A few questions related to blackjack.
I have just watched a Youtube video where Henry Tamburin explains the most misplayed hands in blackjack. In top 3 seems to be 16 vs dealer 10. He always advice to surrender if the rules allow it. (I agree) And he further says "if the game does not allow surrender, then you always have to hit a two card hard 16 (no 8s) vs dealer 10 and always stand on a 3 or more card hard 16".
- This is where my question come from: - OK, I can understand that the advice is based on basic strategy only (otherways a TC of zero or more would call for a stand even on a two card hard 16 vs dealer 10). But what part I do not understand from his advice is "always stand on 3 or more cards totaling a hard 16 against a dealer 10" - Without counting I can see it correct only for single deck games, but is that affirmation also correct for two or more decks ? (I believe not!) (he does not specify about any number of decks)
2) This question is probably more complicated but I believe it was raised in the past, so hopefully someone does know the answer:
Lets say we have a blackjack game where if played with perfect basic strategy the house edge would be 0,00 - My question would be how much is Illustrious 18 really worth ? (Yes I know it greatly depends on the number of decks and penetration, and I also know that the most important of it is Insurance bet - about 30% of entire Illustrious 18 value, and also that the first 12 bets of it adds up to 90% of its value.) - I just don`t know what is the real EV value of Illustrious 18, and this is what I want to learn.
So I am thinking at the following experiment: - We consider a breakeven edge game with the following rules: single deck with 50% penetration, bjk pays 3 to 2, dealer stand on soft 17, OBO, double on hard 9, 10 and 11 only, double after split allowed, late surrender, no re-split. House edge 0.00 using basic strategy for one deck. Lets say we use Hi-Lo count and we are always flat betting, but we deviate from basic strategy applying all Illustrious 18 deviations. (note only Illustrious 18, Fab 4 Surrenders not included)
- How much the EV would change to our favor ? But if instead a 50% penetration we would have only 14% penetration ?
I also wonder if in a double deck game with a 75% penetration is as worthy as in a single deck with a 50% penetration ?
And I also wonder how much it fades in an 8 deck game with only 50% penetration ? (does still have any considerable value ?)
3) Same dates and questions as at 2), but applied to "Fab 4 Surrenders". - How much value do they have for the above situations ?
Quote: PlayHunter1) The first one should be simple, yet I am in doubts, so I ask more experienced people:
I have just watched a Youtube video where Henry Tamburin explains the most misplayed hands in blackjack. In top 3 seems to be 16 vs dealer 10. He always advice to surrender if the rules allow it. (I agree) And he further says "if the game does not allow surrender, then you always have to hit a two card hard 16 (no 8s) vs dealer 10 and always stand on a 3 or more card hard 16".
- This is where my question come from: - OK, I can understand that the advice is based on basic strategy only (otherways a TC of zero or more would call for a stand even on a two card hard 16 vs dealer 10). But what part I do not understand from his advice is "always stand on 3 or more cards totaling a hard 16 against a dealer 10" - Without counting I can see it correct only for single deck games, but is that affirmation also correct for two or more decks ? (I believe not!) (he does not specify about any number of decks)
2) This question is probably more complicated but I believe it was raised in the past, so hopefully someone does know the answer:
Lets say we have a blackjack game where if played with perfect basic strategy the house edge would be 0,00 - My question would be how much is Illustrious 18 really worth ? (Yes I know it greatly depends on the number of decks and penetration, and I also know that the most important of it is Insurance bet - about 30% of entire Illustrious 18 value, and also that the first 12 bets of it adds up to 90% of its value.) - I just don`t know what is the real EV value of Illustrious 18, and this is what I want to learn.
So I am thinking at the following experiment: - We consider a breakeven edge game with the following rules: single deck with 50% penetration, bjk pays 3 to 2, dealer stand on soft 17, OBO, double on hard 9, 10 and 11 only, double after split allowed, late surrender, no re-split. House edge 0.00 using basic strategy for one deck. Lets say we use Hi-Lo count and we are always flat betting, but we deviate from basic strategy applying all Illustrious 18 deviations. (note only Illustrious 18, Fab 4 Surrenders not included)
- How much the EV would change to our favor ? But if instead a 50% penetration we would have only 14% penetration ?
I also wonder if in a double deck game with a 75% penetration is as worthy as in a single deck with a 50% penetration ?
And I also wonder how much it fades in an 8 deck game with only 50% penetration ? (does still have any considerable value ?)
3) Same dates and questions as at 2), but applied to "Fab 4 Surrenders". - How much value do they have for the above situations ?
