Half-Shoe Question
Really enjoy the content and discussion on here. One of the few active BJ forums I could find...
So I have taken an interest in counting and have been taking advantage of the popular high low/running count method. I am having some difficulty understanding the concept of deck penetration.
According to what I have read, you should avoid games with a deck penetration of 50%. Well, my casino of choice literally half-shoes every time they shuffle. From what I understand, a low deck penetration is bad because it reduces the overall chance of a high true count from occurring. However, what if a high true count DOES occur? Is it still a waste of time to jump in?
Thanks
also, the less penetration, the less impactful a good count will be.
Say you have a running count of +18 with 3 decks left. Or you have a RC of +6 with one deck left. The latter one is preferable.
The whole point of counting is to give yourself information about unplayed cards. That's why it works and that's why it's dependent on penetration.
Quote: pauldrew00Hey folks,
Really enjoy the content and discussion on here. One of the few active BJ forums I could find...
So I have taken an interest in counting and have been taking advantage of the popular high low/running count method. I am having some difficulty understanding the concept of deck penetration.
According to what I have read, you should avoid games with a deck penetration of 50%. Well, my casino of choice literally half-shoes every time they shuffle. From what I understand, a low deck penetration is bad because it reduces the overall chance of a high true count from occurring. However, what if a high true count DOES occur? Is it still a waste of time to jump in?
Thanks
The problem with poor penetration is, as you say, that there are a lot fewer good counts. But if a good count shows up, absolutely, jump in!!
The other problem with poor penetration is that when a good count shows up, it doesn't last as long (because it quickly gets shuffled away).
Since you talk about "jumping in", I assume that you are back-counting and wonging in. This is really the only way to beat a shoe game with poor pen. If you sit through all those neutral counts you will lose too much waiting for those rare good counts. If you are back counting, you just lose a lot of your time (and not your money) waiting for those good counts. May or may not be worth the time investment, and, also, I don't know how much the casino will tolerate it. IMO you can only stand around nonchalantly for so long and eventually jump in and bet big before it starts to look suspicious, but maybe you have a really good act.
Although, are these shoe games or hand-held? 50% is very bad for 6 or 8 decks but it is playable for double deck, and pretty good for single deck. For double deck I prefer them to deal 1 1/4 decks (or more! more is always better!) but 50% is playable even with a modest spread, particularly if the rules are good so there is a low edge off the top. In a 0.25% house edge DD game (eg, S17 DOA DAS), you have an edge any time the running count is over +1 (since +1 RC will be a TC of > 0.5, assuming that at least one hand has been dealt) so you really do not need a lot of penetration to beat this game.
You're the expert.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe problem with poor penetration is
Quote: AxelWolfYou're the expert.
:) Good one!
I can laugh about it because, of course, my unit is monstrous.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe problem with poor penetration is, as you say, that there are a lot fewer good counts. But if a good count shows up, absolutely, jump in!!
The other problem with poor penetration is that when a good count shows up, it doesn't last as long (because it quickly gets shuffled away).
Since you talk about "jumping in", I assume that you are back-counting and wonging in. This is really the only way to beat a shoe game with poor pen. If you sit through all those neutral counts you will lose too much waiting for those rare good counts. If you are back counting, you just lose a lot of your time (and not your money) waiting for those good counts. May or may not be worth the time investment, and, also, I don't know how much the casino will tolerate it. IMO you can only stand around nonchalantly for so long and eventually jump in and bet big before it starts to look suspicious, but maybe you have a really good act.
Although, are these shoe games or hand-held? 50% is very bad for 6 or 8 decks but it is playable for double deck, and pretty good for single deck. For double deck I prefer them to deal 1 1/4 decks (or more! more is always better!) but 50% is playable even with a modest spread, particularly if the rules are good so there is a low edge off the top. In a 0.25% house edge DD game (eg, S17 DOA DAS), you have an edge any time the running count is over +1 (since +1 RC will be a TC of > 0.5, assuming that at least one hand has been dealt) so you really do not need a lot of penetration to beat this game.
Good info here. I wish I had access to good DD games like that though. My standard local DD games are all H17, although one of them has surrender, which is weird.
With a H17 DAS DOA double deck game, 50% penetration is barely playable. Heads up, maybe.
Quote: AcesAndEightsGood info here. I wish I had access to good DD games like that though. My standard local DD games are all H17, although one of them has surrender, which is weird.
With a H17 DAS DOA double deck game, 50% penetration is barely playable. Heads up, maybe.
Really? I have not played a H17 game in a while, but it's "only" 0.2%. You still have a slight edge with any RC of +2 or more. You probably need to spread aggressively -- not so much widely, as much as, get your max bet out there quickly (the count is not going to last long so you can't be slowly ramping up)
Of course this is all just guessing without a simulation.
