Surrender

If the odds written below are correct, why would you not always surrender when you have less than 50% chance of winning when must you hit. That is sitting on a 14 against the dealers 7, you should hit, yet you will bust 56%, why not surrender and lose only 50%



"Blackjack Odds of Busting

by John The Duke Owens
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Blackjack Odds of Busting
As strange as it may seem, one of the least known pieces of blackjack strategy involves knowing your odds of busting with different hands. For instance, if you have a score total of 15 and you hit, you have a 58% chance of busting. Knowing little facts like this is very useful when you’re using outside-of-the-box blackjack strategy that deviates from a strategy chart. This being said, here are the chances of busting when you hit with each score total:

Hit on 21 = 100% chance of busting
Hit on 20 = 92% chance of busting
Hit on 19 = 85% chance of busting
Hit on 18 = 77% chance of busting
Hit on 17 = 69% chance of busting
Hit on 16 = 62% chance of busting
Hit on 15 = 58% chance of busting
Hit on 14 = 56% chance of busting
Hit on 13 = 39% chance of busting
Hit on 12 = 31% chance of busting"

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Ok, but if I bust 56% of the times I hit 14, I have already lost 6% plus whatever % I will lose when my improved 14 competes with dealers improved 7, could be anywhere up to 50% of 44%, so final probability of losing if player hits 14 against 7 is somewhere between 56% and 78%. My question was if I lose an extra 6% by busting when I hit 14 rather than surrendering, before even considering the outcome of my improved 14 winning, why not surrender?

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Ok, I get it, if I win at least 28% of the time I finish up the same as surrendering. With the probability of the dealer busting the 7 at 26%, there appears to be a small % advantage in hitting

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How I see it is Hitting -56%
Dealer Busts 11% (44% of 26%)
Push 9%
Player Wins 12% (50% of the remaining 24%)

So players return 22%
9%
24%

Say 55% only rough but as you say return greater than 50%

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"If you're not good enough to do the math, then just trust the math."

Quote: MickyRat

Hit on 21 = 100% chance of busting
Hit on 20 = 92% chance of busting
Hit on 19 = 85% chance of busting
Hit on 18 = 77% chance of busting
Hit on 17 = 69% chance of busting
Hit on 16 = 62% chance of busting
Hit on 15 = 58% chance of busting
Hit on 14 = 56% chance of busting
Hit on 13 = 39% chance of busting
Hit on 12 = 31% chance of busting

I've never seen these numbers before. They raise a question:

Why is there such a disparity in the differences?

IE: Why does the percentage from 13 to 14 change a whopping 17 points when 14 to 15 changes only a measley 2 points? Etc.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I've never seen these numbers before. They raise a question:

Why is there such a disparity in the differences?

IE: Why does the percentage from 13 to 14 change a whopping 17 points when 14 to 15 changes only a measley 2 points? Etc.

I believe that table is incorrect for 14 and 15.

Briefly check figures for 13 & 12
Would say 13 should b maybe around 52% & 12 maybe approx. 47%
Perhaps someone could calculate them more accurately

The threshold for surrender is 25% probability for a winning hand.

Why ? If you win, you get paid *double* your initial stake. If you surrender, you get paid *half* your initial stake. That is a factor of 4 (and not 2 as you assume) in the pay if you play the hand compared to surrender. Hence a chance of 25% winning the hand makes both options equal. Less chance favors surrender, more chance favors hitting.

Surrendering a 46% hand is a *huge* mistake. (i.e. costs you 21% of your stake).

Cost of surrendering would b not 21%, but perhaps 5%. U lose 56% of the time u hit cause u bust, then of the remaining 44% u may win & push sufficiently to give you a return of say 55%, so the difference between surrendering and playing on is approx. 5%. People with stimulation software could give more accurate figures

I realize what the original writer did, with 14 & 15 he calculated the percentage of times the player would bust if he hit then played on till he was between 17 & 21 or busted, with 12 & 13 he calculated % of busting with one extra card only. I think if you are considering surrendering, the busting or reaching 17 to 21 is what should be considered. So the figures for 13 should be about 52% & 12 about 47%.