Exploiting Asymmetry

I was reading some stuff written by JSTAT, who claims to have a count for beating mini-bac. I'm not sure exactly what pertained to what, but essentially I was interested in his reference to asymmetry, as it was similar to an early thread I posted about taking insurance when the count is 0 just because all the cards that came out that hand were non 10s.
Assume you use hi-lo. Say somehow you have absolute knowledge that more 9s came out than 7s, or more threes than fives. You don't know how many. Is this information useful in any practical way?

I haven't heard of any way to count a baccarat game. It may exist, but I doubt it. The reason why counting cards work in blackjack is that some cards are better for the player than they are the dealer. With baccarat the first two cards are essentially equally valuable to both parties so the value in the count would come from the third card. If someone has a baccarat sim and finds when the player gets a certain value for the third card they win or lose more then keeping a side count could become useful.

It can't exist. Someone wrote a simulation that could work out the edge for each bet with a perfect knowledge of the discards, and it would already require a greater spread than you'd be likely to manage in the real world.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I was reading some stuff written by JSTAT, who claims to have a count for beating mini-bac. I'm not sure exactly what pertained to what, but essentially I was interested in his reference to asymmetry, as it was similar to an early thread I posted about taking insurance when the count is 0 just because all the cards that came out that hand were non 10s.
Assume you use hi-lo. Say somehow you have absolute knowledge that more 9s came out than 7s, or more threes than fives. You don't know how many. Is this information useful in any practical way?

Some sort of insurance bet combined with counting the 6 deck shoe?
Is the insurance one of the ones listed here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/insurance/

In theory the effect of card removal is not linear in Blackjack, so knowing that more 9s came out than 7s could be useful, especially if it was a lot more 9s, but I can't imagine the effect would be worth it compared to just counting with hi-lo.

Guys, I don't care about baccarat. I'm just telling you how the question, which is a blackjack question, came into my mind. Since your inquiries have kind of taken over the thread, from what I understood, his method was to count for a particular side bet and it had something to do with 8s and 9s, and I assume, he bet the minimum on all the baccarat main hands. I didn't read too deeply, because I will not ever be playing baccarat. And I have no idea if his system works, nor do I care. However, he mentions asymmetry between 8s and 9s as part of his system. I found the asymmetry part interesting (that's the only part I found interesting), so I am asking if it has any application towards blackjack. Hypothetically, it does, you know a borderline 'no' insurance decision, you should take insurance when every card that comes out is a non-ten. But how often does that happen? Is there anyway to extract value from known asymmetry in the count?

Quote: Sonuvabish

Guys, I don't care about baccarat. I'm just telling you how the question, which is a blackjack question, came into my mind. Since your inquiries have kind of taken over the thread, from what I understood, his method was to count for a particular side bet and it had something to do with 8s and 9s, and I assume, he bet the minimum on all the baccarat main hands. I didn't read too deeply, because I will not ever be playing baccarat. And I have no idea if his system works, nor do I care. However, he mentions asymmetry between 8s and 9s as part of his system. I found the asymmetry part interesting (that's the only part I found interesting), so I am asking if it has any application towards blackjack. Hypothetically, it does, you know a borderline 'no' insurance decision, you should take insurance when every card that comes out is a non-ten. But how often does that happen? Is there anyway to extract value from known asymmetry in the count?

Use of the word "asymmetry" does very little to impress the knowledgeable individual.
Asymmetry is stating the lack of proportion. Unless I am mistaken, the purpose of all counting systems is to identify such a situation.

I understand your lack of interest in Baccarat, yet the counting system mentioned has caught your interest due to the mention of 8's and 9's. I can only assume the identification of 8's and 9's has peaked your interest due to the "insurance problem" in your other thread.

For those who are reading this thread because the mentioned count system was claimed to "work" for a particular Baccarat side bet, we might as well get this out of the way right now- those two cards (8 & 9) are indeed important to identify for the purposes of that particular side bet (Dragon 7); HOWEVER, that same system employs the same tag for "opposite" cards.
When considering effect of removal (EOR) of certain cards for purposes of identifying an advantageous situation, the system should be engineered to that effect for any level of acceptable efficiency.
If, for the Dragon 7 side bet, it benefits us to deplete the 8's and 9's while retaining those cards most likely to increase the possibility of a 3-card total of 7 (4-7), then we need to have the proper means of identifying and separating those groups.
Would someone please explain to me how a system that has an identical tag (-1) for 2-9 would accomplish this?
To make a long story short, the count system being discussed was not tailored for the bet in question; furthermore, I fail to see how it could even be considered viable for that particular use.

