it, well, that's his thing, its expected and feels almost normal.Quote: beachbumbabsThanks for posting this, kj. Better variance the rest of the year.
When people participate in using the variance phrase, it sounds forced, like an overcompensation confirming to others your being AP correct. TBH, almost No AP's or gamblers say this to each other. Normal people and AP's simply say, Good luck, its implied people know you mean variance.
I'm not trying to bash you personally, I wanted to say this many times before, you just happen to push me over the edge.
the stress of the ride gets to be too much as you
enter middle age. Most get into something
else, like poker.
Two good years in a row are looking to have the
air let out of them, when you have such a small
edge.
Quote: kewljEarly into the 8th month of the year and my blackjack results have slipped into the red for the YEAR. I have played just over 47,000 rounds and am down a couple hundred dollars. I am not posting my results to vent or complain and I am not crying variance. I hesitated to share these results but decided to because there have been a number instances on a couple of the sites that I participate on, where new posters have posted their plans to begin play, whether attempting to play for a living or part-time and their plans have included playing underfunded, with a high RoR. It seems some of these folks have little understanding of ‘the long run’. My results for the year show just how long the long run can be. And just imagine what can happen in the short run.
Now, in fairness, my style of play, playing a large rotation of local games, some barely playable by my liberal standard, meaning a high N0, coupled with the fact that I play many different games, including bet spreads and max bets, based on what I determine each locations tolerance level to be, means that I am playing to a very high total N0. This choice has definitely come back to bite me in the ass, so far this year.
I am a ‘grinder’ type player, meaning I play a lot, more than I suspect most professional players do, and I figure that I will eventually get to this higher N0, that I have set for myself in my longevity trade off. Results so far this year are severely testing that thought process along with my patience. I have already begun tweaking my game plan, moving more towards the better games and opportunities and lower N0, for the remainder of the years and at year’s end, when I re-evaluate, may do so on a permanent basis.
Thanks for posting; this is a good lesson for anyone who takes the game seriously (or wants to). I hope it turns around for you soon.
Ian Andersen's story in his book about going on a 1500 unit losing streak (or whatever it was) is a good one too.
Quote: EvenBobHow can you maintain
your lifestyle at this rate, isn't your partner
in the same boat?
If worse comes to worse, I can shovel snow from people driveways and sidewalks this winter. There are very few people that do this in Vegas, so I can 'corner the market'. :)
Quote: kewljIf worse comes to worse, I can shovel snow from people driveways and sidewalks this winter. There are very few people that do this in Vegas, so I can 'corner the market'. :)
It's just a strange career to follow when you
work everyday and lose money for 7 months
straight. That's what eventually makes BJ AP's
throw in the towel..
Quote: AxelWolfSorry BBB but, this is annoying and cheesy, when I hear people saying this. It's almost like if we all started saying Hey Hey! it would get real old real fast. If Soxfan says it, well, that's his thing, its expected and feels almost normal.
When people participate in using the variance phrase, it sounds forced, like an overcompensation confirming to others your being AP correct. TBH, almost No AP's or gamblers say this to each other. Normal people and AP's simply say, Good luck, its implied people know you mean variance.
I'm not trying to bash you personally, I wanted to say this many times before, you just happen to push me over the edge.
Didn't you know? I'm annoying and cheesy. Thanks for noticing. Get over it.
I took it that kewlj was posting specifically for stabworld and others like him, and it was quite generous for him to put a no-BS accounting out there, as someone who's 10 years down the road they're trying to navigate and generally successful. So, yeah, people come on here when they're having a tough time and tell us. djatc's another one who comes to mind. When things suck, sometimes you just want to dump your stuff and know other people hear you and give a damn. I get that you're a "suck it up" kind of guy. Not everybody is.
The main point here is that if you are just starting out, you are not better than KJ, so if it can happen to him it can sure as hell happen to you. And anyone who thinks that this can only happen in BJ and not VP, poker, or any other form of AP is mistaken. If 10 people play for 10 years each you would expect 1 of them to have a year in the bottom 1% of expectation. Which really makes me wonder about people who are happy with RoRs in the 5% range.
WOW! talk about puns or whatever.Quote: beachbumbabsI get that you're a "suck it up" kind of guy.
Quote: kewljI am not crying variance.
Quote: AxelWolfWhen people participate in using the variance phrase, it sounds forced
Wow, thanks BBB, I know what not to say now. For the life of me, I don't know where this is coming from. Then again, I am not an AP. Is it superstition? You jinx somebody when you ask if variance was against him?
Quote: AxelWolfSorry BBB but, this is annoying and cheesy, when I hear people saying this. It's almost like if we all started saying Hey Hey! it would get real old real fast. If Soxfan says it, well, that's his thing, its expected and feels almost normal.
When people participate in using the variance phrase, it sounds forced, like an overcompensation confirming to others your being AP correct. TBH, almost No AP's or gamblers say this to each other. Normal people and AP's simply say, Good luck, its implied people know you mean variance.
I'm not trying to bash you personally, I wanted to say this many times before, you just happen to push me over the edge.
