Keeping track of every card played in 6 decks
Quote: nominchulSo I have a friend (who's not autistic) that has always been able to do crazy memory feats. Yesterday I was curious how far I could push this talent so I spent 8 hours dealing practice hands to him and then stopping with about 25 cards left and asking him to tell me how many of each card remains. He's 100% accurate 70% of the time, and is never more than 2-3 cards off when he makes an error. I understand casinos don't go all the way through the 6 decks, but how much of an advantage can this strategy give him at a table? He can keep the count while doing this too, but it's not that useful since he knows exactly how many 10-point cards are remaining.
2% edge with proper betting. No significant usefulness over counting, unless he can predict the dealer's holecard with accuracy.
The biggest problem is that beyond counting can your friend also do spectacular feats of computation (multiplying and dividing to extreme precision) fast? To gain the true benefits of knowing exactly every card is being able to then compute the probabilities of busting on your hits vs. the likely improvements and similarly for the dealer. Doing all this requires large convolutions which are well beyond most any mortal abilities.
A better outlet might be finding seven card stud games with many players.
Quote: nominchulSo I have a friend (who's not autistic) that has always been able to do crazy memory feats. Yesterday I was curious how far I could push this talent so I spent 8 hours dealing practice hands to him and then stopping with about 25 cards left and asking him to tell me how many of each card remains. He's 100% accurate 70% of the time, and is never more than 2-3 cards off when he makes an error. I understand casinos don't go all the way through the 6 decks, but how much of an advantage can this strategy give him at a table? He can keep the count while doing this too, but it's not that useful since he knows exactly how many 10-point cards are remaining.
I read that someone tried this with a computer on single deck and got 3%. Uston maybe? For shoes I think it was don't bother.
Quote: 1BBI read that someone tried this with a computer on single deck and got 3%. Uston maybe? For shoes I think it was don't bother.
Yeah, with where cutpoints in a shoe are, the real value in perfect knowledge is unlikely to come into play. They would need to deal well into the 6th deck for it to matter often compared to normal "strong" counting system in play decisions.
However, could your friend memorize huge dependent strategy decisions tables also?
Great memory? Sure, I believe it.
Psychic ability? Nope, sorry..
Quote: nominchulOf course he doesn't know what the next card will be, but it's a much more educated guess when you know exactly how many of each card remains in the shoe.
Of course but that will not get you anywhere near 50%. It's no different than predicting the next card out of the deck (which is way more valuable than the hole card)
Quote: nominchulBut he's keeping the count at the same time. He's always kept track of the count, now in addition he knows exactly how many of each card has been played.
This is all fine and good. But the questions that need answering are these...
1.) What count method? Hi/Lo?, balanced zen?, Wong Halves?
2.) Insurance anyone? Gotta do it when indicated.
A few count methods handle the mixture of Play and Ins. well. Quite a few do not, with bias towards play.
Quote: nominchulSo I have a friend (who's not autistic) that has always been able to do crazy memory feats...
This is what Rain Man could do, but in the casino he just did a simple plus-minus count that even I can do. I think using a high-level count system and making educated adjustments based on deck distribution your friend would be dangerous at the table. For example, he has 13 vs. 10, and knows there is a significant shortage of 7's and 8's, which most counts don't track for. He stands, which buys him lots of "idiot credit," giving him longevity at the table.
I think he would also be really good at games like gin, hearts, and bridge.
I would think he would do far better with a different aspect of of blackjack then just counting if he cant truly do what I think your claiming. I would love to see this. Would you be open to someone watching?Quote: nominchulSo I have a friend (who's not autistic) that has always been able to do crazy memory feats. Yesterday I was curious how far I could push this talent so I spent 8 hours dealing practice hands to him and then stopping with about 25 cards left and asking him to tell me how many of each card remains. He's 100% accurate 70% of the time, and is never more than 2-3 cards off when he makes an error. I understand casinos don't go all the way through the 6 decks, but how much of an advantage can this strategy give him at a table? He can keep the count while doing this too, but it's not that useful since he knows exactly how many 10-point cards are remaining.
