The 1 deck strategy for blackjack seems a little off
Under dealer hits S17 and 1 deck game, the strategy for 7,7 vs 10 shows surrender. While 8,8 vs 10 shows split.
Seems off right? At least intuitively I think it's wrong. If i'm wrong then damn, some magic math must be going on here to surrender a 14.
Quote: Neutrinohttps://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/
Under dealer hits S17 and 1 deck game, the strategy for 7,7 shows surrender. While 8,8 shows split.
Seems off right? At least intuitively I think it's wrong. If i'm wrong then damn, some magic math must be going on here to surrender a 14.
It's single deck. The effect of removal is very large, and 7 is a VERY important card here (7,7 v 10)
Think about it for a bit. It should not be counter-intuitive if you really understand the game.
What you might mean is 7,7 vs. 10 advises you to surrender/stand instead of hit (as all other 14 vs 10).
The key element is: With a non-paired 14 there are four 7s available to be drawn to make your hand 21 which gives a significant edge especially against the non-BJ dealer 10. However, with a paired 14 hand (holding 7,7), there are only two of those 7s available which makes every hit less favourable.
Quote: Neutrinohttps://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/
Under dealer hits S17 and 1 deck game, the strategy for 7,7 shows surrender. While 8,8 shows split.
Seems off right? At least intuitively I think it's wrong. If i'm wrong then damn, some magic math must be going on here to surrender a 14.
I tend to ignore composition-dependent plays. However, I do not play single-deck. If any CD-play warranted it's own index, this one is it.
Quote: MangoJYou cannot compare splitting 7,7 with 8,8 for any number of decks.
What you might mean is 7,7 vs. 10 advises you to surrender/stand instead of hit (as all other 14 vs 10).
The key element is: With a non-paired 14 there are four 7s available to be drawn to make your hand 21 which gives a significant edge especially against the non-BJ dealer 10. However, with a paired 14 hand (holding 7,7), there are only two of those 7s available which makes every hit less favourable.
That's only half the story -- if that was it, 6's would be almost as valuable as 7's, and they are not even close.
The key is that when you have 14 and the dealer has 10, and you are considering hitting, there are two unknown cards that you care about -- the top card in the deck (which you will get if you hit), and the dealer's hole card.
7 is the only card that strongly favors hitting if it's in either of those locations. (compare to 6: a 6 as the next card strongly favors hitting, but as the dealer's hole card it strongly favors standing)
For this reason, a 7 is about 3 times as important as any other card in this decision (ie, if you were creating a counting index for this decision, the 7 has an absolute value about 3x as high as any other card).
Quote: NeutrinoDamn... Ok. And what about reason for not surrendering 8,8 vs 10? I know that in 6 deck the strategy is to surrender
The 6D strategy is to split. The reason is that 8 is a vast improvement over 16, just enough to warrant the extra money. Splitting 6s is a much smaller improvement, for example, since 12 is a stronger hand than 16, and 6 is a weaker hand than 8. It does not warrant the extra money.
In mathematical terms, the reason you split 8s is because it's EV of approximately -.49 is greater than the surrender EV -.5.