I wish APs good cards and the rest good luck. I've been told by APs that it has nothing to do with luck and some actually are offended by that word. Anyone who doesn't want luck can feel free to send it to me.
They might be offended when people say its all luck and you cant win gambling.Quote: 1BBI wish APs good cards and the rest good luck. I've been told by APs that it has nothing to do with luck and some actually are offended by that word. Anyone who doesn't want luck can feel free to send it to me.
However, I have yet to have any AP say Good variance instead of good luck nor have I had anyone get upset or correct me when I said good luck. If someone is explaining AP they will often say it has nothing to do with luck.
I know the Wiz used the something to the affect of good variance but it seems to be fitting to his persona.
Quote: RonCIt is polite to simply take well wishes for what they are and thank the person for wishing you well. No one was trying to insult or criticize anyone's ability as an AP. Many of us wish we could do it. Most of us know it can be done. All of us know the play is sound but results are not automatic.
You hit the nail on the head with that very sensible post. With that, let me be the first to wish everyone an early Merry Christmas 2014! I think I even beat out the stores with that one!
Quote: EvenBobIt's just a strange career to follow when you
work everyday and lose money for 7 months
straight. That's what eventually makes BJ AP's
throw in the towel..
I look at it in a different light EB. It is these negative aspects of being a card counter AP, the huge negative swings that severely 'test' those of us in the moment and drive others from the game, is the very thing that allows me and others to succeed. If it was all roses and winning with any kind of 'regularity', then everyone and his mother would be a successful card counter and the casinos would tighten up rules and conditions and offer no beatable games.
Quote: beachbumbabs
I took it that kewlj was posting specifically for stabworld and others like him, and it was quite generous for him to put a no-BS accounting out there, as someone who's 10 years down the road they're trying to navigate and generally successful. So, yeah, people come on here when they're having a tough time and tell us. djatc's another one who comes to mind.
You can read me like a book, BBB. I was thinking of stabworld when I decided to share this experience. And while I was specifically thinking of stabworld, there are others like him, that I thought and hoped could benefit. I believe we learn from experience. Primarily our own experiences, but there is a secondary opportunity to learn from other member's and player's experiences. I know I have benefited greatly from this.
Nobody, myself included wants to post about the bad runs, or bad periods and open themselves up to goofy responses about how you should have done this or should have done that or you are playing a negative EV game or you are just an idiot. But if you are going to share experiences as I choose to do, I think you are obligated to share the good WITH the bad. If I am going to post about the amazing run I had last spring winning 6 figures and 95% of my years total in a 5 week span, or post about the 'perfect shoe' I had a few years ago, winning 1/3 of my years total in 20 minutes, then I better be willing to share the 7+ months of play that have me currently in the red for the year or the attempt to train a friend or partner that didn't work out. I want to paint the whole picture.
Also, I though it would please PGDan to know that one of those 'thieving' card counting, AP's is struggling and getting his butt kicked. :)
Quote: kewljYou can read me like a book, BBB. I was thinking of stabworld when I decided to share this experience. And while I was specifically thinking of stabworld, there are others like him, that I thought and hoped could benefit. I believe we learn from experience. Primarily our own experiences, but there is a secondary opportunity to learn from other member's and player's experiences. I know I have benefited greatly from this.
Nobody, myself included wants to post about the bad runs, or bad periods and open themselves up to goofy responses about how you should have done this or should have done that or you are playing a negative EV game or you are just an idiot. But if you are going to share experiences as I choose to do, I think you are obligated to share the good WITH the bad. If I am going to post about the amazing run I had last spring winning 6 figures and 95% of my years total in a 5 week span, or post about the 'perfect shoe' I had a few years ago, winning 1/3 of my years total in 20 minutes, then I better be willing to share the 7+ months of play that have me currently in the red for the year or the attempt to train a friend or partner that didn't work out. I want to paint the whole picture.
Also, I though it would please PGDan to know that one of those 'thieving' card counting, AP's is struggling and getting his butt kicked. :)
Well said. It's precisely because it's difficult that there's profit potential in it. There are no easy legal ways of making scads of money.
Apparently you haven't seen this http://origamiboulder.com/Quote: vegaskid74Well said. It's precisely because it's difficult that there's profit potential in it. There are no easy legal ways of making scads of money.
Quote: AxelWolfWOW! talk about puns or whatever.
Re: "suck it up". Perhaps that's a regionalism? I heard it all the time growing up in the Midwest, usually directed at boys (but not always) by coaches and male parents. It means, variously, "play through the pain"; "no whining"; "big boys don't cry"; "get on with it". And is not a pun or double entendre. If anything, it's directed at a man in tears for whatever reason, to get him to stop crying and man up. And how I took your mini-rant about the variance thing and other comments you've made towards other people sharing hard-luck stories.
I get that AP does not depend on variance or luck. (I was, early in my participation here, scolded several times for using the word "luck", so that's why I said "variance".) And yet, when someone's playing perfect strategy and using other AP tools well, and the game still turns against them for a long period, what's left to look at but the chance part of the operation? It will turn back to his favor; the numbers don't lie. But kewlj has set a somewhat arbitrary deadline for it to do so by comparing year-over-year stats on profitability. What does variance know from dates? It just norms over time. It'll come, but he does have a certain clock ticking against him; that of the casinos recognizing him as an AP (hopefully never, but realistically the time will come). So this is a bad stretch of time to be losing, while those doors are still mostly open to him. At some point, he'll probably be burned, but it would be better for him to be making money now, before he loses those opportunities. (Obviously I'm not talking only to you, since you're one of the people teaching me about these things.)