Q1 - basically, the cards necessary to make a multi-card 16 would normally be of a low value…as such, those are the same cards that would be needed to reach a hand 21 or under if you hit the multi-card 16…since those cards are no longer available, it is better to stand
Quote: aceofspadesQ1 - basically, the cards necessary to make a multi-card 16 would normally be of a low value…as such, those are the same cards that would be needed to reach a hand 21 or under if you hit the multi-card 16…since those cards are no longer available, it is better to stand
So it is correct to stand with K + 2 + 4 against a dealer 10 even if we are playing in an 8 deck game ?
Quote: PlayHunterSo it is correct to stand with K + 2 + 4 against a dealer 10 even if we are playing in an 8 deck game ?
According to the Wizard's Appendix 18
Quote: PlayHunter1) The first one should be simple, yet I am in doubts, so I ask more experienced people:
I have just watched a Youtube video where Henry Tamburin explains the most misplayed hands in blackjack. In top 3 seems to be 16 vs dealer 10. He always advice to surrender if the rules allow it. (I agree) And he further says "if the game does not allow surrender, then you always have to hit a two card hard 16 (no 8s) vs dealer 10 and always stand on a 3 or more card hard 16".
- This is where my question come from: - OK, I can understand that the advice is based on basic strategy only (otherways a TC of zero or more would call for a stand even on a two card hard 16 vs dealer 10). But what part I do not understand from his advice is "always stand on 3 or more cards totaling a hard 16 against a dealer 10" - Without counting I can see it correct only for single deck games, but is that affirmation also correct for two or more decks ? (I believe not!) (he does not specify about any number of decks)
2) This question is probably more complicated but I believe it was raised in the past, so hopefully someone does know the answer:
Lets say we have a blackjack game where if played with perfect basic strategy the house edge would be 0,00 - My question would be how much is Illustrious 18 really worth ? (Yes I know it greatly depends on the number of decks and penetration, and I also know that the most important of it is Insurance bet - about 30% of entire Illustrious 18 value, and also that the first 12 bets of it adds up to 90% of its value.) - I just don`t know what is the real EV value of Illustrious 18, and this is what I want to learn.
So I am thinking at the following experiment: - We consider a breakeven edge game with the following rules: single deck with 50% penetration, bjk pays 3 to 2, dealer stand on soft 17, OBO, double on hard 9, 10 and 11 only, double after split allowed, late surrender, no re-split. House edge 0.00 using basic strategy for one deck. Lets say we use Hi-Lo count and we are always flat betting, but we deviate from basic strategy applying all Illustrious 18 deviations. (note only Illustrious 18, Fab 4 Surrenders not included)
- How much the EV would change to our favor ? But if instead a 50% penetration we would have only 14% penetration ?
I also wonder if in a double deck game with a 75% penetration is as worthy as in a single deck with a 50% penetration ?
And I also wonder how much it fades in an 8 deck game with only 50% penetration ? (does still have any considerable value ?)
3) Same dates and questions as at 2), but applied to "Fab 4 Surrenders". - How much value do they have for the above situations ?
1) Yes, he is correct. You can make it more complicated for more accuracy: Always stand on 16s containing a 4 or 5, but always hit any other 16. If you do that instead, you are now hitting almost half of multi-card 16s. However, I would never advise people to memorize such an esoteric rule. Stand on multicard 16s is as far as I would go.
2) The game would be in the dealer's favor in the situation you described. Generally, a game is considered to have a 0.5% edge and a counter is considered to have a 1% edge. As a general rule, deviations are worth 1/4 of your edge (1/5 for I18 only) and insurance is worth 1/3 of all I18 deviations combined--such that all deviations can get you to close to breaking even in a normal game. I cannot speak to how much deviations would be worth in your game.
An 8-deck game with 50% penetration and those rules would be completely useless under the situation you described; unplayable even with a bet spread.
3) Surrender has less value in a S17 game than in a H17 game. As for your game, I doubt anyone can calculate anything without a comprehensive simulation. Suffice it to say, you could very likely beat this single-deck game using flat betting and strategy deviations, but the extremely low profit margin demands a bet spread.
Quote: aceofspadesAccording to the Wizard's Appendix 18
The Wizard gives a more exacting examination of 3-card 16 vs 10 hands for an 8-deck game here, about halfway down the page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Stand is the best play if you apply one rule to all hands.
Quote: BleedingChipsSlowlyQuote: aceofspadesAccording to the Wizard's Appendix 18
The Wizard gives a more exacting examination of 3-card 16 vs 10 hands for an 8-deck game here, about halfway down the page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Stand is the best play if you apply one rule to all hands.
Would you recommend basing hitting or standing on each composition dependent hand as listed in that chart? Or just multicard 16s
Quote: aceofspadesQuote: BleedingChipsSlowlyQuote: aceofspadesAccording to the Wizard's Appendix 18
The Wizard gives a more exacting examination of 3-card 16 vs 10 hands for an 8-deck game here, about halfway down the page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Stand is the best play if you apply one rule to all hands.
Would you recommend basing hitting or standing on each composition dependent hand as listed in that chart? Or just multicard 16s
Look at the EV difference, do you really need consultation? If you count, hitting or standing is completely independent of your hand composition and is more accurate. What do you think BCS?
Quote: BizzyBQuote: aceofspadesQuote: BleedingChipsSlowlyQuote: aceofspadesAccording to the Wizard's Appendix 18
The Wizard gives a more exacting examination of 3-card 16 vs 10 hands for an 8-deck game here, about halfway down the page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Stand is the best play if you apply one rule to all hands.
Would you recommend basing hitting or standing on each composition dependent hand as listed in that chart? Or just multicard 16s
Look at the EV difference, do you really need consultation? If you count, hitting or standing is completely independent of your hand composition and is more accurate. What do you think BCS?
Asking without counting...purely composition dependent
Quote: aceofspadesQuote: BleedingChipsSlowlyQuote: aceofspadesAccording to the Wizard's Appendix 18
The Wizard gives a more exacting examination of 3-card 16 vs 10 hands for an 8-deck game here, about halfway down the page:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
Stand is the best play if you apply one rule to all hands.
Would you recommend basing hitting or standing on each composition dependent hand as listed in that chart? Or just multicard 16s
Stand, hit only if your hand has either a 6 or 10, but not if it also has a 5 in either case.
If you can remember that composition-dependent rule you will make the optimal play for each of the 15 possible hands.
aceofspades, yes, as a general rule you are right too, and I have read about 12 (10 value card + 2) is correct to hit only in games where the dealer stand on soft 17 and the number of decks are 6 or lower (so in a 8 deck basic strategy stand would be correct)
BizzyB, thanks ! Your points really does help me to create an educated idea about the correct responses. -- So you say, as a general rule, that Illustrious 18 + Fab 4 add up to about 0.5% player edge (maybe a bit more) in a single deck game with 50% penetration where the dealer stand on soft 17 and maybe slightly less than 0.5 to player edge if the dealer hit soft 17. - I am getting this correct?
(I am using MGP`s Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer - it does not take into account penetration - and for the single deck game with the rules I have shown it actually gives me a 0.001 player edge using basic strategy and for the 8 decks it give out a 0.504 house edge)
About simulations, yes I believe that would be the best way to figure this problem out, does anyone know a good application for this?
Quote: PlayHunterBleedingChipsSlowly, thanks ! That really help !
aceofspades, yes, as a general rule you are right too, and I have read about 12 (10 value card + 2) is correct to hit only in games where the dealer stand on soft 17 and the number of decks are 6 or lower (so in a 8 deck basic strategy stand would be correct)
BizzyB, thanks ! Your points really does help me to create an educated idea about the correct responses. -- So you say, as a general rule, that Illustrious 18 + Fab 4 add up to about 0.5% player edge (maybe a bit more) in a single deck game with 50% penetration where the dealer stand on soft 17 and maybe slightly less than 0.5 to player edge if the dealer hit soft 17. - I am getting this correct?
(I am using MGP`s Blackjack Combinatorial Analyzer - it does not take into account penetration - and for the single deck game with the rules I have shown it actually gives me a 0.001 player edge using basic strategy and for the 8 decks it give out a 0.504 house edge)
About simulations, yes I believe that would be the best way to figure this problem out, does anyone know a good application for this?
I would say the I18 take off .33% of the house edge, regardless of decks used. In the case of a single deck game where the house edge is less than .33%, then it could bump you into having an advantage. 50% penetration seems a little low for a single deck game, so this might take away from that by a tenth. This is just an educated guess, as you would need a simulation to figure it out--and no one really counts without some sort of bet spread.
Quote: BizzyBI would say the I18 take off .33% of the house edge, regardless of decks used. In the case of a single deck game where the house edge is less than .33%, then it could bump you into having an advantage. 50% penetration seems a little low for a single deck game, so this might take away from that by a tenth. This is just an educated guess, as you would need a simulation to figure it out--and no one really counts without some sort of bet spread.
OK, thanks now I understand it better. - But this ~ 0.33% to the player edge is just I18, or you have also included F4Sr into it ?
Quote: PlayHunterOK, thanks now I understand it better. - But this ~ 0.33% to the player edge is just I18, or you have also included F4Sr into it ?
LOL it's not exact, it's just an educated guess. The I18 plus Fab 4 or worth about 80% of all play deviations. All deviations are worth about 1/3 what you gain over the casino from using basic strategy. Typically, that gain is 1.5% (.5% is the house edge you need to overcome). So, I suppose I included the Fab 4, but by no means is it exact. It's a rough estimation.
