can anyone help me do a computer simulation for counting....

first of all , this is about baccarat not blackjack

but I think only blackjack counter will be interested in counting , so I asking help for this topic here , sorry if I put it wrong


what I expected is want to lower the house edge of baccarat for 0.2% or more

I know there is a simple counting method to count the favor for banker or player from Thorps

(0 1 1 2 2 -1 -2 -2 -1 0) for the card 0 thru 9


if i only bet on banker for all 0 or above rc , and dont bet on any negative , how much house edge is for banker?

since i only want to lower the house edge and not beat the game

thanks for any helping to sim the above counting formula , and I want to know how can I lower the house edge for 0.2% or more ,

thanks a lot

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/

This will give a counting system. (looks like the wizard used 8 decks). To get the edges down .2% I believe the pivots are around

Banker: 85791
Player: 103508

If I have some time I will look into the system you listed

that seems it at least need a true count of +6 to get this small 0.2% BETTER FOR BANKER

???

Quote: beyond14

that seems it at least need a true count of +6 to get this small 0.2% BETTER FOR BANKER

???

Card counting Baccarat in the traditional sense, i.e. to get an advantage on the Player/Baker bets, is a non-starter. You can cut into the edge, BARELY. It's really only useful for side bets, and even then it's barely a workable strategy, depending on the parameters of course (side bets offered, max bets allowed on the side bets, etc.)

The Dragon 7 / Panda 8 bets at EZ Bacc can be profitable, as has been reported by the Wiz and others, but generally the bets carry a $25 max.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Card counting Baccarat in the traditional sense, i.e. to get an advantage on the Player/Baker bets, is a non-starter. You can cut into the edge, BARELY. It's really only useful for side bets, and even then it's barely a workable strategy, depending on the parameters of course (side bets offered, max bets allowed on the side bets, etc.)

The Dragon 7 / Panda 8 bets at EZ Bacc can be profitable, as has been reported by the Wiz and others, but generally the bets carry a $25 max.

For whatever reason, he is not interested in getting an advantage on the main bet; only interested in cutting down the house edge.

In another thread he mentioned that he played in some french casinos (where the blackjack is dealt from a CSM but has a 0.15% player edge due to ES and other favorable rules) and also that he was getting 0.8% of his action back in dead chips (here), so that might be why.

Having said that, I'm not sure why you would want to bring the edge in baccarat down to the point where the dead chips make it break-even, when you can just play blackjack instead and have an actual edge, plus dead chips.

Note that, assuming 5% commission, the house edge on the banker bet in baccarat is a little over 1%, so you want to do better than cutting the edge down by 0.2%. And that is just to break even. And, dead chips are not just as good as cash (since you can't cash them out; you have to bet them, and presumably you don't get more dead chips for the dead chip action you put down).

Grosjean has a very good article about what to do with dead chips on beyondcounting.com.

In any case, blackjack with those favorable rules seems like clearly a better play; I'm not sure why you are spending time worrying about baccarat. Is this for cover or something? Do they not like you putting 100% of your action in at blackjack?

i found a treasure that make me
earn every bet in baccarat
thats why i want to earn more
but for true count 6 thats nonsense
to do so

Quote: beyond14

i found a treasure that make me
earn every bet in baccarat
thats why i want to earn more
but for true count 6 thats nonsense
to do so

I'm confused. What do you mean by "treasure" and "earn every bet"?

Quote: beyond14

...nonsense....

That's the only part of your post that made sense to me.

Quote: beyond14

i found a treasure that make me
earn every bet in baccarat
thats why i want to earn more
but for true count 6 thats nonsense
to do so

Quote: AcesAndEights

That's the only part of your post that made sense to me.

In fairness, I suspect that we just have a language barrier here. His posts about blackjack made perfect sense -- he was talking about playing a basically break-even game (actually +0.15%) and getting 0.8% of his action in dead chips on top of it for a decent little advantage play. With a big enough bankroll, this is definitely playable. I would be all over this.

He seems to just be asking if it's possible to count to shave the edge in baccarat slightly. It's a completely reasonable question to ask. I just don't understand WHY he wants to do it, unless he gets more dead chips back in baccarat than in BJ. The thing is, the house knows full well what the edge in baccarat is, and the edge is the same against the good players as it is against the bad (there is no skill in baccarat), so I don't know how they could afford to give away much to baccarat players. Blackjack is different because it's a skill game -- the player may very well have an edge with perfect play, but how many people play perfectly? In baccarat everyone plays "perfectly" (ignoring the difference in edge between player and banker)

That bunny looked like it had two pancakes on its head.

Quote: Wizard

That bunny looked like it had two pancakes on its head.

What a time to be alive!