My local DD games are even worse. They are S17 but they have really bad rule restrictions like you would expect on a SD game. Restricted doubling, no resplitting, etc. Out of the SD, DD, and 6D, the DD game is actually the worst in the casino. However, in Vegas, there are good DD games -- the Wizard mentioned the MGM one, and I think someone mentioned that there was also a similar game with lower limits at a downtown casino or something.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe problem with poor penetration is, as you say, that there are a lot fewer good counts. But if a good count shows up, absolutely, jump in!!
The other problem with poor penetration is that when a good count shows up, it doesn't last as long (because it quickly gets shuffled away).
Since you talk about "jumping in", I assume that you are back-counting and wonging in. This is really the only way to beat a shoe game with poor pen. If you sit through all those neutral counts you will lose too much waiting for those rare good counts. If you are back counting, you just lose a lot of your time (and not your money) waiting for those good counts. May or may not be worth the time investment, and, also, I don't know how much the casino will tolerate it. IMO you can only stand around nonchalantly for so long and eventually jump in and bet big before it starts to look suspicious, but maybe you have a really good act.
Although, are these shoe games or hand-held? 50% is very bad for 6 or 8 decks but it is playable for double deck, and pretty good for single deck. For double deck I prefer them to deal 1 1/4 decks (or more! more is always better!) but 50% is playable even with a modest spread, particularly if the rules are good so there is a low edge off the top. In a 0.25% house edge DD game (eg, S17 DOA DAS), you have an edge any time the running count is over +1 (since +1 RC will be a TC of > 0.5, assuming that at least one hand has been dealt) so you really do not need a lot of penetration to beat this game.
Awesome. Thanks for the reply. These are 8 deck shoe games. When calculating my TC, should I be dividing my RC by the total number of decks (which in this case is 8) or by the number of decks we are actually playing with which is essentially 4 since the dealer half shoes it
Quote: pauldrew00Awesome. Thanks for the reply. These are 8 deck shoe games. When calculating my TC, should I be dividing my RC by the total number of decks (which in this case is 8) or by the number of decks we are actually playing with which is essentially 4 since the dealer half shoes it
You divide by the total number of decks you have not seen / included in the running count (this includes if you jump in after 1 deck has been dealt but did not count that deck.) So after 2 decks have been dealt, you would divide by 6.
Quote: pauldrew00Awesome. Thanks for the reply. These are 8 deck shoe games. When calculating my TC, should I be dividing my RC by the total number of decks (which in this case is 8) or by the number of decks we are actually playing with which is essentially 4 since the dealer half shoes it
Neither. It's the number of decks which remain (regardless of where the cut card is)
The fact that you ask this question suggests that you don't really understand card counting, so I'd suggest reading up on it a bit more before putting your money at risk (particularly if the money is meaningful to you).
I'll try to give a brief explanation...
Basically, the running count tells you how many excess high cards are left to be dealt. When you start a new shoe, there are the same number of high cards as low cards (so the count is 0). If the running count is positive, it means that there are more high cards than low cards. For example, +5 RC means that there are 5 more high cards than low cards left in the shoe. But you do not care about the total number, you only care about the probability of drawing a high card. So you need to divide by the number of decks left in the shoe. Obviously, if the RC is +5 and there are 7 decks of cards left in the shoe, your chances of drawing a high card are not as good as when the RC is +5 and there is only 1 deck left.
It doesn't matter where the cut card is -- the high cards are just as likely to be above the cut card as below. Your chances of the next card being a 10 do not change just because you move the cut card somewhere else. So, all the matters is the number of cards left in the shoe.
Because it's difficult to estimate how many cards are left in the shoe (because they sit at an angle) it's easier to take a look at the discard tray (where the cards are stacked flat) and subtract. If there are 2 decks in the tray, there are 6 in the shoe, so you divide the RC by 6.
BTW, a half-shoe 8-deck game is truly horrible. Opportunities will be few and far between, and the constant jumping in and out will look suspicious. Is there another casino you can go to?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNeither. It's the number of decks which remain (regardless of where the cut card is)
The fact that you ask this question suggests that you don't really understand card counting, so I'd suggest reading up on it a bit more before putting your money at risk (particularly if the money is meaningful to you).
I'll try to give a brief explanation...