Quote: WizardThis is what Rain Man could do, but in the casino he just did a simple plus-minus count that even I can do. I think using a high-level count system and making educated adjustments based on deck distribution your friend would be dangerous at the table. For example, he has 13 vs. 10, and knows there is a significant shortage of 7's and 8's, which most counts don't track for. He stands, which buys him lots of "idiot credit," giving him longevity at the table.
I think he would also be really good at games like gin, hearts, and bridge.
He should also try 7-stud. There is a lot of deck depletion information in that game and being able to remember all of it would give you an advantage over more casual players.
Quote: PlayHunterThis is interesting, is his ability of remembering and counting things he saw a "gift" natural sharped eye and good memory born talent or this is the result of some various brain trainings ? - How old is your friend and when he discovered these abilities ?
I knew him 7 years ago, we were in military intelligence together learning korean for a year and a half. At that time, we could write a 70-digit number on the white board and he could memorize it within about a minute and repeat it forward and backward- but he could also hear any 3 digits from the middle and start from that point. It's not a photographic memory, it's just a natural ability to rapidly create stories or images in his mind to recall memories. After learning korean, I would only talk to him on the phone occasionally but last week I moved near him and he took me to the casino a couple times. He counted cards for me and it definitely helped a few times, but then 2 days ago (he's 39 now) I presented the idea to him of keeping track of every card. He had never thought of it before but he's doing it repeatedly and not only keeping track of the cards but I am dealing to 5 imaginary players plus him. He does the hitting/staying for all 6 of the spots on the table and places/splits/doubles bets on 2 of the spots on the table. (he could do the betting for all 6 but it seemed pointless) I offered to manage the payouts (As a real dealer would) because I thought he would need an extreme amount of concentration, but he can even manage his payouts flawlessly.
Quote: 98ClubsThis is all fine and good. But the questions that need answering are these...
1.) What count method? Hi/Lo?, balanced zen?, Wong Halves?
2.) Insurance anyone? Gotta do it when indicated.
A few count methods handle the mixture of Play and Ins. well. Quite a few do not, with bias towards play.
Right now he just keeps the count by counting the 2's 3's 4's 5's against the 10-point cards. I don't know ANYTHING about counting so I'm not sure what system that is, I think hi/low. But he would definitely be willing/able to learn a more accurate counting system.
Quote: AxelWolfI would think he would do far better with a different aspect of of blackjack then just counting if he cant truly do what I think your claiming. I would love to see this. Would you be open to someone watching?
I was thinking about posting a video yesterday, but we thought this might get him banned from certain casinos before ever getting to try his talent in actual play. Right now, it is NOT noticable what he's doing (unless he starts betting crazy) because he takes the normal amount of time to play and cannot be easily distracted. He took a phone call in the middle of a practice shoe yesterday and came back without losing track.
Quote: MathExtremistHe should also try 7-stud. There is a lot of deck depletion information in that game and being able to remember all of it would give you an advantage over more casual players.
Yeah, I think Bellagio usually runs 30/60 on the weekends. Foxwoods also runs 40/80 stud a lot I think. But more of a learning curve though to play.
If you post a video of just you and your gifted friend's hands + felt + cards doing this on a 6 deck (use a new YT acct with new username/email), I'd be quite interested in getting to know him a little better.
You can hide his identity easily. If he can do what you seem to be describing. As i said your time is being wasted on simple card counting. The potential is worth an incredible amount of money with very little risk. Feel free to PM me.Quote: nominchulI was thinking about posting a video yesterday, but we thought this might get him banned from certain casinos before ever getting to try his talent in actual play. Right now, it is NOT noticable what he's doing (unless he starts betting crazy) because he takes the normal amount of time to play and cannot be easily distracted. He took a phone call in the middle of a practice shoe yesterday and came back without losing track.
You would still have to learn the game and become good not to mention luck/variance would come into play, even with a computer sitting next you would not help much unless you were good at all the other aspects of poker. Math is probably the least valuable tool in poker.Quote: MathExtremistHe should also try 7-stud. There is a lot of deck depletion information in that game and being able to remember all of it would give you an advantage over more casual players.
Quote: AxelWolfYou can hide his identity easily. If he can do what you seem to be describing. As i said your time is being wasted on simple card counting. The potential is worth an incredible amount of money with very little risk. Feel free to PM me.