Now that we have addressed the "Baccarat issue", let's take a look at your real concern (Blackjack).
I will neither promote nor denigrate the mentioned count system.
All counting systems have inherent compromises; there is no free lunch.

In conclusion, it seems that use of the word "asymmetry" is nothing more than an effort to further promote a claim; however, we must have the understanding that discussion of a counting system of any type is naturally already discussing asymmetry.
We are using the count system to exploit a lack of proportion. The proportions with which we are most concerned determine which system is most beneficial to our needs.

Is there any parts of BJ play which remain unexplored, but baccarat leaves a lot of questions unanswered. When I play bac I do count, but my counting method has nothing to do with asymmetry or card removal. It's based solely on degree of cards being mixed up in a deck. I increase my bets if the deck is predictable or in other words I know which card will be next .

Quote: rob45

Use of the word "asymmetry" does very little to impress the knowledgeable individual.
Asymmetry is stating the lack of proportion. Unless I am mistaken, the purpose of all counting systems is to identify such a situation.

I understand your lack of interest in Baccarat, yet the counting system mentioned has caught your interest due to the mention of 8's and 9's. I can only assume the identification of 8's and 9's has peaked your interest due to the "insurance problem" in your other thread.

For those who are reading this thread because the mentioned count system was claimed to "work" for a particular Baccarat side bet, we might as well get this out of the way right now- those two cards (8 & 9) are indeed important to identify for the purposes of that particular side bet (Dragon 7); HOWEVER, that same system employs the same tag for "opposite" cards.
When considering effect of removal (EOR) of certain cards for purposes of identifying an advantageous situation, the system should be engineered to that effect for any level of acceptable efficiency.
If, for the Dragon 7 side bet, it benefits us to deplete the 8's and 9's while retaining those cards most likely to increase the possibility of a 3-card total of 7 (4-7), then we need to have the proper means of identifying and separating those groups.
Would someone please explain to me how a system that has an identical tag (-1) for 2-9 would accomplish this?
To make a long story short, the count system being discussed was not tailored for the bet in question; furthermore, I fail to see how it could even be considered viable for that particular use.

Now that we have addressed the "Baccarat issue", let's take a look at your real concern (Blackjack).
I will neither promote nor denigrate the mentioned count system.
All counting systems have inherent compromises; there is no free lunch.

In conclusion, it seems that use of the word "asymmetry" is nothing more than an effort to further promote a claim; however, we must have the understanding that discussion of a counting system of any type is naturally already discussing asymmetry.
We are using the count system to exploit a lack of proportion. The proportions with which we are most concerned determine which system is most beneficial to our needs.

Although you managed to identify the correct side-bet, I think all you did, if anything, was help people understand me less. In math, there's the 2nd derivative. I am referring to asymmetry within the system, not the system itself. 8s and 9s were not what I found interesting, he touched on a concept that he termed 'asymmetry' that I had previously thought about. I don't care to speculate on whether he thought this word was cool and thought it would make his system popular, it is simply the only reference that I have ever found by another possible AP that describes a concept that is at least related to what is not being discussed here. I am not ltrying to make a multi-parameter count out it, but I am looking to see if any tiny tweak could be made. I've only had I think one serious response that appeared to give the question some thought. Perhaps I need a simulator for a question like this.

Your OP was kind of nonsensical, to be honest.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Say somehow you have absolute knowledge that more 9s came out than 7s, or more threes than fives.

Somehow? What does that mean? If you're going to try to make use of this information, you have to have a plan to collect it. A side count, basically

Quote: Sonuvabish

Is this information useful in any practical way?

I doubt it. You can look at EORs to start with.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I am not ltrying to make a multi-parameter count out it, but I am looking to see if any tiny tweak could be made. I've only had I think one serious response that appeared to give the question some thought. Perhaps I need a simulator for a question like this.

Yes. Yes you do.

" I increase my bets if the deck is predictable or in other words I know which card will be next . "

And winning is just that simple. thanks for sharing !

Quote: AcesAndEights

Your OP was kind of nonsensical, to be honest.

Somehow? What does that mean? If you're going to try to make use of this information, you have to have a plan to collect it. A side count, basically
.

I have information like that when I count a certain way; somehow means it is given. I already know general betting and playing EORs; if you see how that information is useful here, please elaborate. Buzz, I have no idea what you are talking about, I did not say that.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I have information like that when I count a certain way; somehow means it is given. I already know general betting and playing EORs; if you see how that information is useful here, please elaborate. Buzz, I have no idea what you are talking about, I did not say that.

Other than betting more when advantageous and making basic strategy exceptions, what else are you looking to get out of a count?

