December 21st, 2016 at 7:06:53 AM permalink
I can be a pessimist with the best of them... but the first place you should go when you're short on EV isn't variance/luck/god hates me. The first place you should go is all of your expectations and estimations, etc. You'd be AMAZED to know that nearly EVERY SINGLE counter I've helped evaluate their play was overestimating their EV. A lot of them thought they were getting 100 hands per hour, when they were really only getting 60 hands per hour. That right there will chunk your EV by 40%. Then, they ignored their mistakes and how many times they lost the count and had to sit out or play min (again still counting those hands). Deck estimations, rounding with true count conversions, etc, etc, etc. I'm not saying you're doing any of this wrong, just that I've never come across a player who wasn't overestimating his EV... So if you think it's $45k and it's really $30k and you're at $20k, you're not too far off that you think. Just something to consider.Quote: ZenKinG
...Life's fair isn't it?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.