Basically, the running count tells you how many excess high cards are left to be dealt. When you start a new shoe, there are the same number of high cards as low cards (so the count is 0). If the running count is positive, it means that there are more high cards than low cards. For example, +5 RC means that there are 5 more high cards than low cards left in the shoe. But you do not care about the total number, you only care about the probability of drawing a high card. So you need to divide by the number of decks left in the shoe. Obviously, if the RC is +5 and there are 7 decks of cards left in the shoe, your chances of drawing a high card are not as good as when the RC is +5 and there is only 1 deck left.
It doesn't matter where the cut card is -- the high cards are just as likely to be above the cut card as below. Your chances of the next card being a 10 do not change just because you move the cut card somewhere else. So, all the matters is the number of cards left in the shoe.
Because it's difficult to estimate how many cards are left in the shoe (because they sit at an angle) it's easier to take a look at the discard tray (where the cards are stacked flat) and subtract. If there are 2 decks in the tray, there are 6 in the shoe, so you divide the RC by 6.
BTW, a half-shoe 8-deck game is truly horrible. Opportunities will be few and far between, and the constant jumping in and out will look suspicious. Is there another casino you can go to?
Thanks. Yeah, the general consensus seems to be avoid half shoe 8 deck games completely. Unfortunately, most of the smaller casinos in the NE where I am at use either automatic shufflers or have crappy penetration. my local casino also does a 8 deck shoe with 50% pen. I'll keep searching though
Quote: pauldrew00Thanks. Yeah, the general consensus seems to be avoid half shoe 8 deck games completely. Unfortunately, most of the smaller casinos in the NE where I am at use either automatic shufflers or have crappy penetration. my local casino also does a 8 deck shoe with 50% pen. I'll keep searching though
Automatic shufflers or CSMs? Automatic shufflers are fine; CSMs are not.
If there are no good games in your area, your best bet may be to save your money and make a few trips to a better venue every year. If you are playing big enough to get comped rooms and food, this can double as a cheap vacation.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceReally? I have not played a H17 game in a while, but it's "only" 0.2%. You still have a slight edge with any RC of +2 or more. You probably need to spread aggressively -- not so much widely, as much as, get your max bet out there quickly (the count is not going to last long so you can't be slowly ramping up)
Yes, you are correct, playing this game requires an aggressive spread - both in ratio and in betting ramp. When I play it, which is not often, I usually try to go 1-10, which will start to raise eyebrows at double deck. You can get an edge, that's not a problem, but especially with more than one other person at the table, the hourly is s***. With that much cut off, you get a good count after a round or two and BAM, shuffle.
Quote:Of course this is all just guessing without a simulation.
Yes, I have simmed this game in the past, but not recently.
Quote:My local DD games are even worse. They are S17 but they have really bad rule restrictions like you would expect on a SD game. Restricted doubling, no resplitting, etc. Out of the SD, DD, and 6D, the DD game is actually the worst in the casino.
That sucks. I was scouting a local casino in an area I don't get to very often. I sat down at what looked like a decent DD game, empty casino with heads up dealer and about 50% cut. Thinking in my head "okay I can play this." First time I got a soft double hand, guy says nope! Double 9-10-11 only. Okay then. See ya later.
Quote:However, in Vegas, there are good DD games -- the Wizard mentioned the MGM one, and I think someone mentioned that there was also a similar game with lower limits at a downtown casino or something.
Yes. I love Vegas. So many playable games at my level that I can't find at home. Between the S17 games and the DD games with good pen, I'll never run out of games to play on a short trip. I doubt there is a S17 DD game downtown, although I wouldn't rule it out (never seen it myself, though). But there are plenty of DAS DOA H17 DD games with good pen. Depending on the crowd, time of day, and specific crew working, you might need to leave after a few big bets though :).
Basically any CC that is worth its weight in salt can do this. Good rule of thumb is 1 to 4 or 1 to # of decks, whichever is greater.
Edit: This only applies to shoe games. If you find a good single deck game somehow then spreading 1:4 is fine and if you find a good double deck game spreading 1:8 is fine. 4 decks or more usually requires 1:16 to beat with enough profit to make it worthwhile.
Quote: geoff1:4 isn't worth much. Generally you want to spread 1:16 or it's not worth your time.
Edit: This only applies to shoe games. If you find a good single deck game somehow then spreading 1:4 is fine and if you find a good double deck game spreading 1:8 is fine. 4 decks or more usually requires 1:16 to beat with enough profit to make it worthwhile.
Lots of people have different definitions of "worthwhile," and your hourly will depend heavily on the penetration, how many other players, and how fast the dealer is.
I have simmed specific 6 deck games and gotten a worthwhile (to me) win rate with a 1-10 spread. That win rate was about 1.5 base bets/hour. Which, yeah, if your base bet is $10, that sucks. But mine is generally $25, and I'm cool with making an expected $35-$40/hour in my leisure time :).
