Counting Questions
My questions are;
1. Is this a reasonable bankroll for the amount I am risking. I know they say 100 big bets but since there is a larger spread I am using is it okay to use 50x bankroll
2. What are my chances of getting caught in Vegas and AC? Ive gone to Vegas once and only stayed at each casino for a few chutes (Or until I bet big and the floor noticed, then left at the end of the chute) I got backed off at 1 casino playing double deck. I didnt get backed off in Atlantic City but I heard they can't. So what can they do in AC to stop you from counting? Also I go about once a month to Vegas for a weekend and play about 50 hours at about 20 different casinos. I go once every few months to Atlantic City and play 50 hours at about 10 casinos
3. what is my expected rate per hour?
4. Any tips to avoid getting caught or with anything in general. I am somewhat new at this. I have been doing it for a few months and been moderately successful so far.
5. Are the strip/Boardwalk safe late at night to have this type of cash on me. I know this may sound dumb but does anybody have any stories that may deter me from carrying this amount.
6. If I am successful and up my bankroll what are my chances of getting caught using the same spread but all amounts doubled.
7. Should I be using a players card?
All the answers are much appreciated. Thanks!
No. You don't get more money on the table and reduce your bankroll. Your bankroll is insufficient. A 15k trip bankroll for a $300 max bet is fine but you are playing two hands. If I read you right, you will have a max bet of 2 x $300 on the table. Even if you use the 150% rule and bet 2 x $225 your bankroll is still low.
A few questions for you, James. How well do you know basic strategy? Don't be offended, hardly anyone knows it. If I rattle off questions about basic strategy for H17, S17 or double deck will you be able to answer them correctly without hesitation? Have you learned index play, back counting, wonging out? Do you play heads up? Why do you play two hands?
These are just some of the things to be factored in when answering all your questions. I hope you'll get some responses but these are legitimate gambling questions on a gambling forum so probably not.
Quote: 1BBA few questions for you, James. How well do you know basic strategy? Don't be offended, hardly anyone knows it.
Ain't that the truth. I'm constantly amazed at the number 'serious players' that don't know basic strategy differences for S17, H17, 2deck, 6deck.
Read, study, practice. Repeat.
Look into CVBJ and CVCX at qfit.com
Quote: 1BBThe answers to each question require lengthy responses and will vary depending on several conditions. I'll start the ball rolling with question 1.
No. You don't get more money on the table and reduce your bankroll. Your bankroll is insufficient. A 15k trip bankroll for a $300 max bet is fine but you are playing two hands. If I read you right, you will have a max bet of 2 x $300 on the table. Even if you use the 150% rule and bet 2 x $225 your bankroll is still low.
A few questions for you, James. How well do you know basic strategy? Don't be offended, hardly anyone knows it. If I rattle off questions about basic strategy for H17, S17 or double deck will you be able to answer them correctly without hesitation? Have you learned index play, back counting, wonging out? Do you play heads up? Why do you play two hands?
These are just some of the things to be factored in when answering all your questions. I hope you'll get some responses but these are legitimate gambling questions on a gambling forum so probably not.
I know basic strategy 100%,all index plays, and wonging out (I do this, just forgot to mention). I also know back counting but I do not do it often because I was under the impression it would draw heat. Is back-counting something I should be doing more of? I do not know much about the variations in strategy between H17,S17, double deck. I only stick to H17 with the exception of I played double deck twice before. I sometimes play heads up but obviosuly prefer to play with 1 or 2 other players (So wonging out is more efficient) On average I would say I play with 2 other players. I play 2 hands so that I can see more hands when I have a higher ev. What would be a more appropriate bankroll for my betting structure. Thanks for the input.
There is total bankroll and trip bankroll. The 100 big bets, I assume you mean max bets, is your total bankroll. Many pros prefer double that. Your trip bankroll is a portion of that based on rules, hours to be played and other things. It's figured on max bets and can be as little as 30 although I'd want more for those AC games. To keep it simple, let's consider playing one hand with a $300 max bet. The bankroll would be 9k for 30 max bets. You have 15k but you play two hands. Those $300 hands should be lowered to keep the variance the same.
Enter covariance into the search at the top of this page to find some helpful posts on it.
