In case you didn't believe in negative variance...

This is really best answered via simulation. I don't purely flat-bet, so I can't tell that experience. But I do know that I've played plenty of shoes betting 1-2 units because the count sucked, and being down 50 units is *common*. Being down 100 units less so, but still possible in a single "trip" of 48 hours or so. I really like the trip bankroll recommendation of 150-200 min-bets. It's only failed on me once, and I was playing stupid when I lost that amount.

So... it sounds like the flat bet variance for a zero percent advantage player is 200. That sounds about right to me.

I was thinking the number is 140 if you quit a shoe after about 5 straight losses. I know some will say that when you quit does not matter, but other experts say that if you do this that you can reduce negative variance.

Quote: KenV

So... it sounds like the flat bet variance for a zero percent advantage player is 200. That sounds about right to me.

I was thinking the number is 140 if you quit a shoe after about 5 straight losses. I know some will say that when you quit does not matter, but other experts say that if you do this that you can reduce negative variance.

That's not what "variance" means.