Really I just don't think anyone has any idea what you're going for other than you. Write a simulation and figure it out yourself.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Quote: Sonuvabish

I have information like that when I count a certain way; somehow means it is given. I already know general betting and playing EORs; if you see how that information is useful here, please elaborate. Buzz, I have no idea what you are talking about, I did not say that.

Other than betting more when advantageous and making basic strategy exceptions, what else are you looking to get out of a count?

Really I just don't think anyone has any idea what you're going for other than you. Write a simulation and figure it out yourself.

In case I am confusing anyone as you may be indicating, I am simply looking for a more accurate count, which would increase EV. If there is any use to this information, I do not think it would complicate matters any for me to incorporate it. Switching to a multi-parameter, not my cup of tea. I suppose I probably will have to borrow a simulation tool, as I mentioned earlier.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Buzz, I have no idea what you are talking about, I did not say that.

Buzzard never said that you did.

Quote: rob45

Buzzard never said that you did.

No, I didn't. He quoted something I didn't say. I don't know who said it. I didn't say he said it, I said I don't what he's talking about it. He's probably enjoying the confusion.

I'm still not 100% clear on what exactly you want, but if you want to use the fact that the different values in blackjack have different EoR then your best bet is to use a system like the Zen Count over Hi-Lo. If you just mean can you use the knowledge of having a large number of 9/8's come out in Hi-Lo then you can. It would change your stand/hit decision on 12/13. The gain from doing so is not very large though so anyone who would be willing to devote the time to do it is probably better off using Zen Count or Wong Halves which factor in more numbers.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Quote: AcesAndEights

Quote: Sonuvabish

I have information like that when I count a certain way; somehow means it is given. I already know general betting and playing EORs; if you see how that information is useful here, please elaborate. Buzz, I have no idea what you are talking about, I did not say that.

Other than betting more when advantageous and making basic strategy exceptions, what else are you looking to get out of a count?

Really I just don't think anyone has any idea what you're going for other than you. Write a simulation and figure it out yourself.

In case I am confusing anyone as you may be indicating, I am simply looking for a more accurate count, which would increase EV. If there is any use to this information, I do not think it would complicate matters any for me to incorporate it. Switching to a multi-parameter, not my cup of tea. I suppose I probably will have to borrow a simulation tool, as I mentioned earlier.

If you feel that your skill level has progressed to the point of obtaining the most from your current strategy, yet you require more, then why are you not investigating and considering other available strategies?

Have you visited some of the dedicated Blackjack websites to do comparisons amongst the various strategies already available?
Not only are comparison tables available, but some of these sources also have strategy advisors.

Quote: Buzzard

" I increase my bets if the deck is predictable or in other words I know which card will be next . "

And winning is just that simple. thanks for sharing !

I know which card is next, on average, 1 out of 13 times, lol.

Quote: geoff

I'm still not 100% clear on what exactly you want, but if you want to use the fact that the different values in blackjack have different EoR then your best bet is to use a system like the Zen Count over Hi-Lo. If you just mean can you use the knowledge of having a large number of 9/8's come out in Hi-Lo then you can. It would change your stand/hit decision on 12/13. The gain from doing so is not very large though so anyone who would be willing to devote the time to do it is probably better off using Zen Count or Wong Halves which factor in more numbers.

The count I use now is stronger than Zen, it's about the same strength as Halves. Hi-lo is my basic default, but not my advanced. 9s and 8s is just what I read about in that guy's baccarat count that gave me the idea. It doesn't matter what cards, but it's not for making multi-parameter play decisions because I am not side counting. I'll try to make it as simple as I can. Say you are using hi-lo. When you start the shoe, every card that comes it is a 9 or 7. How many more 7s than 9s would you need to raise your bet and how many would you need to double 9 against 2?

Quote: Sonuvabish

Say you are using hi-lo. When you start the shoe, every card that comes it is a 9 or 7. How many more 7s than 9s would you need to raise your bet and how many would you need to double 9 against 2?

As you know, Hi-Lo recognizes both the 9 and the 7 as neutral. If you choose to adhere to that strategy, then you do not raise the following wager, and you do not double.
If you choose not to adhere to the selected strategy (based upon your knowledge of excessive neutral cards being depleted), then you need to consider if it is prudent to even be using the selected strategy (in this example, Hi-Lo) in the first place.

Either you accept that the selected strategy (Hi-Lo) has inherent compromises (as with any other strategy) and that your example is rare enough so as to have negligible impact on overall expectation for that strategy, or you switch to a strategy which provides more information related to your concern.

If you are not satisfied with the common strategies already developed and available, then by all means feel free to develop your own.
To do so, you're going to need to invest in (or have access to) some tools, only one of which is a simulator.

Quote: rob45

As you know, Hi-Lo recognizes both the 9 and the 7 as neutral. If you choose to adhere to that strategy, then you do not raise the following wager, and you do not double.
If you choose not to adhere to the selected strategy (based upon your knowledge of excessive neutral cards being depleted), then you need to consider if it is prudent to even be using the selected strategy (in this example, Hi-Lo) in the first place.

Either you accept that the selected strategy (Hi-Lo) has inherent compromises (as with any other strategy) and that your example is rare enough so as to have negligible impact on overall expectation for that strategy, or you switch to a strategy which provides more information related to your concern.

If you are not satisfied with the common strategies already developed and available, then by all means feel free to develop your own.
To do so, you're going to need to invest in (or have access to) some tools, only one of which is a simulator.

Seriously? Nothing personal, but when I say perhaps I need a simulator, then repeat it, and suddenly people start suggesting I need a simulator, it makes me feel as if people are getting these ideas from me then pretending they thought of them on their own to sound smart, ignoring the fact they are not helping. I am not going to consider whether or not my count is prudent based on someone's failure to understand my attempt to give a simple example. And you certainly do not need a simulator to develop a non-commercial count; you don't improve by following blindly. Ever heard of the 10,6,5,4,3 count? Me neither, but I'm sure it works better than the Ace-Five count. Dude, you are an obvious novice. And you never explained your last comment claiming it was not a misquote. I don't mean to be snide to anyone, just frustrated. Maybe we should let the thread die. Edit: I guess that's hi-opt one without the side-count. Well, I just made it up now and it was accidentally the same thing. Count the 7 instead of the 3, there ya go, a brand new system better than Ace-Five.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Seriously? Nothing personal, but when I say perhaps I need a simulator, then repeat it, and suddenly people start suggesting I need a simulator, it makes me feel as if people are getting these ideas from me then pretending they thought of them on their own to sound smart, ignoring the fact they are not helping.

Nothing personal here, either.
Perhaps it would benefit you to realize that you are asking the same types of questions in more than one thread. Just so you know, that practice is highly discouraged here. You have been advised before this that a simulator would best answer your question.
Please take note of this quote in particular:

Quote: anonimuss (February 12, 2014 in response to Sonuvabish)

Your questions were answered. Buy a sim program.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I am not going to consider whether or not my count is prudent based on someone's failure to understand my attempt to give a simple example.

The example you give indicates you are not satisfied with the compromises inherent in the mentioned strategy; otherwise, you wouldn't be asking these questions.
Rather than faulting others for "misunderstanding" you, perhaps your time is better spent determining why you are even asking the questions.

Quote: Sonuvabish

And you certainly do not need a simulator to develop a non-commercial count; you don't improve by following blindly.

Gotta love the individuals who contradict themselves in the same sentence.

Quote: Sonuvabish

Ever heard of the 10,6,5,4,3 count? Me neither, but I'm sure it works better than the Ace-Five count.

Really? What makes you so sure? Are you sure that you're sure?

Quote: Sonuvabish

Dude, you are an obvious novice.

SSSHHH, don't tell the others. I would not like it if I were to be considered an amateur AP instead of one of the professionals such as yourself.
If/when the day comes that I do go professional, please remind me to spend more time making the big money instead of asking others how to do something (all while berating them for the answers they have given).

Quote: Sonuvabish

And you never explained your last comment claiming it was not a misquote.

No explanation is needed. You need to read your own thread.

Quote: Sonuvabish

I don't mean to be snide to anyone

If you do not intend to be snide, then don't be snide.

Quote: rob45

Nothing personal here, either.
Perhaps it would benefit you to realize that you are asking the same types of questions in more than one thread. Just so you know, that practice is highly discouraged here. You have been advised before this that a simulator would best answer your question.
Please take note of this quote in particular:

The example you give indicates you are not satisfied with the compromises inherent in the mentioned strategy; otherwise, you wouldn't be asking these questions.
Rather than faulting others for "misunderstanding" you, perhaps your time is better spent determining why you are even asking the questions.

Gotta love the individuals who contradict themselves in the same sentence.

Really? What makes you so sure? Are you sure that you're sure?

SSSHHH, don't tell the others. I would not like it if I were to be considered an amateur AP instead of one of the professionals such as yourself.
If/when the day comes that I do go professional, please remind me to spend more time making the big money instead of asking others how to do something (all while berating them for the answers they have given).

No explanation is needed. You need to read your own thread.

If you do not intend to be snide, then don't be snide.

Thank you for your contribution. It's value is immeasurable.