Scooter77
Scooter77
Joined: Jun 12, 2013
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 62
March 7th, 2014 at 1:29:52 PM permalink
Question:

If I知 playing blackjack under the following rules:

Continuous shuffle
2 decks
Double any two cards
DAS
S17
1 split

Betting $25 per hand, five hands per game round
Basic strategy followed except for double hard 8 vs. 5 or 6
it痴 not for me, I知 calling in for a friend :)

What are my chances of winning/losing the following amounts after 100 rounds (500 hands)?
(and please, how would I do this calculation for myself in future, just in case I'm smart enough to understand)

-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000

Thanks.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
March 8th, 2014 at 12:30:10 AM permalink
Quote: Scooter77

Question:

If I知 playing blackjack under the following rules:

Continuous shuffle
2 decks
Double any two cards
DAS
S17
1 split

Betting $25 per hand, five hands per game round
Basic strategy followed except for double hard 8 vs. 5 or 6
it痴 not for me, I知 calling in for a friend :)

What are my chances of winning/losing the following amounts after 100 rounds (500 hands)?
(and please, how would I do this calculation for myself in future, just in case I'm smart enough to understand)

-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000

Thanks.



If you want an accurate answer you will need to simulate it.

If you want a less accurate answer you can look at the EV and the standard deviation and approximate your possible results with a normal distribution. Note that the hands are correlated so you need to look at the standard deviation of 5 hands at once (and consider 100 trials at 5x EV) rather than 500 trials.

100 trials seems like a small number to use a normal approximation, but maybe someone with more knowledge of stats than I can have chime in with how far off the approximation will be.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
Joined: Feb 5, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 1342
March 9th, 2014 at 6:54:54 PM permalink
Quote: Scooter77

Question:

If I知 playing blackjack under the following rules:

Continuous shuffle
2 decks
Double any two cards
DAS
S17
1 split

Betting $25 per hand, five hands per game round
Basic strategy followed except for double hard 8 vs. 5 or 6
it痴 not for me, I知 calling in for a friend :)

What are my chances of winning/losing the following amounts after 100 rounds (500 hands)?
(and please, how would I do this calculation for myself in future, just in case I'm smart enough to understand)

-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1000

Thanks.



I can tell you that your chances of losing it all are about 10%. Your chances of winning or losing proportional amounts are going to come to close to mirroring that, except slightly favor losing it. So your chances of winning a grand are about 3%. Winning $500 prob around 7%. These aren't exact, but they are close. Your best chance at winning $1000 is to prob bet $250 a hand.. Realistically, if you are betting $25 with a $500 bankroll on 100 hands, can't really expect to win more than $150 before you get into the statistically unlikely realm.
Scooter77
Scooter77
Joined: Jun 12, 2013
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 62
March 10th, 2014 at 9:07:26 AM permalink
Thanks guys (and/or girls) for the responses.
I guess that a different bet amount and/or a lower win target would be more prudent at that level since there seems to be only a 10% chance of hitting the highest targets.


Thanks

  • Jump to: