Keeping track of every card played in 6 decks

Quote: soxfan

I was thinking about some of the exotic side-bets on offer, like the super egalite, hey hey.

The point here is, it's not the tracking of the cards that's difficult, because they give you the pen and paper. So, anyone can do it. It's calculating the value of the multi-variable polynomials that's tough.

Maybe this guy can do it in his head, or maybe not, but it's a VERY different skill than keeping track of every card.

Quote: nominchul

No, guys, I'm telling you he doesn't know any advanced counting techniques. Obviously, if he can keep track of every card he can learn any counting system you put out there, but he's just never looked into learning a new one. He's not a professional black jack player, he's only ever done casual play and used a very simple counting system. So I'm asking you to tell us what counting system he should learn. Some of them seem irrelevant if you can keep track of every single card that has been played. Is Zen counting the way he should go? Orrr....? Maybe we should create a new counting method using his memorization technique?

I do not know whether you know how counting systems work, so I will give you a brief summary of how they work.
Most counting systems are Single parameter (you keep count of only one number) and each card rank has a value.
For example in Hi-Lo 2=+1 and 10=-1. Hi-low is the simplest (and most widely used) because values are +1,0,-1 only and is a Level 1 system.
More advanced systems are still Single Parameter but Level 2: ie card values are a +2,+1,0,-1, -2
And Level 3 (still single parameter) cards have values ranging from +3 to -3.
This single number produced from this systems is used for Betting (estimate your advantage and if its is in your favour you make a higher bet) and Playing decisions. Most gain (i think something like 80% of counting gain ) comes from the Betting decision.

Multiparameter systems (counting more than one number) are usually based on counting one number like the above systems which incorporate all or most of the cards and another number (or more) based on counting specific ranks (or a combination of ranks). Usually the second (or more) parameters are used for the play decisions.

BETTING DECISION EFFICIENCY
Hi-low and other systems have very high betting efficiency, ie Hi-Low has I think 97% Betting efficiency, so very little is added by using anything more complicated.

PLAYING DECISION EFFICIENCY
But most sinlge parameter systems have low playing efficiency. I think Hi-Low is around 70% Playing effiency. So multi parameter systems can increase this and even though playing decisions is a small part of the overall gain of a counter, this could still make a difference.

So you friend can keep track of all 10 ranks, thus can do a 10 paremeter system.
BUT that is the relatively easy part of a 10 parameter system.
Lets take a single marginal play decision of 16 v 10, which in Hi-low has an Index of 0.
If the count is >0 the player stands and <0 the player hits.
In a 10 paremeter system lets taking into account only indexes for each parameter of -2,-1,0,1,2 (ie 5 indexes).
He will need to create a table of 10^5= 10.000 different decisions for each combinaton of these paramaters and have a decision of Hit/Stand for each one.
Maybe such decision table can be simplified (because some combinations can be grouped) into only 1/10 of that say 1.000 decisions.
That's 1.000 decisions for a single hand.
If you take all the hands that there could be a change in decision (some hands like 20 v 6 is always a stand) this could be something like at least 100 different hands.
So you are talking conservatively about 100.000 different decisions in a table format to be memorized and be able to retrieve from memory in a second.
If your friend can do that also, then Wow!!!
And I do not think anyone has done these tables I am referring to, for the obvious reason that there was no demand for them as noone can actually memorise all that, except of course Rainman.

BUT, there should be other multiparameter systems that do not keep 10 different counts but fewer, say 3-4 counts with say a few hundred indices (combination of indices) that is more feasible.
So you should investigate first and find such systems and see whether the indices can be memorised.
And then try to apply all together.

Counting all 10 ranks separetely without knowing how to use that information is mostly useless in gaining an advantage in BJ.

Quote: AceTwo

I do not know whether you know how counting systems work, so I will give you a brief summary of how they work.
Most counting systems are Single parameter (you keep count of only one number) and each card rank has a value.
For example in Hi-Lo 2=+1 and 10=-1. Hi-low is the simplest (and most widely used) because values are +1,0,-1 only and is a Level 1 system.
More advanced systems are still Single Parameter but Level 2: ie card values are a +2,+1,0,-1, -2
And Level 3 (still single parameter) cards have values ranging from +3 to -3.
This single number produced from this systems is used for Betting (estimate your advantage and if its is in your favour you make a higher bet) and Playing decisions. Most gain (i think something like 80% of counting gain ) comes from the Betting decision.

Multiparameter systems (counting more than one number) are usually based on counting one number like the above systems which incorporate all or most of the cards and another number (or more) based on counting specific ranks (or a combination of ranks). Usually the second (or more) parameters are used for the play decisions.

BETTING DECISION EFFICIENCY
Hi-low and other systems have very high betting efficiency, ie Hi-Low has I think 97% Betting efficiency, so very little is added by using anything more complicated.

PLAYING DECISION EFFICIENCY
But most sinlge parameter systems have low playing efficiency. I think Hi-Low is around 70% Playing effiency. So multi parameter systems can increase this and even though playing decisions is a small part of the overall gain of a counter, this could still make a difference.

So you friend can keep track of all 10 ranks, thus can do a 10 paremeter system.
BUT that is the relatively easy part of a 10 parameter system.
Lets take a single marginal play decision of 16 v 10, which in Hi-low has an Index of 0.
If the count is >0 the player stands and <0 the player hits.
In a 10 paremeter system lets taking into account only indexes for each parameter of -2,-1,0,1,2 (ie 5 indexes).
He will need to create a table of 10^5= 10.000 different decisions for each combinaton of these paramaters and have a decision of Hit/Stand for each one.
Maybe such decision table can be simplified (because some combinations can be grouped) into only 1/10 of that say 1.000 decisions.
That's 1.000 decisions for a single hand.
If you take all the hands that there could be a change in decision (some hands like 20 v 6 is always a stand) this could be something like at least 100 different hands.
So you are talking conservatively about 100.000 different decisions in a table format to be memorized and be able to retrieve from memory in a second.
If your friend can do that also, then Wow!!!
And I do not think anyone has done these tables I am referring to, for the obvious reason that there was no demand for them as noone can actually memorise all that, except of course Rainman.

BUT, there should be other multiparameter systems that do not keep 10 different counts but fewer, say 3-4 counts with say a few hundred indices (combination of indices) that is more feasible.
So you should investigate first and find such systems and see whether the indices can be memorised.
And then try to apply all together.

Counting all 10 ranks separetely without knowing how to use that information is mostly useless in gaining an advantage in BJ.

His best bet to take advantage of his counting skills is to use it to advantage on side bets. Only bet the side bet when in the advantage. You get paid at a high multiple of your bet. Most places outside of Las Vegas or Atlantic City have no clue about side bet AP. Hell, place a small bet now and then when not in the Advantage and I can almost guarantee nobody will notice.


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

His best bet to take advantage of his counting skills is to use it to advantage on side bets. Only bet the side bet when in the advantage. You get paid at a high multiple of your bet. Most places outside of Las Vegas or Atlantic City have no clue about side bet AP. Hell, place a small bet now and then when not in the Advantage and I can almost guarantee nobody will notice.

The problem with this is that most casinos set a low maximum bet on these side bets.

I have played at a place that has lucky lucky. Yes, I can count and beat that game... except that the max bet is $25. I make more counting the main game, even though my percent edge is lower.

Realistically, keeping track of every card is useless for betting. Level one single-parameter systems have betting efficiencies in the 97% range, and level 2 systems make it to 99%. Even if you could raise this to 100%, it's just not worth that much. You've already got most of the value with your simple level-one system, and you don't need a superhuman memory to count it perfectly.

It is very useful for playing, though. Single-parameter counts are terrible for playing efficiency -- I think that the theoretical max is around 70%, and most of them are around 60%, or even below. The problem is that the cards that are important for one play are not the same as the cards that are important for another play, so you can't group cards together without giving up a lot. For example, if 7s are not weighted very highly, your decisions with 14vT will not be accurate. But for other plays, 7s might be completely irrelevant.

For this reason, I'd look for a game with fewer decks that still has decent penetration. The playing decisions are worth more with fewer decks, because you get more extreme deck compositions.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The problem with this is that most casinos set a low maximum bet on these side bets.

I have played at a place that has lucky lucky. Yes, I can count and beat that game... except that the max bet is $25. I make more counting the main game, even though my percent edge is lower.

Realistically, keeping track of every card is useless for betting. Level one single-parameter systems have betting efficiencies in the 97% range, and level 2 systems make it to 99%. Even if you could raise this to 100%, it's just not worth that much. You've already got most of the value with your simple level-one system, and you don't need a superhuman memory to count it perfectly.

It is very useful for playing, though. Single-parameter counts are terrible for playing efficiency -- I think that the theoretical max is around 70%, and most of them are around 60%, or even below. The problem is that the cards that are important for one play are not the same as the cards that are important for another play, so you can't group cards together without giving up a lot. For example, if 7s are not weighted very highly, your decisions with 14vT will not be accurate. But for other plays, 7s might be completely irrelevant.

For this reason, I'd look for a game with fewer decks that still has decent penetration. The playing decisions are worth more with fewer decks, because you get more extreme deck compositions.

I agree with you, but why can't you be doing both at the same time? You're counting the regular game, which you say is more advantageous and then taking advantage of the side bet when it comes around the 20-25% of the time it goes into your favor. A game like "Bust It" would seem like it would use the same type of count. 10's are favorable to the player in the main game and bust side bet. Same with Lucky Ladies and I'm sure some others.


ZCore13


ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

I agree with you, but why can't you be doing both at the same time? You're counting the regular game, which you say is more advantageous and then taking advantage of the side bet when it comes around the 20-25% of the time it goes into your favor. A game like "Bust It" would seem like it would use the same type of count. 10's are favorable to the player in the main game and bust side bet. Same with Lucky Ladies and I'm sure some others.

In lucky lucky, the main key cards are 6s, 7s, and 8s. So, no single-parameter count that is suitable for betting is going to be useful for lucky lucky.

Actually I think the best way for someone to use such excellent memory skills is via Shuffle Tracking and Ace Sequencing.
It needs though an additional skill, that of excellent visual memory, ie being accurate in estimating a deck within a few cards.
If he also has such skill that's the best way to use this skill.

Doing multi-parameter counts only increases the advantage a bit.

Also in some Side bet situations where you can bet high on the side bet as well.
One example (which I do not think exists anymore in the US) is Over/Under 13 side bet.
I used to play O/U 13 in some casinos which requires a different count.
I could do both counts (Hi-Lo and O/U) but it was very tiring for me and let me to make mistakes after a while.
So I used to start the shoe doing both counts and then after a while (say 1 deck) continue only with the one that looked promising.
With this pesron's memory skills, he could do both counts with no problem.