One last thing. It may look like a chute and chute certainly makes sense, but it is a shoe. I have actually used the word chute more than a few times for cover play.
Quote: JamesDean3I do not know much about the variations in strategy between H17,S17, double deck. I only stick to H17 with the exception of I played double deck twice before.
I believe the Wizard recommends that if you're only going to learn either H17 or S17 you should choose S17 basic strategy:
Quote:If you play a mixture of six-deck games, some where the dealer hits a soft 17, and some where he stands, and you only wish to memorize one strategy, I would recommend you memorize the one where the dealer stands on soft 17. The cost in errors due to playing the wrong strategy is 2.3 times higher playing a stand on soft 17 game, with the hit on 17 strategy, than vise versa.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/4-decks/
Quote: sodawaterIf you're going to put $15,000 in play counting BJ you really should take $100 of that and invest it into some basic books. All of your questions are answered in every basic BJ counting book. Stanford Wong, Arnold Snyder, Peter Griffin, Ian Anderson, Ken Uston, Lawrence Revere -- you should be familiar with all their work before risking $15,000.
Any Particular book you would recommend? I know a few of those guys have a bunch of books. Also I know some of those books may be outdated especially when talking about chances of getting caught or safety in counting cards
Quote: KeyserSozeAin't that the truth. I'm constantly amazed at the number 'serious players' that don't know basic strategy differences for S17, H17, 2deck, 6deck.
I have to admit, I don't remember the different strategies for all the different games, especially ones that I never play.
I can't remember the last time that I played in an H17 game, for example (it's been years). If I saw a good opportunity, I'd take a quick "bathroom break" and pull up the right strategy on WoO before I played. Once I see it, I'll have no trouble remembering it for a few hours while I play.
Quote: JamesDean3Any Particular book you would recommend? I know a few of those guys have a bunch of books. Also I know some of those books may be outdated especially when talking about chances of getting caught or safety in counting cards
If I had to pick three, I would go with Blackbelt in Blackjack by Snyder, Professional Blackjack by Wong, and Burning the Tables by Anderson.
You can read the Wizard's reviews at https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/book-reviews/blackjack/
Quote: JamesDean3I have a $15,000 bankroll and am using the HI-Lo system. With a basic bet of 10-15$ then using $25(True count of 1) $75 (Tc of 2) $150 (tc of 3) $200 (tc of 4) $250 (tc of 5) $300 (tc of 6). I play 2 hands but half the time when the count is 0 or below play only 1 hand.
My questions are;
1. Is this a reasonable bankroll for the amount I am risking. I know they say 100 big bets but since there is a larger spread I am using is it okay to use 50x bankroll
You'll be running a pretty big risk of ruin. So it depends on how important the money is to you. For a trip bankroll, pretty good. For a "total" bankroll, not great. You'll need some positive variance if you play a lot, or you'll go broke. How important is that $15K to you? Do you have a day job? Is it your life savings? etc.
Quote:
2. What are my chances of getting caught in Vegas and AC? Ive gone to Vegas once and only stayed at each casino for a few chutes (Or until I bet big and the floor noticed, then left at the end of the chute) I got backed off at 1 casino playing double deck. I didnt get backed off in Atlantic City but I heard they can't. So what can they do in AC to stop you from counting? Also I go about once a month to Vegas for a weekend and play about 50 hours at about 20 different casinos. I go once every few months to Atlantic City and play 50 hours at about 10 casinos
If you spread from $10 to 2 hands of $300, you will be noticed pretty quickly. That's a 60-to-1 spread. I'm not saying everyone has to follow the same spread; you should always bet as much as you can get away with in big counts. But 2 $300 bets at a $10 table is going to raise some eyebrows sooner or later in Vegas, especially anywhere off the strip.
I've only been backed off once in Vegas, and it was at a sawdust joint downtown. I was betting $25-$150 on a DD game with generally crappy rules but good pen. I just overstayed my welcome. With similar stakes, you will be okay if you hit-and-run. Keep your wits about you. If you camp out, you will likely draw some attention. You seem to have a good idea about this, a couple of shoes is more than enough. Especially if you retreat from your biggest bet at the end of a positive shoe all the way down to your base bet, that is a red flag.