Can I post a video on this site? I'll try to make one tonight if he has the time. I know I can put it on youtube, but I'd rather post it to this site where there are people specifically interested in the topic.
Quote: nominchulRight now he just keeps the count by counting the 2's 3's 4's 5's against the 10-point cards. I don't know ANYTHING about counting so I'm not sure what system that is, I think hi/low. But he would definitely be willing/able to learn a more accurate counting system.
That is an incredibly weak counting system, much weaker than hi-lo.
Quote: BizzyBThat is an incredibly weak counting system, much weaker than hi-lo.
What system should he use?
Quote: nominchulI looked up 7-card stud but his skill doesn't seem as useful since there is only 1 deck being used. Seems like child's play compared to 6 decks. OH! But with 1 deck I bet he can also keep track of the suits! That might be a nifty additive. I'll ask him. Any other ideas for games this could be useful with? I don't know the various casino games at all. Private message me if there's an oddball casino near you where this could be extra useful.
I don't have his memory, but I play competition bridge, and knowing where all 52 cards are by rank and suit is required if you're going to be any good at it in the play of the hand. He should be able to track suits easily with his skills. And it will come in very handy; in fact, I assumed he already was until you said this above.
Quote: beachbumbabsI don't have his memory, but I play competition bridge, and knowing where all 52 cards are by rank and suit is required if you're going to be any good at it in the play of the hand. He should be able to track suits easily with his skills. And it will come in very handy; in fact, I assumed he already was until you said this above.
But only 1 deck is used in bridge? I've never played. Tonight or tomorrow I'll meetup with him and see how well he can do suits. He's never tried suits. In fact until 3 or 4 days ago he never even knew he could keep track of the cards played. I suggested it to him and he got it almost perfectly on his first try.
Quote: nominchulBut only 1 deck is used in bridge? I've never played. Tonight or tomorrow I'll meetup with him and see how well he can do suits. He's never tried suits. In fact until 3 or 4 days ago he never even knew he could keep track of the cards played. I suggested it to him and he got it almost perfectly on his first try.
Right, only 1 deck. I mention this, only because it might help him figure a way to differentiate, that the suits are ranked: clubs, then diamonds, are called Minor suits, and hearts, then spades, are called Major. I'm guessing it will take him less time to get the hang of it if he learns the 4 suits discretely than if he moves to 2 colors, then to 4 suits, because it's harder to un-learn something than it is to learn it for the first time, and he will make color errors when moving to suits if he takes that intermediate step. Just a guess, but backed up by some Human Factors science in a previous life.
Quote: 1BBYou posted the video twice so I'll answer here. If he can do what it says under the video I'm very impressed. What's the next step to relieve the casinos of some money? Quick! To make it easy, what was the Hi - Lo count when he stopped dealing? Running count is fine.
Yeah I should have had him write the count! Duh. Sorry, like I said this video was made at midnight so we were both pretty tired. He can tell you the count on every hand, as well as the number of any card remaining, but we figured if he wrote things out every hand it wouldn't be as impressive as keeping it all in his head the whole time. We're planning to make more videos, that was just to pique interest. Sorry for posting it twice, I figured it deserved its own thread.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'm confused. If he can keep track of every card played, why are you just using hi-lo? Anyone can keep track of the hi-lo count.
I think I just threw out Hi-Lo to keep it simple when I asked what the count was because not everyone here counts. Okay, what was the Zen count?
Quote: 1BBI think I just threw out Hi-Lo to keep it simple when I asked what the count was because not everyone here counts. Okay, what was the Zen count?
My point is, using a single-parameter count is not particularly difficult. Some guy counting down a shoe with a single-parameter count is not impressive. Anyone can do it with a bit of practice.
Admittedly there are single-parameter counts which have almost perfect betting correlation, but they are terrible for playing decisions. Super-accurate betting isn't that useful anyway, generally you just want to know whether your edge is "negative", "close to even", "small", medium", or "large", and bet accordingly. Knowing whether your edge is 2.1% or 2.2% isn't that useful.
Anyway, my point is, I don't want to know what the count is; I want to know whether he should hit his 14 against a dealer 10, or whether he will split his 33 against an 8 (I use these examples because the important cards for these decisions are ignored by most counting systems)
Quote: 1BBI think I just threw out Hi-Lo to keep it simple when I asked what the count was because not everyone here counts. Okay, what was the Zen count?
