Surrender

If the odds written below are correct, why would you not always surrender when you have less than 50% chance of winning when must you hit. That is sitting on a 14 against the dealers 7, you should hit, yet you will bust 56%, why not surrender and lose only 50%



"Blackjack Odds of Busting

by John The Duke Owens
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Blackjack Odds of Busting
As strange as it may seem, one of the least known pieces of blackjack strategy involves knowing your odds of busting with different hands. For instance, if you have a score total of 15 and you hit, you have a 58% chance of busting. Knowing little facts like this is very useful when you’re using outside-of-the-box blackjack strategy that deviates from a strategy chart. This being said, here are the chances of busting when you hit with each score total:

Hit on 21 = 100% chance of busting
Hit on 20 = 92% chance of busting
Hit on 19 = 85% chance of busting
Hit on 18 = 77% chance of busting
Hit on 17 = 69% chance of busting
Hit on 16 = 62% chance of busting
Hit on 15 = 58% chance of busting
Hit on 14 = 56% chance of busting
Hit on 13 = 39% chance of busting
Hit on 12 = 31% chance of busting"

Quote: MickyRat

That is sitting on a 14 against the dealers 7, you should hit, yet you will bust 56%, why not surrender and lose only 50%

Im not a maths guy, but instictively Im guessing its because of the times you dont bust. Surrendering every hand with a 50% or greater bust chance seems to me you would always lose 50% of your bet, and never have a chance of winning.

Quote: MickyRat

If the odds written below are correct, why would you not always surrender when you have less than 50% chance of winning when must you hit. That is sitting on a 14 against the dealers 7, you should hit, yet you will bust 56%, why not surrender and lose only 50%



"Blackjack Odds of Busting

by John The Duke Owens
Bookmark and Share
Blackjack Odds of Busting
As strange as it may seem, one of the least known pieces of blackjack strategy involves knowing your odds of busting with different hands. For instance, if you have a score total of 15 and you hit, you have a 58% chance of busting. Knowing little facts like this is very useful when you’re using outside-of-the-box blackjack strategy that deviates from a strategy chart. This being said, here are the chances of busting when you hit with each score total:

Hit on 21 = 100% chance of busting
Hit on 20 = 92% chance of busting
Hit on 19 = 85% chance of busting
Hit on 18 = 77% chance of busting
Hit on 17 = 69% chance of busting
Hit on 16 = 62% chance of busting
Hit on 15 = 58% chance of busting
Hit on 14 = 56% chance of busting
Hit on 13 = 39% chance of busting
Hit on 12 = 31% chance of busting"

Based on expected value. Ignoring the fact you can fail to bust and yet still lose just going to pretend the 56% chance is your chance of winning. So at 56% you will lose 44%. That means expected value is .56*0+.44*2=.88 whereas the expected value of surrendering is a straight .5. So has a higher expected value so is a better play.