I have no experience in AC, but if they suspect you are counting they will just cut the shoe in half or flat-bet you.
Quote:
3. what is my expected rate per hour?
RTFM. Buy the software at qfit.com, it will tell you your win rate given any circumstance. The books will give you an estimate based on rules, pen, game speed, etc.
Quote:
4. Any tips to avoid getting caught or with anything in general. I am somewhat new at this. I have been doing it for a few months and been moderately successful so far.
I'm not going to touch this one as I'm an amateur. Good luck.
Quote:
5. Are the strip/Boardwalk safe late at night to have this type of cash on me. I know this may sound dumb but does anybody have any stories that may deter me from carrying this amount.
I've never felt unsafe on the Strip, and I've carried similar amounts of money.
Quote:
6. If I am successful and up my bankroll what are my chances of getting caught using the same spread but all amounts doubled.
The bigger your bets, the better chance you'll get caught. Going up to max bet of 2x$600 would definitely be difficult. You need to work on your cover and act pretty hard at that point; or at least that is how it seems. I have never bet that big.
Quote:7. Should I be using a players card?
I would advise not, but it depends on a lot of variables. If the comps are valuable to you, then you have to put in some rated play. I almost never play rated blackjack, although it's pretty easy to play a break-even-ish game and stay under the radar. Basically you have to decide how important it is to you to have a clean name. Are the comps worth getting flyered with your real name?
Quote: JamesDean3This must be more of a basic blackjack forum as opposed to a counting forum. Seeing as how out of my original questions not 1 has been answered and all I got was people questioning if I know what I'm doing.
While this isn't an advantage player forum, there are more than a few advantage players here.
Why are some questioning if you know what you are doing? Because it seems you don't know what you're doing. People that are properly prepared to put a $15k bank in play don't ask these questions. As sodawater mentioned, these questions are answered in any decent blackjack book. The books that were recommended are all good. Don't worry about them being outdated.
After you read the books, grab a copy of Blackjack Attack 3. It's back in print soon. Doubt you're ready for it now, but it's a must have in your toolbox if you're serious.
We may not be giving you exactly what you want, but we are trying to help you bro. You ain't ready yet.
Hope I'm not being too harsh, but many people have hit the tables and bet serious cash before they were ready. I'm one of them.
Quote: JamesDean3
1. Is this a reasonable bankroll for the amount I am risking. I know they say 100 big bets but since there is a larger spread I am using is it okay to use 50x bankroll
2. What are my chances of getting caught in Vegas and AC? Ive gone to Vegas once and only stayed at each casino for a few chutes (Or until I bet big and the floor noticed, then left at the end of the chute) I got backed off at 1 casino playing double deck. I didnt get backed off in Atlantic City but I heard they can't. So what can they do in AC to stop you from counting? Also I go about once a month to Vegas for a weekend and play about 50 hours at about 20 different casinos. I go once every few months to Atlantic City and play 50 hours at about 10 casinos
3. what is my expected rate per hour?
4. Any tips to avoid getting caught or with anything in general. I am somewhat new at this. I have been doing it for a few months and been moderately successful so far.
5. Are the strip/Boardwalk safe late at night to have this type of cash on me. I know this may sound dumb but does anybody have any stories that may deter me from carrying this amount.
6. If I am successful and up my bankroll what are my chances of getting caught using the same spread but all amounts doubled.
7. Should I be using a players card?
All the answers are much appreciated. Thanks!
1) What's your goal? Win 10% of your bankroll? Double your bankroll? X amount of hands played? With those questions out of the way, 50x your bankroll with a 1-20 spread still has a high RoR then average. Also, do you have a full time job that you can use to replenish your bankroll? At what rate?
2) You already seem to know your limits. 50 hours at 20 casinos, so about 2 hours in each casino. A 1-20 spread is pretty big, so you can't stay at a table longer then an hour. Even less in my opinion.
3) There are winrate calculators online. Some free, some paid.
4) My tip for you is discipline. Know when to get up and leave. There are plenty of Blackjack tables in the world, you don't need to sit in the same one for hours. Also, busier the casino, the better. Even if you lose a session, get up and leave.