No, guys, I'm telling you he doesn't know any advanced counting techniques. Obviously, if he can keep track of every card he can learn any counting system you put out there, but he's just never looked into learning a new one. He's not a professional black jack player, he's only ever done casual play and used a very simple counting system. So I'm asking you to tell us what counting system he should learn. Some of them seem irrelevant if you can keep track of every single card that has been played. Is Zen counting the way he should go? Orrr....? Maybe we should create a new counting method using his memorization technique?
Quote: nominchulNo, guys, I'm telling you he doesn't know any advanced counting techniques. Obviously, if he can keep track of every card he can learn any counting system you put out there, but he's just never looked into learning a new one. He's not a professional black jack player, he's only ever done casual play and used a very simple counting system. So I'm asking you to tell us what counting system he should learn. Some of them seem irrelevant if you can keep track of every single card that has been played. Is Zen counting the way he should go? Orrr....? Maybe we should create a new counting method using his memorization technique?
I'm not going to have him go back to the video and get the count, that would be too easy. I'm going to have him learn whatever counting method you say and then make a new video where he puts the count.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceMy point is, using a single-parameter count is not particularly difficult. Some guy counting down a shoe with a single-parameter count is not impressive. Anyone can do it with a bit of practice.
Admittedly there are single-parameter counts which have almost perfect betting correlation, but they are terrible for playing decisions. Super-accurate betting isn't that useful anyway, generally you just want to know whether your edge is "negative", "close to even", "small", medium", or "large", and bet accordingly. Knowing whether your edge is 2.1% or 2.2% isn't that useful.
Anyway, my point is, I don't want to know what the count is; I want to know whether he should hit his 14 against a dealer 10, or whether he will split his 33 against an 8 (I use these examples because the important cards for these decisions are ignored by most counting systems)
Yes he can make almost instant decisions based on the mental image of which cards remain to make oddball decisions. Like doubling on 15 when the count is +20 and there are no 7s 8s or 9s left. Which wouldn't be a great idea when avoiding heat, but he can do it.
Quote: nominchulYes he can make almost instant decisions based on the mental image of which cards remain to make oddball decisions. Like doubling on 15 when the count is +20 and there are no 7s 8s or 9s left. Which wouldn't be a great idea when avoiding heat, but he can do it.
All the remaining 10's don't scare you?
Don't do this...
Quote: nominchulSo I have a friend (who's not autistic) that has always been able to do crazy memory feats. Yesterday I was curious how far I could push this talent so I spent 8 hours dealing practice hands to him and then stopping with about 25 cards left and asking him to tell me how many of each card remains. He's 100% accurate 70% of the time, and is never more than 2-3 cards off when he makes an error. I understand casinos don't go all the way through the 6 decks, but how much of an advantage can this strategy give him at a table? He can keep the count while doing this too, but it's not that useful since he knows exactly how many 10-point cards are remaining.
Yer friend's skill set could make card counting-tacking at the baccarat a VERY VIABLE enterprise. If he is as good as you say, I would be willing to back him, hey hey.
Quote: soxfanYer friend's skill set could make card counting-tacking at the baccarat a VERY VIABLE enterprise. If he is as good as you say, I would be willing to back him, hey hey.
Anyone can keep track of every card in baccarat. They give you the pen and paper and invite you to do so. It's even set up with little squares so keeping track of the number of each rank remaining is trivial.
Unfortunately profitable situations don't come up often enough to be worthwhile.
Quote: 1BBI think I just threw out Hi-Lo to keep it simple when I asked what the count was because not everyone here counts. Okay, what was the Zen count?
The Zen Count is a second level count developed by Arnold Snyder. It performs very well. I've often thought if I had to do it all over again I may well have gone with Snyder's Zen Count instead of Halves. Less work. And I'm not saying your friend should use it. It is, however, used by every top blackjack team out there.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAnyone can keep track of every card in baccarat. They give you the pen and paper and invite you to do so. It's even set up with little squares so keeping track of the number of each rank remaining is trivial.
Unfortunately profitable situations don't come up often enough to be worthwhile.
I was thinking about some of the exotic side-bets on offer, like the super egalite, hey hey.