Quote: beachbumbabsBut kewlj has set a somewhat arbitrary deadline for it to do so by comparing year-over-year stats on profitability.
It is actually the United States Government that sets such an arbitrary deadline. I am just forced to go along.
Quote: kewljIt is actually the United States Government that sets such an arbitrary deadline. I am just forced to go along.
Point well taken. lol....
Quote: beachbumbabsRe: "suck it up". Perhaps that's a regionalism? I heard it all the time growing up in the Midwest, usually directed at boys...
If ever there was a post that showed how important punctuation is, it would be the above line. After all, just thhink how it would have read had the rightmost quotation marks been moved one word left..... "suck it" up certainly seems to mean something completely different.
Just saying....
Quote: AxelWolf
I'm not trying to bash you personally, I wanted to say this many times before, you just happen to push me over the edge.
Yes, if only we could all be more like
Axel and just say 'good luck'. I hate
when people say that to me and have
said as much to them. I would much
rather they said variance. Hope that
doesn't push you completely off the
edge, that would be a real shame.
Quote: kewljIf I am going to post about the amazing run I had last spring winning 6 figures and 95% of my years total in a 5 week span, or post about the 'perfect shoe' I had a few years ago, winning 1/3 of my years total in 20 minutes,
It's all about random. The shoe is random, the
people playing the shoe are random, your
wins and losses for the day are random, and
the sessions strung together are random.
In random, things bunch together, it's rarely
smooth. The smaller your edge, the more bunching
there will be. If you hang in there the positive
bunching will come again, it has to, it has no
choice. Like Doyle Brunson a few years ago, not
having a winning session in 4 months, the longest
of his long career. He says he almost quit. But
he didn't and came back strong.
Quote: EvenBobYes, if only we could all be more like
Axel and just say 'good luck'. I hate
when people say that to me and have
said as much to them.
How about if someone tells you, in saying goodbye: "Break a leg?"
Not only would it be the polite trivialism the situation calls for, they might secretly chuckle, realizing in a moment of epiphany that they really hoped it would happen.
Ah, the sometimes subtle nuances of speech.
Quote: kimuraKewlj how much have you tipped the dealers during all those hands? Dealers' tip revenu in general is more than that of a counter. If you tip a quarter of what an average gambler does that makes your net profit of bj counting.
Pretty sure KJ doesn't tip, based on previous posts. If he does at all, I'm sure he is aware of his edge in relation to tip size.
Most APs don't tip at all because if they tipped a reasonable amount based on their expected win, it would look so small to the dealers and other players so as elicit a "why bother" response from the dealers et. al, and really just draw more attention than not tipping at all.
Quote: AcesAndEightsMost APs don't tip at all because if they tipped a reasonable amount based on their expected win, it would look so small to the dealers and other players so as elicit a "why bother" response from the dealers et. al, and really just draw more attention than not tipping at all.
Oh.
I just figured they were cheap stiffs.
Thanks for clarifying that.
Quote: MrVOh.
I just figured they were cheap stiffs.
Thanks for clarifying that.
Could also be true. Case-by-case basis :).
That's not true.Quote: AcesAndEights
Most APs don't tip at all
Anyways, another suggestion is to travel outside of LV. Play your best game and stop worrying about 86s in those casinos outside of LV.
Quote: AxelWolfThat's not true.
Should have added an "in my experience" disclaimer there. Among the card counters I know from the internet, it seems that the vast majority don't tip. Perhaps it's a different story among machine pros, or I'm just remembering wrong, or I only internet-hang-out-with the cheap APs.
Quote: KickassIn this forum, I read so many stories from the people bragging about their consistent win rates in BJ like receiving a stable paycheck every month.
What? Who says that?
Quote: AcesAndEightsPretty sure KJ doesn't tip, based on previous posts. If he does at all, I'm sure he is aware of his edge in relation to tip size.
Most APs don't tip at all because if they tipped a reasonable amount based on their expected win, it would look so small to the dealers and other players so as elicit a "why bother" response from the dealers et. al, and really just draw more attention than not tipping at all.
Very good point thks. better not to tip at all.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhat? Who says that?
Like this one: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/16771-whats-your-blackjack-disguise/
So 1.Quote: KickassLike this one: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/16771-whats-your-blackjack-disguise/
Some people claim a lot of crap that is nonsense (usually system players). Some are just board trolls. Some want to sell crap. Some people can clearly tell the difference between a real AP (or at least someone who knows what they are talking about.)and a FAPer
Straight up card counting is a tough gig.
You will find that most guys who are really successful BJ players are doing a lot more than just straight up counting.
Quote: AxelWolf
You will find that most guys who are really successful BJ players are doing a lot more than just straight up counting.
Cab driving, waiting tables..