5) I have never felt threatened on the strip no matter what time of day. But, most rooms have a safe in there for a reason. Just act like an average Joe, don't act like a high roller and you should be fine. I heard stories where people will follow winners starting at the cage and mug them, but I have never witnessed it, nor have it happen to me.
6) If you go from red chip to green chip, the heat will rise, if you go up from green chip to black chip, more eyes on you. If you want to start upping your units, you have to reduce spread. You can't expect to 1-20 spread betting greens or blacks and avoid heat.
7) I avoided player's card when I started, but since about 3 years ago I use it. I really don't see a difference in terms of less/more back-offs or heat. The perks are great too.
Quote: JamesDean3I have a $15,000 bankroll and am using the HI-Lo system. With a basic bet of 10-15$ then using $25(True count of 1) $75 (Tc of 2) $150 (tc of 3) $200 (tc of 4) $250 (tc of 5) $300 (tc of 6). I play 2 hands but half the time when the count is 0 or below play only 1 hand.
My questions are;
1. Is this a reasonable bankroll for the amount I am risking. I know they say 100 big bets but since there is a larger spread I am using is it okay to use 50x bankroll
2. What are my chances of getting caught in Vegas and AC? Ive gone to Vegas once and only stayed at each casino for a few chutes (Or until I bet big and the floor noticed, then left at the end of the chute) I got backed off at 1 casino playing double deck. I didnt get backed off in Atlantic City but I heard they can't. So what can they do in AC to stop you from counting? Also I go about once a month to Vegas for a weekend and play about 50 hours at about 20 different casinos. I go once every few months to Atlantic City and play 50 hours at about 10 casinos
3. what is my expected rate per hour?
4. Any tips to avoid getting caught or with anything in general. I am somewhat new at this. I have been doing it for a few months and been moderately successful so far.
5. Are the strip/Boardwalk safe late at night to have this type of cash on me. I know this may sound dumb but does anybody have any stories that may deter me from carrying this amount.
6. If I am successful and up my bankroll what are my chances of getting caught using the same spread but all amounts doubled.
7. Should I be using a players card?
All the answers are much appreciated. Thanks!
1) No, you are betting way too high for your BR. I didn't look up the numbers, but your risk of ruin is probably around 25%. I'd guess you need about $50K to bet this way. Why are you increasing by $75 from plus 2 to plus $3, but $50 in other counts? It's not proportional.
2) In AC, they can shuffle every hand or flat bet you.
3) A lot, probably $75/hr if you are highly proficient. I'm not a numbers guy. But you're lucky if you don't lose it all in a swing because you're undercapitalized.
4) Lower your bets. I have a feeling you are less proficient than you think, because you would already know these things.
5) I heard of guys that carry all or a huge chunk of their bankroll with them whenever they play. I think this is dumb. They think this is smart. We all have reasons. I heard of a counter who got robbed of somewhere in the neighborhood of 50K cash.
6) The chances increase as you bet more. You can bet red chips and not be bothered with a 1-40 spread for months.
7) Really depends. Card gets you valuable comps. Card also allows complete strangers to identify you as a known counter. No point in not using a card if you go to the same place all the time and everyone recognizes you. Not a good idea to use a card if you go to a place that is 99% sure you are a counter, during a shift that has never seen you before.
Blackbelt in Blackjack by Syder. Holy shit...it is a good book. From reading your posts my guess is that this is where you should first turn.
I've also read Revere, Blackwood, and Wong. I think all their books are fine, but I find Snyder more to my taste. I read tons of stuff, so my approach was to consume everything (including many online sources) and then digest. If you want to pick just one: I would go with Snyder; but as long as you pick someone reputable and practice tons you will be fine.
Penetration of decks and heat from personel, those are what matter (IMO).
As I said, I am not a counter, and don't know the RoR calculation for this. But it has to be better for you to play the best game when you have the funds to do it.
Quote: beachbumbabsI am not a counter. But I don't understand why you handicap yourself by playing a 10 H17 game with your max bet at 300 x 2, when you could play S17 at a 25 min game? If you're willing to use a 1-60 spread, why not use a lower spread (1-24) and get the advantage of the S17? The lower spread would also help you mask your counting activity.
As I said, I am not a counter, and don't know the RoR calculation for this. But it has to be better for you to play the best game when you have the funds to do it.
When using a 1 to 60 spread, please keep your coat on. Because you will soon be on the outside looking in !
And NO Babs that was not me looking in your bedroom window.
Quote: endermikeI love the Big Book of Blackjack by Snyder. It covers more than just advantage play (history of the game for instance). I found it interesting and entertaining. I think playing other games can be good camo, and his digressions into those other games can be helpful.
Blackbelt in Blackjack by Syder. Holy shit...it is a good book. From reading your posts my guess is that this is where you should first turn.
I've also read Revere, Blackwood, and Wong. I think all their books are fine, but I find Snyder more to my taste. I read tons of stuff, so my approach was to consume everything (including many online sources) and then digest. If you want to pick just one: I would go with Snyder; but as long as you pick someone reputable and practice tons you will be fine.
Penetration of decks and heat from personel, those are what matter (IMO).
I'd like to suggest Blackjack Attack: Playing The Pros' Way, 3rd ed. by Don Schlesinger. It's been out of stock for some time and is finally available once again. I have a copy but am thinking of ordering another as a backup. This book is not for beginners but I believe it is a must for any serious player or one who may become serious. Get it while you can.
Quote: endermikePenetration of decks and heat from personel, those are what matter (IMO).
This is really good advice, and too often overlooked, I think.
I find the game of blackjack extraordinarily interesting, and I like looking into a lot of the subtleties of the game, but (particularly in shoe games) none of these are worth that much.
If you will be playing 6 or 8 decks, find the game with the best penetration and the least heat. Don't worry too much about rules (other than 6:5 -- that one is just too expensive to overcome). Obviously if all else is equal play the best game you can find, but an extra half-deck of penetration is worth much more than the difference between H17 and S17 (it's not even remotely close).
Then, just play a simple count that you can play without making mistakes and without making it obvious that you are counting. The less you have to think, the better -- even if you can do it without making mistakes, you don't want it to be obvious that you are making calculations. There are lots of very simple counts that have very high betting correlations, and that's what gets the money in shoe games.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis is really good advice, and too often overlooked, I think.
I find the game of blackjack extraordinarily interesting, and I like looking into a lot of the subtleties of the game, but (particularly in shoe games) none of these are worth that much.
If you will be playing 6 or 8 decks, find the game with the best penetration and the least heat. Don't worry too much about rules (other than 6:5 -- that one is just too expensive to overcome). Obviously if all else is equal play the best game you can find, but an extra half-deck of penetration is worth much more than the difference between H17 and S17 (it's not even remotely close).
Then, just play a simple count that you can play without making mistakes and without making it obvious that you are counting. The less you have to think, the better -- even if you can do it without making mistakes, you don't want it to be obvious that you are making calculations. There are lots of very simple counts that have very high betting correlations, and that's what gets the money in shoe games.
I was just using the Snyder Profitiblity Index to compare some games. First time I ever used this. According to this, H17 is about the same as 10% penetration in multideck. Surrender is about 5%...both rules together is worth the same as cutting off an extra deck. The most important factor, by far, is how many players are at the table. When playing a 2D game with poor rules and 75% penetration, it is a very profitable game when heads up...becomes a waste of time at a full table. It is pretty clear that it is more profitable to play in an H17 8D game with poor penetration head's up with a 1-2 spread, than it is to play S17, LS with deep penetration at a full table with a 1-12 spread. Heads up at a single-deck game w/a 1-2 spread where you can only double 10 and 11 and the dealer hits S17 is a 'winner'.
I found all this pretty suspicious. Does anyone think the SPI is not a good guide to follow?
Quote: BizzyBI was just using the Snyder Profitiblity Index to compare some games. First time I ever used this. According to this, H17 is about the same as 10% penetration in multideck. Surrender is about 5%...both rules together is worth the same as cutting off an extra deck. The most important factor, by far, is how many players are at the table. When playing a 2D game with poor rules and 75% penetration, it is a very profitable game when heads up...becomes a waste of time at a full table. It is pretty clear that it is more profitable to play in an H17 8D game with poor penetration head's up with a 1-2 spread, than it is to play S17, LS with deep penetration at a full table with a 1-12 spread.
I found all this pretty suspicious. Does anyone think the SPI is not a good guide to follow?
I have not looked at this; I'll take a look. I'm not quite sure what it means though. The extra penetration is worth a lot more as you go deeper.
IIRC, Andersen's book (Burning the tables) claimed that in a 6-deck game with reasonable rules, a game that deals 5/6 decks gives you 3x the win rate as the same game that deals 4.5/6. There is no way that S17 gives you that much of an advantage over H17 (does it?)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI have not looked at this; I'll take a look. I'm not quite sure what it means though. The extra penetration is worth a lot more as you go deeper.
IIRC, Andersen's book (Burning the tables) claimed that in a 6-deck game with reasonable rules, a game that deals 5/6 decks gives you 3x the win rate as the same game that deals 4.5/6. There is no way that S17 gives you that much of an advantage over H17 (does it?)
I don't think so, but that's what his SPI pretty much says. I went to it to help me determine playability of some games. You use it to score games on a point system. I'm using to find all sorts of things that make absolutely no sense. This guy is supposed to be one of the foremost experts, but I'm thinking this is a major screwup on his part. If you look at it, tell me if you agree that his SPI is useless. I always thought that surrender meant more to a counter than S17.
Quote: JamesDean3Any Particular book you would recommend? I know a few of those guys have a bunch of books. Also I know some of those books may be outdated especially when talking about chances of getting caught or safety in counting cards
Yes, "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book."
And all the books and authors mentioned are outdated regarding current playing conditions; that won't be found in any book.
Quote: GreasyjohnYes, "The World's Greatest Blackjack Book."
And all the books and authors mentioned are outdated regarding current playing conditions; that won't be found in any book.
Wait, GJ, you don't think WGBB is outdated?. LOL. BTW, WGBB was one of the two books I purchased at a garage sale for $1 each that first peaked my interest in card counting advantage play. :)
One of the problems with newer players starting out today is that they are still reading Wong, Revere, Snyder and all the other books from the 70's, 80's 90's. That's ok, these books are good to read for a foundation. The mathematics still works, BUT in this day and age, with higher house edges to overcome, and more crappy neutral and negative counts to get through to get to the less frequent really good counts, you need to 'adjust' the attack and approach.
Mainly I am talking about quicker ramps and redefining unit to not mean the minimum wager. Minimum wager should be a fraction of the unit. In other words, while I forget the exact wording Wong talks about a standard unit of $10, which also serves as his minimum wager. He raises by that same amount, $20, $30, $40, $50, $60 at each incremental true count. That is too slow of a ramp and the incremental raising of minimum bet doesn't work well with today's conditions.
There are a couple books that I have come across that were written with Today's worse conditions in mind that I would recommend. The first is a not too well known, "Advanced Tactics in casino Advantage Play" by Abram Alexander. This is an absolute goldmine in my opinion. It is no coincidence that my own style and approach closely mirrors Mr Alexander's approach. Knowing him from a website that I participated on, in hindsight, I think his views rubbed off on me before I actually read his book.
Second is Norm Wattenberger's "Modern Blackjack" Which is available for free download on his website (don't know if I can post website). Norm's book is a great compliment to his outstanding software products, which are a must for any serious blackjack player today. But, I must caution that Norm also runs a blackjack forum associated with that website, which in recent months has turned in to crap. "Voodoo" is the term that was recently used on another website to describe the direction that the forum has gone and I think that is a fair way of putting it. There is just real bad advice being given out by people, who's qualifications are suspect at best. Stay away from the forum part.
Quote: kewlj...There is just real bad advice being given out by people, who's qualifications are suspect at best. Stay away from the forum part.
I read the free forum there a lot and IMHO, these "experts" spend hardly any time in a casino let alone playing any games in them. Way too much posting. Blackjack is a grind counting and you need to put in hours upon hours of play time to make serious money at it. Not gonna happen posting on that site day and night.
I'll put it this way. There's a lot of book knowledge there, but not much street knowledge if you know what I mean.
Quote: BizzyBI was just using the Snyder Profitiblity Index to compare some games. First time I ever used this.
(...)
Does anyone think the SPI is not a good guide to follow?
It was always meant to be a quick way of comparing games, and not as accurate as a full simulation or analysis. Pretty sure this was explained in Blackbelt.
